Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the...

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Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Transcript of Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the...

Page 1: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Page 2: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

The Problem- There is an urgent need for effective biodiversity

surrogates in a world with sparse species distribution data.

- Macroecology hypothesises energy availability, evolutionary time, area, geometric constraints and habitat heterogeneity as the main factors influencing richness patterns.

- Habitat heterogeneity has had a very limited treatment.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 3: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

The Problem- There is an urgent need for effective biodiversity

surrogates in a world with sparse species distribution data.

- Macroecology hypothesises energy availability, evolutionary time, area, geometric constraints and habitat heterogeneity as the main factors influencing richness patterns.

- Habitat heterogeneity has had a very limited treatment.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 4: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

The Problem- There is an urgent need for effective biodiversity

surrogates in a world with sparse species distribution data.

- Macroecology hypothesises energy availability, evolutionary time, area, geometric constraints and habitat heterogeneity as the main factors influencing richness patterns.

- Habitat heterogeneity has had a very limited treatment.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 5: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

GEODIVERSITY

Page 6: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

GEODIVERSITYGEOLOGY TOPOGRAPHYPEDOLOGY HYDROLOGY

Page 7: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Why would this work?- Geodiversity is a major control of the

diversity of habitats.

- A more varied landscape will lead to a broader available niche-space for species to fill.

- More available niche space means more species.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 8: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Why would this work?- Geodiversity is a major control of the

diversity of habitats.

- A more varied landscape will lead to a broader available niche-space for species to fill.

- More available niche space means more species.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 9: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Why would this work?- Geodiversity is a major control of the

diversity of habitats.

- A more varied landscape will lead to a broader available niche-space for species to fill.

- More available niche space means more species.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 10: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Why would this work?- Geodiversity is a major control of the

diversity of habitats.

- A more varied landscape will lead to a broader available niche-space for species to fill.

- More available niche space means more species.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Does it work in practice?

Page 11: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Study AreaIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 12: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

SampleIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 13: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 14: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 15: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 16: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 17: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 18: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 19: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 20: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 21: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

DataCell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 22: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Geodiversity

- Sophisticated index.

- Trained on biological data to weight the geodiversity components in the best way for each taxa.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 23: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Observed Predicted Difference

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 24: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 25: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 26: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Total Total - FPlant Amphibians

Birds Butterflies Conifers

Dragonflies FPlantsFerns

Orthoptera Terrestrial MammalsReptiles

Total Total - FPlant Amphibians

Birds Butterflies Conifers

Dragonflies FPlantsFerns

Orthoptera

Terrestrial Mammals

Reptiles

R2 = 0.35 R2 = 0.45 R2 = 0.18 R2 = 0.40

R2 = 0.42 R2 = 0.37 R2 = 0.10 R2 = 0.09

R2 = 0.29 R2 = 0.35 R2 = 0.32 R2 = 0.28

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 27: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Total Total - FPlant

Amphibians Birds

Butterflies Conifers

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 28: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Dragonflies

FPlants

Ferns

Orthoptera

TMamsReptiles

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 29: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Total

Total - FPlant

Amphibians

Birds

Butterflies

Conifers

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 30: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Total

Total - FPlant

Amphibians

Birds

Butterflies

Conifers

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 31: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Dragonflies

FPlants

Ferns

Orthoptera

TMams

Reptiles

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 32: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Dragonflies

FPlants

Ferns

Orthoptera

TMams

Reptiles

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 33: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

AmphibiansIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 34: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

OrthopteraIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 35: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

ReptilesIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 36: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Scalar VariationIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 37: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Scalar VariationIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 38: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Scalar VariationIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 39: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Scalar VariationIntroduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 40: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Scalar Variation

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

R2

Bandwidth (%)

Random

Total

Total - Flowering Plants

Amphibians

Birds

Butterflies

Conifers

Dragonflies

Ferns

Flowering Plants

Orthoptera

Reptiles

Terrestrial Mammals

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 41: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

If you repeat all this with those supplementary variables from earlier…

Page 42: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Cell Name Bird Richness

Latitude Conifer Richness

Longitude Fern Richness

Proportion Lake Flowering Plant Richness

River Diversity Butterfly Richness

Roughness Diversity Dragonfly Richness

Slope Diversity Orthoptera Richness

Aspect Diversity Reptile Richness

Geology Diversity Terrestrial Mammal Richness

Soil Diversity Climate Region

Geodiversity Human Footprint Index

Total Richness Median Elevation

Total Richness - Flowering Plants Elevation Range

Amphibian Richness Land Cover Diversity

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 43: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Richness predictions improveTaxon Group

Geodiversity + Supplementary

RGeodiversity R

Total Richness 0.64 0.35

Total Richness - Flowering Plants 0.74 0.45

Amphibia 0.35 0.18

Birds 0.56 0.42

Butterflies 0.68 0.37

Conifers 0.23 0.1

Dragonflies 0.52 0.29

Ferns 0.56 0.35

Flowering Plants 0.6 0.32

Orthoptera 0.73 0.40

Reptiles 0.25 0.09

Terrestrial Mammals 0.47 0.28

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

Page 44: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Surrogacy curves all shift upward

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

- Surrogacy curve shift upwards.

- However, only the same three taxa reach significance above random selection.

Page 45: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Variance Partitioning

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Total#Richness#

Total#Richness#9#Flow

ering#Plants#

Amphibians#

Birds#

BuFerflies#

Conifers#

Dragonflies#

Ferns#

Flowering#Plants#

Orthoptera#

RepLles#

Terrestrial#Mammals#

Unexplained# Supplementary#Variables# Shared# Geodiversity#Variables#

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Richness

Total Richness - Flowering

Plants

Amphibians Birds Butterflies Conifers Dragonflies Ferns Flowering Plants

Orthoptera Reptiles Terrestrial Mammals

Page 46: Geodiversity and biodiversity: evaluating the surrogacy performance of abiotic heterogeneity in the United Kingdom.

Introduction | Method | Results | Discussion and Conclusion

- Geodiversity is a poor predictor of, and a weak conservation surrogate for, biodiversity in the UK.

- Some authors have suggested that targeting geodiverse areas will help conserve ecological and evolutionary processes, thus protecting biodiversity against climate change.

Discussion and Conclusion