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    68 april 2003 e -FOREX april 2003 e -FOREX 69

    In a world where currency traders, portfolio managers and

    corporate treasurers are pursuing ever more sophisticated

    investment strategies, it is becoming increasingly difficult to

    properly assess the true risk profile of certain positions. This is

    especially true in the forex trading market where complex

    products such as path-dependent barrier options are used to

    establish direction trades or when the underlying currency

    exposure arises from a position in multifaceted products such

    as structured notes or convertible bonds.

    Investors historically have analyzed their currency exposure in

    isolation and under simplistic assumptions with respect to the

    timing and magnitude of the expected cash flows they are

    trying to hedge. As a result, hedging currency exposure usually

    entailed assessing par value or nominal currency exposure

    and subsequently hedging the portion deemed unacceptable

    using plain-vanilla currency options or foreign-exchange

    futures. This practice is however often sub-optimal because it

    fails to account for the natural diversification occurring between

    different sources of risks embedded in a portfolio. Also, it fails

    to account for the fact that portfolio managers and treasurers

    usually want to mitigate their downside risk (potential losses)

    and not necessary eliminate their currency exposure. A new

    approach allowing better identification of the risks supported is

    undoubtedly needed.

    For instance, before hedging a portfolio for its currency risk,

    portfolio managers may want to identify and segregate their

    exposure to specific movements in interest rates, credit spreads

    and foreign exchange rates. Different conditional-expectations

    scenarios can then be applied to assess the true amount of

    downside risk actually faced by the investors. Ultimately, only

    the exposure deemed unacceptable should be hedged using

    custom-made and cost-effective derivative products such as

    credit and currency derivatives. The emergence of specialized

    products such as credit default swaps, total return swaps and

    credit spread options enables portfolio managers to eliminate or

    mitigate credit risk exposures, while currency derivatives such

    as vanilla or complex FX options allows them to alter their

    currency exposure.

    ..monitoring currencyexposure requires a

    sophisticated risk engine

    In other words, the presence of tailored products allows

    investors to neutralize very specific exposure. This, coupledwith the ability to segregate sources of risk with greater

    granularity, will undoubtedly lead to the use of more

    meaningful, effective, and tailored hedging strategies, especially

    in liquid markets such as the currency market. However,

    complex and tailored hedging strategies must be supported by

    appropriate analytical tools to assess risk and return in order to

    fulfill their true potential.

    In todays world, monitoring currency exposure requires a

    sophisticated risk engine capable of supporting complex

    derivative products, of analyzing aggregated portfolio exposures

    across several dimensions, and of conducting horizon analysis

    in a consistent manner. However, sophisticated risk systems

    have historically been costly and difficult to maintain.

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    Straight-throughprocessing for Forex

    More importantly, they were difficult to use, lacked flexibility

    and were for the most part, fairly unintuitive. This created asituation where only very few managers could own such a risk

    system; and even fewer could use the technology to its fullest

    potential. There is no doubt that the inability of portfolio

    managers to properly assess the true risk profile of their

    positions and the true impact of certain derivative products has

    hindered growth in the currency derivative trading area.

    Portfolio managers will only invest in complex products once

    they fully understand the risk profile and profit enhancement

    capabilities of those products.

    This is why certain risk providers have invested millions of

    dollars developing a new suite of risk management products

    that are better suited for complex trading and enhanced

    usability.

    These products were specifically designed to support non-linear

    products such as options and convertible bonds. But the mainarea where these products really distinguish themselves is that

    they can be fully embedded within a trading platform. This

    approach completely removes implementation risk, reduces

    maintenance cost, enhances security and facilitates data

    reconciliation. Most importantly, it allows investors to conduct

    truly real-time risk analysis and what-if scenarios on their

    positions.

    But reducing failure ratesis not the only focus for

    risk managers

    Pre-trade market risk analysisin e-forex platforms

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    Another key benefit of embedding sophisticated risk managementtools within a trading platform is that it significantly mitigates

    operational risk. This is achieved by reducing the amount of data

    transferred from one system to another and aligns the middle office

    with the front office. Since both the analysis and execution are

    handled by one system, there is effectively a greater control over data

    flow and lower likelihood of costly operational failures. But reducing

    failure rates is not the only focus for risk managers in a business

    environment.

    Indeed, for banks, a key measure of competitive advantage and

    business effectiveness is use of capital in risk trading areas. And

    increasingly, it is not just market and credit risk that must be factored

    into costs and pricing, but also operational risk. Errors in processing

    deals at regulated financial institutions will in the future have a capital

    implication. This must be modeled within the overall risk management

    environment, in particular if the organization is to calculate the truereturn on economic capital invested in the forex business.

    With currencies swinging up and down at a dizzying pace and financial

    markets reacting more vividly to economic news, investors are facing

    unprecedented portfolio volatility. If history is any guide, this volatility

    is here to stay and will fundamentally change the nature of investment

    strategies undertaken by professional investors and corporate

    treasurers. With new and more complex strategies comes the need forequally powerful risk measurement and management systems that

    truly capture the total risk undertaken by an investor. Whether an

    investor is facing market, credit or operational risks, these risk must be

    well understood, quantified and managed. And the trading platform is

    the logical place to do so in an integrated and efficient way.

    Straight-through processing for Forex

    Benoit Fleury.Director, Algorithmics Bloomberg Solutions

    with contributions from David Syerand Andrew Aziz