Hong Kong SAR Government 2010 年半年經濟報告 · 2018-11-26 · Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3...

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香港特別行政區政府香港特別行政區政府

Hong Kong SAR GovernmentHong Kong SAR Government

2010 2010 年半年經濟報告年半年經濟報告HalfHalf--yearly Economic Report 2010yearly Economic Report 2010

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2010 2010 年全年修訂經濟預測年全年修訂經濟預測Updated economic forecasts for 2010Updated economic forecasts for 2010

二零一零年八月十三日二零一零年八月十三日13 August 201013 August 2010

2

2010年第二季經濟表現Economic performance in 2010 Q2

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香港經濟在第二季繼續全面復蘇Broad-based recovery continued into the second quarter

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按年增減Year-on-year change

經季節性調整按季增減Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

1.4%

6.5%

本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

4

對外貿易環節External sector

5

整體出口進一步顯著增長Merchandise exports increased markedly further

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貨物出口

Exports of goods20.1%

4.2%

6

亞洲區內貿易颷升; 歐美市場依然落後Intra-regional trade showed a resurgence; US and

European markets still lagging behind

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60

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(2008年第三季 = 100)(Q3 2008 = 100)

美國US

歐盟EU

中國內地Mainland China

日本

Japan

亞洲（不包括中國及日本）

Asia (excluding China and Japan)

實質香港貨物出口

Hong Kong's exports of goods in real terms

110.9108.4102.4

81.7

78.2

7

服務出口亦依然興旺Exports of services likewise remained vibrant

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0.8%

16.9%服務輸出

Exports of services

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訪港旅遊業因訪港旅客激增而急升; 金融服務業不及早前蓬勃

Inbound tourism surged on strong influx of visitor arrivals; financial

services less robust

區內貨運暢旺為相關服務貿易帶來支持

Vibrant trade flows in the region supportive to relevant trades in services

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金融及商用服務Financial and business services旅遊服務Travel services

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

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與貿易有關的服務Trade-related services

運輸服務Transportation services

34.5%

12.4%

18.1%

11.0%


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本地經濟環節Domestic sector

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私人消費保持堅挺Private consumption held firm

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1.5%

4.6%

私人消費開支

Private Consumption Expenditure

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投資開支大幅上升，反映營商氣氛正面Investment spending surged, reflecting positive business

sentiment

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11.4%15.2%16.2%

機器、設備及電腦軟件開支Machinery, equipment and

computer software 本地固定資本形成總額Gross domestic fixed

capital formation

樓宇及建造

Building and construction


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勞工市場Labour market

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失業率繼二零零九年年中起逐步下跌後略為回升Unemployment rate ticked up after successive declines

since mid-2009

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低技術勞工Lower-skilled workers

專業及管理員工Professional andmanagerial staff

整體Overall

5.1%4.6%

2.7%

失業率 (%)Unemployment rate (%)

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工資及勞工收入進一步加快上升Labour wages and earnings picked up further

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就業人士平均薪金指數Index of payroll

per person engaged

僱員每月就業收入平均數Average monthly

employment earnings of employees

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

工資指數Wage index

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按行業分類的名義工資指數Nominal wage index by industry

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進出口貿易、批發及零售

Import/export, wholesale and retail trades運輸

Transportation金融及保險活動

Financial and insurance activities地產租賃及保養管理服務

Real estate leasing and maintenance management專業及商業服務

Professional and business services住宿及膳食服務活動

Accommodation and food service activities所有行業

All industries

按年名義增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in nominal terms (%)

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90

100

2000三月Mar

2001三月Mar

2002三月Mar

2003三月Mar

2004三月Mar

2005三月Mar

2006三月Mar

2007三月Mar

2008三月Mar

2009三月Mar

2010三月Mar

(%)

更多公司上調工資More firms have raised wages

上調工資的公司的比重Share of firms with wage increases

下調工資的公司的比重Share of firms with wage decreases工資不變的公司的比重Share of firms with wage unchanged

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本地股票市場Local stock market

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90

100

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120

130

140

150

160

170

15/9/08 15/11/08 15/1/09 15/3/09 15/5/09 15/7/09 15/9/09 15/11/09 15/1/10 15/3/10 15/5/10 15/7/10

杜瓊斯指數Dow Jones Index上證綜合指數Shanghai Composite Index摩根士丹利太平洋區指數 (香港及日本除外)MSCI Pacific Index (excl. HK and Japan)東京日經指數Nikkei Index新加坡海峽時報指數Singapore Straits Index倫敦富時100指數FTSE 100 Index恆生指數Hang Seng Index

(15/9/2008=100)

Change over

15/9/2008

HSI (11%)

Nikkei (-22%)

MSCI (19%)

Dow Jones (-3%)

本地股票市場跟隨環球其他主要股票市場出現反彈Local stock market rebounded alongside major stock

markets worldwide

SCI (25%)

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本港住宅市場Local property market

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40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

整體住宅價格指數

Overall residentialprice index

指數

Index

70平方米以下住宅價格指數Residential price index

(less than 70 sq m)

100平方米或以上住宅價格指數Residential price index

(100 sq m or above)

較2008高位Above 2008 peak: +7%較1997高位Above 1997 peak: +2%

住宅價格於二零零九年初開始急升Flat prices surged since early 2009

較2008高位Above 2008 peak: +15%較1997高位Below 1997 peak: -16%

較2008高位Above 2008 peak: +17%較1997高位Below 1997 peak: -17%

住宅價格於二零零九年初開始急升Flat prices surged since early 2009

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25

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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40

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80

100

數目 (千)Number ('000)

成交額 (右標線)Value of transactions (RHS)

交投量(左標線)Number of transactions (LHS)

十億港元HK$ Bn

住宅物業市場在二零一零年上半年大部分時間交投活躍Property market transactions were active in most of the first half of 2010

住宅物業市場在二零一零年上半年大部分時間交投活躍Property market transactions were active in most of the

first half of 2010

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5百萬至少於1 千萬元5 to less than 10 million

(12%)

1千萬元或以上10 million or above

(6%)

2 百萬至少於5 百萬元2 to less than 5 million

(42%)

少於2百萬元Less than 2 million

(41%)

二零一零年上半年住宅物業買賣合約數目

S&P agreements for residentialproperty in 2010 H1

70平方米或以上70 m2 or above

(11%)

70平方米以下Less than 70 m2

(89%)

市場仍以用家為主Market remained largely end-user led

二零一零年上半年住宅物業二手市場成交

Secondary market transaction for residentialproperty in 2010 H1

註 : 由於進位的關係，數字加起來未必等於 100%。Note : Due to rouding, figures might not add up to 100%.

市場交投仍集中於中小單位Market activities remained concentrated in

small/medium-sized flats

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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4

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10

12

註：確認人交易指於未正式完成交易之前轉售。Note : Confirmor transactions refer to resale before assignment.

宗數Number

百分比Percentage

投機活動並不熾熱Speculation activities were generally not rampant

確認人交易宗數 (左標線)Number of confirmor transactions (LHS)

確認人交易佔所有買賣合約百分比 (右標線)Confirmor transactions as a share of total sale and purchase agreements (RHS)

投機活動相對其過往情況並不算熾熱Speculation activities not particularly rampant relative to

their past trend

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

年利率Percent per annum

一個月香港銀行同業拆息

1 month HIBOR

按揭利率*

Mortgage rate*

註︰ (*) 按揭利率是根據以最優惠利率作為定價參考及其他定價方法（包括以香港銀行同業拆息作為定價）的貸款佔新批出貸款的比例及相關利率所推算。Note : (*) The mortgage rate is estimated by the share of mortgage loans priced with reference to Best Lending Rate and otherwise priced (including those pricing with reference to HIBOR) in total new mortgage loans approved and their respective interest rates.

短期銀行同業拆息跌至接近零的水平，令按揭利率處於低水平Mortgage rate stayed at low level with short-term interbank

interst rate falling to almost zero

短期銀行同業拆息跌至接近零，令按揭利率處於低水平Mortgage rate stayed at low level with short-term

interbank interst rate falling to almost zero

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40

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60

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100

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

供款與收入比率^Repayment-income ratio^ (%)

置業供款負擔仍然較長期平均水平為佳Home purchase affordability still compared favourably with the long-term average

2010 第二季：41.52010 Q2 : 41.5

1989-2008年平均值：52.61989-2008 average: 52.6

註︰ (^) 45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).

置業供款負擔仍然較長期平均水平為佳，主因是利息低企Home purchase affordability still compared favourably

with the long-term average, largely boosted by low interest rates

1997第二季: 92.81997Q2: 92.8

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10

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30

40

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60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

供款與收入比率^Repayment-income ratio^ (%)

假設按揭利率加300點子If mortgage rate +300 bps

2010 第二季 41.52010 Q2 : 41.5

1989-2008年平均值：52.61989-2008 average : 52.6

註︰ (^) 45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).

若利率最終回復至正常水平，置業供款負擔將會上升The repayment burden to homebuyers would increase

should interest rate eventually normalise

若利率最終回復至正常水平，置業供款負擔將會上升The repayment burden to homebuyers would increase

should interest rate eventually normalise

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

住宅單位落成量

Completion of residential property units

落成量及中期供應的情況最近已有改善Completion and medium supply situations have improved recently

單位Units

10年平均10 year average

未來數年私人樓宇供應

Private housing supply in the next few years

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

單位Units

中期供應量 : 61 000 個Medium term supply : 61 000 units

註：中期供應量包括已落成但仍未售出的單位，建築中但未預售的單位及已批出

土地而仍未動工項目的單位。Note : Medium term supply comprises unsold completed flats, flats under construction but not yet sold, and flats on disposed sites where construction has yet to start.

註：2001年後的數字並不包括村屋。2010及2011年為預測數字。Note : Village houses are excluded since 2001. Figures for 2010 and 2011 are forecasts.

落成量及中期供應增加，將有助樓市平穩健康發展Increase in completion and medium term supply should

help ensure stable and healthy development of the property market

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通脹Inflation

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通脹因經濟進一步增長而稍為上漲Inflation notched up slightly upon the further pick-up

in the economy

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

基本食品 Basic foodstuffs

基本綜合消費物價指數 Underlying CCPI

3.0%1.7%


6 月Jun

30

本地及外圍通脹壓力一覽A summary of local and external inflationary pressures

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資本貨物進口價格Import prices of capital goods食品進口價格Import prices of foodstuffs原料及半製成品進口價格Import prices of raw materials and semi-manufactures

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商舖租金成本 (8季移動平均)Shop rental cost (8-quarter moving average)

名義工資指數Overall nominal wage index

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of chnge (%)


0.4%

1.9%

9.7%

3.9%3.5%

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2010年下半年展望Outlook for the second half of 2010

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• 內地及亞洲經濟增長強勁Strong growth in the Mainland and other Asian economies

• 本地消費和投資氣氛依然堅挺Firm local consumption and investment sentiments

• 基建活動加快進行Expedition of infrastructure projects

短期前景: 正面因素Near-term Outlook: Positive factors

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大型企業普遍維持樂觀The extent of optimism among large enterprises held up

rather well

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-40

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60

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-12

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業務狀況預期變動 (左標線)Expected change in

business situation (LHS)

淨差額展現了業務狀況預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「較佳」的機構單位百分比與填報「較差」的機構單位百分比的差距。正數指可能

向上趨升，而負數則為可能跌勢。

Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentagepoints between the proportion of establishments choosing "better" over that choosing "worse". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trendwhile a negative sign, a likely downward trend.

註 : *

Note : *

淨差額* (百分點)Net balance* (% point)

經濟增長 (右標線)GDP growth (RHS)


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• 歐洲地區主權債務問題Sovereign debt problem in Europe

• 各先進經濟體系刺激措施的效用減退Fading stimulus effect in the advanced economies

• 大量資金流入亞洲帶來宏觀經濟風險Flush of liquidity into Asia posing a risk to macroeconomic stability

• 保護主義升溫; 匯率市場波動Rise of protectionism; exchange rates fluctuation

但仍要留意不確定性因素Yet still on guard for the prevailing uncertainties

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實質經濟增長率: 5 – 6%Real GDP growth: 5 – 6%

整體通脹率: 2.3%Headline inflation: 2.3%

基本通脹率: 1.5%Underlying inflation: 1.5%

2010年香港經濟預測Economic forecasts on Hong Kong for 2010

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完

End

Hong Kong SAR Government 2010 年半年經濟報告 · 2018-11-26 · Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3...

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Transcript of Hong Kong SAR Government 2010 年半年經濟報告 · 2018-11-26 · Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3...