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Guerra delle monete, monete della guerra
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Transcript of Guerra delle monete, monete della guerra
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Guerra delle monete,monete della guerra
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Come Funzionano i Mercati:
Ipotesi 1: Mercati Efficienti e Aspettative Razionali
Ipotesi 2: Riflessivita’ e Aspettative che si Auto-Avverano
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Ipotesi 1:
Mercati Efficienti e Aspettative Razionali
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
La Lotteria degli U.S. Non-Farm Payroll
Source: Reuters
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Per Esempio:
Forte Correlazione tra Dati Economici e Tassi di Interesse a Breve Termine
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Economia e Tassi a Breve
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Economia e Risposta di Politica Monetaria
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IP/EC Sentiment/HICP EC Sentiment/ECB/2y swap
La BCE: Cavaliere Bianco, In Ritardo?
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La Distribuzione di Probabilita’ dei Tassi Futuri
Tramite Futures and Options
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The Euribor Strip
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Source: Bloomberg
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Options on Interest Rate Futures
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Source: Bloomberg
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Implied Probability Distributions
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Source: Bloomberg
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Euribor Rates (Forward and Options)
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Source: Bloomberg
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
A volte il Mercato Sbaglia Clamorosamente Previsione
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“Stop and Go” Scenarios
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015 16
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Chi è il falso?
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015 17
From Hudson – Mandelbrot (2004)
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Ipotesi 2:Aspettative Che Si Auto-Avverano
E Riflessivita’ (George Soros)
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• Trends – Trend Channels
• Moving Averages
• Livelli di Supporto – Resistenza
• Fibonacci Retracement
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Analisi Tecnica e Psicologia del Mercato
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Trend channels E Supporto/Resistenza
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
Moving averages
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Fibo Retracement
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015 24
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(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015
La Guerra delle ValuteCombattuta a Colpi di Bazooka
Per Evitare i Colpi di Cannone
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Mai piu’ Svalutazioni Competitive…
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015 28
Dichiarazione Finale del G20 Di Londra: «Condurremo tutte le nostre politiche economiche in modo cooperativo e responsabile riguardo all’impatto su altri paesi e ci asterremo dalla svalutazione competitiva delle nostre monete mentre promuoveremo un sistema monetario internazionale stabile e ben funzionante»
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A Meno Che…
• Le politiche monetarie espansive siano rivolte allo stimolo della domanda interna
• E quindi la svalutazione del cambio sia solo un “effetto collaterale”
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Proxy Wars
• Durante la guerra fredda, i campi di battaglia erano altri rispetto a USA e URSS
Per esempio:
• Corea (1950-53),
• Congo (1960-65)
• Afghanistan (1979-89)
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015 30
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Currencies: War By Proxy
roubini.com | [email protected] Tel: 212.645.0010 | [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 20 7092 8850 | [email protected] Tel: +65 6434 8890
Source: Bloomberg, Roubini Global Economics
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Balance Sheet Expanding (Assets 2007 = 100)
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32roubini.com | [email protected] Tel: 212.645.0010 | [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 20 7092
8850 | [email protected] Tel: +65 6434 8890
Currency Wars: Winners and LosersUSD and GBP initially benefited, Yen after EUR Finally Weakening
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Currencies: Pegs & Floors
roubini.com | [email protected] Tel: 212.645.0010 | [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 20 7092 8850 | [email protected] Tel: +65 6434 8890
Source: Bloomberg, Roubini Global Economics
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*CNY is not pegged against the dollar, but to a basket of currencies
Currencies with Floors Currencies with Pegs
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L’Euro si Salvera’?
• Il Bazooka di Draghi serve a scongiurare (rimandare?) la fine della moneta unica
(c) Copyright Brunello Rosa - 2015 36
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Europe: Connecting the Dots
roubini.com | [email protected] Tel: 212.645.0010 | [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 20 7092 8850 | [email protected] Tel: +65 6434 8890
Source: Roubini Global Economics
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Oil
ECB
Russia
Greece
Germany/ECQE
Lower Headline Inflation
FX, fiscal space, economic growth
Asistance (ELA, EFSF, SMP, QE)
Debt Negotiations
Exit from the EZ/EU may push Greece towards
further escalation in Ukraine leads to more
sanctions
Geop. Uncertainty and Russian recession affect EU growth
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