Facing climate variability and extremes

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Facing climate variability and extremes 1 Robert Zougmoré, 1 KPC Rao, 2 Arona Diedhiou 1 ICRISAT CGIAR; 2 Université de Grenoble, France Montpellier March 16-18, 2015

Transcript of Facing climate variability and extremes

Page 1: Facing climate variability and extremes

Facing climate variability and extremes1Robert Zougmoré, 1KPC Rao, 2Arona Diedhiou

1ICRISAT CGIAR; 2Université de Grenoble, France

Montpellier

March 16-18, 2015

Page 2: Facing climate variability and extremes

Outline

• Climate variability and extremes: some facts

• Impacts on agriculture

• Approaches and practices of Climate

information services

• Conclusions

Page 3: Facing climate variability and extremes

• Temperature rise of ≈0.6-0.7 °C since late 70's

• Largely higher than the global increase

• Sea level rise of 18 cm during the 20th century

I

For the last 100 years: Unequivocal temperature rise

After Benoit SARR, Aghrymet

Climate variability & change : facts!

Page 4: Facing climate variability and extremes

Sahel

GHCN Series: 12-20N, 18W-30E

Climate variability & change : facts!

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Change in rainfall variability: KenyaE

vid

en

ce o

f cli

mate

ch

an

ge

Rao et al., 2015

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Annual Number of Floods in West Africa 1966-2008

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66

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Year

Number of floods

Climate extremes

Benin 2008: 25 000 ha (staple crops) & 1204 ha (Cotton); 53 674

farmers impacted. Desaster estimated to 20 million USD.

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Impacts on agriculture

• Crop, livestock, fisheries, wildlife, vegetation…

are impacted

• The impacts can be direct or indirect

– Grain-fodder production, availability, and price

– Pastures and forage crop production and quality

– Disease and pest distributions

– Animal health, growth, and reproduction

– Risk associated with the variability and change

Page 8: Facing climate variability and extremes

Climate variability• Variable climatic conditions create risks as well

as opportunities

• Capitalizing on good seasons is as important as

avoiding risks

Location

Yield gap in below, average and above

average rainy seasons (kg/ha)

<250 mm 250-350 mm >350 mm

Kitui 1941 (5) 2698 (4) 2766 (24)

Katumani 282 (22) 1349 (14) 2207 (16)

Makindu -95 (18) 1092 (8) 2619 (19)

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Responses to variability and change

DecadesDays

Responses

Short

term

managem

ent

Long t

erm

Adapta

tion

Tactical

decisions

Seasonal

planning

Strategic

planning

Land preparation,

planting, irrigation

Land allocation,

Crop livestock

mixes

Enterprise and

livelihood shifts

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We need CSA approaches, technologies,

practices at all levels:

Some examples

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Climate information for better planning

and management in Senegal

Climate information

(indigenous & scientific)

help to improve planning

and management of

farms by smallholder

farmers

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Climate risk management in Kaffrine :

using probabilistic seasonal forecasting

• Since 2011: piloting communication of downscaled seasonal forecasts and;

evaluating impact on farmers’ management and livelihoods (CIS design + GTP)

• 2013: testing Kaffrine protocol in 3 more regions (Thies, Louga and Diourbel)

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Seasonal forecast � crop variety

� varieties

Onset forecast � farm preparation

� optimum planting

Nowcasting� flooding saving life (thunder)

Daily forecast � use of fertilizer / pesticide

Ten-day forecast � weeding, field work

Updating seasonal forecast� second cropping

Ten-day forecast � optimum harvesting

period

� rain during dry season

Before During cropping season Maturity/end season

Using climate information for early warning

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Clim

ate

info

rma

tion

Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting

Local working Group

(Issue EWS)Farmers

Agriculture

Livestock authority

Local

authority

ExtensionsExtensions

services Forestry

Rural

radio

growers

Seed

growers

Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin

Sta

keh

old

ers:

exp

erts an

d d

ecision

mak

ers

Co

mm

un

ity

Pest DiseasePest Disease

Control

Red Cross

Partnership for Senegal Early warning system

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COMMUNICATION & COMMUNICATION partnership with union of rural radio (URAC)

Target: 3 million farmers

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Colombian rice growers protect their

incomes using agro-climate information

In a good season,rice yield per hectare could be up to

In a bad season,yield per hectare can drop as low as

The yield gap can result in an estimated loss worth

Page 17: Facing climate variability and extremes

Difference in rice production affected:

Climate

Soils

Crop

management

by climate variability

Research partnership between

Colombian MoA and CIAT/CCAFS

found that

Is attributed to variations

in amount of sunlight

during grain filling.

Improvements

Change the planting date

Plant more resilient cultivars

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Following these recommendations

in the Colombian north coast:

farmers planting of irrigated rice

were able to avoid big economic losses

and the project was the winner

of the UN’s Big Data Climate Challenge

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How this partnership works

Improved

crop varieties

Agroclimatic

forecasts

Policies

& NAMAs

Adaptation Plan for

the Agricultural Sector

Farmers

Government Private sector

Producers’associations

Socioeconomic

Scenarios

Climate-Site-

Specific

Management

(CSMS)

Climate-Smart

Villages

GHG

measurements

methods for

smallholders

Scaling up

activities

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0

5

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25

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35

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45

50

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Year

No of farmers, millionArea covered, million ha

Insured farmers,

19%

Uninsured farmers,

81%

Weather-based crop insurance in India: Reaching the Unreached

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Top 10 reasons for dissatisfaction in

unsatisfied index-insured farmers

26,829,8

33,8

37,3

44,3

45,353,3

56,5

56,5

80,8

0

20

40

60

80

100Types of Risks Covered

Period of Risk Coverage

Time Delay in Claim Settlement

Explanation on WBCIS Policy

Quantum of Sum Assured

Responsiveness of Intermediary

Resolution of Queries

Mechanisms for Grievance

Redress

Convenience in Enrollment

Location of Weather Station

*Source: AFC, GOI, 2011

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Scaling-out crop insurance: Key actions

• A ‘scientific’ product reaching 20 million (19%) Indian farmers.

• Critical elements for further scaling-out:

� Improved insurance literacy

� Engaging communities in products designing and MRV

� Timely availability and accessibility of spatial and temporal weather data

� Quick settlement of claims

• Researchers, industry and government need to work together.

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To conclude:• Better preparedness

�Better understanding of climate

� Forecast based planning and management (allocation of

land, selection of crops, varieties and investments on inputs)

• Better responses�Planting primed seed/transplanting

�Contingency plans

�Water harvesting and Irrigation

• Better recovery � Safety nets/Insurance

�Employment/migration

• Developing good partnership to scale-up and achieve

impact to benefit end-users