Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
description
Transcript of Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
![Page 1: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
Temaer:
Økonomisk/indkomst defineret – eller bredere mål for manglende udfoldelsesmuligheder?
Fattigdomsgrænse, absolut eller relativ? Indkomstbegreber: markedsindkomst, bruttoindkomst, disponibel
indkomst Indkomstenheden – ækvivalensskala justering – stordriftsfordele
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 2: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
Fattigdomsandel/risiko/incidens, entry, exit, varighed, recurrence
Særlige fokusområder Indvandrere og flygtninge fra ikke-vestlige lande Børnefattigdom
Arbejdsmarkedet som ”omdrejningspunkt” ”Fattig på markedsindkomst” – afhængighed af overførselsindkomster –
omfang/varighed Ingen forsikring/ydelse kan ”slå” et job!
Indkomstmobilitet
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 3: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 4: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 5: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
Økonomisk definition – eller bredere? ”Deprivation” – begrænsning på udfoldelsesmuligheder udover
mangel på penge Eks spørgsmål i ECHP:
Ability to make ends meet? Afford replacing worn-out furniture? Having friends or family visit at least once a month? Etc, etc
Bredere mål giver aggregerings/indeks problemer
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 6: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
Absolut fattigdomsgrænse USA – politisk fastlagt og reguleret (inflation? Real regulering?)
Minimumsbudget, laveste offentlige ydelse eller? Relativ fattigdomsgrænse, valg af afskæringspunkt,
50/60 procent af median i fordelingen af (nærmere defineret) indkomst
Ulighedsmål eller fattigdomsmål?
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 7: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten Relativ fattigdom
![Page 8: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten (Vismandsrapporten E06)
![Page 9: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
Very preliminaryApril 18, 2010
A Panel Study of Immigrant Poverty Dynamics –
Denmark, 1984 – 2007.
Peder J. Pedersen
School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University and IZA, Bonn
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 10: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstatenFattigdomsandel, 60 procent af median
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 11: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstatenFattigdomsandel, 60 procent af median
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 12: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstatenEntry rate til status< 60 pct af medianen
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
0.180
0.200
Danes Western immig. Non-Western immig.
![Page 13: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstatenExit rate fra status< 60 pct af medianen
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
Danes Western immig. Non-western immig
![Page 14: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Kaplan-Meier grafer = ”overlevelses-andel” i status < 60 pct af medianen for population i fattigdom i 1986, 1993 og 2002
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1986 1993 2002
![Page 15: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Indikatorer for indkomstmobilitet, 2006 til 2007, 6 oprindelseslande.
(Mobilitet op: andel som skifter fra 2. kvintil til 4. eller 5.. Mobilitet ned: andel i 4. kvintil som skifter til 1. eller 2. kvintil)
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 16: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Mobilitetsindikatorer, 2006 til 2007, ikke-vestlige indvandrere, efter opholdstid
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 17: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Gini koefficienter, 3 befolkningsgrupper, 1984 – 2007.Ækvivalensskala justeret disponibel indkomst
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 18: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
April 30, 2010 – Preliminary Immigration and Welfare State Cash Benefits – The Danish
Case
Peder J. Pedersen
School of Economics and ManagementAarhus University and IZA, Bonn
The empirical part of this study is built on a micro panel data set made available by the Rockwool Foundation Research Unit. I am grateful for the opportunity to work with these data and grateful also for competent research assistance from Katrine Pedersen and Chalotte Bøgesvang.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 19: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Number of immigrants and descendants from non-western countries, 1980 – 2008.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Immigrants, non-western 2. generation, non-western
![Page 20: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Participation rates, Non-western immigrants and natives, 1997 – 2008.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
part. rate, non-western part. rate, natives
![Page 21: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Change in employment rate for non-western immigrant women and native women between 2008 and 2001.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Women, native Women, non-western
![Page 22: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Change in employment rate for non-western immigrant men and native men between 2008 and 2001.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Men, native Men, non-western
![Page 23: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Unemployment rate, all and 16 – 24 years old non-western immigrants and descendants, 1996 – 2007.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Non-western, immig and descendants Non-western immig and descendants, 16-24
![Page 24: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
Indikatorer for kriseårene, feb 2008 til feb 2010:
Antal modtagere af kontanthjælp 35 % op for indfødte 4 % ned for ikke-vestlige indvandrere
Antal modtagere af A-dagpenge 106 % op for indfødte 72 % op for ikke-vestlige indvandrere
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 25: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Benefit ratio intervals. Non-western immigrants, 2001 and 2007.(SBS = (A-dagpenge+Kont.hj. + Sygedagpenge)/bruttoindkomst)
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-0,1 0,1-0,5 0,5-0,8 0,8-1
2001 2007
![Page 26: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Annual benefit ratios (SBS), 2001 – 2007.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 27: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Annual benefit ratios (SBS), 2001 – 2007.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 28: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Relative expenditures on SA benefits (kontanthjælp). Average amounts for individuals in the labor force relative to natives.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
NonW/DK Tur/DK Pak/DK Iraq/DK Bos/DK
![Page 29: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
![Page 30: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Child poverty rates in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Natives and immigrants from middle and low income countries, 1993-2001.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Percent
Native, Norway Native, Sweden Native, Denmark
MLIC, Norway MLIC, Sweden MLIC, Denmark
![Page 31: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Distribution of Children by Number of Periods of Persistent PovertyBy Immigrant Category in Norway, Sweden and Denmark.
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi
Denmark
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Natives HIC MLIC
Percent
0 periods 1 period 2 periods 3 periods
Norway
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Natives HIC MLIC
Percent
0 periods 1 period 2 periods 3 periods
Sweden
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Natives HIC MLIC
Percent
0 periods 1 period 2 periods 3 periods
![Page 32: Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten](https://reader036.fdocument.pub/reader036/viewer/2022062816/56814b92550346895db87651/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Peder J. Pedersen
Fattigdom i velfærdsstaten
Nogle konklusioner: Aggregeret meget lav poverty share, lav entry
rate, høj exit rate MEN gælder ikke for ikke-vestlige indvandrere Polariseret billede:
Arbejdsmarkedsintegrationen: positive træk Men høj afhængighed af velfærdsydelser Og alligevel det store gab ift poverty rates –
forklaring? Langvarig børnefattigdom specielt foruroligende
træk på det lange sigt
A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T E T
Institut for Økonomi