（最終版）Earth Simulator based climate modelling

8/14/2019 Earth Simulator based climate modelling

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Earth Simulator based climate modellingwith AR4 findings & application to adaptation studies

Hiroki Kondo

Principal ScientistIPCC Contributing Earth Environment Projection Project

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

JICA Training Course Lecture (12 February 2010)JICA Training Course Lecture (12 February 2010)


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(UNEP)

IPCC Structure for the AR4(2007)

WG(Mitigation)

Co-chairs

(2)Vice

Chairs(6)

InventoryTask Force

Co-chairs(2)

Members(12)

WG (Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability)

Co-chairs (2)

Vice Chairs (6)

TSU(USA)

TSU (UK

TSU Netherla

nds

TSU (Japan)

WG(Physical sciencebasis)

Co-chairs (2)Vice Chairs(6)

UNEP

IPCCPlenary

Chair Vice Chairs(3)

WMO

IPCC Bureau

(30 members)


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IPCC/AR4

*SPM: Summary for policy makers to be approved line by line.

Longer Part: detail part to be adoptedparagraph by paragraph.

WG(Physical ScienceBasis) SPM

TL, Chapters

WG(Impacts, Adaptation

and Vulnerability)

SPMTL,Chapters

WG(Mitigation)

SPM

SynthesisReportSPM

Longer Part

TL, Chapters


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[AR4]: Virtually certain> 99%probability of occurrence, Extremely likely>95%, Very likely> 90%, Likely> 66%,More likely than not> 50%,

Unlikely< 33%, Very unlikely< 10%,Extremely unlikely< 5%

levels of confidence to express expert judgements on the correctness of the

underlying science:

very high confidence : at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct;

high confidence : about an 8 out of 10 chance of being correct

[TAR]: virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true);

very likely (90-99% chance);

likely (66-90% chance); medium likelihood (33-66% chance);

unlikely (10-33% chance);

very unlikely (1-10% chance);

exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance).

How to express the degree of certainty or uncertainty


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Development of major IPCC messages

1990 First Assessment Report (FAR)

continued accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in theatmosphere would lead to climate change .

1995 Second Assessment Report (SAR) the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human

influence on global climate.2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR) Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years islikelyto have

beendue to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

(likely in TAR: 66 90% of chance)

2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the

mid-20th century isvery likelydue to the increase in greenhouse gasconcentrations very likely in AR4:probability of more than 90%)


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Observed and estimated

climate up to now


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(IPCC/WG1/AR4)

Warmest 12 years:1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006,

2001, 1997, 1995, 1999, 1990, 2000


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Average NH temperaturesduring the second half of the 20th century were very likelyhigher thanduring any other 50-year period in the last 500 years andlikelythe highest in at least the past 1,300years.

NH Temperature change in the past 1,300 years

IPCC/WG1/AR4


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Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm)

20th century: +0.17m +1.7 mm / yearon average

1961 2003 1.8 mm/ yearon average 1993 2003 3.1 mm/ yearon average Whether this faster ratereflects

decadal variability or an increase in the longer term trend is unclear.But, new data since the TAR now show that losses from the ice sheets of

IPCC/WG1/AR4


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IPCC/WG1/AR4


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Snow cover (NH) and Glacier (global)

IPCC/WG1/AR4


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Summer minimum arctic sea ice extent(from 1979 to 2005)

Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global averagerate in the past 100 years. Satellite data since 1978 show that annualaveragearctic sea ice extent

has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases in summer

of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade.Antarctic sea ice extent continues to show interannual variability and

localised changes but no statistically significant average trends,

IPCC/WG1/AR4


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September 2007:The smallestextent on record (NSIDC)


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Post-AR4 observation: Further decrease of arctic sea ice extent


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Observed changes in extreme weather

Hot days, hot nights, and heat waveshavebecome more frequent over the last 50 years.

More intense and longer droughtshave beenobserved over wider areas since 1970s.

The frequency of heavy precipitation eventshas increased over most land areas, consistentwith warming and observed increases ofatmospheric water vapour.

There is observational evidence foran intensetropical cyclone activity in the North Atlanticsince about 1970.


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Mechanism of climate system

and greenhouse effect


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Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions

(IPCC/WG1/AR4)


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An idealised model of the natural greenhouse effect

(IPCC/WG1/AR4)


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Attribution of the global warming


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Carbon Dioxide(CO2)

Methane(CH4)

Nitrous Oxide(N2O)

Changes in greenhouse

gases from ice core

and modern data

(IPCC/WG1/AR4)


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Budget of atmospheric CO2 per year(In1990s; figures are in terms offlux to the atmosphere;AR4

Total AnthropogenicEmission 8.0 GtC/yr - From fossil fuel and cement production 6.4GtC/yr

- From land use change 1.6 GtC/yr

Total Natural Absorption - 4.8 GtC/yr

- Net ocean absorption - 2.2 GtC/yr- Net biosphere absorption on land - 2.6 GtC/yr

3.2 GtC/yearremained as additional amount to the

atmosphere

In 1980s (Updated from TAR Anthropogenic Emission 6.8 GtC/yr Natural Absorption - 3.5 GtC/yr

3.3 GtC/yearremained as additional amount to the atmosphere


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Estimates of sea-to-air flux of CO2

Estimates (4 5) of sea-to-air flux of CO2, computed using 940,000 measurements of surface water pCO2collected since 1956 and averaged monthly, together with NCEP/NCAR 41-year mean monthly wind speeds

and a (10-m wind speed)2 dependence on the gas transfer rate (Wanninkhof, 1992). The fluxes werenormalised to the year 1995 using techniques described in Takahashi et al. (2002), who used wind speeds

(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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From 58 Experiments by 14Models

(From 19 Experiments by 5 Models)

Most of the observed

increase in global

average temperatures

since the mid-20thcentury isvery likely

due to the observed

increase in

anthropogenicgreenhouse gas

concentrations.

Attribution

(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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Projection of climate change


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Emission scenarios:

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES, 2000)

A1:a future world of very rapid economic growth, etc.A1FI: with fossil-intensive energy sources

A1T: with non-fossil energy sources

A1B: with a balance across all energy sources [Medium]

A2:a very heterogeneous world with self relianceand preservation of local identities [High]

B1: a world with emphasis on globalsolutions to economic,

social and environmental sustainability [Low]B2: a world with emphasis on localsolutions to economic,

social and environmental sustainability.


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Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming

6 SRES Marker Scenarios

(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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Projected global average surface warming and

sea level rise at the end of the 21st century

Table notes:

a: These estimates are assessed from a hierarchy of models that encompass a simple climate model,

several Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity and a large number of Atmosphere-Ocean

General Circulation Models (AOGCMs).

b: Year 2000 constant composition is derived from AOGCMs only.

(IPCC/WG1/AR4)

W i i t d t b t t l d d t t hi h th l tit d


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Warmingis expected to be greatest over landandat most high northern latitudes,

and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

B1

A1B

A2

(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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Figure SPM.7. Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090

2099, relative to 19801999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES

A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas

are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled

areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of thechange.

(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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Projections ofextreme eventsand related

regional climate in the 21st century

It is very likelythat hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation

events will continue to become more frequent.

Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at most high

northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the

North Atlantic Ocean.

Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likelyin high

latitudes, while decreases are likelyin most subtropical land

regions (by as much as about 20% in the A1B scenario in 2100), continuing

observed patterns in recent trends.

It is likelythat future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will

become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy

precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea

surface temperatures.


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Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback

Increase of CO2

concentrationGlobal

warming

Impact onCarbon cycle

Further increase of

CO2 concentration

Further GlobalWarming

For the A2 scenario, for example, the climate-carbon cycle feedback increases the

corresponding global average warming at 2100 by more than 1.


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Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to increasing

acidification of the ocean. Projections based on SRES scenarios give reductions in average global surface

ocean pH ofbetween 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st century, adding to the

present decrease of 0.1 units since pre-industrial times.

Acidification of the ocean

IPCC/WG1/AR4


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Meridional overturning circulation (MOC)

It is very likelythat the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic

Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. The multi-model average reduction by 2100 is 25% (range from zero to about

50%) for SRES emission scenario A1B.

(IPCC/WG1/AR4)


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Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES

scenarios. In some projections, arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost

entirely by the latter part of the 21st century. WG1/AR4/SPM)

(Holland et al., 2006)

Summer sea ice concentration simulated

and projected (post AR4 finding)


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Impact of climate change

Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change


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p p g g p g

(IPCC/WG1-AR4)


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Reduction options for stability


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Category I concentration to be stabilized350 400 ppm or CO2equivalent

445490ppm in terms of external forcings including GHGs and aerosols

To attainCategory I, emission must to peak out around2000 2015,and

emission in2050must be reduced-85 -50 from the level of 2000.

Under the Category I, temperature would increase2.0 2.4 from pre-

(IPCC/AR4)

Ch i i f TAR bili i


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Characteristics of post-TAR stabilisationscenarios and resulting long-termequilibrium global average temperature

and the sea level rise component from thermalexpansion only

(IPCC/AR4/SYR)

Th f th diff b t i i i 1990


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The range of the difference between emissions in 1990

and emission allowances in 2020/2050(for various GHGconcentration levels for Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group)

(IPCC/WG /AR4/Page 776/ Box 13.7)


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International activities forpost-Kyoto negotiation


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Outcomes from the COP15(Copenhagen, December 2009)

COP13agreed to finalize negotiations for the newframework to follow up the Kyoto Protocol by the end of

the COP15 in 2009.

Negotiations to finalize the post-Kyoto framework under

the two working groups (AWG-KPandAWG-LCA) wereunsuccessful and eventually suspended towards the

next Mexico City Conference (COP16) in 2010.

But, COP15 narrowly decided after long deliberation

beyond the night of the last day of the COP15 into the

morning and day time of the next day totake note ofthe

Copenhagen Accordagreed upon by Heads of State,Heads of Government, Ministers, and other heads.


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Some of the Major points ofCopenhagen Accord They agree thatdeep cuts in global emissions are required according to

science, and as documented byAR4with a view to reduce global

emissions so as tohold the increase in globaltemperature below 2(note: from pre-industrial) , and take action to meet this objectiveconsistent with science and on the basis of equity.

Adaptationto the adverse effects of climate change and the potentialimpacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries.

Annex Parties commit to implement individually or jointly the quantifiedeconomy-wide emissions targets for 2020, to be submitted in the format by 31 January 2010...

Non-Annex Parties will implement mitigation actions, including those tobe submitted by 31 January 2010

Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate funding as well

as improved access shall be providedto developing countries toenable and support enhanced action on mitigation, including substantialfinance to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation(REDD-plus), adaptation, technology development and transfer andcapacity-building, for enhanced implementation of the Convention.


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The Role of the Earth Simulator

Japan Others


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1990 1995 2000 2005

Earth Simulator

10G

100G

1T

10T

100T

The Earth Simulator (ES) with peak performance of40 teraflops

became available in2002(top until late 2004)

The Earth Simulator (ES)


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The Earth Simulator (ES)

Node (8 CPU)

Crossbar switch

Nodes: 640, CPUs: 5120

Peak Performance: 40 Teraflops

Magnetic Disks

http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp/esc/jp/ES/index.html

65

meter

50 meter

131 Teraflops in the Updated Earth Simulator (ES2)

High-resolution Coupled Ocean-atmosphere


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High resolution Coupled Ocean atmosphere

Modelingand Global Warming Projection under

Scenarios(CCSR* et al.**)

High-resolution Coupled Model (MIROC) Atmosphere: T106 (~120 km)and 56 levels and

Ocean: 1/4 in latitude and 1/6 in longitude

Medium-resolution version (T42L20 ) has also beendeveloped to make projection experiments by the abovemodels for majorIPCC/SRES scenarios.

- Projections on east Asian regional climate, climate

extremes and ocean currents were focused.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*: CCSR =Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo

**: National Center for Environmental Studies (NIES) and Frontier ResearchCenter for Global Change (FRCGC) / Japan Agency for Marine-Earth

Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Intensity of Kuroshio current


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Intensity ofKuroshio current

projected to increase

(CCSR/NIES/FRCGC)


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(CCSR/NIES/FRCGC)


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Integrated Earth system modeling

(JAMSTEC/FRSGC)

Main focus:Feed back effect of climate carbon

cycle

-Modeling of the Earth systemwith inclusion of

carbon cycle covering biospheric interaction

between atmosphere, ocean and land, into the

CCSR/NIES/FRCGC climate model. Processes inatmospheric chemistryin the stratosphere and

troposphere are also included


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Simulated and projected CO2 concentration (ppmv)

With feedback

Without feedback

Emission scenario: A2

(JAMSTEC/FRCGC)

Super-high resolution global and regional


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climate modeling (MRI/JMA* et Al.**

Modeling of a AGCM with a super-highhorizontal resolution of about 20 km (TL959)and 60 vertical levels (L60) in the atmosphere.

- The model is an unprecedented global atmosphere modelresolvable even the eye of a tropical cyclone for long-term run.

- Simulation experiments show reasonable results andprojection experiments were made through a time-slicemethod

Modeling of a cloud resolvable non-hydrostatic regional atmospheric

model with a resolution of a several kilometers in grid size.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------*: MRI/JMA = Meteorological Research Institute / Japan

Meteorological Agency**: Numerical Prediction Division (NPD)/JMA, Advanced Earth

Science and Technology Organization (AESTO) and JapanAerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

C20C simulation SRES scenario projection


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C20C simulation SRES scenario projectionby MRI Medium resolution AOGCM (MRI-

CGCM2.3)

A1B

1860 1900 20002100

A2

B2B1

Commitment

Present: 1979-

1998

Future: 2080-

2099(nearly2xCO2)

(JMA/MRI/AESTO)

simulated typhoonnder the present climate


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nder the present climate

(JMA/MRI/AESTO)


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(JMA/MRI/AESTO)


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Blue: Jan.-Mar, Green: AprilJune, Red: July Sept,Blown: Oct Dec

(JMA/MRI/AESTO)


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(JMA/MRI/AESTO)

Distribution of change in hot/cold days in the future (JMA/MRI/AESTO)


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Research activities for AR5

with the updated Earth Simulator(ES2)

IPCC St t f th AR5


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(UNEP)

IPCC Structure for the AR5(2009)

WG(Mitigation)

Co-chairs

(3)ViceChairs(6)

InventoryTask Force

Co-chairs(2)

Members(12)

WG (Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability)

Co-chairs (2)

Vice Chairs (6)

TSU(Switzerla

nd)

TSU

(USA

TSU

Germany

TSU (Japan)

WG(Physical sciencebasis)

Co-chairs (2)Vice Chairs(6)

UNEP

IPCCPlenary Chair Vice Chairs(3)

WMO

IPCC Bureau

(31 members)

Changes!

IPCC/WG1/AR5 (t b l t d i 2013)


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IPCC/WG1/AR5(to be completed in 2013)Chapter Outline

Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

Chapter 7:Clouds and Aerosols Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global

to Regional Chapter 11:Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability

Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitmentsand Irreversibility

Chapter 13:Sea Level Change Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future

Regional Climate Change

Annexes including Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections

Utilization of


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Utilization of

the Updated Earth Simulator(ES2)


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5-year initiative (FY 2007-2011)by theMEXT(Ministry

of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology )

launched in April 2007

The Program is to follow-up and develop theKyo-sei

Project(FY 2002-2006)

The updatedEarth Simulator (ES2)

is utilized.

The Program intends tocontribute to the AR5.

Innovative Program of Climate ChangeInnovative Program of Climate Change

Projection for the 21st centuryProjection for the 21st century

(KAKUSHIN Program)(KAKUSHIN Program)

Cli t h j tiCli t h j ti


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Long-Term Global Change

Projection (~2300)

Climate change projectionClimate change projectionusing theusing theEarth SimulatorEarth Simulator((ES2ES2))

AdvancingClimate

Modeling

and Projection

Quantification

andreduction

of uncertainty

Application of

Regional

Projections

to Natural Disasters

Contribution to IPCC AR5

Scientific Basis for

Polic makers

Contribution to IPCC AR5

Scientific Basis for

Policymakers

Near-Term Climate Prediction

(20~30 years prediction)

Extreme Event Projection

(Typhoon, Heavy rain, etc.)

Cloud Modeling

Parameterization of

Marine Microphysics

KAKUSHIN Program andAR5 schedule


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April 2006: Third Basic Plan for Science and Technology(FY2006-FY2010) started

Feb. 2007: IPCC/WG1/AR4 completed

April ------: KAKUSHIN Program was launchedKAKUSHIN Program was launched

Sept. 2008: New IPCC Bureau elected for AR5

July 2009 Scoping meeting DraftingAR5 Nov. ------ Each WG plenary and IPCC Plenary Basic AR5 structure

fixed

Substantial projection experiments

April 2010: AR5 Writing team CLAs LAs REs ) for each WG beselected

Sept. ------: First meeting of WG1/LAs Informal Review Output analysis, paper submission and acceptance

May 2011 Second meeting ofWG1/LAs Expert Review

Dec. ------: Third meeting of WG1/LAs

Mar. 2012: End of KAKUSHIN ProgramEnd of KAKUSHIN Program Government/Expert Review

Aug. ------ Fourth meeting ofWG1/LAs GovernmentReview

Feb. 2013 WG1plenary Completion of WG1/AR 5Completion of WG1/AR 5

Sep. 2014:Sep. 2014: IPCC Plenary Completion of the whole AR5

KAKUSHINKAKUSHIN

Regionally detail projection of Indonesiani f ll h t th d f th 21 t t


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Increase in rainy seasonand

decrease in dry season

Need in adaptation ofwater use foragriculture

rainfall change at the end of the 21st century

Dec-Feb

Jun-Aug

(MRI/JMA/AESTO/MEXT)

Regionally detail Indian summer monsoon rainfall


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g y

20-km modelIMD observation

Orographic rainfallis successfullyreproduced

Rajendran and Kitoh (2008) Curr Sci

Observed global vegetation distribution


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Simulated global vegetation distribution

(JAMSTEC/FRCGC)

Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Cloud-resolving


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y g

Atmospheric Model (NICAM)by

Masaki Sato et. al

JAMSTEC, CCSR

Global atmospheric modelwith

its resolution up to 3.5km

Cloud or cloud cluster resolvable

Developed from 2000 by making

use of the Earth Simulator since2002

Advanced and unique model

Regionally detail climate modellingapplied to adaptation st dies


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applied to adaptation studies

WorkingGroup(Physical Science

Basis)

WorkingGroup (IAV*)

Woking

Group (Mitigation)

Synthesis Rep.

IPCCAssessment Reports (AR4 &AR5

Super-high resolution (20 km)

global atmospheric modelling

Some of major outcomes

Projection ofincreased strength

of Typhoons & Hurricanes (new finding)

Projection ofregionally detail extremeevents (heat waves, droughts, etc.) under

sufficient regional geographic effects

Projection of temporally detail behaviour

such as diurnal precipitation change

Earth

Simulator

SoundScientificBasis for

Adaptation

Measures

(* IAV = Impact,Adaptation andVulnerability)

Adaptation

Studies[WB funds, JICA funds]

Cooperation activities of the MRI groupCooperation activities of the MRI group(by Earth SimulatorEarth Simulator computed model outputscomputed model outputs for adaptation studiesfor adaptation studies)


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(byEarth SimulatorEarth Simulatorcomputed model outputscomputed model outputsfor adaptation studiesfor adaptation studies)

Cooperation under theCooperation under the JICAJICA(Japan International Cooperation Agency)(Japan International Cooperation Agency)fundsfunds

Adaptation studies in agriculture inArgentina:Argentina (three, 2008) Adaptation studies in monsoonAsia:Bangladesh, Indonesia,

Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam (one each, 2008 & 2009) Adaptation studies in peninsula de Yukatn, Mexico (three, 2009)

Cooperation under theCooperation under the World BankWorld Bank fundsfunds

Other collaborations with India, Korea, Thailand, USA, Switzerland,

Adaptation study in Coastal Zones ofCaribbean countries: Barbados

(one, 2005), Belize (one, 2005) Adaptation studies in Colombiancoastal areas, high mountain

ecosystems:Colombia (two, 2005; two, 2009)

Adaptation to Climate Impacts in the Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf ofMexico: Mexico (two, 2006)

Adaptation to Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes: Peru(one,2006; one, 2010?), Ecuador (one, 2006; One, 2009), Bolivia (one, 2006)

Amazon Dieback: Brazil (two, 2008)

Summary (on scientific aspects)


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Summary (on scientific aspects) Thanks to the development of observation and modeling, further advanced

scientific findings have been provided by the AR4.

Warming of the climate systemisunequivocal.

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since themid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenicgreenhouse gas concentrations.

Since much more climate models have become available for long-termexperiments, Best Estimate and Likely Range have been newly introducedin the assessment of climate change projections

Recent findings on thepositive feedback effect of carbon cycle are going tocause implications as an additional issue to address climate stability.

Research outcomes from the Earth Simulator (ES) considerably contributedto the AR4. Ongoing new research initiative, KAKUSHIN Program has beentrying to further promote projection studies by the updated ES.

Cooperation has been continuing for adaptation studies in variousdeveloping countries through model outcomes from the updated ES (ES2).

（最終版）Earth Simulator based climate modelling

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