EBO Presentation
Transcript of EBO Presentation
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Overview
Introduction
Historical Perspective
Why EBO Now?
Doctrinal Implications
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EBO Defined
“An effects-based approach is one whereoperations against enemy systems areplanned, executed, and assessed in order to
achieve specific effects that contribute directlyto desired military and political outcomes.”
AFDC White Paper March 2004
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Historical Perspective
• Alexander • Frederick
• Napoleon• Civil War • WW I• WW II• Vietnam
• Falklands• Desert Storm• Allied Force
• Enduring Freedom• Iraqi Freedom
Attrition
Precision
Maneuver
Information
EBO
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What’s New in EBO
One Could Argue Nothing , but
EBO Offers
• A more comprehensive mental model• A Systematic Approach
• More Emphasis and Rigor • Expands Traditional Solution Space
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Why EBO Now?
• Nature of Conflict
• Advanced Capabilities• Precision• Penetration/Stealth
• Geo-location• Info Ops/Psy Ops• Space Ops• Sensors
• Analysis• Deception• C2 Connectivity
• Expectations• Media
GlobalHawk
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Total EBO Environment
CoalitionNational
US National
CTF
CFACC CFLCC CMFCC Other
NGOs
Gov Agencies
Strategic
Tactical
Operational
EBO can be applied at any level,even in the absence of an effects based approach at any other level
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From Theory to Application
Theory Application
• Direct/Indirect Effects• Functional/Systemic
• Cascading/Cumulative• Sequential/Parallel• Intended/Unintended• Complex Theory• Chaos Theory• Causal Links
• Complex Adaptive Systems• Probabilistic Models• Decision Aids• ….
• Strategic• Operational• Tactical• Doctrine• TTPs• Training
• Procedures
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From Theory to Application
Theory Application
• Direct/Indirect Effects• Functional/Systemic
• Cascading/Cumulative• Sequential/Parallel• Intended/Unintended• Complex Theory• Chaos Theory• Causal Links
• Complex Adaptive Systems• Probabilistic Models• Decision Aids• ….
• Strategic• Operational• Tactical• Doctrine• TTPs• Training
• Procedures
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From Theory to Application
Theory Application
• Direct/Indirect Effects• Functional/Systemic
• Cascading/Cumulative• Sequential/Parallel• Intended/Unintended• Complex Theory• Chaos Theory• Causal Links
• Complex Adaptive Systems• Probabilistic Models• Decision Aids• ….
• Strategic• Operational• Tactical• Doctrine• TTPs• Training
• Procedures
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Doctrinal Evolution
EffectsEffects--BasedBased
ObjectivesObjectives--BasedBased(Strategies(Strategies--ToTo--Task)Task)
TargetTarget--BasedBased• Physical Effects• No Explicit Target Linkage
• Links targets through
“Strategy-to-Task
• Considers Full Range of Possible Effects
• Explicitly ConsidersEnemy Reactions/Adaptation
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Doctrinal Implications
JP 3-30 Figure III-6
Linking Strategy to Task
JFC Mission
Operational Objectives(Success Indicators/MoMs)
Tactical Objectives(MoMs)
Tactical Tasks
(Directive Statements)
JFACC/CFACC Mission
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Doctrinal Implications
A = Action E = Direct Effect (Condition)
CL = Causal Linkage O = Objective
E
E
E
E
Effects Based Methodology
A
A
A
O
CL
CL
CL
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Doctrinal Implications
E
E
E
E
Effects Based Methodology
A
A A
O
CL
CL
CL
Linking Strategy to Task
JFC Mission
Operational Objectives(Success Indicators/MoMs)
Tactical Objectives(MoMs)
Tactical Tasks(Directive Statements)
JFACC/CFACC Mission ?
T T T
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Doctrinal Implications
Effects BasedMethodology
(planner’s perspective)
Objective
Tasks
Effects MOEsAssessment
Strategy
Effects LeadingTo Objective?
Success Indicators (SIs)
Tasks ProducingDesired Effects?
Measure of Performanc(MOP)
O
E E E E
T T T
Causal Links
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Doctrinal Implications
Linking Strategy to Task
JFACC/CFACC Mission
Operational ObjectivesDesired Effects and MoEs
Tactical ObjectivesDesired Effects and MoEs
JFC Mission
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CFACC Example
Objective
Tasks
EffectsMOEs
AssessmentStrategy
Effects LeadingTo Objective?
(SIs)
Tasks ProducingDesired Effects
(MOP)
Gain Air Superiority
ReduceC2
Effectiveness
ReduceSortie
Generation
ReduceSAM
Acquisitions
JamC2
Channels
TargetC2
Nodes
Target Aircraft
On Fields
TargetRunways/Taxiways
ConductFighter
Sweeps
TargetSAM
Radars
JamSAM
Radars
Causal Links
Target
POLStorage
Provide
WeaselEscort
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Requisites for Applying EBO
Correct Objectives to Achieve Desired End-State
Appropriate MOEs that can be observed and interpreted
Assessment Strategy and Capability
Simple Mental Models
Problem/Solution/Design Space
DIME
Evolved Doctrine and Procedures
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Some Recent Conflicts
V i e t n
a m
F a l k l a n d
s
D e s e r t
S t o r m
K o s o
v o
I r a q i
F r e
e d o m
Clear Nat Objs
Clear Mil Objs
T-E-O Linkage
MOEs
Assessment
T-E-O =
Task ,Effect,Objective
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The KISS Principle Applies to EBO
From the not-so-famous organizational theorist and entrepreneur Dee Hock
“ Simple, clear purpose and principles
give rise to complex, intelligent behavior.
Complex rules and regulationsgive rise to simple, stupid behavior.”
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Questions
Mike Carpenter The MITRE [email protected]
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