ETSAP R&D Proposals

© OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics

ETSAP R&D Proposals

Analytics Multi-case Comparison XLSTIMES-Starter Phase II

Gary Goldstein, DecisionWare

ETSAP Semi-annual WorkshopOctober 22-23, 2015

Sophia-Antipolis, France


Analytics Multi-case Comparison XLS

2ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS

© OECD/IEA 2011 TIMES Model Management Systems Basics

Analytics XLSOverview

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Excel workbook “linked” to VBE means of the UpdateXLS

feature

Standards tables have scenario, 1-row qualifier with total, &

periods [though any VBE can be dumped & supplemental

calculations done as well]

Provides dynamic comparison of 4 (to 6) model runs

Core features:

Stacked bar charts of Reference (1st) scenario blow-up, side-by-side

of comparison scenarios, difference from Reference

1st/last period shares with pie charts, and growth/total over model

horizon

Metrics sheet with main indicators over the horizon

Handles multi-region details via a aggregate and separate region

specific workbooks

Serves as specification mechanism for VedaViz preparation

ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS


Analytics XLSVEDA_Dump Sheet

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The VEDA_Dump sheets contain the VBE table data that re automatically updated using the VBE Update XLS function. The AXLS manages these sheets by adding and deleting scenarios as needed and ensuring that every scenario data block has the full number or rows even if the scenario does not generate results for that row.



Analytics XLSScenario Master Control Sheet

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The Scenario control sheet is used to select the scenarios to be compared and determine their order of graphing, as well as managing the list of scenarios in the workbook (to keep them aligned with those in VBE). It also presents the System Cost values for all scenarios.



Analytics XLSCase Data & Diff Blocks & Graphs

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Graphing sheet displaying the scenario data, Reference (1st) detail graph, 4-case comparison graphs, difference from the Reference (1st) scenario data, and trends.



Analytics XLSShares, Diff, Growth & Change Block

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This portion of each graphing sheet provides relative information on first and last period shares, difference, growth and cumulative amount over the model horizon. It also provides relative changes between the Reference and other scenarios.



Analytics XLSMetrics Sheet

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The Metrics presents aggregated results for key model metrics, such as System Cost, Primary Energy, Final Energy, Electricity Generation, New Power Plant Builds, Investment in Supply Technologies and Demand devices, Fuel expenditures, Emissions, etc. It also contains an archive section where summary results from every scenario can be stored.



TIMES-Starter Model Phase II

9ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS


TIMES-Starter Phase IIStatus

10 10ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II

Initial Prototype operational

Demonstrates the Starter concept &

mechanisms

Model runs reasonably but needs fine-tuning

VBE & Analytics graphing workbook in place

Debuted (with some rough edges) at the IEA-

ERI training in China last week [prompting

this late submission to the ExCo]


TIMES-StarterIEA Feedback from ERI Workshop


"The TIMES-Starter seems to be a valuable tool for someone with no TIMES experience that wishes to set up a new model, the structure it provides is certainly a step forward compared to what is currently available. We very much appreciate the development of such a

starter model for capacity-building purposes, given the potential shown at the ERI training in Beijing, and look forward to collaborate further with ETSAP in possible

future occasions on capacity-building for energy systems modelling. Furthermore, we will be happy to

test future versions of the TIMES-Starter model to provide comments and data where possible."


TIMES-StarterOrganization* & Dependencies

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Energy Balance

[EB_<cnty>(yr)]

Existing &

Calibration

[BY-<sect>]

New

Technologies

[NT-<sect>]

Demand

Projection

[Demand-REF]

Supply

[SUP]

Reference

Guidance

[UC-<sect>]

Industry

Controls

[IND-*]

* All workbooks to be loaded into ANSWER start with ATx_<country>*,

with x=null for ver1 and “2” for ver2 ANSWER “Smart” XLS format

ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II


TIMES-StarterCore Templates & Dependency Table



TIMES-StarterSmart Workbooks Structure

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[1] For v1 templates the Commodities, Process and UC declarations are provided on the Items sheet.[2] For the v1 templates data is loaded from the TS&TID Data sheet for standard processes and UCs, and from separate TOP/TID/TS_Datasheets for Supply.

TIMES-Starter Model Overview

Worksheet Description

ANSv6.8/9-Home

ANSWER-TIMES template sheet that is used to add new ANSWER-TIMES smart sheet to the current

workbook, or turn an existing XLS/XLSM into a "smart" workbook. [Note that the v1 workbooks all begin with

AT_ and the v2 workbooks with AT2_.]

SETUP

Mapping of EPA-US9r/other names to TIMES TIMES-Starter names and removal of unwanted items, emission

factors, and USD price conversion factors. The Setup sheet links to the EB workbook for the list of commodities

and emission rates.

EB Information for the Energy Balance workbook for the sector. [BYs only]

CalibrationThe calculation sheet where the energy balance is apportioned and the initial year technology stock established

for each sector. [BYs only]

REGIONSDescription of Regions for the Database where this instance of the New Techs will be used. [Only active on

Supply template.]

Commodities

Energy carriers, emissions, materials are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be

used in the rest of the sheets. In V1 templates commodity groups may also be declared. These are in turn

controlled by the SETUP sheet, in most cases. [Some v1 templates have an ITEMS sheet that contains both

commodity and process declarations.]

Processes

Process technologies are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be used in the rest

of the sheets. These are in turn controlled by the SETUP sheet, in most cases. [Some V1 templates have an

ITEMS sheet that contains both commodity and process declarations.]

CommDataA sheet with the data for commodities in the sector (mostly used for mapping sector emissions to overall

emissions and providing demand levels and load timings.

ProcData_<nature>One or more sheets with the data for all technologies in the sector. [Note that the V1 templates have separate

TID & TS sheets.]

EPA/ETSAP/PIEM/KIS

R/EC/other_<sheet>

Declaration and data sheets from the EPA-US9r (and perhaps other sources including but not limited to IEA,

ETSAP eTech-DS/Pak-IEM/Kuwait-RE/Energy Community-EE databases) providing the source values for the

technology options.



TIMES-StarterMARKAL US9r to TIMES

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TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II


TIMES-StarterEnergy Balance Sheet

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Workbook also has region name, periods, timeslices, cost conversion, &

emission factorsETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II


TIMES-StarterResidential Naming & Heating Devices

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TIMES-StarterRSD&COM EB & Calibration Sheets

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TIMES-StarterResidential Technology Loadsheet

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TIMES-StarterREF Guidance for Fuels & Technologies

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TIMES-StarterANSWER RES for Electricity

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TIMES-Starter VBE Sets

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TIMES-StarterVBE Tables & Cubes

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TIMES-StarterAnalytics Graphing Workbook

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Main multi-case comparison graphing worksheets allow interactive selection of which cases to compare with 4-case stacked bar chart, 3-case diff, 1st/last period trend blocks, and model horizon metrics


TIMES-StarterAdapting for New Application

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Plug in their energy balance

Tailor the RES to their situation by eliminating and perhaps adding commodities/process not of interest/relevant or missing

Adjust the timeslices (setup with 4-seasons, 3 time-of-days)

Run and refine the calibration

Adjust their demand drivers

Pick the future technologies to be allowed, and adjust $/eff/when if necessary

Adjust the Reference guidance mechanisms (fuel switching, rate of new technology penetration controls, device types (e.g., small large car))

Introduce all known coming new builds

Introduce all future policies on the books

Introduce all physical limits on resources (e.g., refine the supply curves, set renewable potentials)

Run and refine the Reference scenario

Introduce any force operate lower bounds needed

Do any necessary refining to the VBE SnT (and Analytics workbook)

Set the values for the standard policy scenarios provided and run

Refine model behavior

To introduce another region (in principle ready – to be further tested) “REPLICATE” the EB/BY templates, changing the file name to reflect the NewRegion

In the NewRegion EB change the region name

Add the regions to the SUP/NT templates



TIMES-StarterMoving from Prototype to Production

26ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II

Complete clean-up of the initial TIMES-Starter templates

Expand VBE & the AXLS for demand sector details

Provide key technologies not found in US9r (e.g., hydro plants (dam, RoR, pump stg), CHP, HPLs, motorcycles, biomass cooker)

Get missing pieces in: Industry & Refinery examples Load Calibration workbook Hurdle rate controls

Enhance version 2 of the ANSWER-TIMES Smart Excel spreadsheets, and document {carried over from Phase I without requiring additional funding}

Complete the TIMES-Starter Guidance manual

Test creating a 2-region model

Adjust the ANSWER-TIMES 3-days training syllabus & presentation material to cover TIMES foundations, using ANSWER, learning the TIMES-Starter model, sample policy analysis, and roadmap for adapting

Noble-Soft Systems believes the importance of the Starter Model concept to ETSAP is such that – if the ExCo agrees – it is willing to transfer the €7,000 already approved for enhancing the ANSWER-TIMES Getting Started Manual to TIMES Starter Model Phase II, thus reducing to €15,650 the additional funding requested.

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TIMES-StarterTotal Project Budget Estimate

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ETSAP R&D Proposals

Data & Analytics

Transcript of ETSAP R&D Proposals