資通訊產業發展、人才需求與自我定位 · o在財經政策上面 ......

1中國科技大學 April 16, 2008

中國科技大學2008青輔會產業與職涯講座

呂忠心[email protected]工研院資通所April 16, 2008

資通訊產業發展、人才需求與自我定位


‧洞察市場需求

‧ICT產業發展趨勢

‧台灣ICT產業發展

‧自我定位


• Necessity, who is the mother of invention

Plato, The Republic

• Invention is the mother of necessityThorstein Veblin

Invention and Necessity


—供給創造需求理論—

o於市場面，主動的由供給創造需求，創新研發新產品，由supply 驅動 demand。

o在財經政策上面， A. Laffer 根據薩伊定律（Say’s Law）主張採取「供給面經濟學」（Supply Side Economics）理論。要使經濟穩定發展，應充分重視勞動、儲蓄、投資及生產等供給要素，強調刺激生產要素的供給，才能解決供給不足問題，使經濟擺脫滯膨困境。80年代美國雷根政府採用「供給面經濟學」，推行保守的財政政策。

Say’s Law (薩伊定律)


無線通訊滿足行動需求

wireless access

fixedaccess mobilityConflict


第二代(2G)行動通訊

•“Digital Telephony on the Move”

•Universal standard !!!

•Data is an afterthought

•Capacity becomes an issue only after a surprising commercial success

demand driven !


•Wide Band?•IP?•Multimedia? •Applications?•Vision not very well thought out!!!

第三代(3G)行動通訊

supply driven !


第四代（4G）行動通訊？


Human Centric(Intelligent Environment)

Evolution of Computing

3000

1980 1995 2005 20151939

300

100

1000

Mobile Networking(Internet Centric)

Connectivity

White Collar Productivity

Blue Collar Productivity

Centralized

Back Room App(Main Frame)

Front Office App(Personal Access)

Decentralized

Human Performance

Internet, Personal Communications

Ubiquitous Computing


產業發展趨勢

全球化全球化

自由化自由化

•技術推力

•巿場引力

ICT產業ICT產業

產業整合

巿場擴增

互動化、個人化的使用型態

數位化數位化無線化無線化

網路化網路化

智慧化智慧化

資料來源:工研院經資中心ITIS計畫，2000


網路無所不在


Convergence

•Paging Messaging Telephony Convergence

•Wireline Wireless Convergence

•Wireless Multimedia Convergence

•Communications Computing Convergence

•Funtionality Style Convergence


Service Convergence

BroadbandInternet

Computing

AM/1920FM/1940

Digital Radio/1995

彩色電視黑白電視

Digital TV

ConvergenceMobile CommunicationsAMPS GSM 3G/B3G


Global Digital Convergence

ICT has been central to social and economic development. Three major forces for evolution of ICT industry -*Convergence caused by digitalization*Rational resource utilization*Supply of and demand for new services

Digital Convergence is heralding the emerging markets such as mobile life, digital home, and automotive telematics (4G, WSN, IP-Telecom, Mobile TV, FTTx, Intelligent Environment, etc.)

Source:Dr. J. Carl Hsu,ITRI/CCL, Oct. 2006


Shifting Emphases

•IT evolution in the past quarter century Factory automation, blue collar productivity Main frame, back room operation, remote

terminal access Personal computing, symbiotic interactivity,

white collar productivity

ICT for the work place

•ICT development for the next 10 years Affordable bandwidth, grand convergence

Life enrichment, ICT enabled living style

Ubiquitous ICT for the masses


Our Living Style


ICT Enabled Living Style

Wired / Wireless HANsHome Networking

URC

Open Service Platform

Context-Aware Computing

ResidentialGateway

SensorsStorageManagement

ProtocolOffload Engine

In-Vehicle Control Network

In-Vehicle TelematicsGateway

Safety & Security

Infotainment Network

Remote Diagnostics

Remote Management

Access

IP SwitchIP SAN

Clients

Storage Virtualization

Application Servers


A Wiring Nightmare


Mobionics

Mobionics is the ICT aspect of the ground transportation that encompasses the vehicles, the infrastructure, the drivers the passengers and the pedestrians. It integrates ICT, electronics, and sensor technologies. Automotive electronics, ITS and vehicular infomatics are parts of the mobionics solution.

• X-by-wire

• Comfort

• Safety

• Driving Efficiency

RoadVehicle • Infrastructure Sensors

• Infrastructure Controls

Human

• System communication

• Service Network


Vehicular Telematics (ITS)

DAB / DVB-T Radio Broadcasting

Broadcasting Station

FM Multiplex

Road Traffic InformationTeletext BroadcastingD-GPS

Office

Home

GSM /GPRS/3GCommunicationSystem

Internet

BroadcastingCommunicationEmergency Information

Communication between Vehicleand InfrastructureInformation of Other VehiclesInformation of Obstacle

Exit

GPS Satellite

Broadcasting &Communication Satellite

Position Information

Electronic TollCollection System

Vehicle to Vehicle Communication SystemVehicle Operation Information

VICS

Road Traffic InformationRoute GuidanceInformation of Road Conditions


•Wireless WAN•Inter-Car Comm•Broad Backbone•DSRC

On Board and Off Board ICT


娃娃車Vehicular Telematics


Home Network

Home Control

Communications Home Entertainment

Home Office

Internet

Source : CCL/ITIS,1999.03

Connecting Everything, Computing Everywhere


家庭網路與無線通訊

時間

NIC、Hub 、Switch 、Router 、Bridge 、Access Point 、IP sharingResidential Gateway 、Cable Modem 、 Digital STB等

通訊型產品

DVD Player 、DVD Recorder、Game console 等

家電/控制型產品照明裝置、恆溫空調裝置、家庭網路保全系統、門禁系統、觸控式HMI

、Web遠端監控等

第一階段

第二階段

第三階段

1998 2002 2004 2006

娛樂型連網產品

資訊型產品Desk top PC、Printer 、Notebook、PDA 、Tablet PC 、Mira等

資料來源：工研院IEK(2003/09)


開放式家庭網路服務平台技術

保全

自動化

影音

電腦/儲存

電信/電表

Service Gateway

OSGi

保全服務

影音服務

自動化服務

….

OSGi

資通服務

Automobile Gateway

寬頻 e 化網

Service Repository

保全

影音自動化汽車資通

服務管理平台

用戶管理平台

保全服務影音服務汽車資通服務遠端管理

感測器

URC

家庭狀況感知


數位家庭服務

Ethernet

Power Line

Power Line

iL100

電燈電風扇空氣清淨機

X10 2-way Transceiver

RS232

心電圖機

電燈

血糖計

RS232 to BT Bridge

BlueTooth

攝影機

iL100

煙霧感測器

三合一感測器

瓦斯感測器

瓦斯遮斷器

灑水裝置

警報器

Twisted Pair

RS232

internet

家庭保全服務

健康照護服務

家庭自動化服務

影音娛樂服務

遠端管理

Server

Twisted Pair數位電錶

節約能源服務


Taiwan ICT Industry• Taiwan has effectively utilized policy instrument in creating

emerging industries since 1970 and gained a crucial position on the global high-tech industry as evidenced by its stronghold in the IC, PC, flat panel display and broadband & wireless comm. product market.

• Taiwanese vendors supply more than 80% of world wide notebook PC & 90% of Wi-Fi products, and has become a major 2G/3G handset manufacturing service supplier. The prominent vendors include BenQ, Compal, HTC, Mitac,Foxconn, Asus, and Quanta.

• Taiwanese vendors have been the major force to drive down the cost of CPE, such as, xDSL, cable modem, Wi-Fi, and VoIP, and contribute to the proliferation of their applications

• A majority of WLAN companies in Taiwan have invested in developing WiMAX CPE and base stations.


台灣(ICT)產業特性

‧廠商規模以中小型企業為主‧中、低價位的產品型態‧代工的業務型態，加強品牌業務‧關鍵零組件的技術能力與供貨來源的掌握度普遍不足

‧海外產值的比重逐漸升高‧生產技術良好，市場應變能力佳


Well-established Clusters

Telecom

•Ethernet Card : Hub•xDSL Modem•Wireless LAN •Cable Modem

FPD•Color Filter•Flat Panel •Glass Substrate•Driver IC

IT

•Notebook PC •LCD Monitor •Optical Disk Driver

IC

•IC foundry•IC Design•IC Packaging•IC Testing

tsmc,UMC, Mediatek…

Ambit,Accton,D-Link, Zyxel…

Acer,Benq,Quanta…

AU,CPT,Hanstar …

Chimei…


Focus of Taiwan ICT Industries

–IT Hardware, Notebook PC, Motherboard, LCD Monitor, CDT Monitor

ITUS$77 bn*

–IC: IC design, manufacture, assembly and testing

–IC related applications: memory, logic components, system chips, communication, display, multimedia and IA.

ICUS$34.7 bn*

–Panel : PDP, TFT LCD, TN/STN, OLED– Key Component: Glass, Color Filter, Backlight, Driver IC, Polarizer

FPDUS$30.4 bn*

–Broadband Networking: Optical communication industry, LAN products, broadband access equipment and IP applications.

–Wireless Comm.: End user equipment, WLAN, WMAN, Personal Area Network, Data transmission devices

Telecomm

US$15.3 bn*

*2005 revenue Source：IEK/ITRI(2006/05)


The Top 10 Comm Products

source：IEK/ITRI (2006/03)

0.16

0.27

0.63

0.79

0.83

1.01

1.10

1.74

1.97

4.90

2005 Revenue

-26.6%0.21 Analog Modem10

17.6%0.23 IP Phone9

40.1%0.45 Bluetooth85.8%0.74

Ethernet LAN Switch

7

117.3%0.38Cable CPE6

0.4%1.00 SOHO Router5

9.1%1.01 xDSL CPE4

83.6%0.95 GPS3

24.5%1.58 WLAN2

19.3%4.10 Mobile Phone1

Growth2004

RevenueProductRank

US$ Bn


Challenges of the ICT Industry

• Profit margin keeps declining, average profit decline over time

• Globalization, diversification : Shifting manufacture outside of Taiwan; Taiwan companies share >90% IT production in China

• Human resources shortage

• Innovation, technology, branding

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NB LCD Monitor

OBM

OEM,ODM

TotalShipment

Glo

bal

M

arke

t S

har

e

Source:IEK/ITRI, 2005/05


Strategies & Opportunities

HighAdd-onValue

Design/IP/SoC High-Tech ServiceManufacture

WebPAD

3G Smart Phone

PDA

WLAN

STB

NBIA

Thin client

SoC

IPPatents

Libraries

3G ChipB3G

Software

ASIC Contents

Services

ApplicationsContent

High Market share

High Margin

FDP

• Change mindset from cost down to value up => from high market share to high margin => potential area : value-added solution provisioning

• Extend core competence to include high-end key component and integrated systems instead of box making only.


M-Taiwan

MobileMobileTAIWANTAIWAN

Innovative Mobile Applications

Development in cooperation

with governmental

policies

OperatorsSystem

Integrators

Deployment ofM-City Network

M-Service Applications

M-Life Applications

M-Learning Applications

Public Sectors

Private Sectors

Education Bodies

Local Governments


New Era for Taiwan ICT Industries

•Industry: build up business opportunities for the ICT Industry– Promote communications industry to become another ‘Trillion Industry’– Collaborate with international corporations to stimulate the value chain and

enhance technical abilities as well as global business opportunities•Society: create wireless broadband access environment

– Development environment for seamless internet access: 8 million subscribers without surfing barriers

– Roaming service promotion in campus: build up seamless internet access environment for online learning over the island

– Single account: complete setting up single account for each user to roam over the island

•Nation: strengthen IT infrastructures and services– Elevate national competition : become the top 5 nations in global mobile

internet applications– Enhance governmental efficiency: provide real time government services, offer

mobile health care applications with efficiency for remote regions– Develop mobile cites: build up 10 international mobile cities around Taiwan, 2

of 10 mobile cities will be top 10 in the world


WiMAX Products Development

• The blueprint proposes the following key system products :– WiMAX Chipset

– WiMAX Systems

• Base Station, Wi-Fi/WiMAX Gateway, WiMAX CPE Fixed Relay station, WiMAX Home/Business Terminals

– WiMAX Application Platform

• VoIP, IPTV Broadcast, On-Line Gaming, e–Health

• WiMAX has been selected as an important technology option for the M-Taiwan program.

• The planning and recommendations of WiMAX development made in this blueprint are used as references for related government ministries, industrial sectors, and R&D programs, which strongly suggest tight coupling among different projects.


WiMAX vs WiFi

WiMAX: Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access; 全球互通微波接取

WiFi: Wireless Fi-delity; 高傳真無線接取

WiMAX

IEEE 802.16a/d/2004e

74Mbps

約48公里

約110Kph

項目

規範

傳輸速率

涵蓋範圍

行動速度

WiFi

IEEE 802.11a/b/e/g/n

54Mbps

約100公尺

約30Kph


新聞

線上交易

金融服務

圖書

生活資訊

醫療

行動秘書

行動訂票

行動通訊錄

行動銀行

行動遊戲大宇、遊戲橘子、智冠

行動租車行動點歌

行動預約

行動助理

行動下單

行動路況

行動資訊

行動新聞

行動交友

行動預約

各類上網裝置

Cellular

Smart Phone

Handheld PC

Web PAD

Mini-note

PDA

Applications

訊通

邁葳、數位網紀

儒碩、哈網、英特達、華眾、訊炚

台擎、嘉實

遠流、快捷

飛行電子商務、訊通靈知、

金明臺灣電腦服務

應用是ICT產業發展源頭


藍芽藍芽(( Bluetooth )Bluetooth )產品應用產品應用

通訊

消費性電子

資訊

資料來源：工研院IEK，2003/5

Mobil Phone

Cordless Phone

HeadsetNotebook PC Portable Disk

Printer

Digital Camera

Web Pad

PDA

Coffee Machine

Refrigerator

Set-Top Box

• 2006年Bluetooth 全球市場規模達18.3億美元

• Single Chip Solution預計2003年普及，’03~‘04年間晶片價格可望達到5美元

• 2005年Mobile Phone, PC, PDA之Bluetooth 應用最為廣泛

• 用於行動式、短距離之無線傳送

• 可將所有電子設備無線化，產業關聯更廣


Needs Based Technology

Two fundamental needs from ICT point of view Interconnectivity Interactivity


1. 邏輯：獨立、邏輯思考的能力2. Problem Solving：化繁為簡，抓住重點，解決問題的能力

3. Passion：認同、歸屬、熱情4. Team Work：溝通能力，人際關係

職涯定位：超越專業知識

資通訊產業發展、人才需求與自我定位 · o在財經政策上面 ......

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資通訊產業發展、 人才需求與自我定位 · o在 財經政策上面 ......

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Transcript of 資通訊產業發展、 人才需求與自我定位 · o在 財經政策上面 ......

資通訊產業發展、人才需求與自我定位 · o在財經政策上面 ......

Transcript of 資通訊產業發展、人才需求與自我定位 · o在財經政策上面 ......