How frequent are biotic worlds?
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How frequent are biotic worlds?The Impact of Kepler on the likelihood
of Extra-terrestrial Life
Amri Wandel - Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem
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ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel 2
How frequent are terrestrial exo-planets?
Do other stars have planets? If so, are they Earthlike? Are they in the Habitable zone?The exo-planet boom What has changed with Kepler?
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ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel 3
Star types suitable for the evolution of life
Too big(M>1.5Mo)- Main Sequence lifetime insufficient for the evolution of life
Too small (<0.5 Mo) - eruptive (planetary temperature instable)
This leaves ~ 10% of all stars.
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עוברי כוכבים ו”מערכות שמש” בערפילית אוריון
Planetary disks being born in Orion
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5ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel
The Doppler method V*~mp ap
-1/2
51 Peg
daysP
MiSinM
001.0229.4
05.047.0)(
JupPlanet
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6ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel
Doppler method is biased towards massive,near planets
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ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel
Observatories in Space
SIM
Kepler
Darwin
CoRoT
7
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The transit method
The inclination must be very close to 90°
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ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel
HD209458
• Planet mass• Planet radius• Planet density 9
3cm g 35.0.
65.01.07.86
06.035.1
Planet
JupPlanet
JupPlanet
MMi
RR
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Sensitivity of exo-planet
projects
Radial velocity (Doppler)
Transit Micro-lensing
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The Kepler missionSearch Earthlike exo-planets
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Kepler’s first planets
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The Habitable Zone
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How many biotic woldss exist in the Galaxy?
1011 stars 10% Sunlike Planets in HZ Earthlike
nHZ
? ?Kepler 22b
5.12.2011
Kepler 20e,f
19.12.2011
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How frequent is extra-terrestrial life?
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ILASOL 2009 Amri Wandel
Probability for a terrestrial planet to become biotic vs. cosmic time
Earth
prob
abilit
y
Time (bill.yrs) 17
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Probabilities for terrestrial planetsand biotic worlds
18
Average distance to nearest biotic exoplanet:
Db~10 ly (FpFb) -1/3
Let’s assume two extreme scenarios:
Optimistic: Fp=1, Fb=1, Db~10 ly
Pessimistic: Fp=0.01, Fb=0.001 Db~500 ly
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Distance to nearest biotic planet
11+Log (FpFb)
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Probability for a biotic planet within 100 ly
11+Log (FpFb)
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Seems to be much more likely
After Kepler extra-terrestrial life