Energy sustainability vs materials availability. Equivalence and differences

Igor Lubomirsky and David CahenDept. Materials and InterfacesWeizmann Institute of Science

Rehovot, 76100, Israel

all knowledge starts from wonder Aristotle

1

There are lot studies about sustainability of materials …

What can we add to it?

This is the Man all tattered and torn,

That ..………………………………………………

…………………………………………………

That lay in the House

that Jack built

What happens if energy becomes more expensive?

How will it affect materials production and consumption?

Do we have the technological abilities to adapt?

If yes, how?3

Energy availability definesthe range of materials that can be used

World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973-2010

Why do we have to think about these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.

More than 90% of coal is used for three purposes only:

Electricity

Steel

Cement

Energy prices are not interdependent

If one energy source becomes more

expensive, then other sources follow.

6

Despite high specialization…

:// . . / / / _ _ .http www metalprices com pubcharts Public Aluminum Price Charts asp

:// . . / - - / - /http www moneyweek com news and charts market data oil

No oil is used for aluminum production

Should the price of aluminum

correlate with the price of oil?Why?

High energy price diverts some electricity used from aluminum

production to other uses

7

If a technologically and economically viable alternative

exists,

can it be implemented quickly?

http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/gasoline/margins/index.phphttp://www.methanex.com/products/methanolprice.html 

9

Methanol vs Gasoline price Price of Methanol on Nov. 2012: $1.45/gallon

Ratio of Methanol to Gasoline Energy Content (w/w) = 0.55

Density of Methanol: 0.79 gm/cm3

Density of Gasoline: 0.72 gm/cm3

Cost of the amount of Methanol equivalent to

1 US gallon (= 3.785 l) of gasoline:/gallon$2.9

0.720.55

0.791.45

Gasoline costs, before taxes & distribution, on Nov. 2012: $3.0 / gallon, which

includes

price of crude oil @ $2.44 /gallon

price of refining (including profits) ~$0.55 /gallon

(slightly varies from state to state)

Why are

n’t we

driving on

MeOH?

Gasoline consumption in the US alone is ~130 billion

gallonsTotal production of

methanol in the world is 16 billion gallons

Total installed production capacity is ~20 billion

gallons(<8% of US gasoline equivalent)

Methanol p

roducti

on

capacit

y can’t

match

demand in fo

rese

eable

futu

re

Questions: 1.How much energy can be

diverted without major disrupting living standards?

(How flexible is the energy consumption structure?)

2. Can materials availability limitations affect technological changes?

Starting point: Transition to new technologies

requires diversion of energy and materials

What is energy used for?

11%

10%

24%

27.5%

27.5%

Materials production Transportation Residential use Commercial services Other

12

Can some of this energy be redirected?

Transportation?

Industrial and commercial Personal and recreational

35.4%

21.2%

23.2%

Agriculture Construction

20.2%

Only ~8% of personal fuel consumption is “purely” recreational (1.6% of total)!

Gasoline consumption rises ~ 30% per decade “Hidden costs of energy Unpriced

consequences of energy production and use”the national academies press, Washington, D.C.

Energy usage in transportation in the US

Can some of this energy be redirected?

Residential? Major fraction (>85%) is for

heating and air conditioning.

Commercial services? Energy consumption can be cut but … at the expense of important services“Hidden costs of energy Unpriced

consequences of energy production and use”the national academies press, Washington, D.C.

Can some of the energy for materials processing be

redirected?

10.7 (32%)4 (12%)

1.5 (5%)

2 (6%)

3 (9%)

12 (36%)

steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other

Since, these five materials are vital, only a small portion of the energy used for industry can be

really diverted

Five materials use more than half of all energy for materials production

16

Can the energy expenses for materials production

decrease with time?

Not likely

The fraction of materials in the total energy balance will grow

because improvement in extraction technology is offset by decreased quality

and exhaustion of ores

18

Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).

the energy cost of extraction increases steeply with decrease of ore quality

Energy and greenhouse gas implications of deteriorating quality ore reserves; T.Norgate and S. Jahanshahi; CSIRO Minerals/Centre for Sustainable Resource Processing; URL : http://www.minerals.csiro.au

The fraction of materials in the total energy balance will grow

The fraction of materials in the total energy balance will grow

discovery of new ores does not compensate for exhaustion

20

Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).

Can materials consumption

be restricted by increased

efficiency of their use?

21

Material intensity increases steadily

( quantity of materials per unit of product decreases)

USA

UK

Japan

Does it mean that materials consumption will decrease?

22Krausmann et al…

Mineral/fossil

Biomass

Materials consumption per capita INCREASES because living standards rise

23Krausmann at al… 2009

Absolute materials consumption accelerates exponentially

24

 F. Krausmann, S. Gingrich, N. Eisenmenger, K. H. Erb, H. Haberl, and M. Fischer-Kowalski,

Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century,

Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2696-2705 (2009).

Conclusion 1

Current structure of the energy/materials

production/consumption

does not allow for large flexibility

Availability of materials produced as byproducts

26

Price scales as a power law with abundance

John R. Boyce, Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources

from Cu

from Znfrom Zn

from Cu-Mo

Low price relative to abundance

from Zn

from Zn, Cu, Pd

Price scales as a power law with abundance

Production volumes should also scale with abundance

Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

30

Can the supply of a byproduct

be increased rapidly if a technological need

arises?

31

Listed energy cost of the byproducts (does not include the price of the

primary) product pr  Approximate energy cost

production (GJ t-1)

Primary products

Aluminum 188

Steel 29

Copper 135

Cement 6

Iron ore 3

Lead 31

Zinc 76

Phosphate 0.35

Secondary products

Gallium 50

Germanium 40

Indium 40

Selenium 116

Tellurium 116

Cadmium 4.5

Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

Increase in production of byproducts requires

increase of production of the corresponding primary

product

32

The problem

How does it affect abilities to switch to renewable

energy sources?

33

than that of materials for solar cells

For Never Was A Story Of More Woe

34

Nayak Bisquert, Cahen. AM, 2011, updated 2012

Solar cells are as good as they can beCell type (absorber) [%] of theoretical efficiency

sc-Si ~90

GaAs ~90

InP ~80

CdTe ~ 75

Cu(In~0.7Ga~0.3)Se ~78

a-Si:H ~67DSSC (black dye) (red N719)

~55?~75?

Org. polymer (P3HT-PCBM-based)

~55?35

36

Annual production of Te in 2010 is only

150 tonne (from Cu refinement)Current recovery rate is 33–40%

Increasing installed capacity from current 0.07 TW to 0.7 TW requires a few times increase in copper production.

In 2008 Cu production used 0.08% of world energy. Increasing production by a few times is not feasible.Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological

survey) and

Fthenakis, V.: Sustainability metrics for extending thin-film photovoltaics to terawatt levels, MRS Bulletin, 37(4), 425 (2012).

Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion

with the current

consumption rate and

technology

Annual production including recycling

Known resources

Indium (2010) 574 N/A Probably <10

Gallium (2008) 184 N/A Probably <10

Tellurium (2010) 155 22,000 140

Selenium (2009)(US declined to disclose)

2,280 88,000 39

Cadmium (2010) 22,000 660,000 30

Similar calculation can be done for other materials

Increase in Ga or In production requires increase

in Al production

37

Si, Ti and organics… are available in really large quantities

Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey)

How big is the increase?Only 10% of Al producers extract GaPra

ctica

lly

imposs

ible

Materials for wind energy:

economy and materials limitation

38

Nd2Fe14B magnets Made ONLY in China (80%), Japan (17%), and Germany (3%). A 3MW windmill requires 700 kg of Nd

(A hybrid car requires 3 kg of Nd)

Nd2Fe14B lose 50% coercivity @100 C

New Nd-Dy-Y—Fe-B magnet works to 200 C and uses less Nd.

Wind energy. Materials aspect

Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion with

the current consumption rate and technology

Annual production including recycling

Known resources

Nd 7.000 8 million tonnes

Using ALL available Nd may add

35 TW

With current production one can add 13 GW /year

39

However…..

many materials have very limited number of producers.

Sometimes one producer.

The problems are often political…

40

~80% of wind-electricity

produced in Denmark is sold with economic

loss41

Danish center for political studies (CEPOS) report of Sep. 2009: WIND ENERGY THE CASE OF DENMARK

because there is no good way for

large-scale energy storage

42

Danish center for political studies (CEPOS) report of Sep. 2009: WIND ENERGY THE CASE OF DENMARK

Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 11. Water electrolysis: low temperature electrolysis

(alkaline process) requires Pt to reach > 80% efficiency

Taking 1/10 of world Pt production (U 1.5 V potential (82% efficiency), 100 nm thick coverage, J=0.1 A/cm2) can convert 135 GW of electrical energy into H2.

Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion with

the current consumption rate and technology

Annual production including recycling

Known resources

Platinum (2010) 180 tonne( 9 m3)

14,000 NA

Without Pt, the efficiency is < 50% ( 1 atm), ~ 80% @ (high pressure)

This is < 0.3 % of the energy required for transportation.

43

Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 22. Water electrolysis: high temperature

electrolysis (reversed fuel cells)3. Materials are not restricted (Y, Zr, Ni, Co)

Efficiency 120 C 45%; 850 C <65%;

• theoretically FEASIBLE. • Susceptible to sulfur poisoning• Practically not tested

Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion with

the current consumption rate and technology

Annual production including recycling

Known resources

Yttrium (2010) 8900 540,000 60Ziconium (2010, ktons) 1190 56000 47

Cobalt (2010) 88,000 7,300,000 82

44

The method :

CO2 to CO conversion by electrolysis of molten Li2CO3-Li2O mixture

Operating temperature: 900 oC;

Current density range: 0.05-2 A/cm2;

Cathode: Titanium;

Anode: Carbon;

Container: Titanium or Ti-plated steel

3. CO2 CO electrolysis in melts

(Kaplan & Lubomirsky, 2010)

45

1000 hrs of continuous operation without degradation

Current density: 0.1-2 A/cm2

Cell voltage: 1.0-1.5 VFaradaic efficiency 100% ;

2

2

CO in

O out

anode cathode

CO out

-2-2

3 2OCO2CO e

-23

-22 COOCO

32CO Liofmelt

2-2 O2

12O e

Thermodynamic efficiency 100%

46

Small scale (5 kA) prototype was successfully tested

47

Why is this better than other schemes?

1. No precious (Pt, Ag, Au, Pd) metals required

2. No materials limitations: Ti and Li2CO3-Li2O

3. No hazardous chemicals involved, no pollution

4. Continuous operation is possible

5. One can use flue gas as a source

6. The system is fully tolerant to SO2 and Nox

7. Capture of CO2 from air is possible

8. The system is VERY COMPACT >50 kW/m3

9. CO can be easily converted into liquid fuel (CH3OH) 48

Can recycling help?

Yes, but only partially!

Current recycling levelsPb >90% Fe 55-65%Al 40-50% Sn >50% Mg >40% Cu >25%

49

Large fraction of materials cannot be recycled

10.7 (32%)4 (12%)

1.5 (5%)

2 (6%)

3 (9%)

12 (36%)

steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other

Recycled already >50%

1. there is very little flexibility in the ability to divert energy resources to new technologies

2. production of those materials that are by-products cannot be increased rapidly

3. recycling can provide only a partial relief

Optimism and Realism

We need new ideas

NOW

51