船舶燃料应用引领全球甲醇增长 - PolyU · 2020: IMO 0.5% global SOx cap ....
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WWW.METHANOL.ORG Driving Global Methanol Growth in Marine Fuel Applications 船舶燃料应用引领全球甲醇增长 Dom LaVigne Director of Government & Public Affairs -- Asia Pacific/Middle East Motor Vehicle/Vessel Emission Control Workshop 2016 (MoVE 2016) December 14-16, 2016 – Hong Kong
Transcript of 船舶燃料应用引领全球甲醇增长 - PolyU · 2020: IMO 0.5% global SOx cap ....
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Driving Global Methanol Growth in Marine Fuel Applications 船舶燃料应用引领全球甲醇增长
Dom LaVigneDirector of Government & Public Affairs --Asia Pacific/Middle East
Motor Vehicle/Vessel Emission Control Workshop 2016 (MoVE 2016)
December 14-16, 2016 – Hong Kong
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Contents
Maritime Regulatory Changes海事法规变化
What is Methanol?甲醇是什么？
Methanol as a Marine Fuel甲醇船舶燃料
About MI 关于MIContacts 联系方式
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Maritime Regulatory Changes
海事法规变化01
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Marine Fuel in Transition转型中的船舶燃料
• Bunker fuel mostly used in the shipping industry
• 100,000 vessels consuming 372 million tons of fuel (HFO/MGO)
• Bunker fuel has been highly polluting;
• How to comply with IMO regulations?
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Environmental & Health Hazards环境和健康危害
• Five container ships = 11,000 TPA sulfur emissions: more than all petrol-fueled vehicles in the US
• One container ship: pollution = 50 million cars
• 15 largest ships: global SOx emissions = 760 million carsHeavy Fuel Oil: 3.5% sulphur Methanol: No SulphurRoad Diesel: 0.0015% sulphurMarine Gas Oil: 0.1% sulphur
Images source: MethanexData source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/09/shipping-pollution
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Environmental & Health Hazards环境和健康危害
• Globally: 60,000 deaths and US$330bn in health costs
• US$5.5bn costs to Danish health system
• Hong Kong: 60% of SOx emissions during berthing
• SOx pollution from maritime sources: HK (50%), Shenzhen (66%)
Sources:
1. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/09/shipping-pollution2. Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (HK EPD)3. http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hong-kong-sets-emissions-
enforcement-date
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• IMO regulations for SOx and NOx that are transforming the shipping industry.
• While SOx reductions may be met with low sulfur fuels, the combination of SOx and NOx reductions driving shipboard solutions.
SOx-NOx Regulations Driving Market SOx-NOx法规驱动市场
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• SOx ECA in Baltic Sea was adopted in 1997, enforcement began in 2005
• ECA in North Sea was adopted in 2005 and enforcement began in 2006
• 2015: SOx < 0.1%
European ECA 欧洲排放控制区
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• SOx ECA established in 2009, enforcement began in 2012
• Encompass most US/Canadian coasts (>200 nautical miles)
• New-build vessels with keels laid after Jan 1, 2016 must also meet NOx to enter NA ECA
North American ECA 北美排放控制区
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• July 1, 2015: ECA for OGVs in Hong Kong. Similar restrictions within 12 nautical miles of HK waters.
• April 1, 2016: Chinese ECA in the Yangtze River Delta: Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Suzhou, and Nantong (0.5% SOx cap while berthing)
• 2019: China-wide ECA expected
China & Hong Kong ECAs 中国大陆和香港排放控制区
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• 2020: IMO 0.5% global SOx cap 国际海事组织0.5%含硫量限值
• Jan 1, 2021: Baltic Sea and North Sea NOx Emission Control Areas (NECAs) 2021年1月1日波罗的海和北海氮氧化物排放控制区（NECAs）
• CO2 emissions reductions looming CO2 减排逐步迫近
2020 Global Emissions Cap 2020全球硫排放限制
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WHAT IS METHANOL?什么是甲醇02
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Feedstock原料: Abundant充足/Sustainable可持续
Market市场: Large大/Diverse多样化
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Methanol: Essential Chemical Building Block关键的基础化学品
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Where is Methanol Produced?甲醇在哪里生产
• 2016: 115 MMT global capacity; 74 MMT forecasted demand• 2021: 135 MMT global capacity; 97 MMT forecasted demand
• China accounts for over 50% of the world’s methanol production and consumption.
• Methanol production markets include: Azerbaijan, Brunei, China, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Oman, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago, Uzbekistan
• Significant new US capacity in the coming years
Source: IHS Markit, November 2016
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Global Methanol Chemical & Energy Demand 全球甲醇化学和能源需求
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Source: IHS Chemical, March 2015Excludes integrated methanol demand for methanol to olefins
Oil Displacement Drives Demand Growth石油替代驱动需求增长
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Application Current Methanol Demand
(2015E, -000-Tons)
Potential Market Demand
(-000- Tons)Alternative Fuels- Gasoline 11,571 40,000-50,000- Biodiesel 1,197 25,000-40,000- DME 4,970 10,000-15,000- Power Generation & Others
>1 40,000-60,000
Fuel Cells 8 3,000-8,000Methanol-to-Olefins 16,683 30,000-40,000Methanol-to-Gasoline 250 15,000-35,000
Global Demand for Methanol Energy & Power Applications能源和电力领域甲醇需求
Source: Methanol Markets Services Asia (MMSA)
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Methanol’s Benefits 甲醇的优势
1. Safe• Methanol biodegrades quickly• Soluble in water• Can be washed off with soap/water• Harder to ignite than petrol, burns with
1/8 the heat
2. Economical• Economically competitive, non-subsidized• Produced from variety of feedstocks• Complex infrastructure, handling not needed
3. Proven• 80 MMT worldwide demand forecasted for 2016• 160,000 vehicles in China using methanol fuel• Stena Germanica, Methanex new-build tankers
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METHANOL AS A MARINE FUEL
甲醇作为船舶燃料03
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• SOx reduction: Burn low-sulfur MGO with 50% cost premium.
• SOx reduction: Or use selective catalytic reduction (SCR), or exhaust gas recirculation (EGR).
• NOx reduction: Low sulfur fuels not sufficient. No diesel fuels will meet NOx regs.
• Shipboard technologies must be deployed: SCR/EGR or dual-fuel with diesel/LNG or diesel/methanol
Limited Compliance Options现有合规技术有限
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The Environmental Solution环保解决方案
Source: Stena / Effship Project (example for 4-stroke engines)
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The Environmental Solution 环保解决方案
Methanol Emissions 甲醇的排放
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Global Port Terminal Availability全球港口设施充足
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• Gothenburg: pier-side bunker station setup with two methanol fuel transfer pumps, each with 200 m3/h capacity. Pumps methanol from tanker truck to Germanicabunker.
• This “modular” approach can serve several vessels, and grow with demand.
Methanol Bunker Solution甲醇加注解决方案
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Economics & Affordability 经济性和可承受性
• MGO-MDO more expensive than methanol in last five years.
• In China, methanol still most cost-competitive
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Economics & Affordability经济性和可承受性
• Fuel constitutes >50% of ship’s OPEX
• MI-FCBI Methanol as a Marine Fuel Report: Maintenance costs =/< for methanol than traditional fuels
• Large ferry consuming diesel at < 10,000 m3/year:
Achieves payback in 3-5 years with methanol prices of €100-200 (HK$873-1,746) per ton of MGO equivalent. Source: MI-FCBI Methanol as a Marine Fuel Report (2015)
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Economics & Affordability经济性和可承受性
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Methanol•Capital costs for ship conversion 1/3 that of LNG.初始投入仅为LNG的三分之一
•Methanol can easily be stored at any port in the world, again at a fraction of the cost of LNG storage.甲醇更易在任何码头存储，且存储更经济
•Major engine manufacturers confident engines can meet SOx and NOx requirements.主要船机企业确信能够满足SOx和NOx 要求
LNG•70 ships already use LNG as a fuel, while methanol is a cargo.70艘船舶已经使用LNG作为燃料，甲醇仅为货物
•LNG industry has head start in promoting the fuel for marine engine use. LNG行业已经启动先关船舶燃料推广
•Medium speed LNG duel fuel engines can meet SOx/NOx requirements, but slow speed engines cannot meet NOx, and will need SCR or EGR.中速LNG双燃料可以满足SOx和NOx 要求，但低速机无法满足NOx要求，需要SCR 或 EGR
VS
Methanol 甲醇 vs LNG 液化天然气
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Methanol
• Small bunkering unit更小的加注设施： €400,000 (HK$3.49 million)
• Bunker vessel加注船: €1.5 million (HK$13.08 million)
• Retrofit costs (duel-fuel methanol/diesel ships with 10-25MW engines)改造成本（甲醇、柴油双燃料10-25兆瓦）: €250-350/kW (HK$2,180-3,052/kW)
• New-build, dual-fuel methanol ships: also lower CAPEX新建双燃料船，更低的初始投入
LNG
• Terminal加注终端: €50 million (HK$436 million)
• Bunker vessel加注船: €30 million (HK$262 million)
• Retrofit costs改造成本: €1,000/kW (HK$8,720/kW)
VS
Methanol vs LNG
Source: MI-FCBI Methanol as a Marine Fuel Report (2015)
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How It Works 工作原理
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Methanol Commercial Projects商业化项目
• March 2015 (Sweden): Stena Germanica features Wärtsilämethanol-fueled marine engine
• Oct 2015 (Singapore): Billion Miles: small-marine applications
• 2016 (Global): Methanex’sWaterfront Shipping – seven (7) duel-fuel MAN methanol/diesel engines
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Methanol Commercial Projects商业化项目
• 2H-2016 (Sweden/China): ScandiNAOS Green Pilot Boat conversion
• 2015-2018 (Germany): Lloyd’s Register MethaShip project
• Huge cruise ship market: 605 current ships, 15 new ships in 2016-2017.
• 2015 (EU): LeanShips: small- to mid-sized marine engines
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ABOUT MI 关于MI04
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History 历史
• The Methanol Institute (MI) was first formed in 1989 to represent USmethanol producers in Washington.1989年成立于美国华盛顿特区，代表全美甲醇生产商
• 27 years later, MI is truly a global trade association supporting theexpansion of the methanol industry in every corner of the world fromoffices in 目前为甲醇行业的全球性贸易组织，为世界各地活动提供支持，全球四个办事处
S i n g a p o r e | Wa s h i n g t o n | B r u s s e l s | B e i j i n g
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Our 2016 Members 2016会员
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MSF MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN OVER 60 COUNTRIES
• Asian Clean Fuels Association• Bach Mai Hospital Poison Control Center• China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association• Chinese Association of Alcohol & Clean Ether
Fuels & Automobiles (CAAEFA)• Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals
Association (GPCA)• Hanoi Medical University (HMU-IPMPH)• International DME Association (IDA)• International Methanol Producers &
Consumers Association (IMPCA)• LIAM Charitable Fund• Peking University Center for New Global
Energy Strategy Studies• Tajikistan State Committee on Investment• Uzkimyosanoat
MI STRATEGIC PARTNERS 战略合作伙伴
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CONTACTS05
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MSF MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN OVER 60 COUNTRIES
MANY OF THESE COUNTRIES MI HAS TARGETED FOR METHANOL POISONING OUTREACH PROGRAMS, MSF HAS EXISTING OPERATIONS, TO INCLUDE:
• F• F• F• F• F• F• F• F• F• F
CONTACTS
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• G R E G D O L [email protected]
• C H R I S C H AT T E R T O [email protected]
• D O M L AV I G N EDirector of Government Affairs (AP/ME)[email protected] / +65 6325 6302
• L AR RY N AV I N
Senior Manager External [email protected]
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• E E L C O D E C K E RChief EU [email protected]
• K AI Z H AOChief China Representative
• AP R I L C H ANExecutive [email protected]
• S H E E VA N O S H I R VAN
Executive [email protected]
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SINGAPORE (HQ) WASHINGTON D.C. BRUSSELS BEIJING
10 Anson Road#32-10 International PlazaSingapore 079903+ 65 6325 6300
225 Reinekers LaneSuite 205Alexandria, VA 22314+1 (703) 248-3636
Square de Meeûs 38/40B-1000 BrusselsBelgium+32 2 401 61 51
#511, Pacific Sci-tech Development CenterPeking UniversityNo. 52 Hai Dian Rd.Beijing 100871, China+86 10 6275 5984
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