Input-Output Model and Computable General Equilibrium Model
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16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 1 Input-Output Model and Input-Output Model and Computable General Equilibrium Computable General Equilibrium Model Model Saipin Cintakulchai
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Input-Output Model and Computable General Equilibrium Model. Saipin Cintakulchai. แบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต Input-Output Model. 1. แนวคิดและประโยชน์ของแบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต 2 . ข้อจำกัดของแบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต. Theoretical Structure. Solution Techniques. Data. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Input-Output Model and Computable General Equilibrium Model
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 1
Input-Output Model andInput-Output Model and
Computable General Equilibrium Computable General Equilibrium
ModelModel
Saipin Cintakulchai
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 2
แบบจำ��ลองปัจำจำ�ยก�รผล�ตและผลผล�ต
- Input Output Model
1. แนวคิ�ดและปัระโยชน�ของแบบจำ��ลองปัจำจำ�ยก�รผล�ตและผลผล�ต
2. ข�อจำ��ก�ดของแบบจำ��ลองปัจำจำ�ยก�รผล�ตและผลผล�ต
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 3
The Models
Vehicles forPractical Policy Analysis
DataSolution Techniqu
es
Theoretical
Structure
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 4
ก�รสร��งแบบจำ��ลองก�รสร��งแบบจำ��ลอง
เข�ยนให้�อย"#ในร"ปัสมก�ร
ห้�คิ��ตอบ
เล%อกต�วแปัร
อธิ�บายความหมายของค�าตอบที่��ได้�
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 5
HouseholdsIndustries
Product markets
Final goods
Inputs Outputs
Labor
:- shoes
:- shoes
:- machine, leather, rubber, etc.
Simple Input-Output ModelSimple Input-Output Modelคิ��ถ�ม: แต#ละอ'ตส�ห้กรรมคิวรผล�ตส�นคิ��จำ��นวนเท่#�ใด
จำ)งเพี�ยงพีอก�บคิว�มต�องก�รรวมในระบบเศรษฐก�จำ
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 6
Input - Output ModelInput - Output Model
ว�ตถ'ปัระสงคิ� : ว�งแผนด��นก�รผล�ตข�อสมม'ต�
1. ผ"�ผล�ตแต#ละร�ยผล�ตส�นคิ��ชน�ดเด�ยว
2 . ส�ดส#วนก�รใช�ปัจำจำ�ยก�รผล�ตม�คิ#�คิงท่�.
3 . ม�เท่คิโนโลย�ก�รผล�ตแบบ Constant returns to scale
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 7
Simple Input - Output Table
Goods Industries Final DemandGoods Industries Final Demand
11
22
X11
X21
X1H
X2H
X1
X2
LaborLabor
CostCost
L1
C1
Equilibrium : X1 = C1
11 22
and X2 = C2
X12
X22
L2
C2
Total value Total value of outputof output
Unit: Baht
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 8
Input - Output Model
X1 = X11 + X12 + X1H --- (1)
X2 = X21 + X22 + X2H --- (2)
ก��ห้นดให้� aij = Xij / Cj ; i, j = 1, 2
X1 = a11 X1 + a12 X2 + X1H --- (1-a)
X2 = a21 X1 + a22 X2 + X2H --- (2-a)
Xjด�งน�/น Xij = aij Xj
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 9
จำ�ดร"ปัสมก�รให้ม# จำะได�
(1 - a11 ) X1 - a12 X2 = X1H ---(1-b)
- a21 X1 + (1 - a22 ) X2 = X2H ---(2-b) ห้ร%อในร"ปัของ matrix : (I - A) X = D
A =a11 a12
a21 a22
X = X1
X2
D = X1H
X2H
คิ��ตอบ : X = (I - A) -1 D
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 10
InputInput--Output TableOutput Table (Closed Economy)
Goods Industries Final Demand Total OutputsGoods Industries Final Demand Total Outputs
1122 .. ..nn
X11
X21
. .Xn1
X1H
X2H
. .XnH
X1
X2
. .Xn
primaryprimaryinputsinputs
CostsCosts
L1 …..Ln
C1 …..Cn
Equilibrium : Xi = Ci
X1G
X2G
. .XnG
…..X1n
…..X2n
. .…..Xnn
11 ..... . nn
Unit: Baht
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 11
A =
a11 a12 … a1n
a21 a22 … a2n
an1 an2 … ann
D =
X1
X2
.
.
.
Xn
X =
คิ��ตอบ : X = (I - A) -1 D
+X1G
+X2G
.
.
.
+XnG
X1H
X2H
.
.
.
XnH
aij = Xij / Xj ; i, j = 1, 2, … , n
เข�ยนในร"ปั matrix ได�ว#� : (I - A) X = D
เม%.อ
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 12
X1E
X2E
..XnE
EXEX
InputInput--Output TableOutput Table (Open Economy)
Goods Industries Final Demand Total OutputsGoods Industries Final Demand Total Outputs
1122....nn
X11
X21
..Xn1
X1H
X2H
..XnH
X1
X2
..Xn
primaryprimaryinputsinputs
CostsCosts
L1 …..Ln
C1 …..Cn
Equilibrium : Xi = Ci
X1G
X2G
..XnG
…..X1n
…..X2n
..…..Xnn
11 ..... . nn
1122....nn
M11
M21
..Mn1
M1H
M2H
..MnH
M1
M2
..Mn
M1G
M2G
..MnG
…..M1n
…..M2n
..…..Mnn
00..0
Domestic
Imports
HH HH GG
Unit: Baht
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 13
ก�รปัระย'กต�ใช�แบบจำ��ลองปัจำจำ�ยก�รผล�ต
และผลผล�ต
1. Production Planning
2. Output Multiplier
3. Linkage Effect
จำ�ก : X = (I - A) -1 D
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 14
ข�อจำ��ก�ดของ Input - Output Model
I-O model ถ%อว#�ม�ท่ร�พีย�กรอย"#ไม#จำ��ก�ด I-O model ก��ห้นดให้� final demand เปั1น
ต�วแปัรภ�ยนอกซึ่).งในบ�งกรณี�อ�จำไม#ถ"กต�อง
I-O model ไม#ม�ก�รอธิ�บ�ยคิว�มเช%.อมโยงระห้ว#�งร�ยร�บและร�ยจำ#�ยของภ�คิคิร�วเร%อน
ไม#ได�แยกว�เคิร�ะห้�ผลกระท่บด��นร�คิ�และปัร�ม�ณีออกจำ�กก�น
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 15
OverviewOverview
Objective and Advantages of a CGE model
How many types of CGE model are there?
Structure of a CGE model
Database for a CGE model
Limitations of a CGE model
Computable General Equilibrium Model Computable General Equilibrium Model
or CGE Modelor CGE Model
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 16
Major objectives Major objectives
of a CGE modelof a CGE model
Economic PlanningEconomic Planning Policy AnalysisPolicy Analysis
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 17
Advantages of a CGE modelAdvantages of a CGE model
multisector planning model resource allocation analysis income distribution analysis etc.
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 18
A CGE ModelA CGE Model
incorporates market mechanisms
presents variables in terms of price and quantity
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 19
How many types of CGE model are there?
Single - Country Model Multiple - Country Model
Static Model Dynamic Model
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 20
Structure of a CGE modelStructure of a CGE model
Production Consumption Income Equilibrium conditions
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 21
Flows of goods in a simple CGE modelFlows of goods in a simple CGE model
industries
Domestic market
households government
Foreign market
labour capital
inputs outputs
exports
imports
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 22
Example : a simple CGE model
closed economy
two sectors with perfect competition
two goods (X1, X2) and two factors
(K, L)
one household
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 23
Structure of a CGE model Production Consumption Income
Equilibrium Market clearing conditions Zero-profit conditions
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 24
Production structureProduction structure
Industries
Good 1 Good 2
Intermediate inputs Primary inputs
labour capital
Domestic products Exports
Domestic products
Imports
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 25
Production Block
Problem :
Minimize costs of production
Min Ci = P1X1i + P2X2i + WLi + RKi
subject to production function
Xi = Xi ( X1i, X2i, Li, Ki )
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 26
Solution : Demand for inputs
X1i = f1i ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)
X2i = f2i ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)
Li = fLi ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)
Ki = fKi ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)
8 equations and 14 variables
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 27
Household Demand and Its IncomeHousehold Demand and Its Income
Total Income
LabourIncome
CapitalIncome
Consumption
Income Taxes
Savings
Good 1 Good 2
Domestic products
Imports
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 28
Consumption Block
Problem :
Maximize Utility
Max U = U ( X1H, X2H )
subject to budget constraint
M = P1X1H + P2X2H
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 29
Solution : Demand for goods
X1H = f1H ( P1, P2, M )
X2H = f2H ( P1, P2, M )
whereM = W L + R K
3 equations and 5 variables (new)
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 30
Profit Functions
Zero - Profit Assumption
TRi = TCi
or PiXi = P1X1i + P2X2i + WLi + RKi
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 31
Solution : Price relationship
Pi = P1( X1i / Xi ) + P2( X2i / Xi )
+ w ( Li / Xi ) + r( Ki / Xi )
or Pi = a1i P1 + a2i P2 + aLi W + aKi R
2 equations
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 32
Market Clearing: Equilibrium
Product markets : X i = X i 1 + X i 2 + X i H
Factor markets : L = L 1 + L 2
K = K 1 + K 2
4 equations
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 33
Database for a CGE model
Input-Output Data
Socioeconomic Data
Behavioral Parameters
etc.
16 Jan 2008 I-O Model and CGE Model 34
Limitations of a CGE modelLimitations of a CGE model
data: not up to date,
inconsistency
difficult to know whether the
model is correct
computation capacity
