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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
Regional Container Lines Back in red in 3QFY15, first loss in six quarters
THAILAND | SET | TRANS | COMPANY RESULTS BLOOMBERG RCL TB l REUTERS RCL.BK
Back in red in 3QFY15, first loss in six quarters dragged down by lower container freight rates RCL swung to a net loss of Bt35mn in 3QFY15 from a profit of Bt60mn and Bt55mn in 3QFY14 and 2QFY15 respectively, dragged down by a slump in container freight rates. Total turnover sank 4.2% y‐y to Bt3,061mn as a result of lower lifting volumes and falling container freight rates. In this period, lifting volumes plunged 8.5% y‐y to 434,045 TEUs hit by (i) a 14.7% y‐y retreat in shipper‐owned container (SOC) liftings in the face of tougher price competition and (ii) a 2.3% y‐y drop in carrier‐owned container (COC) liftings. Container freight rates fell 4.6% y‐y to US$200 per TEU from US$210 per TEU based on our estimates. Cost of freight and operation held steady at US$186 per TEU. Tight controls on administrative expenses pushed SG&A expenses down 7.4% y‐y. Profit from affiliates shrank 14.6% y‐y in the face of a slowdown in the shipping industry. As the baht weakened 9.8% y‐y to 36.25 to the US dollar according to data from the Bank of Thailand, RCL booked a FX gain of Bt4mn in this period, reversing a FX loss of Bt32mn in the same period last year. Stripping out FX effect and asset disposal gains, RCL recorded a loss from normal business operations of Bt45mn in this period, reversing a a profit of Bt81mn in the same year‐ago period. 4QFY15 outlook better than 3QFY15 aided by a pickup in container freight rates; FY15 profit view cut to Bt220mn to reflect 3QFY15 loss Container freight rates showed signs of picking up in Nov after a collapse in 3QFY15. Lifting volumes are expected to drop further by 8% y‐y in 4QFY15 given that the pace of declines in lifting volumes ranged between 7.5%‐8.5% in 1QFY15‐3QFY15 with an average decrease of 8% in 9MFY15. Due to the prospect of a recovery in container freight rates, we reckon that 4QFY15 results will likely be better than what RCL achieved in 3QFY15. However, 3QFY15 loss gives us an excuse to revise down our FY15 profit outlook for RCL to Bt220mn from a previous view of Bt391mn on expectations that full‐year total turnover will come in at Bt12,047mn, down 9.5% y‐y. Under the new estimate, we (i) slightly raise our lifting volume assumption for the year to 1.74mn TEUs from 1.70mn TEUs based on assumptions of an 8% y‐y drop in 4QFY15 lifting volumes, (ii) leave our full‐year forecast for container freight rates unchanged at US$202 per TEU, (iii) revise upwards our full‐year forecast for cost of freight and operation slightly to US$182 per TEU from US$180 per TEU and (iv) change our US dollar/ Thai baht rate for the year to 34.25. Profit growth momentum set to continue into FY16 but growth rate seen limited The container shipping industry is expected to remain in oversupply against the backdrop of still fierce competition in FY16 but the situation is unlikely to get worse than what it has experienced in FY15. Global economic conditions will remain a major cause of concern. On this basis, we believe RCL should likely carry its profit growth momentum into FY16 but the growth rate may however be limited. Our forecast puts its FY16 net profit at Bt260mn on expectations that total turnover will come in at Bt12,221mn. The forecast is based on assumptions that (i) lifting volumes will drop further by 5% y‐y to 1.66mn TEUs as a result of its service realignment strategy, (ii) container freight rates will go up 1.5% y‐y to US$205 per TEU, (iii) cost of freight and operation will inch up 1% y‐y to US$184 per TEU and (iv) the average US dollar/Thai baht rate will be 36. ‘BUY’ rating maintained with FY16 target price of Bt8.50/share Rolling over our valuation base to FY16 and cutting P/B target to 0.65x based on five‐year trailing average, we trim our target price for RCL to Bt8.50/share but reiterate a ‘BUY’ rating as the new target still offers significant upside from current trading levels.
Ref. No.: CO2015_0869
Closing Price(Bt) 6.40
Target Price(Bt) 8.50 (+32.81%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 829
Market Cap. (Btmn) :
Market Cap. (USDmn) :
52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 11.2/6.15
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 1.24
Par Value (Bt) : 1.00
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. Ngow‐Hok Co., Ltd. 25.2
2. Panjamitr Holding Co., Ltd 18.5
3. Mr. Sumeth Tantuwanit 7.4
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YR
ABS ‐7% ‐14% ‐27%
REL TO SET INDEX ‐5% ‐14% ‐17%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Dec FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Sales(Btmn) 13,112 13,314 12,047 12,221
Net Profit(Btmn) ‐1,653 362 220 260
EPS (Bt) ‐1.99 0.44 0.27 0.31
P/E (X) n.m. 14.5 23.7 20.6
BVPS (Bt) 11.46 11.75 12.81 13.03
P/B (X) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
DPS (Bt) 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.15
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 1.6 1.6 2.3
ROE (%) ‐16.34 3.76 2.16 2.43
Source: Company, PSR Est.
**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
P/B'16 (0.65x)
Siam Tiyanont
Securities Investment Analyst #17970
Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 483
20 November 2015
5,304
148
07 April 2015
Buy (Maintain)
0
5
10
15
20
Nov‐12 Nov‐13 Nov‐14 Nov‐15
RCL TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Regional Container Lines COMPANY RESULTS
Income Statement
Btmn 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
Sa l e s and s e rvi ce s 3,061 3,014 3,195 1.5% ‐4.2% 8,943 10,179 ‐12.1%
Cos ts of s a l e s 2,845 2,703 2,835 5.3% 0.4% 8,036 9,115 ‐11.8%
Gross profit 215 311 360 ‐30.8% ‐40.3% 907 1,064 ‐14.7%
Se l l i ng expenses 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 n.m.
Admini s tra ti ve expens es 246 234 265 5.1% ‐7.4% 699 825 ‐15.3%
Operating profit ‐31 77 95 ‐139.5% ‐132.1% 208 239 ‐12.8%
Other i ncome 26 19 27 34.0% ‐2.6% 66 64 2.4%
Ga in/los s from a ffi l i a tes 14 14 16 ‐5.9% ‐14.6% 43 36 19.8%
Other expens e 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 100.0%
EBIT 9 111 137 ‐91.9% ‐93.5% 317 339 ‐6.5%
Inte res t expense 38 39 40 ‐4.0% ‐4.5% 115 123 ‐6.3%
EBT ‐29 72 98 ‐140.2% ‐129.4% 202 216 ‐6.6%
Taxa tion 10 4 6 132.4% 72.3% 16 6 176.7%
EAT ‐39 67 92 ‐158.0% ‐142.4% 186 210 ‐11.6%
Minori ty 0 0 0 6.1% 337.5% 2 1 84.7%
Net profit before extra ‐39 67 92 ‐158.8% ‐142.9% 183 209 ‐12.2%
Extra ordina ry i tems 4 ‐12 ‐32 136.9% 113.5% 10 ‐13 172.0%
Net profit ‐35 55 60 ‐163.5% ‐158.4% 193 195 ‐1.2%
EPS (Bt) ‐0.04 0.07 0.07 ‐157.1% ‐157.1% 0.23 0.24 ‐4.2%
Key Financial Ratio
% 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
Cos t of s a le s /s a l e s 93.0% 89.7% 88.7% 3.7% 4.8% 89.9% 89.5% 0.3%
SG&A exp/s a l es 8.0% 7.8% 8.3% 3.5% ‐3.3% 7.8% 8.1% ‐3.6%
Gros s margin 7.0% 10.3% 11.3% ‐31.8% ‐37.6% 10.1% 10.5% ‐3.0%
Opera ti ng profi t margin ‐1.0% 2.6% 3.0% ‐138.9% ‐133.5% 2.3% 2.3% ‐0.8%
Net profi t margin ‐1.1% 1.8% 1.9% ‐162.5% ‐161.0% 2.2% 1.9% 12.4%
Balance Sheet
Btmn 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
As s e ts 19,394 18,660 18,708 3.9% 3.7% 19,394 18,708 3.7%
Li abi l i ti e s 8,784 8,750 9,239 0.4% ‐4.9% 8,784 9,239 ‐4.9%
Pa id ‐up (mn s hrs ) ‐ Pa r Bt1 829 829 829 0.0% 0.0% 829 829 0.0%
Equi ti e s 10,610 9,910 9,469 7.1% 12.0% 10,610 9,469 12.0%
BVPS (Bt) 12.80 11.96 11.43 7.0% 12.0% 12.80 11.43 12.0%
Debt/equi ty (x) 0.83 0.88 0.98 ‐5.7% ‐15.3% 0.83 0.98 ‐15.3%
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2014
BAFS BCP BTS CPN EGCO GRAMMY HANA INTUCH IRPC TOP
KBANK KKP KTB MINT PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC SAMART IVL
SAT SC SCB SE‐ED SIM SPALI TISCO TMB THCOM SAMTEL
AAV ACAP ADVANC ANAN AOT ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY
BBL BECL BIGC BKI BLA BMCL BROOK CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT
CK CNT CPF CSL DELTA DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EE
ERW GBX GC GFPT GUNKUL HEMRAJ HMPRO ICC KCE KSL
LANNA LH LHBANK LOXLEY LPN MACO MC MCOT NBC NCH
NINE NKI NMG NSI OCC OFM PAP PE PG PHOL
PJW PM PPS PR PRANDA PS PT QH RATCH ROBINS
RS S & J SAMCO SCC SINGER SIS SITHAI SNC SNP SPI
SSF SSI SSSC STA SVI TCAP TF THAI THANI TSTE
TIP TIPCO TK TKT TNITY TNL TOG TRC TRUE
TSTH TTA TTW TVO UAC VGI VNT WACOAL
2S AF AH AHC AIT AJ AKP AKR AMANAH AMARIN
AMATA AP APCO APCS AQUA ARIP AS ASIA AYUD BEAUTY
BEC BFIT BH BJC BJCHI BOL BTNC BWG CCET CGD
CGS CHOW CI CKP CM CMR CSC CSP CSS DCC
DEMCO DNA EA ESSO FE FORTH FPI GENCO GL GLOBAL
GLOW GOLD HOTPOT HTC HTECH HYDRO IFS IHL INET IRC
IRCP ITD KBS KGI KKC KTC L&E LRH LST MAJOR
MAKRO MATCH MBK MBKET MEGA MFC MFEC MJD MODERN MONO
MOONG MPG MTI NC NTV NUSA NWR NYT OGC OISHI
PACE PATO PB PDI PICO PPM PPP PREB PRG PRIN
PTG QLT QTC RCL SABINA SALEE SCBLIF SCCC SCG SEAFCO
SEAOIL SFP SIAM SIRI SKR SMG SMK SMPC SMT SOLAR
SPC SPCG SPPT SST STANLY STEC STPI SUC SWC SYMC
SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TEAM TFD TFI THANA THIP THREL
TIC TICON TIW TKS TLUXE TMI TMT TNDT TPC TPCORP
TRT TRU TSC TTCL TUF TVD TWFP UMI UP UPF
UPOIC UT UV UWC VIH WAVE WHA WIN WINNER YUASA
ZMICO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐60%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thai land and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai
Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip
Securities (Thai land) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of
such survey result.
No logo given
Number of Logo
Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 4 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securities FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industrial Materials & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materials PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Utilities ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Professional Services PROF
Transportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> +10% Buy
0% to + 10% Neutral
< 0% Sell
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a
stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative
undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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