Groupe Professionnel SI et Telecom · • Jean-Marc Jarlier (Bouygues Telecom) – 6 Avril :...

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Groupe ProfessionnelSI et Telecom

La Convergence Tout-IP pour les réseaux d’entreprise

Nicolas Lamblin (Alcatel-Lucent)Christophe Mauger (Alcatel-Lucent)Aristide Adjinacou Gnahoui (Alcatel-Lucent)

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Organisation du GP• Nouvelle dynamique de l’activité Informatique du GP

– Nouveaux membres du bureau en provenance du Groupe DSI– Nouvelle dénomination plus large

• GP SI et Telecom

• Nouveau président : Michel Olive– Responsable des Ateliers Telecom : Stephane Aubet– Responsable des Ateliers SI: Hervé Filloux

• Objectifs– Les ateliers SI et Telecom– Conférences thématiques avec le G9+– Développer les contacts personnels et professionnels, le réseau et le business

des Supélec, au travers de rencontres, d’exposés et de retours d’expérience de qualité

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Programme 2009

– 31 Mars : Le Developpement applicatif Agile• Jean-Marc Jarlier (Bouygues Telecom)

– 6 Avril : Gouvernance des SI : État de l’art et enjeux face à la crise

• co-organisation G9+

– 7 Avril : Piloter au travers d'un calculateur (Diner-d ébat Centrale CIET)

• Bernard Ziegler, ex pilote d’essai d’Airbus

– 6 Mai : Etat de l'art de la menace informatique• Nicolas Ruff (EADS)

Proposer un thème : [email protected]

All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2006

Convergence Tout IP

Nicolas LAMBLIN , Aristide ADJINACOU, Christophe MAUGER

GP Informatique et Telecom11 Mars 2009

5 | GP Informatique et Telecom – All-IP 11 Mars 2009

Agenda

Partie 1 : IP Transformation for Entreprise business

1. VoIP Market situation & Trend - Solutions and Services

- Products

2. Unified Communication - Opportunity & Challenges

- Competitive Landscape

- Trend

Partie 2 : IP Transformation for Carrier business

1. Situation Overview

2. Migration paths

3. IP Transformation drivers

4. Beyond IP Transformation


What is the issue ? Develop & sale new services and new features that allow to compensate for the revenue erosion of line shipments

IP Transformation for Entreprise

What is at stake ?Maintain profitability and gain market share in a unified market with larger competitors panel


Entreprise Telephony Market dimensions

Product dimensionSolution and Services dimension

Business dimension Geographical dimension

PBXIP PBX

Hybrid PBXTraditional PBX

PhonesIP

Legacy

Applications� Network Based – Hosted Business

� Trunking/VoIP VPN

� IP Centrex/hosted IP

� Premises Based - Managed PBX

� EMEA

� North America

� Asia Pacific

� CALA

LargeOne large site or multiple networked sites

SMB Small & Medium BusinessOne site or small number of sites

� All-IP convergence impacts each dimension differentl y



1. VoIP Market situation & Trend

- Solutions and Services - Products



- Trend


VoIP Solutions

� Voice Over Broadband (VoBB)� Voice traffic that is carried across a broadband access link. � Voice over broadband services may be originated from households and business sites (mainly SOHO).

� IP Voice Over VPN & IP/TDM Trunking� This uses a company’s IP VPN solution to deliver on-net voice traffic between sites.

� It is commonly provided as a fully managed service.� IP/TDM trunking connects a TDM/IP PBX platform to the enterprise data network and to the public voice network

� Customer Premise Equipment based IP/Hybrid PBX� PBX housed in the Customer Site� This can be deployed with a blend of IP and TDM endpoints (lines or trunk)� The service of the CPE based PBX is often a Managed Service delivered by System Integrator or Service Provider

� Network Based Dedicated Hosted IP PBX � This is a fully outsourced, managed IP PBX service. � The service provider hosts the customer’s IP PBX at its own central office or datacenter.

� Network Based Multitenant IP Centrex � IP Centrex is based on a call management server, or next-generation soft switch� This is housed in a Carrier’s Network Operations Center (NOC)� It delivers all the features of a PBX and supports many functions not available on traditional PBX systems� IP Centrex model is shared between a number of enterprises. � It is aimed at businesses that want all the PBX functionalities but without the associated capital, lease, or maintenance costs.

� A very large panel of solution and service offering


• 500 sites with Medium to Large CPE PBX, size ranging from 50-1000 extensions

• 1800 sites with Small CPE PBX, size ranging from 12-30 extensions

• 11,000 Sites with no system, direct connection to PSTN, 2-3 lines

All sites are independent:• no Voice VPN (private numbering plan)

• no private networking• no centralized management• no VoIP

PSTN

500 sites50-1000 extensionsMedium Size PBX

1800 sites12-30 extensionsSmall Size

11,000 sites2-3 direct lines to PSTN

4200

VoIP Solution & Services - Illustration

“XXL Company” Starting Scenario

Multi-Site

XXL Company



“XXL Company” Main Requirements

� Develop a common “convergent” infrastructure for Data, Voice, Video –open for future developments

� Integration with existing legacy (e.g. messaging)

� Managed and Hosted “turn key” services (MCS)

� Provide all employees with same services and empower the interfaces withcustomers (customer offices, CC, internet and sales networks)

� Deploy a complete VoIP business services portfolio : private numberingplan, IPPBX services…

� Deploy a set of value-added services to enhance employees’ productivity:

� Unified voice/data messaging

� Presence, Instant Messaging, Collaboration

� Videoconference…


• 51 sites with IP-PBX• 262 sites with Media Gateways• Communication Servers Redundancy introduction to provide full Survivability

• 12.800 sites equipped with SIP phones, connected to the IP-VPN and handled by the V-PBX (IP-Centrex)

• Voice VPN federating IP-PBXs users and V-PBX users

• Internal calls to be transported “on-net”(IP-VPN, Voice VPN)

• No more direct connection to PSTN (emergency only).

PSTN

313 sites50-300 extensionsIP-PBX

1800 sites12-30 extensionsVPBX

11,000 sites2-3 IP PhonesVPBX

IP-VPN Service Provider

Carrier NGN

internal

“on-net”

traffic

Traffic to

and from

PSTN


“XXL Company” Final Scenario

XXL Company

�No pre-defined solution : Premises-based, Network-based…

… or both like “XXL Company”


Customer-Based vs Network Based solution adoption

� Many businesses employ both premises-based and carrier-based solutions

� This is particularly the case for businesses with multiple locations, or those absorbing merger and acquisition legacy solutions.

However,

� larger businesses tend to deploy premises-based solutions

� smaller businesses are more reliant on carrier-provided VoIP solutions


VoIP Services Revenues – Segmentation & Trend

$52,501$45,629

$38,352$30,673

$21,422$14,227

$8,410$3,945

$8,781$6,837$5,296$3,840$2,721$1,608$1,111$745

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

Rev

enu

e ($

M)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Man

aged I

P PBX

Hosted V

oIP

Calendar Year

Worldwide VoIP Service Revenue: Hosted VoIP vs Managed IP PBX

� Worldwide VoIP service revenue was $24.1B in CY07 (+52%) over CY06

– As market matures, growth will slow, still double to $61.3B in CY11 from CY07, (CAGR of 26%)

� Strong growth across all segments and regions, but residential revenue outpaced all segments

� Managed IP PBX service Growth is good, but never as strong as business hosted VoIP services, as appeal of managed IP PBX services is limited

Infonetics Aug08


Hosted Business VoIP

$15,439$12,207

$9,223$6,699

$3,961$2,859$1,657$689

$5,859$4,294$3,103$2,218$1,576$1,175$907$648

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

Rev

enu

e ($

M)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Trunk

ing/V

oI...

IP C

entrex

/hos..

.

Calendar Year

Worldwide Hosted Business VoIP Service Revenue

� Business hosted services amounted to $5.5B in CY07

– VoIP has seen tremendous success in the consumer segment, now the business services takes-off

� Forecast of a 5-year CAGR of 40%, with revenue reaching $21.3B in CY11

� 28% of total revenue came from trunking/VoIP VPN

– Higher margin IP Centrex services account for the bulk of this segment;

– Not much change expected, both services in high demand

Infonetics Aug08


Hosted Business VoIP – key take-aways

Targeted market : SMBs

� Minimal start-up cost.� For 20% of SMB, this is the 1st impact of the economic downturn on their deployment plan

� No need to hire technology support staff� #2 VoIP adoption driver for SMB, (after business application, but before cost reduction)

� Affordable Mobility functionality including fixed mobile convergence

� Fixed expenditures budgeted over a contracted period of time

� Access to appropriate expertise as technology needs evolve

But still strong resistance :

� Comfort level with equipment on-premise

� Hosted IP is a change => Longer selling cycle (education, concept prove-in,…)

� Threat for IP PBX vendors. Tier1 SPs avoid competition with vendors

� 1st Target : Greenfield SMB / Start-ups � Strong growth through the next several years


IP Voice Over VPN & IP/TDM Trunking – Key take-aways

� IP communications benefits without transitioning to Hosted (psychological step)

� Substitute for hosted for customers with existing premise equipment

� Introductory approach to small businesses

� Requires upfront CAPEX : upgrade of existing CPE

� Primary target : SMB with existing CPE �IP Trunking is an Avenue to Hosted IP Telephony


Managed Services evolution – key take-aways

� The managed communication services market will become a $10B by 2012

� It will continue to grow after that

� despite the economic downturn

� Partnerships between different types of players will be key

� No company can do it all, especially in the converged infrastructure space

� It is vital for any vendor to seek the right level of partnership to plug the skills gap. This will ensure

� a more rounded service,

� a better customer satisfaction, and,

� in the long term, a more stable growth.

� It is suited to UC where platform & applications from multi-vendors need to be integrated, maintained, upgraded and performance optimized


Geographic trends

� Asia Pacific was leading the VoIP scene for a couple of years with Softbank pioneering VoIP services and taking a strong lead

� EMEA and North America have been gaining ground as VoIP adoption ramps up in these regions

VoIP Service Revenue by Geographic Region

29%30%27%

30%

37%36%36%

26%

35%

27%28%29%

44%47%

37%

30%

32%

7%6%5%2% 2% 3% 3% 4%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11Calendar Year

North America

EMEA

Asia Pacific

CALA

Infonetics Aug08




- Products



- Trend


Enterprise Voice Product Trend

� Telephony market revenue growth:

� from $16.2 B (Y08) to $17.8 B (Y13)

� 1.9% 5-year CAGR

Total Line shipments

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Line

shi

pmen

ts in

Milli

ons

� Line shipments growth :

� from 55.8 M (Y08) to 64.1 M (Y13)

� 2.8% 5-year CAGR

2 key take-aways :

� Revenue erosion : Revenue growth ≠≠≠≠ Line shipment growth

� Line shipments move to IP, SURELY but … SMOOTHLY

Dell ORO Jan09

Dell ORO Jan09 Dell ORO Jan09


Enterprise Voice PBX Trend

� Worldwide economic uncertainty impacts the market

� Rise from $7.3B to to $7.5 B in 2013 (0.3% 5-year CAGR)

� CY08: ~ flat, largely due to strength in 1H08

� CY09: Decline of 5-10%

� CY10: Find bottom

� CY11: Resume strong growth

� TDM should shrink to around $100M by CY11

� Hybrid segment will go negative in CY09 staying there as a new transition to pure switching takes off

� Customers purchasing patterns shift :More features for same price -> Same feature for lower cost

� Requirement for new growth vectors, accelerated by eco nomic downturn

Dell ORO July08

Dell ORO July08


LME vs SMB different dynamic

� Top six IP telephony vendors account for

� +70% of Large vs 50% of SMB

� +40 vendors competing on SMB

� Consolidation still on-going on Large (UC...)

� Enterprise pause purchases until visibility on vendors plan

� Fragmentation on SMB

� Increased number of Solution offerings

� Opportunity for players to increase SMB market Share (IT support providers, Opensource like Asterisk, Hosted IPT)

Dell ORO Jan09


Drivers for move to All-IP

VoIP is rapidly becoming a mainstream choice for corporate customers,But… not just a question of cost saving on long distance and local service

� Cost saving benefits have become commoditized and are considered a given

� Integration with wide ranging business applications and convenience are the most important considerations

� To accelerate IP convergence value proposition of IP telephony has shifted :

Cost-centric benefits -> Applications-centric rewards.

� Business VoIP is as a catalyst for migration to an infrastructure and services that deliver a truly Unified Communications environment.


Roadblock for move to All-IP

Economic Downturn reinforces some of the usual roadblocks:� The move to all IP has been heavily slowed-down

� IP lines will not outship legacy Analog and Digital lines until 2010

� Customers continue to focus on Reducing cost and Maintaining current capabilities

1. Reducing Cost� Smooth transition of IP lines (endpoints)

� LAN impact. Infrastructure upgrade required for Quality of Service (QoS) and Power over Ethernet (PoE).

� Write-off of Digital phones

� Dependency on FMC, Dual-Mode handsets availability and adoption

2. Maintaining current capabilities� Postponement of PBX replacement cycles

� Smooth migration to maximize re-use of install base

� Plenty of solutions developed by vendors & providers

� Allows to protect providers market share, but does not generate expected growth…

� UC required as a Revenue Growth vector

Dell ORO Jan09

Dell ORO Jan09


Unified Communication

The converged world

Transformation IP pour l’Entreprise


Agenda



- Products

2. Unified Communication - Opportunity & Challenges - Competitive Landscape

- Trend


Unified Communication / Definition

� Unified Communication IS NOT a single product.

� Unified Communications IS :

� VoIP. VoIP-based call processing is a building block for UC, but VoIP aloneis not enough to provide UC.

� Email & Unified Messaging. While UM simplifies message access and is generally part of a UC strategy, it is not, by itself, UC.

� Instant Messaging. Instant messaging has now become a staple business application and a popular way to communicate.

� Presence. Users may be logged in to multiple devices. They make their status known to other co-workers and to specify which communication mode is preferred at given times.

� Video. Users can call colleagues and then decide to add video by clicking an icon.

� Web-Based Conferencing and Collaboration. Team members separated by geography need easy–to-use communications applications that enable collaboration.

�Communication towards a new user experience


Unified Communication benefits

� More direct collaboration between co-workers and with suppliers and clients, even if they are not physically on the same site

� Decrease the number of abandoned customer calls

� Increase responsiveness

� Save Cellular charges

� Streamline estate and user management

� Optimize fixed telephony infrastructure

� Reduce Human Latency with business process integration

Increase

productivity

Increase revenues and profits

Minimizing operating

costs

Improve customer service

Improve Decision making

Improvecorporate image

�The value of what is done on a call can often outweigh the cost of the call


Unified Communication Benefits / Illustration

� Corporate directories / Vacation Request use case� Transactions that normally take place in an SAP interface can instead be

executed in other applications with which end users are more comfortable.

� An end user could request a vacation by blocking out the time in his Outlook calendar.

� This action would trigger a leave request that would be routed through the company's systems using all the rules within the SAP application.

� Managers could approve or reject the request much as they would a meeting request in Outlook.

� Customer Relationship Management / Insurance use case � A call center agent at an insurance company might receive a call from

someone who wants to insure a diamond ring.

� The agent collects basic information about the potential customer and enters it into an SAP-based insurance underwriting application.

� Through a presenceclient integrated with the application, the call center agent will then be able to see a list of the company's insuranceunderwriters.

� Then through an immediate instant messaging session or a phone call, the agent goes over the basics of the prospect with the underwriter to determine whether the company will insure the ring.

� The customer get a real-time answer -- yes or no


Unified Communication / Challenges

� UC is an emerging area

� Salespeople don’t yet have a ‘winning formula’for driving signatures for UC solutions

� Diversity of factors making competitive selling difficult

� Not just the traditional competitors, but new competitors as well

� New competitive offerings emerging constantly

� New buying centers (Telecom + IT)

� Customer value metrics for UC are not fully understood, making it difficult to position the Unique Selling Propositions of a UC offer

� No compelling differentiation longer sales cycles, lost business


Agenda



- Products


- Competitive Landscape - Market Trend


33

Messaging & Collaboration Vendors

Enterprise ApplicationVendors

Service

Providers

• IM and conferencing• P2P VOIP• Content & workflow mgt

• Hosted IP Telephony & messaging• Public IM & VOIP services• Fixed-mobile convergence• Future IMS based services

• Presence, IM, & collaboration add-ins• Collaboration suites• Contextual collaboration

PBX & Voice SystemsVendors

Unified Communications

• IP Telephony systems• Presence engines• Unified Comms suites

Unified Communication / Competition market

�But several IT and communications domains are fighting for control


Unified Communication / Telephonic centric Approach

� Strategy� IP PBX and UM are viewed as the starting point for UC

capabilities. � The functionality offered is telephony-centric, and not all the

functions associated with UC are available.� These solutions are extensions of IP-PBX and UM products. In

some cases, UM is tightly integrated with the PBX, the two are offered by separate vendors

� Partnership with desktop application vendors is mandatory

� Strengths� Voice expertise� Installed base

� Weaknesses� Ecosystem lacks application � Solution selling capability

� Maturity� These products, as offered by the leading telephony vendors,

are mature� They have been on the market since the late 1990s, so the best

practices around deployment and use are established.


Unified Communication / Messaging & Collaboration Approach

� Strategy

� With presence as the backbone, UC makes this set of communications capabilities available from within the business processes and applications that information workers use most.

� their software solutions are likely to be positioned to replace much of the call control functionality that currently resides inthe PBX hardware

� Strengths

� Own the desktop user interface (around 95%)

� Strong IT relationships

� Leader in collaboration and a footprint in business apps

� Ability to support heterogeneous IT environments and PBX

� Weaknesses

� Ecosystem lacks business telephony expertise

� “One size fits all” box-shifting orientation

� Maturity

� They are quite mature for small businesses but have not proved their scalability or reliability for large enterprises


Unified Communication / Service Providers Approach

� Strategy

� Mobility and Conferencing are viewed as the heart of UC.

� This approach integrates on-premises and service offerings, and has its roots in a range of network-based service solutions.

� Strengths

� Network is coordination point for UC

� PBX reseller relationships

� Global providers enable access points in all regions

� Weaknesses

� Lack IT relationships

� Some of the confidentiality, security, reliability and best practices are not well understood

� Maturity

� Although application service provider and hosted solutions have been available for several years, they have proved inadequate for addressing the full set of enterprise needs.


Unified Communication / Enterprise Application Approach

� Strategy

� Integration of communication into vertical and horizontal application (CEBP)

� Integration of social network

� Partnership/acquisition with infrastructure vendors

� Strengths

� Significant market presence

� Financially secure

� Middleware expertise

� Weaknesses

� Although some individual components are mature, the overall solution is in an early stage, is fragmented and has not yet matured as a consolidated UC solution

� Enterprise telephony and IM (SDP) are primarily hosted; however, premise solutions are available, although they are deployed less

� Maturity

� Not yet matured as a consolidated UC solution


Unified Communication / Forecasts

� Quantifying the UC market is extremely difficult, as there are various ways of defining UC, and each definition brings with it a different way to measure the market.

� UC revenues are expected to rise from $11.7 B in 2008 to $15.0 B in 2013, yielding a 4.9% 5-year CAGR

� The components or elements included in this forecast are Enterprise Instant Messaging/Presence, IP PBXs, Unified Messaging, Conferencing/Collaboration, UC PBX Integration and other (including soft phone).

� The components showing the strongest growth during the forecast period are enterprise IM/Presence, and UC PBXDell ORO Jan09


Conclusion

� Unified Communications is all the rage.

� The real ROI comes from when UC is tied to business processes but it is not essential to reach that phase to reap significant benefits from UC.

� While there are clearly many benefits to UC, there are also significant challenges that must be overcome in order for the market to reach its potential.

� No one single vendor provides all of the UC elements for a complete UC solution so each vendor should re-evaluate its role and forge alliances

� The first vendor that will successfully design, sell, and deploy UC solutions, will be in a position to lock in value-added customer revenue for years and years to come


Wireless Network evolution toward native IP

IP Transformation for the Carrier

Broadband access for next-genservices.


Agenda

Partie 2 : IP Transformation for Carrier business

1. Situation Overview2. Migration paths




Wireless Environment Evolution

•Mobile services evolve

•from simple voice

•to the enhanced services

•This evolution is driving the standards from 2G to 3G and eventually to 4G.

•Backhaul evolution

•in a cost effective way

•increased bandwidth continues to rise.


3G Multimedia and throughput trend

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

'07 Q3 '07 Q4 '08 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3

Parc Multimedia

Parc 3G

SIM internet


Revenues Vs Traffic increase – How to maintain profitability?

This is driving the move to a packet-based infrastructure, which is key to minimizing

costs and providing a means for the migration to an all-IP

network.


Agenda

Partie 2 : IP Transformation for Carrier business1. Situation Overview

2. Migration paths3. IP Transformation drivers



All-IP Migration Vs IP Overlay

All-IP Migration

The all-IP migration approach mandates a flash-cut approach consistent with a total network replacement model.

Nevertheless, even in a single next-generation network configuration, with no legacy switching cited as aligned with the all-IP option, it does not involve a single flash-cut, but rather consists of an orderly timeline of TDM replacement.

Beware of the cost in testing the multitude of possible combinations in migrating the traditional services such as Frame and ATM to Ethernet and IP with or without inter-working functions in between.

The issue is not "if" wireless operators will move to an all-IP Radio Access Network (RAN), but when?


All-IP Migration Vs IP Overlay (2)

IP Overlay

• In the IP-overlay scenario, the network operator simply deploys an IP network in addition to its TDM infrastructure.

• Legacy services are supported via a silo model. TDM customers are not able to gain access to new multimedia services.

The issue is not "if" wireless operators will move to an all-IP Radio Access Network (RAN), but when?


NGN Vs IMS

• 6 layers:

• Application: added value services

• Call Processing: call management

• Transport: ATM or IP based

• Adaptation and connection through media gateway

• Access: Link between end users and the network.

• Terminals


NGN Vs IMS

Many operators that initially deploy NGN soft-switch-based solutions continue to view transition to IMS as a mandatory step. Furthermore, closely aligned in standards, evolving from soft-switch to era of IMS is well defined but does introduced a second cutover phase.

• 5 layers:

• Application: added value services

• Call Processing: call management and session control on the PS domain

• Transport: IP based

• Access: Link between end users and the network.

• Terminals: SIP enablers.


Impact of All-IP in the access

• IP Access Transport Network

• Cost reduction by reducing E1/T1 leasing.

• Additional bandwidth

• Voice and data on a common facility

• Impacts of Femto Cells

• Introduced in 2005 3GPP, concept of a small based intelligent wireless radio access node.

• Provide mobile carriers with the technology to compete with fixed network operators.

• SIP-enabled, extremely well suited to integration within IMS architectures

• UMTS Beyond rel-8, LTE and Wimax

• Delivery of broadband to the wireless end-user, equivalent to fixed network broadband capabilities.

• Provide mobile carriers with the technology to compete with fixed network operators.


Agenda


2. Migration paths

3. IP Transformation drivers4. Beyond IP Transformation


What will drive the IP strategy?

• Requires feature transparency and therefore higher capex costs

• New service revenue not known

• Control and plan site transition => cost are driven

• Faster decommissioning of legacy network.

Carrier driven

(Based on provider schedule)

• Rapid adoption could cause extreme workload=> higher opex

• Lack of control of site conversion

• Lower initial capex

• Greater customer tolerance for transition issues

Subscriber driven

(End users opt for IP-Based services)

Trade-offsBenefitsModel


Agenda


2. Migration paths




Beyond IP transformation

Wireline and Wireless operator convergence

• Disruptive technologies allow identical services (e.g. VoIP) used by wireless operators and fixed operators.

• Leveraging of the IP backhaul

• Leveraging of services and applications in both access

• Probably for full benefit of the end-user by enabling the mix of both mobile and landline services.


Conclusion: from an IP migration to a profitable business

Application widening makes a better network… and requires a better network

QoS will bring added-value

Groupe Professionnel SI et Telecom · • Jean-Marc Jarlier (Bouygues Telecom) – 6 Avril :...

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