Enhancing Mekong-Japan Economic Partnership 日メコン官民連携促進...eliminated import...
Transcript of Enhancing Mekong-Japan Economic Partnership 日メコン官民連携促進...eliminated import...
機密性○
Nov 4th, 2016
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan
Enhancing Mekong-Japan
Economic Partnership
”
In order to maintain a high economic presence under the Intra/Inter –regional cooperative
framework, Mekong sub-region needs to upgrade industries by “Specialization &Collaboration”
• The economic corridors in Mekong can be fully
utilized if duplication of the roles in each
industry’s value chain is reduced
Intra-regional
Connectivity
AEC
RCEP
• ASEAN 6 have already
eliminated import duties on
most tariff lines, CLMV to
follow
• RCEP negotiations were
launched in the margin of
East Asia Summit in Nov
2012
• The completion target of
RCEP negotiations is set
for 2015
To maintain competitiveness under AEC/RCEP paradigm,
industries in Mekong need upgrading under the Spirit of
“Specialization & Collaboration”
• A complementally relationship with
participating countries, especially with India,
is crucial for each Mekong country to fully
benefit from the partnership
Inter-regional
Connectivity
Source: METI web-site modified by DTC
Economic Paradigm around Mekong Mekong’s Challenge
VietnamGood access to US, EU,
and south China
Lao PDRAbundant water
resource and fertile soil
CambodiaLabor intensive work
including agro and CMT
ThailandExisting automotive and
electronic industry cluster
MyanmarLabor intensive work
including agro and CMT
<Concept of Vision>
◆ Developing the Mekong region cooperatively with neighboring economies, advancing the industrial structure, and improving
the regional value-chain network, by reflecting unique advantages and competitiveness of each Mekong country and mutual
complementarity with the spirit of "Specialization & Collaboration“,
◆ Encouraging the Mekong region to work as the core of the Asian-wide and further the global value-chain network
Unique Advantages
Growth in neighboring economies
China
India
Pillar I: Partnering with neighboring
countries
Pillar II: Building a footing for more advanced industrial structure
Pillar III: Strengthening infrastructure
and resources that support regional value chain
TradeStructure
ForeignDirect
InvestmentHRD
LocalBusiness
CollaborationR&D
RegionalConnectivity
CompetitiveSME
Energysupply &
Environment
Expected OutcomeGDP increase of USD 20 billion in Mekong (i.e. 2% of Mekong’s GDP) by 2020
(Intra-regional trade: 10 bil, Inter-regional trade: 8 bil, FDI: 2 bil)
Three Pillars of Mekong Industrial
Development Vision
Work Programme(2016-2020)
*CMK: cutting making trimming
PDCA Mechanism Report the progress of the vison and propose economic policies to Mekong countries each year.
“Work Programme” has been adopted at the Mekong-Japan Economic Ministers’ Meeting 2016.
Regularly reviewed and updated to maintain its relevance and responsiveness.
The Mekong Industrial Development Vision
Mekong’sAttractiveness
887717 810
2,333
Bangkok Phnom
Penh
Dawei
Khon Kaen
Yangon
Mawlamyine
Hanoi
Vientiane
Da Nang<EWEC>
<SEC>
Savannakhet
Ho Chi Minh
・Car-parts
・Textile
・Shoes
・Fabric
・Textile
・Shoes
・Cars
・Cars
・Electrical-parts
・Shoe-parts
・Electrical-Parts
・Car-parts
・Electrical-Parts
to
China
to
ASEAN
20132006
Singapore
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
China
ASEAN
Mekong
to
China
to
ASEAN
FDI from Japan to
China and ASEAN
East Asia-wideEconomicIntegrationdriven byMekong
VietnamGood access to US, EU,
and south China
Lao PDRAbundant water resource
and fertile soil
CambodiaLabor intensive work
including agro and CMT
ThailandExisting automotive and
electronic industry cluster
MyanmarLabor intensive work
including agro and CMT
ASEAN
RCEP
AEC
East Asia
Mekong
Specialize in respective strengths and
complement weaknesses
Mekong sub-region as the junction between
emerging Asian mega-markets
Has developed as a single market and well
connected supply chain network
Has attracted an increasing foreign direct
investment
Current Situation of Mekong Sub-region
[Unit: bil yen]
• Upgrade the food processing of distinctive fruits & vegetables to a strategic export industry, as well as nurture
the related industries (e.g. agro-machine, food processing machine, cold-chains, food wholesale, and
restaurant ), which will improve the agricultural productivity, and enhance the market access of local farmers and
SMEs.
Vietnam Lao PDR Myanmar CambodiaThailand
• Leadindustrializationof Mekong sub-region
• Upgrade itsdomesticindustries andtechnologies, byleveraging itsdomestic large/deep layeredindustrial cluster
• Invite FDI byconsistentindustrial policiesto strongly fosterindustrialclusters
• Leverage its largepopulation,domestic demand,and good accessto EU/ USA withits deep sea port
• In the early stages of industrialization, invite production-blockincluding labor intensive process by leveraging abundant labor/natural resources and existing industrial clusters
• Reinforce the level of labor force through technology spill overfrom global production network
• In the long run, nurture industries that are complementary withthose of neighboring countries and leverage inherent strengthof each country
Future industrial structure to be achieved through the strength of each Mekong countries
In the long run, each Mekong countries aim to achieve the following industry structure
(Lao PDR)
• Foster a precision machinery industry, mineral processing industry, by leveraging its abundant water resource, and fertile soil.
(Myanmar, Cambodia)
• Could attract higher value-added process ( e.g. spinning yarn, weaving, or product planning ), by leveraging the existing garment facilities.
Individual
Mekonggeneral
6
TradeStructure
ForeignDirect
Investment
LocalBusiness
Collaboration
• AEC and RCEP
• Regionally unified efforts for the cross border trade enhancement(e.g. the customs proceedings improvement. etc).
• Need to foster new industries
• Need to create/foster higher value added industrial clusters, including SMEs, through the information provision / the support desk establishment for foreign investors by JETRO etc.
• Need to foster a harmonized / win-win relationship between neighboring countries on the border SEZ development.
• Need to create/foster new industries
• Need to build a common platform to enhance the business collaboration (e.g. necessary legal infrastructure, and business environment improvement).
• Provide business matching opportunities (e.g. trade fairs, business missionaries )
Pillar I: Partnering with neighboring countries
Policy DirectionChallenges and Opportunities
CAGR
39%
CAGR
25%
-Need to foster industries
and develop
value chains with India
in a mutually beneficial
and complementary
manner.
-FDI has been
focused in natural
resources and
labor-intensive
industry.
-Need to invite /
foster higher value
added industries
and new industries
-The business
presence of Mekong
enterprises is still
limited compared with
that of Chinese and
Indian enterprises.
136
56
IndiaMekong
17
China
# of enterprises in Forbes 2000, 2013
CAGR of inter-regional trading (’00-’10)
Remarkable FDIs to Mekong in 2013-14
: Labor-intensive and natural resource
Source: ASEAN Investment report 2013-14
Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Garment Hydropower Garment Infrastructure Thermal power
Footwear Mining Infrastructure Auto Auto
Cement Real-estate Manufacturing Electronics Electronic
Auto Agriculture Electronics Oil/Gas
Auto
7
R&D
• Need to invite R&D facilities/functions by taking advantage of the adjacent to the production site.
• Need to create more human resource in R&D activities through collaboration among the universities(e.g. curriculum / internship program development)
CompetitiveSME
• Steady implementation of the "ASEAN strategic action plan for SME development (2016-2025)"
Pillar II: Building a footing for more advanced industrial structure
137
293
202
113
281
171618
4,381
626
Num. of Researchers per MM people
Ca
mb
od
ia
La
o P
DR
Myanm
ar
Th
aila
nd
Vie
tna
m
Ind
on
esia
Mala
ysia
Sin
ga
po
re
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
3.74.1
Cam
bodia
Thaila
nd
Vie
tnam
Lao P
DR
Mya
nm
ar
2.92.52.4
SME policy index (ERIA)
ASEAN Ave. = 3.6-Need to increase
necessary human
and capital resources.
-Especially need to
enhance the SME's
access to finance.
-Need to increase
the capital investment
and human resource
in R&D activities.
Policy DirectionChallenges and Opportunities
8
HRD
RegionalConnectivity
• Need to create and utilize a "HRD hub" for the regional HRD in Mekong sub-region.
• The improvement of the basic education, vocational training / on-the-job-training in leading countries, and the work ethics improvement are necessary.
• Connectivity improvement such as in EWEC, SEC, Viet Nam, and especially in Myanmar.
• New deep sea port development facing the Indian sub-continent.
• Quality infrastructure development.
• Input from investors to enhance the implementation of CBTA.
• Modernization of custom proceedings.
Energy supply&
Environment
• Need to consider the best possible mix for the regional energy portfolio.
• Regional power development, and cross border electricity supply.
• Accelerate the effort toward the energy saving / renewable energy technology.
• Fostering venous industries.
Pillar III: Strengthening infrastructure and resources that support regional value chain
0
25
50
1,4004002000
India
China
Phillipines
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Vietnam ThailandMyanmar
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Wa
ge
gro
wth
(%)
-Wage hike without
productivity
improvement
-Low skilled labor
-Instability in
Electrical Supply
-Low energy efficiency
in generation and
consumption
-Environment issues
(pollution, waste)
Wage 2012 (USD/month)
Policy DirectionChallenges and Opportunities
-Improvement of road
infrastructure is needed,
especially in Myanmar
-Need to enhance
cross-border
connectivity
(such as by CBTA)
Vietnam
Thailand
Philippines
Myanmar
Lao PDR
Indonesia
IndiaChina
Cambodia
# of outage (/month)
Du
ratio
nofo
uta
ge
(hrs
)
3.13.5
3.23.4
2.22.42.7
IndiaChinaViet
nam
Myan
mar
Lao
PDR
Cam
bodia
Thai
land
Overall Logistics Performance Index (WB)
0
1
2
3
4
0 5 10 15
Covered period is 5years(2016~2020)
Comprehensive list of cooperation projects by Mekong region and Japan
A list of concrete projects to realize the Vision
Consists of cooperation projects planned or performed not only by Japan but also by
Mekong countries themselves and regional development partners
Individual cooperation
projects to achieve Strategic
Goals.
Strategic Goal Action Lines
Structure of Work Programme is following:
A country and/or development
partner(s) which is in charge
of a specific individual
cooperation project
Implementation Body
Policy goals and abstract
explanation about how to
realize Policy Directions,
specified in the vison
Shall be reviewed and updated regularly to maintain its relevance and responsiveness
in the process of AMEICC WEC-WG and M-J Economic Ministers Meeting
Some Action Lines can be implemented even before endorsement
Classified by 3 pillars(8 sub-pillars) of the Vision
The Work Programme
3
Policy Proposal in WEC-WG
by AMEICCMaking the policies
by Mekong countries
Monitoring the progress
(Setting and checking KPI)
by AMEICC
Implementation of
the policies
PDCA mechanism for realization of the vision
Japan, China, USA, Korea, other ASEAN countries are major investors to Mekong region
FDI Inflow to countries in Mekong sub-region
Source: Deloitte analysis based on Japan ASEAN center
*Note: Data period for Myanmar 1989-Apr 2013, for Lao PDR 2000-2012, for Vietnam 2001-2012, for Thailand 2001-2012, for Cambodia 1994-2012 Sept, for
Malaysia 2001-2012, for Singapore 2001-2012, for Indonesia 2001-2012 , and for Philippines for 2001-2012. Brunei ‘s data is omitted .
China(Incl. Hong
Kong)
33 B USD
Korea
26 B USD
USA
29 B USD
ASEAN-
Others
35 B USD
Japan
74 B USD
20,727
3,184
50,204
10,269
3,554 17,940
17,940
4,193
11,410
Mekong
20 B USD
MM $Amount of FDI
Inflow (USD MM)
23,322
9%
44%
10%
37%
10%
9%
58%
13%
10%
7%
49%7%
23%
14%
16%
13%
5%35%
8%
24%
9,225
17%
3%
12%
66%
2%
Myanmar
Thailand
Cambodia
Vietnam
Lao PDR
The membership of the the Japanese Chambers of Commerce and Industries based in
Mekong countries has been rapidly increasing since 2012
1552
1379
1323
1035
91 168 (85%)
41 71 (73%)
28%
Source: Federation of Japanese Chamber of Commerce and
Industry in ASEAN (FJCCIA)
Note: Number of companies in Viet Nam was calculated through
summing up 3 JCCs (Hanoi, Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh)
Member companies as of June 2014
Member companies as of June 2012
Number of Japanese companies registering to respective Japanese
Chambers of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) has been dramatically
increased since 2012, with 73-200% increase in CLM countries, 28%
increase in Viet Nam and 13% increase in Thailand.
Viet Nam: Investment by Japanese SMEs has been growing in general.
Cambodia: Service industry investment (e.g. retail, logistics, finance,
construction, installment service) has been observed.
Lao PDR: Factories with 300-500 employees have been increasing
Myanmar: Real investment cases are still limited compared with sharp
JCC member increase
Lao PDR
Viet Nam
Cambodia
Thailand
13%
56 168 (200%)
Myanmar
FDI in Mekong sub-regions is expanding in its variety both in terms of target industries and
investing countries
Source:ASEAN Investment Report 2013-2014
FDI Cases from ASEAN Investment Report 2013 - 2014
Lao PDR (14.2 B USD)
• Garment
• Footwear
• Cement (Huaxin Cement)• Auto (Denso, Mazuda,
Toyota, Yazaki)• Others (SMFG, Nippon
Express, Minebea, Kitahara
International hospital, AEON)
China
Japan
Vietnam (179.4 B USD)Thailand (114.1 B USD)
Cambodia (42.4 BUSD) Myanmar (42.3 B USD)
• Hydropower generation
• T&D
• Mining
• Real-estate
• Agriculture
China
Japan
China
Japan
• Garment (Shanghai
Donglong Feather MFG, SDI
MFG, Jiangsu Solamoda
Garments)• Infrastructure
• Manufacturing (Canon,
Mazuda, Nissan,Unicharm)• Infrastructure (Mitsubishi,
Marubeni, Sumitomo, Toyo-
Thai)
• Auto
• Electronics(Canon, Toshiba,
Daikin)
• Others (Toyota Tsusho,
MUFG)
China
Japan
Others
• Auto (Mitsubishi Fuso,
Bridgestone)
• Electronics(Hitachi, Toshiba)
• Others (MUFG, Sumitomo
Life)
China
Japan
• Hydropower generation
(Toshiba)
• Auto (Toyota Boshoku)
• Electronics(Samsung)
• Oil/Gas (Conoco, Chevron)
Others • Electronics (Samsung)
Others• Auto (Bosch)
Others • Others (Big C)
• Infrastructure (C&C)
• Others (Daijieng)
• Garment
• Thermal power generation
Others • Others (Saha union)