Global Pulses Perspective: Production, Consumption, Trade and Outlook

P Parthasarthy Rao and P K Joshi South Asia Regional Office

International Food Policy Research Institute

Conference on Pulses for Sustainable Agriculture and Human Health

May 31-1 June, 2016, NAAS Complex, Pusa, New Delhi

This Presentation

• Trends and patterns of pulse production

•Pulse consumption

• Trade in pulses and price trends

•Demand and supply outlook of pulses

•Conclusions and way forward

Data source: FAOSTAT, FAO Web site, and literature

Pulses Production and Area

• Roughly 72 m t of pulses are produced from about 80 m ha • It was 45 mt from 64 m ha area in 1981-83

• Global pulses production during 1980s increased impressively (3.7%); stagnated (0.1%) during 1990s; and picked-up (2.2%) during 2000s.

• Production increased in eighties in developed countries

• Recent increase in production led by developing countries • Yield gains was the main source of production increase during

1980s (62%) but area during 2000 (63%)

• Pulses account for a small share in global arable land (5.8%) • Its share however ranges from 35% to 10% in several low and

middle income countries• Pulses account for 18% of arable land in India the Worlds

largest producer

33.7

14.120.9

2.9

3.7

5.1

9.3

10.3

31.9

16.814.6

8.9

6.5

6.2

5.8

9.3

Dry beans

Chickpeas

Dry peas

Cowpeas

Lentils

Pigeon peas

Broad beans

Others

1980-822011-13

• Dry beans tops the list (32%) followed by chickpea (17%) dry peas (15%); cowpea (9%); lentils and pigeonpea 6%

• Share of cowpea and lentilincreased from 6 to 15%

• Chickpea and pigeonpeashare increased marginally

• Share of peas dry and broadbeans declined

• Six pulses contribute about 80% of pulses production

Production of Pulses by Type

Changing Regional Patterns in Pulses Production

• Asia & Africa share about 67% of all pulses; showing rising trends

• Relative share of Asia in global pulse production however declined from 51% in eighties to 45% in 2013

• Southeast Asia is emerging fastest growing region in pulses • 7.4%, per annum between 2000-2013

• Dry beans, chickpea and pigeon pea are gaining importance

• Chickpea and pigeon pea showing increasing trends in South Asia

• Africa is also showing fast growth in pulses production • 4.6% per annum• Chickpea and pigeon pea in East Africa and Cowpea in West Africa

• Share of Africa increased from 12 to 22%

• Among developed regions, North America led by Canada and Oceania are showing rising trends

• 4.1% per annum• Lentils in Canada and chickpea and lentils in Oceania

• Production declined in traditional growing areas like Europe, West Asia and Eastern Asia.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

19

61

19

65

19

69

19

73

19

77

19

81

19

85

19

89

19

93

19

97

20

01

20

05

20

09

20

13

Africa Northern America

Latin America and Caribbean Asia

Europe Oceania

Regional pulse production (000 t)

Yield of Pulses versus Cereals

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

19

61

19

65

19

69

19

73

19

77

19

81

19

85

19

89

19

93

19

97

20

01

20

05

20

09

20

13

Yie

ld (

kg/h

a)

Cereals Pulses

0500

1000150020002500300035004000450050005500

19

61

19

65

19

69

19

73

19

77

19

81

19

85

19

89

19

93

19

97

20

01

20

05

20

09

20

13

Yie

ld (

kg/h

a)

Developed cereals Developing cereals

Developed pulses Developing pulses

• Global pulse yield around 900 kg/ha; whichused to be 550 kg/ha in 1961 and 750 in1985

• But, global cereals yields increased rapidly

• 1500 kg/ha in 1961, 2500 in 1985 to 4000 kg/hain 2013

• Cereal yields increased significantly both indeveloped and developing countries

• Pulse yields increased mainly in developedcountries until mid 1990s and thereafterstagnated

• In developing countries pulse yields werestagnant throughout and increasedmarginally only from mid 2005

Yield of Pulses in Major Growing Countries, 2011-13

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Can

ada

Un

ited

States o

f Am

erica

Ch

ina

Turkey

Ethio

pia

Ru

ssian Fe

de

ration

Au

stralia

Myan

mar

Brazil

Nigeria

Iran (Islam

ic Rep

ub

lic of)

Un

ited

Rep

ub

lic of Tan

zania

Me

xico

Ind

ia

Pakistan

Ken

ya

Ugan

da

Bu

rkina Faso

Mo

zamb

iqu

e

Niger

Yie

ld (

kg/h

a)

• There is large inter-regional and inter-country yield variation

• Average yields of developed countries was > 1.5 t/ha• Canada > 2 t/ha; US near 2 t/ha

• Developing countries average yield was <1 t/ha• Myanmar and Ethiopia are exception

• Most of the African and S Asian countries yields are 400-600 kg/ha

Consumption and Utilization of Pulses

0

20

40

60

80

100

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Foo

d (

%)

World Developed Developing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Feed

(%

)

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Per

cap

ita

foo

d

World Developed Developing

• Global demand for pulses is increasing• Around 70 m t in 2011-13 compared to 42

m t in 1980-81• But per capita consumption declined (10kg in

1961 to 6kg in 1980 and remained stagnant;slow rise since 2008

• Diverse uses for food & feed• Developing countries 75% as food• Developed countries 35% as food

Drivers of Household Consumption: Role of Demand Elasticities

Consumer Income Price Overall

All 0.206 -0.456 -0.250

Poor 0.500 -0.699 -0.199

Rich 0.098 -0.345 -0.250

• Price elasticity is more than income elasticity

• Net elasticity is -0.250

• Poor are more sensitive to these elasticities• Pe= -0.666 and Ie= 0.500

• Consumption will be stabilized if income increase is more than price increase

Pulse Share in Total Protein Consumption

34.5

26.1

21.7

18.9

18.5

18.2

17.9

17.3

16.4

14.7

14.4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Rwanda

Niger

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Uganda

Cameroon

Nicaragua

Haiti

Mozambique

Kenya

Malawi

Pulse share, %

• Globally share of pulses in total protein intake is around 5%.

• Share of protein however, high in several low and middle income countries ranging from 30% to 10%.

• In India pulses contribute 13% to protein intake.

• Per capita availability of protein from pulses as also per capita consumption growth turned positive and grew at 1.3% per annum since mid 2000.

Region-wise Self-Sufficiency in Pulses

0.96

2.27

3.03

1.56

0.89 0.93 1.02 0.930.72 0.81

1.021.24

1.55

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Self-sufficiency ratio: 1 = Self sufficient • At aggregate level, developed countries

have surplus while deficit in developing countries• Northern America has highest surplus, while

Asia has high deficit

• West and South Asia are highly deficit in pulses

• Between 1980 and 2011 self-sufficiency is increasing in developed countries and further declining in developing countries• Developed from 1.05 to 1.56.

• Developing from 1.0 to 0.93

Pulse Trade: Changing Patterns

• Global pulse trade is about 12 million tons; it was 3 m t in 1980-82 and 6.5 m t in 1990-92• 18% of total global pulse production is traded, it is 55% for

developed countries

• Developed countries shares 65% of all exports

• Developing countries shares 82% of all imports; South Asia shares about 40% of imports

• Exports zooming from North America from 1990s led by Canada• Canada, Myanmar, USA, Australia and China account for 75% of

all exports

• India is largest importing country (3-4 m t)• India, China, BD, Pakistan and Egypt account about 62% of all

imports

Pulse trade: Index values 1960=100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Ind

ex v

alu

e

Pulses (Total) Cereals (Total)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Exp

ort

s

Developed (Pulses) Developing (Pulses)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Imp

ort

s

Developed (Pulses) Developing (Pulses)

Pulse Exports by Type

1980-82

Dry peas exports

47.3

5.77.6

12.4

21.3

5.7

Beans, dry

Broad beans,horse beans, dry

Chick peas

Lentils

Peas, dry

Other pulses

31.6

5.9

9.415.2

35.8

2.2Beans, dry

Broad beans,horse beans, dryChick peas

Lentils

Peas, dry

Other pulses

2009-11

Exports share of peas dry, lentils and chickpeas increased and declined for beans

dry

Pulse Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012Pro

du

cer

pri

ces

(US

$/

ton

ne

)

Canada Spain

Russian Federation United Kingdom

United States of America

Dry peas

Stage I: 1961-71 almost stagnatedStage II: 1971-85 increasing; peak for chickpea in 1979-80 & most pulses in 1981Stage III: 1985-03 volatile; peak for chickpea in 1995Stage IV: 2003 onward rising trend with peak in 2008Dry peas: Lower prices than other pulses; with peak in 2008 and then rising

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Exp

ort

s U

nit

Pri

e

Chick peas Lentils Pulses + (Total) Cereals + (Total)

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

Euro

pe

No

rthA

merica

Africa

Latin A

merica

Asia

Sou

theastern

Asia

Eastern A

sia

Sou

thern

Asia

Tho

usa

nd

met

ric

ton

s

2020 2030 2050

Source: S, ICSource S. Nedumaran, ICRISAT

Projected Pulse Surplus and Deficit by Region, IMPACT Model

Future Pulse Outlook (Source: Clancey 2009; Kumar et al 2009; Rao et al 2010)

• Global pulse consumption may grow by 10% in coming decade and 23% by 2030; more rapidly in Africa and Asia• Pulse consumption in Africa may rise 27% in next decade and 50% by 2030

• In Asia, pulses consumption would increase by 12% in 2020 and by 24% in 2030

• To bridge demand –supply gap • Yields to increase more than 1.5 times; not easy task

• Or additional area under pulses to 6 m ha by 2020 and 10 m ha by 2030

• Prices of pulses will increase and fluctuate with changes in annual production

• Trade will increase; developing countries to import more

• Shift in consumption towards value added products

• More private sector participation

Conclusions and Way Forward

• Pulse production has started to look up since mid 2000 due to promotion of improved technology and government support

• Pulse production has diversified with new production niches emerging

• New niches not only in developed country regions (North America, Oceania) but also in Africa and South East Asia.

• In India the largest pulse producing and consuming country production trending up but at a slow pace

• Per capita consumption of pulses increased marginally at the global level after decades of decline.

• Pulses trade scenario in changing with new countries producing pulses for export

• Demand for pulses is set to grow in the short to medium term but under business as usual scenario supply side constraints will continue

Continued……….

• Measures to increase pulse supply:

• Global level

• Increase funding for pulse research

• Incentives for improved technologies to public as well as private sector

• Enable effective trade

• National level

• Bridge yield gaps to increase domestic production

• Find niches to fit pulses in cropping pattern

• Reduce volatility in pulse prices

• Improve pulse value chains to benefit producers and consumers

• Attract private sector in pulses production, processing and marketing

• Promote innovative institutions for scale

International Year of Pulses- 2016Commit ensuring pulses to poor at affordable prices

Thank you