FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts

Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $137.0 billion Imports $3.5 billion to $109.5 billion Surplus $5.5 billion to $27.5 billion

Final Changes For FY 2013 Exports $0.9 billion to $140.9 billionImports $1.2 billion to $103.8 billionSurplus $2.1 billion to $37.1 billion

USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on December 2, 3pm EST

Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

U.S. Agricultural Trade

'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 12 13 14(f)

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130$140$150

Billi

on $

27.5

Exports

Imports

Trade Surplus

Records

137.4 140.9

109.5

37.142.9

Soybean exports surge on higher volumes and prices while corn export values fall

137

Grains and Feeds

Oilseeds Livestock, Poultry, and

Dairy

Cotton Horticultural Products

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 FY 2014 Forecasts

Bill

ion

Do

llars

Au

gu

st

No

vem

ber

-$0.7 Billion+$0.7 Billion

-$0.7 Billion

No Change

November vs. August Commodity Forecasts Higher soybean exports outweigh lower grains and cotton

+$2.4 Billion

Grains and Feeds

Oilseeds Livestock, Poultry, and

Dairy

Cotton Horticultural Products

0

10

20

30

40 FY 2013 Exports vs. 2014 Forecast

Bill

ion

Do

llars

FY

201

3

FY

201

4

-$3.2 Billion

-$1.3 Billion

+$3.1 billion

November FY 2014 Forecast vs. FY 2013 Exports Lower Grains, Oilseeds, and Cotton Offset Gains in LPD and Hort

-$3.2 Billion +$0.3 Billion

Bulk Exports Continue to Slide While High Value Products Nearing Record

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall Forecast down $3.9 Billion from FY 2013

Bulk High Value

Bill

ion

$

$ 46

.2 B

illio

n

$ 42

.9 B

illio

n

$ 94

.7 B

illio

n

$ 94

.1 B

illio

n

Export Volume Recovers

2011 2012 2013 2014f0

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40

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80

100

120

140

160

180

Other*

Soybeans

Feeds

Wheat

Coarse Grains

Mill

ion

Ton

s

146 mmt 166 mmt

*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco

146 mmt130 mmt

Canada and China Vie for Top Market Status

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(f)0

5

10

15

20

25U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico

Bill

ion

Dol

lars

China

Mexico

Canada

Exports Up to China and MexicoChange in FY 2014 Exports from August Forecast

-$100 mil

+$100 mil

+$1.0 bil +$100 mil

+$200 mil

-$100 mil

+$100 mil

+$600 mil

Imports $3.5 billion but remain at a record of 109.5 billion

Tropical Products $1.7 billion – lower imports of coffee , rubber, cocoa, and sugar

Horticultural Products $300 million – demand for fresh fruits and vegetable, processed fruit, wine, and essential oils continues growth

Grain and Oilseeds $1.5 billion –sharply lower U.S. demand for imported corn

Livestock & Dairy $500 million – lower beef and dairy imports expected

Imports are forecast at a record $109.5 billion – down $3.5 billion from the Aug. forecast

FY 2014 Imports

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $28.1 billion $700 million

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13

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41Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug Forecast

Nov Forecast

2014 Key Developments

Wheat volume down–less demand from China and Brazil and competition from Canada. Wheat value down -pressured by record U.S. corn crop. Corn value is down slightly, despite sharply higher volumes. Record U.S. corn crop is pressuring unit values, spurring global import demand.

Wild CardsSouth American corn planting progressSouthern Hemisphere winter wheat cropsChina’s wheat and corn import demand

Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $28.8 Billion $2.4 Billion

Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

2014Key DevelopmentsSoybean volume rises on record early sales and larger production Strong demand boosts soybean and soybean meal prices Soybean meal volume up on record sales paceSoybean oil exports reduced on weakening vegetable oil prices and strong domestic demand for biofuels

Wild Cards China’s soybean import demand Argentina export prospects

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14f

9

13

17

21

25

29

33

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug Forecast

Nov Forecast

Revised FY 2014 Projection : $4.3 Billion $700 million

Export Forecast for Cotton

2014 Key Developments Lower unit values More exportable supply in major competators

Wild Cards China’s reserve policy

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14f

0

2

4

6

8

10Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug Forecast

Nov Projection

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $31.8 Billion $700 Million

Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry

2014Key Developments Pork raised on higher prices with strong Asian demand expected

Beef raised on higher prices with strong global demand and limited supplies

Dairy higher on strong prices and increased export volumes.

Broiler meat lowered slightly on lower prices.

Wild CardsOngoing SPS trade issues

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'14f

10

14

18

22

26

30

34

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug Forecast

Nov Forecast

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.5 Billion

Export Outlook for Horticulture Products Unchanged

2014Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, Europe and China Tree nut exports higher due to strong demand in China and Europe for almonds, pistachios and walnuts

Wild Cards China’s continued growth, particularly for tree nuts, fresh fruit and wine

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14f

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15

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35

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug Forecast

Nov Forecast

Record