IBM Watson

Is a convergence of technology leading towards a convergence of competition for smart grids? How should IBM alter its strategy?

Michael Karasick, PhDVice President, IBM Watson [email protected] Watson

International Business Machines 2015


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AgendaWhat Watson doesWatson Application PatternsHow Watson WorksWatson for Software Creators

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IBM WatsonAgendaWhat Watson doesWatson Application PatternsHow Watson WorksWatson for Software Creators

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IBM Watson

You are hereNew Techniques are Necessary for Data OverloadAmount of data world wide by 2020*:44 Zettabytes; or44 x 1021 bytes; or44,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes

Internetof ThingsImages & MultimediaText Enterprise Data *EMC Digital Universe with Research & Analysis by IDC (April 2014)

4202020152010


IBM Watson

New Computing Paradigms Address Challenges of the Day

51950: PROGRAMMINGStored data, instructionsLanguages for computingMetrics for computation

2011: COGNITIONMassive data scaleData for trainingReal-world modalities

1900: TABULATIONPunched card tabulationScale, automationSeeds of future innovation


IBM Watson6cognition/,kniSH()n/nounthe mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experience, and the senses.synonyms: perception, discernment, apprehension, learning, understanding,comprehension, insight; reasoning, thinking, thought a result of this; a perception, sensation, notion, or intuition.plural noun: cognitions


IBM Watson7Insert Watson Video #1 Slide Here


IBM WatsonWatson Finds Knowledge in Noisy Data at Enormous Scale8Listens to signals for a domain.Obtains patterns (meaning) from the signals:detects and scores the strength of the signal features;learns which features are meaningful.Determines confidence by analyzing supporting evidence.Uses trained machine learning:previously trained against data that represents domain ground truth.Elevates and amplifies human cognition:Exploration, engagement, discovery, enforcement, and decision support


IBM WatsonObtaining Insight into a Public Company from Regulatory Filings9EventCompanyPersonSecurityLoan

Annual ReportLoan AgreementProxy StatementInsider Transaction

Counterparty RelationshipsLoan Exposure

SEC/FDIC Filings of Financial Companies (Forms 10-K,8-k, 10-Q, DEF 14A, 3/4/5, 13F, SC 13D SC 13 GFDIC Call Reports)

ScatteredIntegratedDiscovery

%Owner Officer EmployeeDirector Insider


IBM Watson

Obtaining Insight into an Individual by Analyzing their WritingWatson Personality Insights(Signal)(Meaning)10


IBM WatsonDifferences with Programmatic ComputingLearned behavior:rather than being instructed via program or rules; and soless brittle to change than programmed systems.Behavior adapts over time according to:on-going experience; andexposure to new information.These systems need LOTS of training data to achieve human proficiencyinitially and through on-going experience.

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IBM WatsonDiscovery: Accelerate Research and Insights

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Law: PrecedentsPublic Safety: Anomalous relationshipsCross Industry: Drug or material discovery

Test hypothesesFind evidenceDiscover new facts


IBM Watson14Policy Enforcement: Validate Adherence Insurance: Paying a claimHealthcare: Qualifying a patient for a clinical trialHealthcare: Validating acceptability of a medication

Train on policy documentsTest situation against policyDetermine if more data needed


IBM Watson15Decision Support

Consult an expertHelp with differential diagnosisEvaluate actions

Healthcare: Sharing treatment expertiseCross Industry: Engineering or mechanical repairs


IBM Watson16Engagement: Transform Customer Experience

For consumers of a brandAsk questionsReceive explanations

Cross Industry: Process conciergeCross Industry: Self-help and agent-assist for call centers


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19What is the Difference Between a Search Engine and WatsonMeaning and Natural Interaction


IBM Watson20A 58-year-old woman presented to her primary care physician after several days of dizziness, anorexia, dry mouth, increased thirst, and frequent urination. She had also had a fever and reported that food would get stuck when she was swallowing. She reported no pain in her abdomen, back, or flank and no cough, shortness of breath, diarrhea, or dysuria. Her family history included oral and bladder cancer in her mother, Graves' disease in two sisters, hemochromatosis in one sister, and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura in one sister. Her history was notable for cutaneous lupus, hyperlipidemia, osteoporosis, frequent urinary tract infections, three uncomplicated cesarean sections, a left oophorectomy for a benign cyst, and primary hypothyroidism, which had been diagnosed a year earlier. Her medications were levothyroxine, hydroxychloroquine, pravastatin, and alendronate. A urine dipstick was positive for leukocyte esterase and nitrites. The patient was given a prescription for ciprofloxacin for a urinary tract infection and was advised to drink plenty of fluids. On a follow-up visit with her physician 3 days later, her fever had resolved, but she reported continued weakness and dizziness despite drinking a lot of fluids. She felt better when lying down. Her supine blood pressure was 120/80 mm Hg, and her pulse was 88 beats per minute; on standing, her systolic blood pressure was 84 mm Hg, and her pulse was 92 beats per minute. A urine specimen obtained at her initial presentation had been cultured and grew more than 100,000 colonies of Escherichia coli, which is sensitive to ciprofloxacin. Questions are Nuanced and Domain SpecificDomain terminology is nuanced and variableMachine Learning critical for training

Disease named as a symptom


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Watson Long Tail of QuestionsFrequency Question is Asked

QuestionFactual Questions (Jeopardy)People: WikipediaWatson:Fact PipelineYes/No pipelineEquivalent QuestionsPeople:AssociationWatson:Topical AnswersFrequent QuestionsPeople: MemorizeWatson: Predefined AnswersExplanatory QuestionsPeople:ResearchWatson:Passage RatingDisambiguating QuestionsContext

Fusion


IBM WatsonAgendaWhat Watson isWatson Application PatternsHow Watson WorksWatson for Software Creators

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IBM Watson

Perhaps one of the most interesting examples recently is the Cognitoy by our business partner Elemental PathUsing Watson technology, these are toys that can interact with children in a natural way

IBM WatsonCogniToy Elemental Path

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IBM Watson

How did the market respond?Elemental Path launched a kickstarter program to fund CogniToy, and tripled their goal in just a dayThis is one example that demonstrates how excited the market is about this technology

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PhoneTextChat

Natural Language ClassifierDialogCommon Recipes Reflect UsageHow do I reset my password?If speech, convert to TextContext = Online BankingWatson identifies intentIntent = Password ResetConfidence 0.876655900Watson dialog codifies implementationIntent=Password ResetContext = Online BankingEventually invoke database system


IBM Watson26Text to SpeechConcept ExpansionPersonality InsightsTone AnalyzerLanguage IdentificationMachine TranslationEntity ExtractionSentiment AnalysisMessage ResonanceQuestion and AnswerRelationshiop ExtractionVisualization RenderingConcept InsightsData NewsSpeech to Text

Watson Services are Cloud-Delivered

BluemixTradeoff AnalyticsVisual RecognitionLanguage DetectionText ExtractionMicroformat ParsingFeed DetectionKeyword ExtractionLinked Data SupportImage Link ExtractionImage TaggingFace RecognitionClassificationAuthor ExtractionTaxonomy


IBM Watson Personality Insights

Enables deeper understanding of people's personality characteristics, needs, and values to help engage users on their own termsThe IBM Watson Personality Insights service uses linguistic analytics to infer cognitive and social characteristics, including Big Five, Values, and Needs, from communications that the user makes available, such as email, text messages, tweets, forum posts, and more. By deriving cognitive and social preferences, the service helps users to understand, connect to, and communicate with other people on a more personalized level.

My words show my personality.Big 5 Traits:openness;conscientiousness;extraversion;Calibrated with standard tests.

agreeableness;neuroticism; and47 others.

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IBM Watson

Obtaining Insight into an Individual by Analyzing their WritingWatson Personality Insights(Signal)(Meaning)28


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IBM WatsonConcept InsightsExplores information based on the concepts behind your input, rather than limiting investigation to findings based on traditional text matchingThe Concept Insights service maps user-input words to the underlying concepts of those words based on training on English Wikipedia data. Doing so can broaden the user's investigation beyond the actual words used in an inquiry. Two types of associations are identified: explicit links when an input document directly mentions a concept, and implicit links which connect the input documents to relevant concepts that are not directly mentioned in them. Users of this service can also search for documents that are relevant to a concept or collection of concepts by exploring the explicit and implicit links.

www.ibm.com/WatsonDeveloperCloud

Link words between documents and conceptsExplicit linkage when a document names a conceptImplicit linkage when concept indirectly mentionedTrained on English Wikipedia

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IBM Watson31Natural Language ClassifierInterpret natural language and classify it with confidenceThe IBM Watson Natural Language Classifier service enables developers without a background in machine learning or statistical algorithms to create machine-learning, natural language interfaces for their applications. The service interprets input text (questions or other) and returns a corresponding classification with associated confidence levels. The return value can then be used to trigger a corresponding action, such as redirecting the request or answering the question.

BETA

www.ibm.com/WatsonDeveloperCloud

Classifies text against predefined categoriesClassification (with confidence)Then answer question or trigger an actionEasy to trainList of [text, class] pairs


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IBM Watson34 a

By 2018 half of all consumers will regularly interact with services based on cognitive

- IDC FutureScape


IBM Watson

www.ibm.com/watsonWatsonjobs

developer.ibm.com/watson

[email protected]


IBM WatsonChart10.60.20.40.020.7

Series 1Evidence Profile for UTI Diagnosis

Sheet1Series 1Symptoms0.6Family History0.2Personal History0.4Medications0.02Findings0.7To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

IBM Watson

Technology

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