geopolitika - GFSIS · 2019. 8. 6. · geopolitika. globaluri da regionuli araprognozirebadobis...

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geopolitika

ivliane xaindrava

saqarTvelo cvalebad geopolitikur

realobaSimsoflioSi dRes Seqmnili viTarebis dasaxasiaTeblad zogi iyenebs sityvebs „gaurkvev-

loba“ (uncertainty) an ̀ araprognozirebadoba~ (unpredictability), zogi ki mrisxane metaforas –

„axali civi omi“ (cold war-2.0), terminologiuri kamaTis gverdis avliT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom

es sxvadasxva xedva urTierTSemavsebelia: dasavlur (Tavisufal, liberalur-demokrati-

ul...) samyaros dRes marTlac ebrZvian, xolo mimdinare omis SesaZlo Sedegebis Taobaze

namdvilad arsebobs gaurkvevloba, romelsac ramdenime garemoeba asazrdoebs, kerZod:

1. civi omis pirveli versiisgan gansxvavebiT, dasavleTs axla uteven ara mxolod aRmosav-

leTidan, aramed CrdiloeTidan da samxreTidanac; 2. uteven sxvadasxva (nebismieri) meTo-

disa da xerxis gamoyenebiT, ris gamoc amJamindel oms hibridulsac (hybrid warfare) uwode-

ben xolme; 3. dasavlur samyaros metismetad (dauSveblad) gaugrZelda pirvel civ omSi ga-

marjvebiT gamowveuli eiforiis periodi (ybadaRebuli „istoriis dasasruli“...), ris ga-

moc igi demobilizebuli daxvda mutaciagancdil mters.

ìstoriis dasasruli da ukanask-neli adamiani~ – frensis fukuiamas gaxmaurebuli naSromi, romlis mixedvi-Tac sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg mTel msoflioSi liberaluri demokra-tiis gamarjveba kacobriobis politi-kuri ganviTarebis logikuri dasasru-lia. fukuiamas Tezisi jorj buSis (ufrosis) axali msoflio wesrigis Teoriul da-sabuTebas warmoadgenda. fuku-iama liberalur demokratias faqtobrivad aigivebs kapita-lizmTan, romelic erTa-derT globalur sistemad rCeba da aRar Seicvleba.

mcocavi gaurkvevloba/araprognozi-

rebadoba gansakuTrebiT saxifaToa ise-

Ti qveynisTvis, rogoricaa dasavleTTan

TviTidentificirebuli saqarTvelo, ro-

melic geografiulad mdebareobs urTi-

erTmopaeqre msoflmxedvelobebisa da in-

teresebis Sejaxebis zonaSi, araa koleq-

tiuri usafrTxoebis dasavluri sistemis

wevri da jer ar dausrulebia sakuTari

saxelmwifoebriobis formatirebis pro-

cesi.

marTalia, dasavleTi kvlavindeburad

uswrebs metoqeebs mravalquliani upira-

tesobiT, Tumca ideebis naklebobasa da

gunduri disciplinis moSlis niSnebs av-

lens:

dezorganizaciis stadiaSia Sesuli ev-

ropa („breqsiTi“ da sxva ryevebi), sadac

gafermkrTalda gamaerTianebeli idea,

„samagierod“ sul ufro intensiur Sefe-

rilobas iRebs gamyofi xazebi (migrante-

bi, safinanso-ekonomikuri politika...);

SemaSfoTebeli viTarebis gamomwvevi

mizezebis mTeli kompleqsis siRrmiseuli

kvleva araa winamdebare statiis mizani; am

viTarebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebis erT

CamonaTvalSi Tavmoyra ki sasargebloa

globaluri samiD suraTis dasanaxad.

`breqsiti~(Brexit) – ori sityvis – Britain- isa�(britaneTi) da Exit-is(gasvla) SeerTebiT mi-Rebuli termini, romelic aRniSnavs britaneTis gasvlas evrokavSiris Semadgenlobidan. 2016 wlis 23 ivniss did britaneTSi gaimarTa referen-dumi, romelzec daisva erTaderTi kiTxva – ùn-da darCes Tu ara gaerTianebuli samefo evrokav-SirSi?~, ori savaraudo pasuxiT – `ki~ da àra~. referendumi moiTxoves gaerTianebuli samefos imJamindeli premier-ministris, devid kameronis partiis – konservatorebis memarjvene frTam (Tavad premier-ministri da partiis liderebis umravleloba darCenas uWerdnen mxars) da gaer-Tianebuli samefos damoukideblobis partiis wevrebma. moTxovnis safuZvels is warmoadgenda, rom 1975 wlis Semdeg, rodesac referendumiT britanelebma mxari dauWires evropis ekonomi-kur TanamegobrobaSi wevrobas (britaneTi masSi 1973 wels gawevrianda) evrokavSiri mniSvnelov-nad Seicvala. referendumSi monawile mosaxleo-bis 51,9 procentma mxari dauWira evrokavSiridan gasvlas. britaneTs evrokavSiri 2019 wlis 29 marts unda daetovebina.

BREXIT

79

saqarTvelo geopolitikur realobaSi

aSS-is araordinaruli prezidenti aqtiurad da sworxazovnad Seudga Tavisi samoqmedo

programis mTavari postulatis – „amerika upirveles yovlisa“ (America first) – xorcSesxmas,

aRiarebs urTierTobebis mxolod ormxriv formatebs da ugulebelyofs mravalmxrivs

(aSS gaiyvana parizis klimaturi SeTanxmebidan da gaeros adamianis uflebebis sabWodan, ag-

debulad moekida didi Svideulis (G7) samits), ar gaurbis arc mwvave Sefasebebs (politko-

reqtuloba misi stili araa) da arc mkveTr nabijebs (rac ver sZens mas axal mokavSireebs,

Zvelebs ki afrTxobs). am kursis Tanmxlebi Tu saboloo Sedegebis avkargianobaze damkvir-

veblebs erTmniSvnelovani pasuxi ar eZebnebaT.

saerTo-evropul solidarobas uWirs TiTqos ukve sabolood daZleuli erovnuli egoiz-

mis (egoizmebis) Sekaveba; „klasikuri“ partiebi krizisSi arian da zogan axalgamoCekil po-

pulistebs uTmoben poziciebs (italia, germania), sxvagan ki inarCuneben xelisuflebas

fundamenturad miCneuli faseulobebisTvis zurgis SeqceviT (ungreTi, poloneTi); aSka-

raa Tanamedrove globalizebuli gamowvevebis adekvaturi, TvalsaCino (gamoCenilze rom

aRaraferi vTqvaT) liderebis deficiti.

es ori faqtori mniSvnelovanwilad ganapirobebs politikuri dasavleTis erTianobis

rRvevas (dekonsolidacias) – dasavleTs sul ufro uWirs erTiani poziciis Camoyalibeba

mniSvnelovan saerTo problemebze (rogoricaa, magaliTad, iranis birTvuli programis mi-

marT gansxvavebuli damokidebuleba), sul ufro metad scdeba erTmaneTs ekonomikuri

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geopolitika

81


prioritetebi (ramac aSS da evrokavSiri e.w. „savaWro omis“ zRurblTan miiyvana), evrokav-

Siri amoZravda Tavdacva/usafrTxoebis sakuTari sistemis Camoyalibebis mimarTulebiT

(aRsaniSnavia, rom safrangeTis prezident e. makrons miaCnia, rom saWiroa „namdvili evro-

puli armia~, raTa ̀ davicvaT Tavi CineTis, ruseTisa da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebisganac

ki~, ix.: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46108633 06.11.2018), rac daazaralebs natos

prestiJsa da SesaZleblobebs. urTierTpativiscema da solidaroba atlantis okeanis or

napirs Soris urTierTundoblobas uTmobs adgils. amgvarad, cneba (koleqtiuri) „dasav-

leTi“ erozias ganicdis: evropa sxvaa, aSS – sxva. metic, fragmentirebulia sakuTriv evro-

pa – sakuTari dRis wesrigiT xelmZRvaneloben evroskeptikosebi da evroenTuziastebi, an-

tiamerikelebi da proamerikelebi, antimigrantebi da promigrantebi – da dabzarul minaSi

danaxul landSafts emsgavseba.

migrantebi evropaSi

antimigrantebis gamosvla briuselSi emanuel makroni

es yovelive xdeba ganviTarebadi ideologiuri krizisis fonze, roca dasavluri libe-

ralur-demokratiuli weswyobilebis orive sayrdeni moirya. warmatebuli winsvlis aT-

wleulebiT frTaSesxmulma liberalizmma ver gamoavlina zomiereba da windaxeduleba,

ukiduresobebSi gadaeSva, sadac SiSveli mefis mdgomareobaSi aRmoCnda (Tundac evropaSi

Sinnazardi islamuri radikalebisa da teroristebis fenomenis gaCena rad Rirs!). migran-

tebis nakadebma sazogadoebis mozrdili nawilis erTxans moguduli ukmayofileba kriti-

kul masas miuaxlova da nacionalizmis kontrSetevam liberaluri internacionalizmis mi-

er evropaSi „kontrolirebadi teritoriis“ swrafi Sekveca gamoiwvia. paralelurad ki,

stagnaciis fazaSi Sesulma warmomadgenlobiTma demokratiam gamoSignul-damyayebuli

zeerovnuli mmarTveli klasi Sva, romelmac TanamemamuleebTan komunikaciis ena daiviwya.

amitomacaa, rom termini „populisti“, romelsac nebismieri problemis swrafad da marti-

vad mogvarebis dapirebis gamcemi upasuxismgeblo politikosebis dasaxasiaTeblad iyeneb-

dnen xolme, nel-nela sxva, mis etimologiaSi Cadebul, mniSvnelobas iZens. degradirebul-

ma elitam sakuTari uideoba/umweobis SeniRbva farisevluri dakanonebiT scada, riTac re-

aluri da momravlebuli problemebi aramc Tu ver mogvarda, aramed gamZafrda kidec. ri-

giTi evropelebis (da amerikelebis) nawili kidev ufro gauucxovda politikur meinstrims

(an, sulac, aujanyda mas) da Sedegmac ar daayovna: warmomadgenlobiToba dasavleTis qvey-

nebis parlamentebSi iseTma jgufebma moipoves, romelTa wevrebsac adre gamarjobas ar

eubnebodnen quCaSi Sexvedrisas.

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CineTis armia

geopolitika

ruseTis armia

ruseTma (pirobiTi CrdiloeTi) Zveli (ssrk-is droindeli) „didebis“ aRdgenis mcde-

lobaSi jer mosazRvre qveynebSi (saqarTvelo, ukraina), Semdeg ki ufro Sors (siria) sam-

xedro Zalis gamoyeneba ar ikmara, miarTva ra dasavleTsa da masze orientirebul qveynebs

gamowveva/usiamovnebebis uzarmazari hibriduli `Taiguli“. morigi rusuli laSqari Ta-

visuflebis winaaRmdeg putinma „konservatizmis“ uniformaSi gamoawyo, raki kremli amje-

rad tradiciuli faseulobebis – dasavleTis politkoreqtuli elitis mier zurgSeqceu-

li qristianuli rwmenis, homofobiiT uxvad Sezavebuli ojaxis, imperiul nostalgiaze

namyeni patriotizmis – damcvelad warmoaCens Tavs; arcTu uSedegod, radgan dasavleTis

populisturi yaidis kontrelitaSi ara mxolod putinis ideologiuri narativebi, aramed

mmarTvelobis agresiuli da avtoritaruli stilic ki mouvidaT TvalSi.

CineTi (pirobiTi aRmosavleTi) mizanmimarTulad afarToebs Tavisi ekonomikuri

gavlenis areals da zrdis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis potencials, rac avtomaturad aisaxeba

politikuri poziciebis gaZlierebaSi. „Cinuri modelis“ ekonomikuri warmateba bevris-

Tvis gadafaravs am modelis naklovan faseulobiT/adamianur ganzomilebas, sadac „Tavis-

ufleba“ da „demokratia“ sityvis masaladac ki naklebad gamoiyeneba. erTpartiul sistem-

aSi aRdga erTpirovnuli mmarTvelobis SesaZlebloba (2018 wlis martSi gauqmda Canaweri

konstituciaSi, romelic zRudavda qveynis meTauris postze erTi piris yofnas ori xuT-

wliani vadiT ), rac aqezebs ufro mcire masStabis uzurpatorebs maT avtoritarul/diqta-

torul midrekilebebSi.

83


islamur samyaroSi (pirobiTi samxreTi) ganviTarebuli procesebi TvalsaCinod aisaxa

„arabul gazafxulad“ (ratomRac) wodebul movlenebsa da `did axlo aRmosavleTSi~ da-

sadgurebul yovlismomcvel qaosSi (erayi, siria, iemeni). samoqalaqo/saxelmwifoTaSoris

konfliqtebSi politikuri da ekonomikuri motivebis miRma siRrmiseuli religiuri dapi-

rispireba (an piriqiT) ikiTxeba: sxvadasxva yaidis sunitebi da Siitebi ebrZvian erTmaneTs,

xolo salafitebi erTsac da meoresac eomebian da kidev – mTel danarCen kacobriobas. li-

derobisTvis am samyaroSi sxvadasxva formiT paeqroben arabebi, sparselebi da Turqebi; aq

mniSvnelovan rols asruleben e.w. „arasaxelmwifo moTamaSeebi“ – al-qaida, xalifati, hez-

bola, Talibani, husitebi (qurTebis dajgufebebs saxelmwifo da arasaxelmwifo moTamaSe-

ebs Soris Sualeduri mdgomareoba ukaviaT); politikuri islamis „inkubatorSi“ ki iCekebi-

an teroristebi, romlebic umowyalod xocaven swored islamis („araswor“) mimdevrebs,

Tumca dasavleTi maTTvis mainc yvelaze sanukvar (kacTmoZule ambiciebis damakmayofile-

bel) samizned rCeba.

islamuri xalifati, anu islamuri saxelmwifo, aseve moixsenieba, rogorc erayisa da le-vantis islamuri saxelmwifo, erayisa da Samis/siriis islamuri saxelmwifo an daeSi – sunit jihadistTa teroristuli organizacia eraysa da siriaSi; akontrolebda erayis, siriis, li-banis nawils, teritoriebs nigeriaSi, avRaneTsa da CrdiloeT afrikaSi. 2014 wels islamuri saxelmwifos liderma abu baqr albaRdadim msoflio jihadi da saxalifos daarseba gamoac-xada. organizaciam didi ziani moutana msoflios.

hezbola (agreTve cnobili rogorc hezbolahi, hesbola, hisbola) – libanel SiitTa tero-ristuli dajgufeba, aerTianebs politikur frTas da SeiaraRebul frTas. Camoyalibda 1980-iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi, SiitebiT dasaxlebuli bekaas muhafazaSi, israelis li-banSi SeWris sapasuxod.

Talibani – islamuri fundamentalisturi politikur-religiuri propuStunTa moZra-oba, romelic TiTqmis mTel avRaneTs marTavda 1996-2001 wlebSi.

husitebi – Siiti-zeiditebis gasamxedroebuli dajgufeba, moqmedebs iemenis teritoriaze.

„al-kaida“ – islamisturi teroristuli organizaciebis transnacionaluri qseli, bra-lad edeba teraqtebis mowyoba msoflios sxvadasxva kuTxeSi (yvelaze gaxmaurebuli, magali-Tad, aSS-Si e.w. 11 seqtembris (2001) teraqti).

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geopolitika

aqa-iq planetaze navardoben sxvadasxva masStabis „politikuri xulignebi“ (kim Cen ini,

asadi, maduro-Cavesi...), rac Tavsatkivars warmoadgens swored dasavleTisa (upirvele-

sad – aSS-sTvis) da misi partniorebisTvis („aradasavleTisTvis“ isini sasargeblo SfoTis-

Tavebi arian). es faqtoric iwvevs demokratiuli Zalebisa da resursebis daqsaqsvas, xanda-

xan ki warmoSobs unayofo da usasrulo kamaTs imis Taobaze, Tu ra gzebiT unda mogvardes

esa Tu is lokaluri problema.

kim Cen ini baSar al-asadi nikolas maduro

Sida da gare gamowvevebiT daxunZlu-

li evrokavSiris SesaZleblobebi sagareo

asparezze dRiTidRe mcirdeba;

amrigad, XXI saukunis damdegidan glo-

baluri masStabiT ganviTarebuli proce-

sebi aramdgradobis gamomwvevi Semdegi

mdgradi (sul mcire, saSualovadian pers-

peqtivaSi) tendenciebis erTobliobaze

migvaniSnebs:

aSS-is, rogorc planetis upirobo li-

deris, avtoriteti (moraluri da poli-

tikuri) sustdeba;

dasavluri samyaros xerxemali – evro-

pa-aSS-is kavSiri ifiteba, myifdeba da mo-

wina saukunis miwuruls triumfato-

rad miCneuli dasavleTi „uceb“ rTuli da

mravalgvari problemebis winaSe aRmoCn-

da;

Seirya rwmena imisa, rom dasavluri

cxovrebis wesi, Tavisi upiratesobis rbi-

li ZaliTa da globalizaciis meSveobiT,

adre Tu gvian mTel kacobriobas moicavs;

fragmentirebulma dasavleTma dakar-

ga iniciativa da arsebuli poziciebis Se-

narCunebiTRa Semoifargleba manamde,

vidre sakuTar wiaRSive ar gamoimuSavebs

ganaxlebis, ganviTarebisa da rekonsoli-

daciis mZlavr impulsebs.

dasavlur samyaros ara(anti)dasavlu-

ris mxridan seriozuli da mzardi (egzis-

tenciuri?) gamowvevebi daudga;

texilobis riskic sagrZnoblad izrdeba

(America first angrevs `koleqtiur dasav-

leTs~ iseve, rogorc, vTqvaT, Deutschland

zuerst (anu germania upirveles yovlisa)

Riad deklarireba umal aafeTqebda Sig-

nidan evrokavSirs);

85


ugo Cavesi

am proeqtis `sagareo Semadgenels~ –

evroatlantikur struqturebSi gawev-

rianebas – obieqturi xasiaTis dabrkole-

ba daxvda: rogorc zemoT iTqva, mimdinare

etapze natoca da evrokavSiric ufro sa-

kuTari erTianobisa da qmedunarianobis

SenarCunebaze arian fokusirebuli, vid-

re Semdgom gafarToebaze. Sesabamisad,

usafrTxoebis uzrunvelsayofad da ke-

TildReobis misaRwevad saqarTvelom

eqskluziurad evroatlantikuri dRis

wesrigiT ar unda SeizRudos Tavi. stra-

tegiuli orientaciis/kursis Seucvle-

lad saWiroa damatebiTi resursebis moZi-

eba da mobilizeba, gaurkvevlobisa Tu

araprognozirebadobis periodTan dakav-

Sirebuli riskebis minimizeba da sruli

mzadyofna (Cvengan momdinare teqnikuri

xasiaTis yvela dabrkoleba/sababis winda-

win moxsna) im momentisTvis, roca gaumjo-

besebuli politikuri koniunqtura evro-

atlantikur fanjaras SeaRebs. xolo im

SemTxvevaSi, Tuki procesebi kidev erT-

xans negatiuri scenariT ganagrZobs gan-

ai, amgvar saerTaSoriso viTarebaSi

uwevT saqarTvelos moqalaqeebs sakuTa-

ri „uryevi nebis“ xorcSesxma da iseTi da-

moukidebeli, socialuri da samarTleb-

rivi saxelmwifos Seneba, sadac demokra-

tiuli sazogadoebrivi weswyobileba da

ekonomikuri Tavisuflebaa, daculia ada-

mianis sayovelTaod aRiarebuli ufleba-

ni da Tavisuflebani da sxva xalxebTan

mSvidobiani urTierTobis pirobebSi igi

evropuli da evroatlantikuri struq-

turebis wevrobisken miiswrafis, rac ke-

TildReobisa da erovnuli usafrTxoebis

sawindradaa miCneuli (saqarTvelos kons-

tituciisa da erovnuli usafrTxoebis

koncefciis Tanaxmad). faseulobebisa da

miznebis es erToblioba arsebiTad `ev-

ropuli saxelmwifos~ koncefts warmo-

adgens, rac damoukideblobis periodSi

qarTul nacionalur proeqtad Camoya-

libda.

2017 wlis ivnisSi montenegro natos 29-e wevri gaxda, riTic aliansma `Ria karis politikis~ mi-marT erTguleba daadastura, Tumca sakuTriv am karis migneba kidev ufro gaurTulda maZieb-lebs. evrokavSiri ki oficialurad dakavda da-savleT balkaneTiT, sul mcire – 2025 wlamde.

viTarebas, unda SevZloT qveynisa da eris

gadarCena (survival), suverenitetisa da

TviTmyofobis SenarCuneba.

dilemis gadasaWrelad misaRwevia im-

gvari modus vivendi, roca saqarTvelos

arseboba ufro xelsayreli/momgebiania

gare samyarosTvis, vidre misi gaqroba,

rogorc damoukidebeli saxelmwifosi.

anu iseTi saqarTvelos arseboba, rogo-

ric moxazulia nacionaluri proeqtiT,

ara mxolod megobrebisa da mezoblebis,

aramed metoqeebis interesebSic ki unda

iyos.

aseTi modusis safuZvelSia (1) saqarT-1velos geografiuli mdebareoba da (2) sa-

xelmwifos xasiaTi. adgilmdebareobis ga-

mo saqarTvelo „sWirdeba“ rogorc orive

samxreTkavkasiel mezobels (somxeTsa da

azerbaijans), ise kavkasiis samive mosazRv-

re saxelmwifos (TurqeTs, ruseTs, irans).

warmosaxviTi qaosi saqarTveloSi myisier

da sagrZnob problemebs uqmnis TiToe-

uls (sxvaze naklebs – irans), xolo saqar-

Tvelos moqceva romelimes (ruseTis, an,

vTqvaT, TurqeTis) ganuyofeli gavlenis

1 statiis dasawyisSi Cveni geografiuli adgilmdebareoba riskfaqtoradaa moxseniebuli, magram winaaRm-degoba aq araa – igi gamowvevacaa da SesaZleblobac.

86

geopolitika

globaluri da regionuli araprognozirebadobis fonze saqarTvelom sakuTari pozi-

tiuri prognozirebadoba Tavis mTavar argumentad unda aqcios – qveynis orientacia dro-

sa da sivrceSi, eris fundamenturi faseulobebi da prioritetebi stabiluri fenomenebia

da ar icvleba xelisuflebis cvlilebis kvaldakval.

qveS fundamenturad daarRvevs ZalTa arsebul balanss da damrRvevis mimarT danarCenebis

ukmayofilebas gamoiwvevs. sakmarisia gavixsenoT, rom 2008 wels (roca ruseTis agresia sa-

qarTvelos winaaRmdeg mainc SezRudul xasiaTs atarebda) kremlis arc erTma regionulma

mokavSirem ar dauWira mas mxari da dRemde arc erT maTgans ar uRiarebia afxazeTi da cxin-

valis regioni/samxreT oseTi. geografiuli faqtoris gamo saqarTvelo mniSvnelovania

rogorc dasavleTisTvis (evropa, aSS), ise aRmosavleTisTvis (centraluri azia, CineTi).

qarTuli saxelmwifos xasiaTi ki SinaarsiT avsebs pirvel garemoebas: igi mSvidobismoy-

vare (militarizaciis kuTxiT saqarTvelo bevrad CamorCeba yvela Tavis mezobels da sa-

Sualoevropuli maCvenebeli aqvs. https://www.bicc.de/uploads/tx–bicctools/GMI–2017–.pdf), ke-

Tilmezoblobasa da TanamSromlobaze orientirebuli, Ria (98 saxelmwifos moqalaqeebs

SeuZliaT saqarTveloSi uvizod Semosvla) da keTilganwyobili qveyanaa; misi ambiciebi

araa safrTxis matarebeli romelime mezoblisTvis; igi monawilea mravali mniSvnelovani

saerTaSoriso satransporto da energetikuli proeqtisa, mimzidvelia turistebisTvis;

saqarTveloSi biznesis keTeba martivia, korufciis done da gadasaxadebi – dabali, Tavis-

uflebis xarisxi – maRali. yvela am faqtoris erToblioba momgebianad gamoarCevs

saqarTvelos yvela misi mezoblisgan.

saqarTvelo

ruseTi

TurqeTisomxeTi azerbaijani

irani

Savi zRva kaspiis zRva

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saqarTvelosTvis sakuTari mniSvnelobis saTanadod warmoCenasTan erTad, dauSvebe-

lia Tavisi SesaZleblobebis gadaWarbebiT Sefaseba (rac ukve momxdara Cvens uaxles isto-

riaSi). saqarTvelo ar miekuTvneba im qveynebis rigs, vinc saerTaSoriso asparezze TamaSis

wesebs adgens an ixeirebs wesebis gareSe TamaSisgan. Cven ver mivcemT Tavs uflebas, vimoqme-

doT saerTaSoriso koniunqturis gauTvaliswineblad, vixelmZRvaneloT dogmebiT an er-

Ti wamiT mainc davkargoT realobis adekvaturi aRqma. strategiuli amocanebis gadasawy-

vetad saWiroa moqnili taqtika; sagareo-politikuri miznebis misaRwevad saWiroa Sesaba-

misi mdgomareobis Seqmna-SenarCuneba-ganviTareba qveynis SigniT. yvela is zemoCamoTvli-

li faqtori, romelic saqarTvelos pozitivs gansazRvravs, uwyvet daxvewa/ganmtkicebas 2moiTxovs; saqarTvelos rbili Zalis yvela potenciuri komponentis identificireba da

amoqmedeba saerTo amocanaa. qveynis konstituciaSi dafiqsirebuli saqarTvelos moqala-

qeebis „uryevi neba“ politikuri kursis (saSinaosi da sagareos) uryevobis garantiad unda

iyos aRqmuli Sin da gareT.

senator riCard lugaris saxelobis sazogadoebrivi jandacvis kvleviTi centri daavadebaTa kontrolis erovnuli centris referaluri laboratoriaa, romlis daniSnulebaa saSiS daavadebaTa gamomwvevi paTogenebis aRmoCena da identifikacia. ruseTi brals sdebs saqarTvelos (da aSS-s) am laboratoriaSi biologiuri iaraRis SemuSavebaSi ise, rom uars acxadebs oficialur SemoTavazebaze, ewvios da adgilze gaecnos centrSi mimdinare kvlevebs.

saqarTvelos nacionalur proeqts mxolod erTi aSkara mowinaaRmdege hyavs – ruseTi.

warmatebul evropul saxelmwifod saqarTvelos Camoyalibeba TavisTavad aRiqmeba gamow-

vevad (Tundac – periferiuli xasiaTisa) avtoritaruli, revizionisturi, sakuTari moqa-

laqeebis mimarT gulcivi ruseTis (misi winamZRolisa da istebliSmentis) mier. saqarTve-

loze zewolisa da pirdapiri muqaris sababad ruseTi ara faseulobiT gansxvavebebs, ara-

med saqarTvelos natosTan, am ukanasknelis ki ruseTis sazRvrebTan miaxloebas, an, sulac,

e.w. `lugaris laboratorias~ iyenebs, magram amiT muqarisa da Sesabamisi safrTxis serio-

zuloba sulac ar knindeba.

rac Seexeba danarCenebs saqarTvelos

uSualo garemocvidan, koreqtulia daS-

veba, romlis Tanaxmadac, Cveni naciona-

luri proeqtis mimarT ama Tu im mosazre-

biT, metad Tu naklebad, antipaTiurad

ganwyobis SemTxvevaSic ki, isini mzad ari-

an Seeguon mas imdenad, ramdenadac is ar

gaxdeba pirdapiri gamowveva maTi naciona-

luri proeqtebisTvis. swored es mocemu-

loba ganapirobebs samezoblosTan (ruse-

http://regional-dialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/soft-power.pdf

2 ix. mag.: a. dvali, r. qoiava „qarTuli rbili Zala da qveynis brendingi“, kavkasiuri saxli, 2016

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geopolitika

Tis gamoklebiT) Cveni urTierTobebis algoriTms. da swored am konteqstSi unda aRiniS-

nos, rom erTdroulad Cvens orive samxreTkavkasiel mezobelTan partnioruli, dinamiku-

rad ganviTarebadi urTierTobebis SenarCuneba (rac ar yofila da verc iqneba ioli amoca-

na yarabaRis gamo mougvarebel/mougvarebadi konfliqtis pirobebSi) saqarTvelos saga-

reo politikisa da diplomatiis mniSvnelovani miRwevaa da gafrTxilebas saWiroebs. oR-

ond – ara ̀ muxTarlis saqmis~ fasad, romelmac gaaCina kiTxva iq, sadac kiTxvis gaCena dauS-

vebelia – Tu ramdenad uryevia xelisuflebis neba aRasrulos saqarTvelos moqalaqeebis

uryevi neba, icxovron samarTlebriv saxelmwifoSi, sadac daculia adamianis uflebebi.

azerbaijaneli opozicioneri Jurnalisti afgan muxTarli, romelic politikuri motivebiT 2014 wlidan saqarTveloSi cxovrobda, 2017 wlis maisSi Tbilisis centrSi gauCinarda. dRemde gaurkvevelia, Tu ro-gor aRmoCnda igi meore dRes azerbaijanSi, iqauri specsamsaxurebis xelSi. https://cpj.org/data/people/afgan-mukhtarli/index.php

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rac Seexeba ufro Soreul, magram mniSvnelovan partniorebs (CineTi, yazaxeTi, isra-

eli...), aq urTierTobebi pragmatizmis safuZvelze yalibdeba da simpaTia-antipaTia Tu

komforti-diskomfortisTvis adgilic naklebad rCeba.


natoSi gawevrianebis vadac aranaklebi burusiTaa moculi, vidre 2008 wlis gazafxul-

ze iyo, roca saqarTvelom wevrobis dapireba miiRo. amdenad, usafrTxoebis deficitis ga-

re komponenti erTxans SenarCundeba da misi kompensireba SesaZlebelia mxolod Sida da ga-

dabolos – mimdinare etapze evroatlantikur struqturebTan urTierTobebis Taoba-

ze. evrokavSiri imdenadaa Cafluli Sida problemebSi, rom aRmosavleT partniorobis mo-

rigi samitisTvisac ki ver iclis (aRsaniSnavia, rom 2009-Si inicirebidan moyolebuli, sami-

tebi kent wlebSi imarTeboda, 2019-Si ki samitis nacvlad `maRali donis konferencia~ gai-

marTeba https://www.rferl.org/a/no-2019-eastern-partnership-summit-foreseen-busy-post-brexit-

eu/29579392.html). Seqmnili viTareba gaurkvevel momavalSi gadaswevs evrokavSirSi saqarT-

velos gawevrianebas, rac aseve samomavlos gaxdis wevrobidan gamomdinare privilegiebiT

sargeblobis SesaZleblobas. imavdroulad, jer erTi, evrokavSirTan asocirebis Sesaxeb

SeTanxmeba (Tavisufali vaWrobis umniSvnelovanesi komponentiTurT) uzarmazar resurss

Seicavs, romlis mxolod umniSvnelo nawilia jerjerobiT aTvisebuli. mTavari ki isaa, rom

raki gawevrianebis sakiTxi mimdinare dRis wesrigSi ar dgas, Semdgomi daaxloebis ekonomi-

kur segmentSi saqarTvelo Tavisuflebis SedarebiT maRali xarisxiT isargeblebs da meti

Sansi eZleva prioritetebi da vadebi ise gansazRvros, rogorc es mas warmoudgenia, is nor-

mebi da regulaciebi aamoqmedos, romelTa asamoqmedeblad mzad iqneba da romelTa amoqme-

deba uaryofiT gavlenas ar moaxdens qveynis ekonomikaze. arsebiTad, es iqneba evrokavSir-

Si etapobrivi, seqtoraluri gawevrianebis procesi formaluri gawevrianebis samomavlod

gadadebiT. Tanac, amasobaSi gamoCndeba kidec, Tu ra gziT viTardeba sakuTriv evrokavSi-

ri.

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geopolitika

re resursebis maqsimaluri (da kidev meti) mobilizebiT. am TvalsazrisiT, aSS-is mniSvne-

loba saqarTvelosTvis sruliad unikaluria. aSS-saqarTvelos strategiuli partnioro-

bis qartia noyieri niadagia urTierTobebis Semdgomi institucionalizaciisTvis, gansa-

kuTrebiT – vaSingtonis amJamindeli administraciis swored ormxrivi formatebisken mid-

rekilebis pirobebSi. oRondac am formatSi TeTrma saxlma mkafiod unda dainaxos sakuTa-

ri sargebeli. imave usafrTxoebis konteqstSi saqarTvelos xelisuflebisa da misi uaxlo-

esi mokavSireebis amocanaa, rom ruseTis mier saqarTvelosa da ukrainis winaaRmdeg gan-

xorcielebuli agresiis Sedegad Sav zRvaze darRveuli ZalTa balansis aRdgenasTan da-

kavSirebuli problemebis ganxilva, gadawyvetilebebis SemuSaveba da aRsruleba Cveni qve-

ynis uSualo monawileobiT moxdes.

bolodroindeli geopolitikuri procesebi upiratesad uaryofiTi tendenciebiT xa-

siaTdeba, ris gamoc uaxloesi wlebi ar iqneba martivi saqarTvelosTvis. arsebul gamowve-

vebTan da safrTxeebTan gamkvlaveba, sul mcire, or pirobas moiTxovs: gonivrul, konso-

lidirebul politikur-diplomatiur Zalisxmevas gareT da demokratiuli modernizaci-

is Seuqcevad process SigniT. saqarTvelos „saWirooba“ axlo da Soreuli mezoblebisTvis

gazrdis misi usafrTxoebis xarisxs, radgan agresia saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg maTac daaza-

ralebs. Tavisi azrovnebisa da cxovrebis wesiT ki saqarTvelo Tavisufali samyaros orga-

nul nawilad unda iqces. maSin Tavisufal samyaroSi Cveni adgilis formaluri institu-

cionalizaciac – natosa da evrokavSirSi gawevrianeba – aucileblad moxdeba.

aRmosavleT partnioroba (EaP) ewodeba iniciativas, romelic qmnis CarCos evrokavSiris urTierTo-bebisTvis somxeTTan, azerbaijanTan, belarusTan, saqarTvelosTan, moldovasa da ukrainasTan.

aRmosavleT partniorobis TiToeuli qveyana TanamSromlobisa Tu ̀ asocirebis~ sxvadasxva etapzea.

evrokavSiris TanamSromloba aRmosavleT partniorobis qveynebTan sxvadasxva formiT xorcieldeba da moicavs ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebis mraval proeqtsa da programas, e. w. asocirebis pro-cess (calke oficialuri xelSekrulebebi evrokavSirsa da aRmosavleT partniorobis TiToeul qveyanas Soris) da molaparakebebs savizo reJimis liberalizaciisa da Tavisufali savaWro zonebis sakiTxebze.

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