IIHS

A Data Approach to Highway Safety:What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

Susan Ferguson Ph.D

GHSA Annual MeetingSeptember 20, 2003 Oklahoma City, OK

IIHS

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)

Nonprofit research and communications organization founded in 1959

IIHS mission to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce property damage in crashes

Research goal to determine what works and what doesn’t to improve highway safety

Funded entirely by automobile insurance companies

Nonprofit research and communications organization founded in 1959

IIHS mission to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce property damage in crashes

Research goal to determine what works and what doesn’t to improve highway safety

Funded entirely by automobile insurance companies

IIHS

Ability to translate research findings into practice is critical in reducing losses

Need strong communications component

Get research findings out to wide audience in non- technical language

Providing consumers with relevant and timely safety information

Serve on research and policy committees

Need strong communications component

Get research findings out to wide audience in non- technical language

Providing consumers with relevant and timely safety information

Serve on research and policy committees

IIHS

Haddon matrix

HumanVehicles & equipment

environment

Pre-crash

Crash

Post-crash

Losses

IIHS

GHSA and IIHS share common goals

IIHS’s mission is to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce property damage in crashes

GHSA’s mission is to provide leadership in the development of national policy to ensure effective highway safety programs

We provide the research to help you do your job

Worked successfully together on a number of issues including, airbag safety, speed, cell phones, occupant restraint use

IIHS’s mission is to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce property damage in crashes

GHSA’s mission is to provide leadership in the development of national policy to ensure effective highway safety programs

We provide the research to help you do your job

Worked successfully together on a number of issues including, airbag safety, speed, cell phones, occupant restraint use

IIHS

Trends in driver death ratesTrends in driver death rates

IIHS

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1985

year

90 200095

1-3-year-old vehicles

vehicles >1 year old

Driver death rates per million registered vehiclesBy vehicle age and calendar year

IIHS

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1985

year

90 200095

1-3-year-old vehicles

vehicles >1 year old

Driver death rates per million registered vehiclesBy vehicle age and calendar year

IIHS

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Driver death rates per registered vehicleActual

1985 90 200095

year

IIHS

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Driver death rates per registered vehicleActual vs. hypothetical 1985 fleet

hypothetical

actual

1985 90 200095

year

IIHS

Driver behavior priority areas

Alcohol-impaired driving

Belt use

Speeding

Motorcycle riders

Driver distraction

IIHS

Alcohol-impaired driving

IIHS

0

10

20

30

40

50

1982

Percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers with BACs at or above 0.08 percent 1982-2005

85 90 95 2000 05

IIHS

Three goals

Deter potential offenders

Catch those who offend

Sanction those you catch

Deter potential offenders

Catch those who offend

Sanction those you catch

IIHS

Assessment of checkpoint effectivenessCenters for Disease Control, 2002

number of studies

median decrease in alcohol-related

crashes

random breath test checkpoints

12 18%

sobriety checkpoints

11 20%

IIHS

Traditional sobriety checkpoints

IIHS

Low manpower checkpoint in Greenbrier County

IIHS

Percent of drivers with BACs > 0.05 percentWeekend nights, spring 2003 and 2004

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Before BeforeDuring During

Study counties Comparison counties

IIHS

MADD International Technology Symposium

MADD will work with states to increase use of breath alcohol ignition devices for convicted DWI offenders

Blue Ribbon Panel for Development of Advanced Alcohol Detection Technology

– cooperative research spearheaded by MADD, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, IIHS, and NHTSA to develop advanced alcohol detection system

– IIHS to chair

Build public support for vehicle-based approach

IIHS

Safety belt useSafety belt use

IIHS

Driver belt use in United States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1981 83 8684 88 9190 94 9896 99 012000 02 03 04 05

20%

40%

60%

80%

year

IIHS

Percent belt use reported by states, 2005

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

90-95

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54 NH*

MS

AR, KS, KY, MA, SD

FL, WI, WY**

AK, CO, ID, ME, MO, NE, ND, OH, RI LA

UT, VT, WV

AZ, NV

number of states

DC, IL, IA, NJ, NY, NC

MN, MT, PA, VA

*estimated rates from 2003

SC. TN

AL, CT, DE, IN, OK

CA, GA, HI, MD, MI, NM, OR, TX, WA

**2004 data

secondary

no law

primary

IIHS

Strong laws and publicized enforcement

Equipping vehicles with belt reminder systems

What works to increase belt use

IIHS

Intermittent flashing lights and sometimes chimes for extended period to prompt unbelted drivers

About 85% of 2006 models have some kind of belt reminder system

Ford system increased driver belt use from 71% to 76%; Honda system from 84% to 90%

Belt reminder systems

IIHS

Speed matters

IIHS

About one-third of all fatalities occur in speeding-related crashes

IIHS

Relation of speed to crashes and crash severity

Increases in speed are associated with increases in crashes; reductions in speed are associated with reductions in crashes

The risk of being injured or killed in a crash increases with increasing speed

IIHS

Enforcement is keyEnforcement is key

IIHS

Speed cameras are effective but underutilized

Proven countermeasure against speed violations and crashes

Widely used throughout the world

Proven countermeasure against speed violations and crashes

Widely used throughout the world

IIHS

Evaluation of speed cameras in Washington, D.C. Percent change at camera sites relative to control 6 months after enforcement

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%average speed

proportion exceeding speed limit by 11+ mph

IIHS

Effects of speed cameras on speeds and crashes Cochrane review, 2006

Effects on speed Reductions of 50-65% in the proportion of speeding

vehicles traveling 15km/h or more above the speed limit

Effects on crashes Reductions in injury crashes from 8–46%;

40–45% for serious and fatal crashes

Effects on speed Reductions of 50-65% in the proportion of speeding

vehicles traveling 15km/h or more above the speed limit

Effects on crashes Reductions in injury crashes from 8–46%;

40–45% for serious and fatal crashes

IIHS

Conclusions

Speed is an important factor in crash likelihood, as well as risk of injury and death

Strong enforcement is key

Automated speed enforcement is the way forward and needs to be used more widely in the U.S.

IIHS

Motorcycles

IIHS

Motorcyclist deaths By age, 1975-2005

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05

30-39 years old

< 29 years old

> 40 years old

IIHS

Helmet use laws in U.S. statesJanuary 1997 compared with March 2005

MD

DE

DC

MA

OR

RINJ

NH

ME

PA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

OH

MI

INIL

WI

IA

MO

LA

NM

CO

SD

ID

CA

WA

TN

VT

MS

MT ND

NV

AZ

UT

WY

NE

KS

OK

TX

AR

MN

AL

KY VA

NY

CT

AK

HI

universal law

no law or limited law

Helmet use laws in U.S. statesJanuary 1997

IIHS

States with universal helmet laws

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1991: Incentive grants for helmet and safety belt laws

1976: Highway Safety Act removed authority to withhold funds from

states without helmet laws

1995: Grants removed

1967: Helmet laws required for states to qualify for federal highway funds

1966 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

IIHS

Observed motorcycle helmet use in U.S. (percent)NHTSA

0

20

40

60

80

100

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005

DOT-compliant

non-compliant

any helmet

IIHS

Motorcycle helmet laws

Helmet use is virtually 100% in states with universal laws versus about 50% in other states

Motorcyclist deaths and injuries decline when helmet use is mandated and increase after laws are weakened or repealed

In Florida motorcyclist deaths per crash increased 25 percent after the law was weakened in 2000

Helmet use is virtually 100% in states with universal laws versus about 50% in other states

Motorcyclist deaths and injuries decline when helmet use is mandated and increase after laws are weakened or repealed

In Florida motorcyclist deaths per crash increased 25 percent after the law was weakened in 2000

IIHS

Driver distractions

IIHS

What is driver distraction?

"A grave problem that developed in New Hampshire… now has all the motor-vehicle commissioners of the eastern states in a wax. It's whether radios should be allowed on cars. Some states don't want to permit them at all - say they distract the driver and disturb the peace…The commissioner (of Massachusetts) thinks the things should be shut off while you are driving…The whole problem is getting very complex, but the upshot is that you'll probably be allowed to take your radio anywhere, with possibly some restriction on the times when you can play it."(Nicholas Trott in 1930 as cited by Goodman et al., 1997)

IIHS

If you build it they will comeIf you build it they will come

IIHS

Vehicles have built-in hands free technology, like OnStar, with voice activation. Other

wireless technologies, such as Bluetooth, eliminate the need for wired connections

between cell phones and other electronic products

and accessories.

Bluetooth

OnStar

IIHS

Other potentially distracting in-vehicle

technologies and gadgets are increasingly available.

navigation systemnavigation system

navigation systemnavigation system

IIHS

Automotive News, May 1, 2006

IIHS

The mobile lifestyle is alive and wellThe mobile lifestyle is alive and well

IIHS

Percent of drivers observed talking on hand-held phones, 2000-2005 NHTSA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2002 2004 2005

IIHS

Making it easier to use- will it lead to less distraction?

Making it easier to use- will it lead to less distraction?

IIHS

Is injury crash risk associated with phone use?

IIHS study in Western Australia, 2005

Phone use associated with fourfold increase in risk of injury crash

Increased risk similar for hands-free and hand-held phones

Increased risk similar for males and females, for drivers 30+ and younger than 30

IIHS

Can you legislate the problem away?Can you legislate the problem away?

IIHS

Cell phone bansSeptember 2006

by local jurisdiction

teenage drivers

school bus drivers

statewide hand-held ban

last updated: 9-15-06

IIHS

Percentage of drivers using hand-held cell phones before and after New York law Connecticut and New York

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Law implemented Nov. 2001

New York Connecticut

before law

3 months after

15 months after

IIHS

Percentage of drivers using hand-held phones Washington, D.C., metro area

0

2

4

6

8

10

D.C. Maryland Virginia

March 2004

October 2004

October 2005

IIHS

Don’t look to laws to solve the problem

Effects of hand-held phone bans on crashes unknown

Both hands-free and hand-held phones increase crash risk

May be potential benefits from hand-held phone bans if drivers who don’t switch to hands-free use phone less or not at all

Unclear how to enforce ban on hands-free phone use

Use of hands-free phones likely to increase with availability of Bluetooth technology

Effects of hand-held phone bans on crashes unknown

Both hands-free and hand-held phones increase crash risk

May be potential benefits from hand-held phone bans if drivers who don’t switch to hands-free use phone less or not at all

Unclear how to enforce ban on hands-free phone use

Use of hands-free phones likely to increase with availability of Bluetooth technology

IIHS

In-vehicle cell phones The next generation

IIHS

The Way Forward

More progress in the last decade in vehicle crashworthiness than in changing driver behavior

Large gains in seat belt use in recent years, but higher use rates would save many additional lives

Alcohol-impaired driving and speeding should be top priorities for enacting stronger laws and enforcement

Motorcycle ridership and deaths are up, especially among baby boomers, but progress could be made with universal helmet laws in every state

More progress in the last decade in vehicle crashworthiness than in changing driver behavior

Large gains in seat belt use in recent years, but higher use rates would save many additional lives

Alcohol-impaired driving and speeding should be top priorities for enacting stronger laws and enforcement

Motorcycle ridership and deaths are up, especially among baby boomers, but progress could be made with universal helmet laws in every state

IIHS

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