452 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

Hir

Sian

Bauka

Kotla

Kakeai

Malabar

Patesar

SlimpurSialkot

Catwara

Kakeali

Rukhana

RamgarhDoburji

Kharkana

Daluwali

Muradpur

Ghazipur

DangrialRangpuraHirapura

Hajipura Buraneka

Nizampura

Fatehgarh

Wadi Tejar

Brame Chak

Kishnewali

Nawan Pind

Palkhu Nala

Jalphanwali

Malke KalanPakka Garha

Muzaffarpur

Babe di Ber

Doburji Rianda

Mianapura Khurd

Jodhewali Khurd

Jodhewali Kalan

Daluwali Railway Station

NA-111

NA-110

NA-114

NA-112

NA-111

NA-114

NA-110

NA-112

1 inch = 19.73 miles

NA-110 SIALKOT-I

predominantly urban area, NA-110 comprises 21 union 1councils of Sialkot . The Arain, Kashmiri and Sheikh are the largest

2Agroups settled in the area . In significant numbers, the Christians and Sikhs usually vote under the influence of religious

3leaders . Moreover, the industrial elite, along with the heads of local political factions and castes play a central role in mobilizing voters in

4support of a particular party/ candidate .

Figure 2: Registered Voters by Gender 2008-13

Figure 1: Number of Registered Voters 2002 to 2013

247,536 275,969

342,125

2002 2008 2013

53.4% 56.1%46.6% 43.9%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters

Registered Voters: Polling Scheme

Registered Voters: Form-XVII

Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

342,125

342,125

176,294

3,290

179,584

52.5%

Winner's Status: PML-N (3rd Consecutive Win)

Overall Rank by Turnout

Turnout Rank in the Region

Change in Turnout: 2013 Vs. Avg. of 2002-08

Rank by Increase in Turnout

191

134

9.7%

177

Registered Voters

In 2008, the constituency had 275,969 registered voters - 11.5% more than the 247,536 voters in 2002. In 2013, the registered voters increased by another 24% to 342,125.

Voters by Gender

The share of women in total registered voters decreased between 2008 and 2013, indicating a proportionately higher increase in the number of male voters. In 2008, the constituency had 53.4% male and 46.6% female voters. The share of male voters went up to 56.1% in 2013, while female voters accounted for the remaining 43.9%.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Zila' Sialkot: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.392 Ibid3 Ibid4 Ibid

SIALKOT-I NA-110PUNJAB

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Figure 4: Votes Polled 2002 to 2013

Figure 3: Party Share of Votes in 2013 Elections

Figure 5: Comparative Turnout 2002 to 2013

Figure 6: Comparative Party Shares 2002 to 2013

106,083 118,120

179,584

2002 2008 2013

42.9% 42.8%

52.5%

2002 2008 2013

36.7% 40.3%

61.8%

51.7%

27.2%

39.9%

2002 2008 2013

PML

PML-N

PPPP

PTI

Others 6.6%

PML-N 51.7%

PTI 39.9%

Rejected Votes 1.8%

2013 Election Results

Turnout Analysis

Party Trends

Out of 10 parties/candidates contesting the polls, PML-N won the seat with 51.7% of the polled votes. PTI was the runner-up with nearly 40% votes. Other parties and candidates received a combined share of 6.6%, while nearly 2% of the polled votes were rejected.

a. Votes Polled

In 2002, the constituency saw 106,083 votes being polled, which increased by 11.3% to 118,120 in 2008. The number of registered voters went up by almost the same ratio during the same period. In 2013, the number of polled votes further went up 52% to 179,584, while the number of registered voters increased 24%.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly urban area, the voter turnout in NA-110 remained roughly the same in 2002 and 2008 elections. However, with 179,584 votes polled, the turnout increased nearly 10 percentage points to 52.5% in 2013.

PML-N's Khwaja Muhammad Asif has won the seat in the three elections since 2002, securing more than half of the polled votes in 2008 and 2013. The party secured 40.3% votes in 2002, 61.8% in 2008 and 51.7% in 2013. The runner-up, however, was different in each election. While PML was the runner-up in 2002 with 36.7% votes, PPPP and PTI took the slot in 2008 and 2013 with 27.2% and 39.9% votes respectively. Like many other areas of Punjab, NA-110 can be classified as a PML-N stronghold. The party's consistent victory establishes the party as the leading political force.

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NA-110

Figure 7: Vote Consolidation/Fragmentation Patterns 2002 to 2013

Figure 8: Comparative Margin of Victory & Rejected Votes 2002 to 2013

40.3%

61.8%

51.7%

36.7%

27.2%

39.9%

18.3%

8.0% 3.5%

2002 2008 2013

Winner Runner-up Third

3,786

40,850

21,275

4,280 3,295 3,290

2002 2008 2013

Margin of Victory Rejected Votes

Voting Pattern

The voting pattern shows a division of votes between two parties. However, with the exception of 2002, the seat has been won with a comfortable margin. In a close competition, the top two candidates secured 77% of the polled votes collectively. The runner-up, however, lost a considerably vote bank in 2008, which were dominated by PML-N. The competition was relatively strong in 2013. However, the seat was still won with a considerable margin. The second runner-up has consistently lost its vote share, showing a clear two-party race in the constituency. Given the consistent trend, the next polls may witness a similar voting pattern.

Margin of Victory

The margin of victory was less than the number of rejected votes in 2002. However the winning margin was considerably higher in 2008 and 2013 elections. It is also important to note that the number of rejected votes has decreased consistently over the three general elections.

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Figure 9: Parallel Vote Tabulation

Election Day Observations at a Glance

0 0

0

Category-A Category-B

Category-C 30Category-D

51.7

39.9

3.5

53.3

44.1

5.1

50.7

41.6

3.9

48.1

39.0

2.7

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

PTI

JI

PVT Estimate ECP Results

Categories of Received Form XIV

Figure 12: Comparative Turnoutby Type of Polling Stations

55.4%

50.5%

55.0%54.1%

52.5%

Male Female CombinedProjected

Turnout ± 0.4%

PVT ECPTurnout

Figure 10: Distribution of Registered Voters

Figure 11: Distribution ofPolling Station by Type

135,973

107,111 99,081

24,508 11,204 8,580

Male Female Combined

Polling Scheme PVT Sample

82 82

63

159 6

Male Female Combined

Polling Scheme PVT Sample

PML-N

ViolationsReportedObservation of Voting Process

Voters with any other form of identification are permitted to vote

Voters who have no ID are permitted to vote

Polling Officer is not checking the back of each voter's thumb for indelible ink

APO is not requiring each voter to put a thumbprint on the NA ballot counterfoil

APO is not putting official stamp and signing on the back of each NA ballot

APO is not filling out each NA ballot counterfoil with the voter's CNIC and details

APO is not putting an official stamp and signing each NA ballot counterfoil

Polling Officials are marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Polling agents/ Candidates are marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Security Officials is marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Other personal is marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Government Officials is trying to influence voters to vote for one candidate/party

Polling Officials are trying to influence voters to vote for one candidate/party

Any people with weapons are in the polling booth

Capture of polling station by one party/candidate

Polling Station closes before 5:00 pm

Polling officials didn’t check the stamp and signature on the back of each NA ballot

Polling officials didn’t count two times the NA ballots in each candidate pile

Polling officials didn’t call out loudly if they find a ballot without stamp/signature

Polling officials didn’t put ballots without a stamp/signature in the Invalid pile

Polling officials did not create one pile for “invalid” NA ballots

Polling officials did not fill out the "NA Ballot Account Form”

Not all polling agents sign the NA "Statement of the Count”

Polling officials did not carefully pack all NA materials in separate envelopes

Presiding Officer did not sign NA "Tamper Evident Bag”

Polling officials did not post copy of "Statement of the Count" outside the PS

Ballot Stuffing, Polling Station Capture and Voter Intimidation

Observation of Counting Process

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0