Economic Growth in Tokugawa Japan ( 徳川幕府・江戸時代 1600-1868)
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Transcript of Economic Growth in Tokugawa Japan ( 徳川幕府・江戸時代 1600-1868)
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Economic Growth in
Tokugawa Japan ( 徳川幕府・江戸時代 1600-1868)
Michael Smitka
October 2009
Warren Wilson College
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Issues
• was Japan poor? -- standard of living
• was the economy static? -- growth process versus political process
• institutional, other legacies
– How hold together / integrate an empire
• Curiosity: merely understanding Edo-era (1600-1868) Tokugawa hegemony
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Models
• Not for today! – you’re not all econ people!– Solow one-sector model
• Output as function of – technology– inputs of Kapital, Labour– diminishing returns
– Lewis-Fei-Ranis two-sector model: agriculture, urban• population growth can eat up gains
– hence agriculture is important
• also core source of “industrial” inputs
• Both highlight Malthus: demographics in a traditional, low savings-cum-investment economy
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Other factors besides “hard” tech
• organizational & institutional change are both underrated– “Smithian” growth via specialization and trade:
“classical” growth in all senses of the word– government provision of infrastructure, other
public goods– development of business networks and accepted
practices in markets: institutional infrastructure
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Demographics
Low Population Growth Central!
• population growth can swamp positive factors
• indeed, for most of human history standards of living changed little
• how about Japan? -- and if not, why?– Late marriage led to low fertility– Lots of evidence of conscious family planning!
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Shifts in Family Structure
Average for Selected villagesSuwa Region, modern Nagano Prefecture
Avg. Household Size Avg Couples per HouseholdNishiko Yamaura Nishiko Yamaura
1671-1700 7.87 8.55 1.97 1.831701-1750 6.14 9.93 1.41 2.341751-1800 4.66 6.94 1.32 2.051801-1850 4.22 4.73 1.25 1.371851-1870 4.31 4.48 1.20 1.30
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Population Growth Rates
Region 1798 1804 1828 1834 growth 1846‘98-’46Kinki 93.5 93.5 0.0%Tokai 100.1 106.6 6.5%Kanto 85 86.6 1.9%Tohoku 86 88.7 3.1%Tozan 106.1 110.1 3.8%Hokuriku 105.3 117.6 11.7%San'in 118.8 120 129.9 132.7 11.7% 124.8 4.0%San'yo 106.8 109.9 119.8 121.8 14.0% 120.2 9.4%Shikoku 111.7 114.9 123.8 126.1 12.9% 126.8 10.4%Kyushu 105.3 107.3 111.3 112.2 6.6% 113.8 6.1%
1721 = 100Kinki, Tokai, Kanto, Tohoku, Tozan all fell. 48 yearsHokuriku slow growth selected regions,
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Basic Historical Overview
• breakdown of old Muromachi order• continual warfare during 1500s,
• large, musket-using armies made samurai obsolete and were equal to anything the Spanish had
• but fielding 100,000 armed troops takes money
• Symbol of economic growth• not possible before late 1500s• spread of irrigated rice, other new crops (cotton)• civil engineering techniques from China enabling much
more irrigation
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Area of Indica
(short-grain)
Rice Cultivation
–early 1700s
–darker hatching indicates greater
cultivation of indica rice
–
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Geopolitical context
• 1540: arrival of Francis Xavier & diffusion of muskets
• Legitimate fears of invasion– Colonization of Philippines– Weakening & Collapse of Ming China
• End of endemic war / unification under Oda Nobunaga & Toyotomi Hideyoshi
• Trade in silver for silk: no bulk goods
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Tokugawa Ieyasu (1600)
• Tokugawa shogunate organized in 1603 – Tokugawa Ieyasu & allies won final battle in 1600
– Only controlled 25% of country directly
– Large “tozama” han (countries) never conquered
– How to maintain the peace?• Foreign affairs• Sankin kotai - hostages, alternate attendance in Edo• Separate samurai from farmers
• Compare with how Chinese rulers held together their various empires!
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The two 250’s
• multiple “kuni” (country?!) – each headed by a semi-autonomous “daimyo” (lord)
– variations in laws, economic structure
– National cadastral survey was basis of land tax
• roughly 250 political-economic units– Most extremely small
– Samurai moved to cities: forestalls peasant revolts
– Peasants disarmed
• Peace for 250 years!– Europe has never managed that
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Mid-16th Century Han(“countries”)
Uesugi ImagawaMōri HōjōTakeda ŌtomoShimazu Chōsokabe
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1664 Kuni ( 国 countries)
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Growth stimulus?
• Tokugawa control system had:– implications for macroeconomic resource flows
in a two-sector context– implications for commercialization and
monetization of the economy
• Lewis two-sector model: forced flows?– Attendance in Edo (Tokyo) forced development
of financial system and logistics
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Roadto
Edo
江戸
(Tokyo)
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Government role
• the Edo “bakufu” fostered navigation– port and lighthouse development
– maps etc. all by around 1720
• formal financial markets promoted– rice futures market in Osaka by 1720
– transferring money in place of in-kind taxes
– insurance markets (esp. casualty)
– local (rural) finance by 1800s
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1685Japan Sea Route Pending
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Shipping Routes after 1720
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1791Full Route with Ports & Distances
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Market-oriented economy
• especially intense development in several regions– cash-crop farms around Osaka (farmers bought food!)
– large urban consumer market
• commercial elite for whom political advancement was foreclosed (cf. English Dissenters)
• education spread.– ukiyoe were for mass-market (wedding presents…)
– lots of agricultural handbooks - 200+ titles in print
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Osaka Merchant District
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http://rarebook.ndl.go.jp/pre/servlet/pre_wa_fit.jsp;jsessionid=2419EDC4E5EBB686E3E2EDCC618A6D3A
蚕養図会画本宝能縷 1739
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Specialization by the “kuni”(export products)
• Silk, cotton, salt, lumber, paper, fish
• Some regions largely industrial
• Seasonal “proto-industry” often accompanied by
regional migration
• Both men & women active in wage labor outside
the home
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Osaka as an Entrepot (1714)Principal non-Rice Imports / Exports
Imports ExportsMarine products 20.2% Oil & beeswax 36.4%Agricultural items 19.5 Clothing & textiles 25.2Clothing & textiles 15.4 Misc tools 7.5Oilseed 12.9 Misc exports 7.3Mining products 7.5 Processed food 6.1Fertilizer 6.4 Accessories & decorations5.8Wood products 5.9 Lacquerware & pottery 4.6Misc Imports 4.1 Seedcake (fertilizer) 3.4Tea & tobacco 2.8 Furniture 0.5Tatami 2.0 Weapons 0.5Kyoto crafts 0.9 Arts & crafts 0.4%Total (Ag value) 286,561 kan Total 95,800 kan
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Extent of Cotton CultivationJapan remained able to shift land out of food crops
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Specialization in AgricultureCotton Production
Koga county, Harima han near modern Kobe
IrrigatedYear fields Dryland Reclaimed Total1801 0.4% 13.7% 28.5% 8.2%1807 0.6 15.1 25.2 8.21813 3.0 41.5 36.9 17.31822 4.3 38.6 36.8 17.41832 0.5 34.5 34.8 13.41842 2.2 38.6 36.9 16.21847 1.5 35.2 35.2 14.5
Note: I find it surprising that any irrigated fields were used for cotton instead of rice!In the 1880s imports led to a sharp drop in domestic output, and production ceased by 1900.
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Standard of Living
• transformation of consumption– various rough fibers replaced by cotton; silk worn by more than
just elite
– new (and better foods). peppers, sweet potatoes / taro, corn, etc.
– new and better housing: tatami mats off the ground
– vast increases in protein-laden soybean-related consumption (miso, soy sauce)
• Education– Literate society, perhaps more so than England!
– Vast outpouring of books, circulated through lending libraries
– Even nascent “western” studies, esp. in 1800s
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End of Tokugawa rule
• 250 years of peace meant hard to forestall Western imperialists
• Delicate political balance made it impossible to increase revenue– taxing goods & commerce would create big winners, politically out
– Land tax meant fixed government revenues in a growing economy
• US Adm. Perry (1854) and Russians in north forced opening of ports– Beefing up military crucial
– Personalities ruled out restructuring Tokugawa domestic accord
• Lack of national government, lack of standing army no longer tenable
• Outside tozama han put together alliance and toppled the Tokugawa family in a nearly-bloodless coup
• Only remaining national symbol - the Emperor - used by victors
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Kawaguchi Ironware
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Zaguri (silk weaving
machine)
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Loom (karabikibata)c. 1770
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SpinningSilk
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Whale Processing
Factory
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Growth of a National MarketRice Price Movements Converged in the 17th Century
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Structure of National Output
– 1874 –
• shortly after “opening” to the West
• before significant structural change from– new technologies – convergence of domestic &
international prices
Agriculture rice
Industry textiles food
Other
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Queries
• Was China a modern economy?– When?– Extent?
• Cf. William Skinner on economic geography of Ming China
• Cf. Kenneth Pomeranz on lower Yangtze river and limits to growth
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Data
• Following slides provide select data and pictures of technology for Edo ear
• See library for the period from 1868-1945, e.g.– Economic growth in prewar Japan / Takafusa Nakamura ; translated by
Robert A. Feldman,Yale University Press 1983 HC462.8 .N25513 1983
– Cambridge History of Japan, various entries, DS835 .C36 1988
– The interwar economy of Japan : colonialism, depression, and recovery, 1910-1940 / edited with introductions by Michael Smitka. Garland Pub., 1998 HC462.7 .I584 1998
– Japanese prewar growth : lessons for development theory? / edited with introductions by Michael Smitka Garland Pub., 1998 HC462.7 .J385
1998