E-UpDates Nov11

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E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support

2

Contents Page

1. Important Rates to Remember ………… 3

2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators ………… 4

3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators ………… 6

4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators ………… 7

5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates ………… 9

6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates ………… 11

7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets ………… 14

8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows ………… 17

9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets ………… 20

10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators ………… 22

11. Global Economy — Stock Indices ………… 23

12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices 24

Special Feature —

RBI's Review of Monetary Policy for Q2 of 2011-12 25

www.ecofin-surge.co.in

Table of Contents


3

2010-11 8.50% Aug-11 4.10%

2009-10 8.00% Aug-10 4.50%

As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10 As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10

Bank rate 6.00% 6.00% CRR 6.00% 6.00%

Repo rate 8.50% 6.00% Base Rate 10.00-10.75% 7.50-8.00%

Reverse repo 7.50% 5.00% CMR 6.90-8.62% 4.75-8.00%

Sep-11 9.72% Oct-11 106.04

Sep-10 8.98% Oct-10 79.32

Spot Price FOB $ per barrel

October

31-Oct-11 48.87 52.0

29-Oct-10 44.54 49.1

RBI Reference rate

*New Series with Base : 2004-05=100.

For Global rates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html

For explanations visit http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html

HSBC Markit Services PMI

GDP IIP*

Inflation (WPI) Oil Price (World Average)

$/Rupee Rate Purchasing Managers Index

HSBC Markit Mnfg. PMI


4

GDP Growth Rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

2011-12 7.7* 7.7*

2010-11 8.8* 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.5

1 Agriculture, Forestry &

Fishing 160,771 2.4 167,091 3.9

2 Mining & Quarrying 26,354 7.4 26,832 1.8

3 Manufacturing 183,488 10.6 196,699 7.2

4 Electricity, Gas & Water

Supply. 23,204 5.5 25,042 7.9

5 Construction93,514 7.7 94,639 1.2

6 Trade, Hotels, Transport

and Communication 299,600 12.1 337,872 12.8

7 Financing, Insurance,

Real Estate & Business

Services. 205,870 9.8 224,574 9.1

8 Community, Social &

Personal Services. 145,485 8.2 153,589 5.6

9 GDP at factor cost

(1 to 8)

10 Private final consumption

expenditure

748,395 9.5 (61.7) 795,683 6.3 (60.5)

11 Government final

consumption expenditure

134,161 6.7 (11.1) 136,935 2.1 (10.4)

12 Gross fixed capital

formation 380,544 11.1 (31.4) 410,533 7.9 (31.2)

13 Changes in stocks 43,788 (3.6) 45,852 (3.5)

14 Valuables 29,240 (2.4) 40,723 (3.1)

15 Exports257,587 9.8 (21.2) 320,247 24.3 (24.3)

16 Less Imports 351,037 15.2 (28.9) 433,824 23.6 (33.0)

17 Discrepancies -30,058 (-2.5) -755 (-0.1)

18 GDP at market price

(10 to 17) 1,212,620 9.1 (100) 1,315,395 8.5 (100)

*Estimates based on the New series of IIP.

1,226,339 7.7 1,138,286 8.8

Growth Indicators

GDP[at Constant(2004-05) prices] Q1

2011-12*

Rs.Crore YoY Growth

(Share in

GDP)

(%)

Rs.CroreQ1

2010-11*

YoY Growth

(Share in

GDP)

(%)


5

18 GDP at market price48,69,317 9.1 5,298,129 8.8

19 Net Indirect Taxes (Less

Subsidies ) 375,574 420,287

9 GDP at factor cost

(18-19) 44,93,743 8.0 4,877,842 8.5

20 Net factor income from

abroad -28,889 -43,083

21 Gross national product

at factor cost 44,64,854 7.9 4,834,759 8.3

(9 + 20)

23 Net national

product/National

Income at factor cost

(Less Depreciation) 39,46,540 7.5 4,259,782 7.9

24 Population (in million)1170 1186

25 Per capita income (Rs.)

(23/24) 33731 6.1 35917 6.5

Aug-11 Aug-10 Aug-11 FY2011-12 * FY2010-11*

Production Index

(Index of Industrial

Production) 166.5 157.7 4.1 5.6 8.7

1. Mining 117.6 121.7 -3.4 0.2 7.7

2. Manufacturing 172.6 165.2 4.5 6.0 9.2

3. Electricity 149.4 136.4 9.5 9.5 4.1

*Apr-Aug. The base year of IIP has been revised by the CSO from 1993-94 to 2004-05.

2010-11

(RE)

Rs.Crore

Change (YoY, %)Index 2004-05 =100

YoY Growth

(%)

2009-10 (QE) Rs.Crore YoY Growth

(%)

IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2004-05=100)

124.5

131.0

125.2

161.3 175.6

176.7

130.8

138.0

149.0

152.9

165.4 166.5

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Mining &Quarrying (141.75)

Manufacturing(755.27)

Electricity (103.16)

General Index(1000.0)


6

Wholesale Price Index

(Base: 2004-05=100)

(Inflation %)

All

Commodities

Primary

ArticlesFood Articles

Non-food

Articles

Crude

PetroleumManufactured

Products

July - 2011 154.0 (9.20) 197.9 192.8 175.8 282.5 137.7

August - 2011 154.9 (9.78) 199.6 193.7 181.1 280.8 138.3

September - 2011 155.8 (9.72) 202.6 196.5 184.4 274.6 138.6

Consumer Price Index

(Inflation %)

All India

General Index

(All Groups

combined)

Base

2010=100

Rural Areas

(All Groups)

Base

2010=100

Urban Areas

(All Groups)

Base

2010=100

Industrial

Workers

Base

2001=100

Rural

Labourers

Base 1986-

87=100

Agricultural

Labourers

Base 1986-

87=100

July - 2011 110.5 (F) 111.7 (F) 108.9 (F) 193 (8.43) 604 (9.03) 604 (9.03)

August - 2011 111.7 (P) 113.1 (P) 109.8 (P) 194 (8.99) 610 (9.71) 610 (9.53)

September - 2011 113.1 (P) 114.6 (P) 111.1 (P) 197(10.06) 614 (9.25) 615 (9.43)

F: Final; P: Provisional

Date Food price Primary articles

6-Aug-11 9.03 11.64

13-Aug-11 9.8 12.40

20-Aug-11 10.05 12.93

27-Aug-11 9.66 13.34

3-Sep-11 9.47 13.04

10-Sep-11 8.84 12.17

17-Sep-11 9.13 11.43

24-Sep-11 9.41 10.84

1-Oct-11 9.32 10.06

8-Oct-11 10.60 11.18

15-Oct-11 11.43 11.75

22-Oct-11 12.21 12.08

Weekly Inflation (WPI)

Inflation

WPI (Base 2004-05=100) New Series

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12


7

COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crores)

March 31 September# October*

2011 2011 2011

M3 6,499,548 6,858,829 6,958,664

% change during the month 2.21 0.35 1.46

% change since March 31 16.49 5.53 7.06

(A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4)1 Currency with the public 914,197 941,258 952,190

% change during the month 0.95 (0.17) 1.16


2 Demand deposits with banks 717,660 637,922 646,007


% change since March 31 0.49 (11.11) (9.98)

3 Time deposits with banks 4,863,979 5,277,306 5,359,307



4 Other deposits with RBI 3,713 2,342 1,160

% change during the month 2.63 (35.14) (50.47)

% change since March 31 (1.90) (36.92) (68.76)

(B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9)5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 1,982,771 2,137,832 2,181,908



i RBI's credit 396,555 356,660 394,737



ii Other banks' credit 1,586,216 1,781,172 1,787,171



6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 4,235,406 4,389,661 4,447,127



i RBI's credit 2,164 1,783 1,878



ii Other banks' credit 4,233,242 4,387,878 4,445,249



7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking

sector1,393,327 1,549,140 1,598,117

% change during the month (0.24) 3.57 3.16


8 Government's currency liabilities to the

public12,724 12,959 13,312

% change during the month 4.71 - 2.72


9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii)1,124,680 1,230,764 1,281,800



i RBI's NNML 368,274 526,650 578,538

% change during the month (0.87) 18.00 9.85


ii Other bank's NNML(Residual) 756,406 704,114 703,262



Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers; (ii) # data are of September 23, 2011;(iii) * data are of October 21, 2011.


8

COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crore)

March September October

2011 2011 2011

Reserve Money : 1,376,881 1,402,145 1,385,212

% change during the month 7.64 2.39 (1.21)


(A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3)

1 Currency in circulation 949,659 976,318 1,012,140



2 Banker's deposits with RBI 423,509 423,286 371,661



3 "Other" deposits with RBI 3,713 2,541 1,411


% change since March 31 -1.90 (31.56) (62.00)

(B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8)4 Net RBI credit to Government 396,555 406,753 391,984


% change since March 31 80.07 2.57 (1.15)

5 RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector

7,324 6,120 5,657



5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) 5,159 3,990 3,779



5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 2,165 2,130 1,878



6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 1,328,553 1,491,104 1,530,763

% change during the month -0.35 4.20 2.66


7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public 12,724 13,312 13,312

% change during the month 4.71 2.72 -


8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 368,274 515,142 556,503

% change during the month -0.87 15.42 8.03


Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers.


9

Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month

3-Oct-11 Mon 49.18 49.47 49.83 50.09 65.71 66.07 66.54 66.89

4-Oct-11 Tue 49.36 49.61 49.95 50.14 65.09 65.40 65.85 66.10

7-Oct-11 Fri 49.15 49.41 49.73 49.98 66.02 66.35 66.76 67.09

10-Oct-11 Mon 48.94 49.20 49.56 49.88 66.53 66.87 67.33 67.77

11-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.57 49.92 50.20 67.11 67.41 67.86 68.23

12-Oct-11 Wed 48.96 49.20 49.57 49.88 67.44 67.74 68.23 68.65

13-Oct-11 Thu 49.14 49.39 49.76 50.08 67.47 67.80 68.27 68.70

14-Oct-11 Fri 49.04 49.30 49.69 50.04 67.63 67.97 68.47 68.95

18-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.62 49.99 50.34 67.56 67.91 68.41 68.87

19-Oct-11 Wed 49.14 49.41 49.83 50.25 68.03 68.39 68.94 69.51

20-Oct-11 Thu 49.71 50.00 50.38 50.78 68.56 68.95 69.45 69.98

21-Oct-11 Fri 50.12 50.42 50.80 51.16 68.97 69.37 69.87 70.36

24-Oct-11 Mon 49.89 50.19 50.60 51.00 68.99 69.38 69.93 70.47

28-Oct-11 Fri 48.85 49.14 49.55 49.98 69.18 69.57 70.12 70.71

31-Oct-11 Mon 48.71 48.96 49.40 49.86 68.20 68.55 69.13 69.76

Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month

3-Oct-11 Mon 76.33 76.75 77.28 77.62 63.98 64.38 64.89 65.32

4-Oct-11 Tue 75.86 76.23 76.73 76.97 64.40 64.75 65.25 65.60

7-Oct-11 Fri 76.25 76.62 77.08 77.43 64.10 64.46 64.93 65.35

10-Oct-11 Mon 76.60 76.98 77.52 77.97 63.82 64.18 64.71 65.22

11-Oct-11 Tue 77.20 77.55 78.06 78.45 64.37 64.69 65.20 65.66

12-Oct-11 Wed 77.17 77.52 78.08 78.52 63.83 64.17 64.72 65.21

13-Oct-11 Thu 77.17 77.54 78.08 78.53 63.85 64.19 64.71 65.23

14-Oct-11 Fri 77.33 77.72 78.28 78.81 63.67 64.04 64.58 65.16

18-Oct-11 Tue 77.64 78.04 78.60 79.09 64.38 64.77 65.31 65.87

19-Oct-11 Wed 77.64 78.06 78.67 79.28 64.00 64.38 64.97 65.62

20-Oct-11 Thu 78.43 78.87 79.42 79.99 64.72 65.12 65.66 66.28

21-Oct-11 Fri 79.48 79.94 80.51 81.03 65.31 65.72 66.27 66.85

24-Oct-11 Mon 79.42 79.88 80.49 81.06 65.55 65.97 66.56 67.19

28-Oct-11 Fri 78.65 79.11 79.72 80.34 64.33 64.72 65.31 65.97

31-Oct-11 Mon 78.00 78.39 79.04 79.71 62.49 62.84 63.45 64.15

Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR)

Average of Buying & Selling

Dollar Euro

Pound Yen


10

Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month

3-Oct-11 Mon 7.18 5.35 3.71 6.87 5.18 3.62

4-Oct-11 Tue 6.25 4.91 3.21 5.96 4.79 3.14

7-Oct-11 Fri 6.41 4.76 3.39 6.17 4.56 3.27

10-Oct-11 Mon 6.43 5.12 3.88 6.21 4.90 3.75

11-Oct-11 Tue 5.74 4.79 3.52 5.40 4.55 3.37

12-Oct-11 Wed 6.04 5.08 3.79 5.47 4.80 3.62

13-Oct-11 Thu 6.28 5.14 3.86 5.94 4.83 3.66

14-Oct-11 Fri 6.55 5.45 4.14 6.11 5.03 3.94

18-Oct-11 Tue 6.90 5.33 4.07 6.49 5.16 3.92

19-Oct-11 Wed 6.93 5.74 4.57 6.54 5.46 4.38

20-Oct-11 Thu 7.36 5.50 4.35 7.04 5.29 4.17

21-Oct-11 Fri 7.42 5.54 4.21 7.09 5.29 4.06

24-Oct-11 Mon 7.46 5.82 4.50 7.09 5.56 4.35

28-Oct-11 Fri 7.36 5.86 4.68 6.98 5.58 4.47

31-Oct-11 Mon 6.47 5.79 4.78 6.34 5.57 4.63

Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month

3-Oct-11 Mon 6.89 5.07 3.42 7.77 5.84 4.23

4-Oct-11 Tue 6.01 4.67 2.95 6.72 5.42 3.76

7-Oct-11 Fri 5.98 4.45 3.12 7.05 5.28 3.95

10-Oct-11 Mon 6.12 4.86 3.61 7.08 5.70 4.44

11-Oct-11 Tue 5.58 4.53 3.28 6.23 5.26 4.06

12-Oct-11 Wed 5.58 4.80 3.53 6.68 5.70 4.39

13-Oct-11 Thu 5.91 4.80 3.56 6.58 5.50 4.35

14-Oct-11 Fri 6.22 5.01 3.85 7.30 5.87 4.74

18-Oct-11 Tue 6.44 5.04 3.77 7.42 5.90 4.67

19-Oct-11 Wed 6.61 5.41 4.26 7.36 6.17 5.13

20-Oct-11 Thu 6.94 5.17 4.02 7.77 5.97 4.90

21-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.26 3.93 7.90 6.01 4.77

24-Oct-11 Mon 7.10 5.50 4.17 7.97 6.31 5.07

28-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.55 4.34 7.62 6.23 5.18

31-Oct-11 Mon 6.09 5.41 4.43 7.03 6.29 5.40

Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR)

Annualised Premia

Dollar Euro

Pound Yen


11

RBI

LAF

Net Injection(+)/

Absorption(-) of Liquidity

(Rs. Crore)

Repo Rates

(Repo/Reverse

Repo)

Over

night

Rates

(%)

Call

Money* CBLO* Mibor USD Libor

1-Oct-11 0.0 8.25/7.25% 8.04 5.98

3-Oct-11 14660.0 8.20 7.85 8.23 0.144

4-Oct-11 -18905.0 8.09 7.49 8.08 0.143

5-Oct-11 -22625.0 7.79 7.24 7.54 0.143

7-Oct-11 8280.0 7.61 7.87 8.07 0.139

8-Oct-11 0.0 8.29 8.30

10-Oct-11 71815.0 8.28 8.19 8.30 0.139

11-Oct-11 67820.0 8.28 8.21 8.30 0.142

12-Oct-11 57795.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141

13-Oct-11 55725.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141

14-Oct-11 54270.0 8.16 8.04 8.30 0.139

15-Oct-11 0.0 7.78 8.14

17-Oct-11 53635.0 8.27 8.13 8.30 0.143

18-Oct-11 41765.0 8.25 8.21 8.28 0.141

19-Oct-11 56360.0 8.23 8.23 8.29 0.141

20-Oct-11 75885.0 8.23 8.24 8.30 0.142

21-Oct-11 79770.0 8.31 8.38 8.30 0.142

22-Oct-11 0.0 8.31 8.26

24-Oct-11 98285.0 8.32 8.23 8.33 0.142

25-Oct-11 109055.0 8.5/7.5% 8.39 8.19 8.45 0.142

28-Oct-11 58445.0 8.34 8.34 8.58 0.142

29-Oct-11 0.0 8.27 8.23

31-Oct-11 52385.0 8.5/7.5% 8.54 8.44 8.58 0.142

*Weighted.Avg.Rates

Money Market Rates & Liquidity

7.40

7.60

7.80

8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

1-O

ct-1

1

3-O

ct-1

1

5-O

ct-1

1

7-O

ct-1

1

9-O

ct-1

1

11

-Oct

-11

13

-Oct

-11

15

-Oct

-11

17

-Oct

-11

19

-Oct

-11

21

-Oct

-11

23

-Oct

-11

25

-Oct

-11

27

-Oct

-11

29

-Oct

-11

31

-Oct

-11

0.135

0.137

0.139

0.141

0.143

0.145Call Money Mibor USD Libor


12

Date 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year

>10 Year &

<=15 Year

>15 Year &

<= 20 Year >20 Year3-Oct-11 8.39 8.51 8.54 8.70 8.72

4-Oct-11 8.33 8.38 8.39 8.33 8.53 8.57 8.72 8.71

5-Oct-11 8.36 8.39 8.50 8.55 8.59 8.74 8.71

7-Oct-11 8.38 8.45 8.35 8.63 8.68 8.80 8.92

10-Oct-11 8.49 8.70 8.74 8.85 8.94

11-Oct-11 8.42 8.44 8.74 8.93 8.92 8.95

12-Oct-11 8.35 8.52 8.82 8.73 8.67 8.89 8.93

13-Oct-11 8.47 8.55 8.49 8.74 8.89 8.87

14-Oct-11 8.44 8.58 8.54 8.78 8.77 8.94 8.95

17-Oct-11 8.45 8.60 8.64 8.82 8.84 8.95 8.95

18-Oct-11 8.73 8.75 8.78 8.93 8.95

19-Oct-11 8.58 8.55 8.75 8.77 8.79 8.93 8.95

20-Oct-11 8.62 8.42 8.67 8.74 8.78 8.81 8.91 8.95

21-Oct-11 8.61 8.39 8.62 8.73 8.82 8.84 8.90 8.96

24-Oct-11 8.60 8.65 8.68 8.82 8.87 8.92 8.97

25-Oct-11 8.64 8.65 8.72 8.73 8.79 8.88 8.91

28-Oct-11 8.58 8.67 8.92 8.85 8.94 8.97 8.94

31-Oct-11 8.59 8.62 8.65 8.89 8.87 8.93 8.97 8.97

Month Average 8.48 8.53 8.53 8.82 8.45 8.75 8.73 8.77 8.88 8.90

Maturity/

Type 6 months 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year

AAAPSU 0.89 1.08 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.63

Bank 0.84 1.05 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.86 0.83 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.68

NBFC 1.08 1.30 1.32 1.27 1.22 1.09 1.10 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 0.99

Corporate 1.14 1.45 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.05 1.00 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.82

AA+

PSU 1.01 1.22 1.08 1.08 1.04 0.99 0.94 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.78

Bank 0.96 1.16 1.06 1.09 1.05 1.01 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.83

NBFC 1.23 1.49 1.54 1.64 1.61 1.58 1.55 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.42 1.39

Corporate 1.29 1.60 1.35 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.29 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.10

AA

PSU 1.15 1.36 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.08 0.95

Bank 1.09 1.31 1.21 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 0.97

NBFC 1.47 1.69 1.69 1.82 1.86 1.89 1.85 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.71 1.57

Corporate 1.49 1.85 1.60 1.58 1.58 1.57 1.54 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.35

Bond Yield Spreads over Gilts - October 2011

Constant Maturity Yields for Government Bonds - October 2011

Debt Market Yields


13

Debt Market Yields

Yields of Benchmark Corporate Bonds (AAA) - October 2011

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Oct

ob

er 2

01

2

Sep

tem

ber

20

13

Mar

ch 2

01

4

Jun

e 2

01

4

July

20

15

Oct

ob

er 2

01

5

Sep

tem

ber

20

16

Sep

tem

ber

20

16

Au

gu

st 2

01

7

Au

gu

st 2

01

8

Au

gu

st 2

01

9

Au

gu

st 2

02

0

July

20

21

Au

gu

st 2

02

1

Au

gu

st 2

02

2

Au

gu

st 2

02

3

Au

gu

st 2

02

4

Au

gu

st 2

02

5

Mar

ch 2

02

6

Sep

tem

ber

20

26

Au

gu

st 2

02

7

Au

gu

st 2

02

8

Au

gu

st 2

02

9

Maturity Year

Wei

gh

ted

Av

era

ge

YT

Ms

Yields of Gsecs Traded in October 2011

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

8.9

9.0

Apri

l 20

12

May

20

12

Apri

l 20

16

Jan

uar

y 2

01

7

July

20

17

Apri

l 20

18

Apri

l 20

21

Aug

ust

20

22

Sep

tem

ber

202

2

Aug

ust

20

27

Sep

tem

ber

202

7

Feb

ruar

y 2

03

2

July

20

40

Maturity Year

Wei

gh

ted

Av

era

ge

YT

Ms


14

BSE Equity Market BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)

Month/Year

No of co.s

listed*

No. of scrips

traded

Turnover

(Rs.cr)

Average

Daily

Turnover

(Rs.cr)

Market

Capitalisation

(Rs.cr)* High Low

Month-

Closing P/E P/B Div Yield

Jul-11 5096 3039 59076.0 2813.1 6614745.5 19131.7 18131.86 18197.2 19.60 3.44 1.43

Aug-11 5086 2991 52760.3 2512.4 6058776.3 18440.07 15765.53 16676.75 18.36 3.34 1.51

Sep-11 5092 2922 53625.9 2553.6 5952377.6 17211.8 15801.01 16453.76 18.35 3.36 1.52

NSE Capital Market Segment S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)

Month/Year

No of co.s

listed*

No. of scrips

traded

Turnover

(Rs.cr)

Average

Daily

Turnover

(Rs.cr)

Market

Capitalisation

(Rs.cr)* High Low

Month-

Closing P/E P/B Div Yield

Jul-11 1606 1600 230003.0 10953.0 6462338.0 5740.40 5453.95 5482.00 20.49 3.47 1.27

Aug-11 1615 1611 235253.0 11203.0 5921684.0 5551.90 4720.00 5001.00 18.29 3.08 1.42

Sep-11 1622 1698 235270.0 11203.0 5820334.0 5169.25 4758.85 4943.25 18.11 2.96 1.51

*End of the Month.

BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades

No. of

contracts

Turnover (Rs.

cr.)

No. of

contracts

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

No. of

contracts

Notional

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

No. of

contracts

Notional

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

No. of

contracts

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

Jul-11 706 19.76 532 15.58 30 0.85 …. … 1268 36.18 1.72

Aug-11 428 10.81 1736 47.02 …. … …. … 2164 57.82 2.75

Sep-11 19303 474.08 7759 241.04 4627 122.25 93 2.21 31782 839.58 39.98

NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment

No. of

contracts

Turnover (Rs.

cr.)

No. of

contracts

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

No. of

contracts

Notional

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

No. of

contracts

Notional

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

No. of

contracts

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)

Jul-11 10048859 265640.93 12260020 349890.69 66268437 1867725.5 2800430 81707.72 91377746 2564964.83 122141.18

Aug-11 14585694 347176.6 13366537 333790.92 86141851 2209523.7 2791679 73258.02 116885761 2963749.16 141130.91

Sep-11 14796435 346826.29 13329926 326289.5 83122036 2085730 3057248 76418 114305645 2835263.82 135012.56

Derivatives Turnover

Stock Options Total Average

Daily

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)Month / Year

Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options

Equity Market Turnover

Average

Daily

Turnover

(Rs. cr.)Month / Year

Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total


15

BSE: BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)

Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield

3-Oct-11 16255.97 16255.97 16056.33 16151.45 17.77 3.25 1.57

4-Oct-11 16081.77 16202.38 15745.43 15864.86 17.45 3.19 1.60

5-Oct-11 15967.72 16044.91 15760.53 15792.41 17.39 3.18 1.60

7-Oct-11 16222.49 16347.48 16148.97 16232.54 17.80 3.26 1.56

10-Oct-11 16270.07 16595.93 16230.77 16557.23 18.18 3.33 1.53

11-Oct-11 16668.15 16774.12 16510.71 16536.47 18.17 3.33 1.53

12-Oct-11 16660.43 16987.06 16608.57 16958.39 18.52 3.39 1.50

13-Oct-11 17048.00 17084.07 16854.03 16883.92 18.39 3.37 1.51

14-Oct-11 16836.83 17112.45 16828.45 17082.69 18.59 3.41 1.50

17-Oct-11 17176.05 17188.55 16928.38 17025.09 18.40 3.39 1.50

18-Oct-11 16817.38 16824.76 16669.04 16748.29 17.91 3.33 1.53

19-Oct-11 16883.36 17106.99 16874.34 17085.34 18.28 3.40 1.50

20-Oct-11 16911.85 16962.06 16744.99 16936.89 18.11 3.38 1.51

21-Oct-11 16975.79 17032.32 16752.21 16785.64 17.97 3.35 1.52

24-Oct-11 17011.06 17104.88 16898.60 16939.28 18.13 3.39 1.50

25-Oct-11 17012.79 17322.13 16900.26 17254.86 18.43 3.44 1.48

26-Oct-11 17336.34 17350.49 17273.52 17288.83 18.48 3.45 1.48

28-Oct-11 17671.86 17908.13 17671.86 17804.80 18.96 3.55 1.44

31-Oct-11 17806.21 17813.11 17668.27 17705.01 18.82 3.52 1.45

Index Movements

15650

15900

16150

16400

16650

16900

17150

17400

17650

3-O

ct-1

1

4-O

ct-1

1

5-O

ct-1

1

7-O

ct-1

1

10-O

ct-1

1

11-O

ct-1

1

12-O

ct-1

1

13-O

ct-1

1

14-O

ct-1

1

17-O

ct-1

1

18-O

ct-1

1

19-O

ct-1

1

20-O

ct-1

1

21-O

ct-1

1

24-O

ct-1

1

25-O

ct-1

1

26-O

ct-1

1

28-O

ct-1

1

31-O

ct-1

1

470047504800485049004950500050505100515052005250530053505400

BSE NSE


16

NSE: S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)

Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield

3-Oct-11 4874.40 4879.15 4823.90 4849.50 17.51 2.86 1.56

4-Oct-11 4823.50 4869.75 4728.30 4772.15 17.23 2.82 1.59

5-Oct-11 4791.30 4827.80 4741.00 4751.30 17.16 2.81 1.60

7-Oct-11 4883.65 4922.60 4861.20 4888.05 17.65 2.89 1.55

10-Oct-11 4886.85 4991.15 4882.05 4979.60 18.03 2.99 1.51

11-Oct-11 5019.90 5045.10 4964.00 4974.35 18.01 2.98 1.52

12-Oct-11 5011.20 5109.80 4997.65 5099.40 18.43 3.06 1.48

13-Oct-11 5130.80 5136.95 5067.65 5077.85 18.35 3.04 1.49

14-Oct-11 5057.35 5141.40 5056.60 5132.30 18.55 3.08 1.47

17-Oct-11 5156.20 5160.20 5084.50 5118.25 18.50 3.07 1.47

18-Oct-11 5049.45 5057.50 5011.05 5037.50 18.00 3.02 1.50

19-Oct-11 5080.45 5148.05 5075.30 5139.15 18.36 3.08 1.47

20-Oct-11 5086.55 5099.00 5033.95 5091.90 18.14 3.05 1.48

21-Oct-11 5106.60 5120.75 5037.95 5049.95 17.99 3.03 1.49

24-Oct-11 5114.70 5145.65 5084.75 5098.35 18.10 3.06 1.48

25-Oct-11 5137.90 5211.00 5085.55 5191.60 18.39 3.11 1.45

26-Oct-11 5214.95 5219.25 5196.15 5201.80 18.43 3.12 1.45

28-Oct-11 5341.90 5399.70 5322.80 5360.70 19.03 3.21 1.41

31-Oct-11 5358.90 5360.25 5314.60 5326.60 18.90 3.19 1.42

FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures

(Expiry 24-Nov-11)

Open High Low Close Settlement Price No. of contracts Change in OI

3-Oct-11 4869.9 4890.0 4827.7 4871.4 4871.4 8823.0 91700.0

4-Oct-11 4845.0 4897.7 4740.0 4788.5 4788.5 12639.0 1,27,000

5-Oct-11 4802.8 4856.0 4761.0 4782.1 4782.1 11128.0 95450.0

7-Oct-11 4890.3 4951.0 4886.0 4909.9 4909.9 12600.0 -6350.0

10-Oct-11 4914.0 5018.0 4902.5 5007.5 5007.5 12002.0 1,16,100

11-Oct-11 5050.6 5068.0 4985.1 4997.8 4997.8 12909.0 1,75,550

12-Oct-11 5015.6 5135.0 5015.6 5127.5 5127.5 16697.0 2,84,850

13-Oct-11 5150.0 5154.0 5082.1 5089.4 5089.4 16266.0 2,65,350

14-Oct-11 5081.0 5169.0 5077.5 5160.6 5160.6 17295.0 3,02,950

17-Oct-11 5184.0 5184.0 5100.0 5132.5 5132.5 21213.0 1,72,650

18-Oct-11 5075.0 5107.0 5030.1 5060.6 5060.6 48837.0 12,89,600

19-Oct-11 5084.9 5172.9 5084.9 5165.7 5165.7 82834.0 24,39,900

20-Oct-11 5110.2 5126.9 5051.0 5119.7 5119.7 1,03,748 18,81,200

21-Oct-11 5119.0 5149.8 5058.5 5074.1 5074.1 1,75,607 46,55,400

24-Oct-11 5135.6 5176.4 5115.2 5128.7 5128.7 2,01,013 43,56,300

25-Oct-11 5151.5 5249.8 5112.1 5229.2 5229.2 4,15,096 88,91,850

26-Oct-11 5241.2 5257.2 5227.0 5232.1 5232.1 82639.0 6,09,700

28-Oct-11 5376.6 5402.8 5341.3 5385.5 5385.5 3,61,703 10,00,950

31-Oct-11 5369.7 5377.9 5333.7 5347.1 5347.1 2,67,544 2,59,700


17

Mutual Funds Investment Trends

Equity

Gross Purchases

(Rs Crores)

Gross Sales

(Rs Crores)

Net Investment

(Rs Crores)

3-Oct-11 387.1 620.1 -233.0

4-Oct-11 558.8 654.0 -95.2

5-Oct-11 528.1 424.4 103.7

7-Oct-11 739.3 555.2 184.1

10-Oct-11 694.2 500.4 193.8

11-Oct-11 777.7 433.2 344.5

12-Oct-11 680.2 500.7 179.5

13-Oct-11 429.9 511.9 -82.0

14-Oct-11 465.9 483.6 -17.8

17-Oct-11 292.8 522.4 -229.6

18-Oct-11 451.0 526.1 -75.1

19-Oct-11 423.4 432.9 -9.4

20-Oct-11 302.6 489.5 -186.9

21-Oct-11 340.2 394.6 -54.4

24-Oct-11 323.0 412.9 -89.9

25-Oct-11 772.5 794.5 -22.0

26-Oct-11 39.2 4.2 35.0

28-Oct-11 688.3 845.3 -157.0

31-Oct-11 413.6 563.6 -150.0

Total for Month 9307.8 9669.5 -361.7

Debt

Gross Purchases

(Rs Crores)

Gross Sales

(Rs Crores)

Net Investment

(Rs Crores)

3-Oct-11 8440.6 3803.1 4637.5

4-Oct-11 5203.1 3350.7 1852.3

5-Oct-11 5556.4 4141.4 1415.0

7-Oct-11 4634.4 1981.7 2652.7

10-Oct-11 2771.1 927.1 1844.0

11-Oct-11 2063.1 2157.8 -94.8

12-Oct-11 2767.2 1672.2 1095.0

13-Oct-11 2479.8 1969.5 510.3

14-Oct-11 1607.9 1599.6 8.3

17-Oct-11 2093.5 1539.6 553.9

18-Oct-11 2345.1 2330.5 14.7

19-Oct-11 2274.7 3054.0 -779.3

20-Oct-11 2360.6 1467.6 893.0

21-Oct-11 2464.8 2158.0 306.8

24-Oct-11 1879.3 2813.3 -934.0

25-Oct-11 3792.6 2619.5 1173.1

26-Oct-11 0.0 53.5 -53.5

28-Oct-11 1714.1 1649.2 64.9

31-Oct-11 3563.4 3859.7 -296.3

Total for Month 58011.7 43148.0 14863.6

Capital Market Flows


18

Mutual Funds Asset Position

Mutual Funds Asset Position

April-September 2011 Private Sector

Mutual Funds

Public Sector Mutual

Funds

(of which)

UTI Total

529,998.7 111,938.3 55,732.2 641,937.0

82.56% 17.44% 8.68% 100.00%

in Rs. Crore

Mobilisation of Funds

Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds

Cumulative Position of Net Assets as

on Sep, 30, 2011 (%)

55,279.52,828.6

2,865,442.8 607,350.4

52,450.9

287,785.8 3,472,793.2

4,208.4

ECB Jul-11 Aug-11

Automatic Route 3,677,174,928 2,683,013,998

Approval Route 492,247,312 1,025,219,776

Total ECB (& FCCB) 4,169,422,241 3,708,233,774

Value in USD

FII Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets

3-Oct-11 1466.1 723.9 742.2 151.7

4-Oct-11 562.1 1913.3 -1351.2 -273.4

5-Oct-111154.5 1504.5 -350.0 -71.1

7-Oct-11 1427.5 1565.4 -137.9 -28.0

10-Oct-11 888.0 638.2 249.9 50.9

11-Oct-11 1161.8 507.2 654.6 133.4

12-Oct-11 1646.5 379.0 1267.6 258.5

13-Oct-11 1184.3 963.5 220.7 44.8

14-Oct-11 1076.4 665.1 411.3 83.9

17-Oct-11 647.9 281.4 366.5 74.7

18-Oct-11 246.6 292.9 -46.3 -9.5

19-Oct-11 486.7 1153.1 -666.4 -135.6

20-Oct-11 1472.3 1212.7 259.6 52.8

21-Oct-11 1390.6 533.2 857.4 172.5

24-Oct-11 1137.4 602.9 534.5 106.8

25-Oct-11 719.4 1854.3 -1134.8 -227.5

28-Oct-11 476.8 657.2 -180.4 -36.3

31-Oct-11 359.5 655.4 -295.9 -60.6

Total for Month 17504.4 16103.2 1401.4 287.8

Total for 2011 218231.0 198873.4 19357.7 4290.3

Debt Gross Purchases

(Rs Crores)

Gross Sales

(Rs Crores)

Net Investment

US$ million

Net Investment

(Rs Crores)


19

3-Oct-11 6193.8 6504.1 -310.3 -63.4

4-Oct-11 1639.8 2422.2 -782.4 -158.3

5-Oct-11 2080.2 3046.4 -966.1 -196.3

7-Oct-112026.8 2996.1 -969.3 -197.0

10-Oct-11 3563.9 3072.7 491.3 100.0

11-Oct-11 2471.0 2189.8 281.2 57.3

12-Oct-11 2833.1 2650.0 183.1 37.3

13-Oct-11 2674.9 2025.8 649.2 131.8

14-Oct-11 2539.1 1873.3 665.8 135.8

17-Oct-11 1547.0 1630.3 -83.3 -17.0

18-Oct-11 1889.9 1492.4 397.5 81.3

19-Oct-11 1808.3 2057.5 -249.2 -50.7

20-Oct-11 1776.2 1758.8 17.3 3.5

21-Oct-11 1469.3 1900.2 -430.9 -86.7

24-Oct-11 1376.3 1554.5 -178.2 -35.6

25-Oct-11 1760.1 1613.4 146.8 29.4

28-Oct-11 3688.8 3234.4 454.5 91.5

31-Oct-11 5567.7 3207.3 2360.4 483.5

Total for Month 46906.2 45229.2 1677.4 346.5

Total for 2011 527367.3 525981.6 1385.7 397.8

No of Registered FII's :1750 as on 31.10.2011.

Equity Gross Purchases

(Rs Crores)

Gross Sales

(Rs Crores)

Net Investment

US$ million

Net Investment

(Rs Crores)

2360.4

-1000.0

-700.0

-400.0

-100.0

200.0

500.0

800.0

Net Flows (R

s.Cr.)

3-O

ct-

11

10-O

ct-

11

17-O

ct-

11

24-O

ct-

11

31-O

ct-

11

FII Equity MF Equity

Foreign Investment Aug-11 Apr.- Aug. 2011-12 Apr.- Aug. 2010-11

Direct Investment 2,830 20,973 11,390

Portfolio Investment -1,797 2,493 13,327

Total 1,033 23,466 24,717

in USD Million


20

Value of Trade on Commodity Exchanges (in Rs.Crore)

During MCX NCDEX All Exchanges YoY % Growth

1st - 15th Oct ’11 567,972.64 63,564.37 657,000.22 32.01

16th - 30th Sep ’11 908,638.47 81,178.13 1,021,739.02 122.69

1st - 15th Sep ’11 859,577.39 67,063.65 953,370.10 118.26

Commodity Futures & Spot Markets

Date Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot

1-Oct-11 2728.0 1128.0 1164.9 587.4 633.1 3963.0 3875.0 51181.0 51100.0

3-Oct-11 2746.0 2694.0 1131.4 1154.6 591.4 630.0 3869.0 3875.0 52044.0 52000.0

4-Oct-11 2729.0 2692.0 1123.8 1150.4 581.5 629.7 3825.0 3836.0 50223.0 51338.0

5-Oct-11 2720.0 2692.0 1116.6 1145.7 578.0 628.1 3943.0 3725.0 51226.0 49046.0

6-Oct-11 2720.0 1116.6 578.0 4065.0 3920.0 53237.0 52993.0

7-Oct-11 2738.0 2690.0 1119.6 1150.0 581.4 627.6 4062.0 4063.0 51901.0 51958.0

8-Oct-11 2746.0 2688.0 1124.4 1146.7 579.7 625.9 4095.0 4077.0 52297.0 53049.0

10-Oct-11 2747.0 2700.0 1124.4 1143.8 588.3 623.4 4211.0 4077.0 53028.0 52543.0

11-Oct-11 2758.0 2721.0 1123.4 1154.6 589.4 621.2 4264.0 4191.0 53269.0 53545.0

12-Oct-11 2779.0 2723.0 1130.4 1153.0 599.9 624.8 4230.0 4208.0 54162.0 52701.0

13-Oct-11 2785.0 2743.0 1128.4 1150.9 594.7 623.4 4204.0 4214.0 52914.0 52458.0

14-Oct-11 2760.0 2754.0 1122.0 1152.8 604.9 627.5 4281.0 4129.0 53292.0 53371.0

15-Oct-11 2770.0 1117.2 1152.5 608.9 632.8 4299.0 4259.0 53405.0 52873.0

17-Oct-11 2804.0 2757.0 1109.4 1155.0 609.2 639.5 4279.0 4259.0 52769.0 51764.0

18-Oct-11 2779.0 2754.0 1106.4 1152.5 606.2 638.4 4363.0 4223.0 53157.0 52497.0

19-Oct-11 2774.0 2754.0 1093.6 1152.5 613.6 640.5 4357.0 4341.0 52228.0 51504.0

20-Oct-11 2775.0 2756.0 1088.8 1149.6 609.7 637.9 4291.0 4235.0 51701.0 51939.0

21-Oct-11 2787.0 1091.2 1143.4 614.5 638.2 4371.0 4279.0 52784.0 52518.0

22-Oct-11 2777.0 2775.0 1094.6 1143.2 614.0 637.5 4381.0 4376.0 53034.0 52809.0

24-Oct-11 2766.0 2779.0 1091.8 1141.3 615.8 638.3 4546.0 4376.0 53077.0 53018.0

25-Oct-11 2807.0 2785.0 1113.4 1143.6 627.8 640.7 4647.0 4552.0 55064.0 53030.0

26-Oct-11 2785.0 1112.4 625.5 4574.0 4627.0 55711.0

27-Oct-11 2788.0 2785.0 1109.2 630.1 4595.0 4479.0 57859.0 53030.0

28-Oct-11 2781.0 2786.0 1082.4 1157.5 621.9 4535.0 4666.0 57395.0 53030.0

29-Oct-11 2770.0 1092.8 1163.8 623.8 640.6 4541.0 4556.0 57373.0 53030.0

31-Oct-11 2782.0 2759.0 1092.6 1181.3 618.2 634.9 4516.0 4556.0 56427.0 56003.0

*Multi Commodity Exchange of India. ** National Commodity & Derivatives Exchng Ltd. Futures: Nov contract; Silver Dec contract.

Commodity Futures & Spot Prices

(100 Kgs) (100 Kgs) (10 Kgs) (1 Bbl.) (1 Kg.)

Sugar* Wheat** Refined Soya Oil** Energy: Crude Oil* Bullion: Silver*


21

Futures Index : MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL Spot Index : MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL

1-Oct 3360.29 2944.47 4445.76 3367.16 3149.98 4443.47

3-Oct 3356.76 2944.36 4499.31 3332.45 3087.26 4449.78

4-Oct 3303.37 2929.12 4396.04 3310.44 3107.53 4453.39

5-Oct 3347.53 2900.63 4452.38 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15

6-Oct 3409.81 2898.37 4541.06 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15

7-Oct 3390.29 2901.23 4496.28 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70

8-Oct 3400.96 2873.93 4517.07 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70

10-Oct 3457.37 2888.37 4583.83 3430.34 3092.70 4517.46

11-Oct 3462.31 2886.18 4563.36 3437.47 3099.98 4531.99

12-Oct 3470.21 2856.39 4624.99 3478.69 3128.39 4561.27

13-Oct 3449.70 2895.40 4567.24 3443.81 3120.19 4543.51

14-Oct 3486.42 2890.75 4606.54 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37

15-Oct 3495.18 2894.91 4615.50 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37

17-Oct 3472.52 2892.24 4573.40 3487.33 3147.63 4560.93

18-Oct 3482.94 2868.16 4568.58 3459.15 3135.37 4494.26

19-Oct 3451.54 2867.23 4487.61 3452.41 2975.68 4499.74

20-Oct 3415.79 2890.98 4418.89 3431.86 3143.82 4421.91

21-Oct 3478.73 2896.12 4530.77 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01

22-Oct 3490.41 2887.11 4554.50 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01

24-Oct 3556.22 2875.03 4630.82 3517.35 3163.84 4539.12

25-Oct 3606.66 2894.77 4683.81 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98

26-Oct 3612.90 2909.23 4750.38 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98

27-Oct 3667.13 2933.73 4852.05 3612.4 3190.69 4614.70

28-Oct 3642.37 2927.95 4817.23 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65

29-Oct 3653.86 2986.02 4817.13 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65

31-Oct 3632.17 2995.59 4768.86 3631.53 3231.11 4726.23

Multi Commodity Exchange of India: Index Close

Commodity Futures & Spot Indices

2750

2950

3150

3350

3550

3750

3950

4150

4350

4550

4750

4950

1-O

ct

3-O

ct

5-O

ct

7-O

ct

9-O

ct

11

-Oct

13

-Oct

15

-Oct

17

-Oct

19

-Oct

21

-Oct

23

-Oct

25

-Oct

27

-Oct

29

-Oct

31

-Oct

MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL


22

Stock

Market

Country

Risk

Indicator/

Country

(per US$)

USA Q3/ 1.6 M09/ 3.2 M09/ 6.9 M09/ 3.9 0.10 2.00 M08/ -711.1 -1.6 AA+/ -ve

China Q3/ 9.1 M09/ 13.8 M09/ 6.1 5.70 3.79 6.36 M09/ 172.9 3201.7 -7.5 AA-/Stable

Hong Kong 5.1 Q2/ 2.0 M09/ 5.8 0.29 1.29 7.77 M09/ -51.3 277.7 -14.3 AAA/Stable

Singapore 5.9 M09 / 12.8 M09/ 5.5 0.43 1.59 1.27 M09/ 46.2 233.6 -10.5 AAA/Stable

Netherlands 1.6 M08/ 1.5 M08/ 8.9 M09/ 2.7 1.58 2.25 0.72 M08/ 59.7 -13.5 AAA/Stable

UK Q3/ 0.5 M08/ -1.0 M09/ 6.3 M09/ 5.2 1.00 2.27 0.63 M08/-158.3 -5.2 AAA/Stable

Germany 2.8 M08/ 7.9 M09/ 5.7 M10/ 2.9 1.58 1.82 0.72 M08/ 197.8 -11.2 AAA/Stable

Belgium 2.3 M07/ 4.0 M08/ 8.0 M10/ 3.6 1.58 4.36 0.72 M08/ 13.1 -17.4 AA+/ -ve

Indonesia 6.5 M08/ 3.9 M10/ 4.4 9.55 3.99 8940.00 M08/ 31.1 110.7 2.4 BB+/+ve

Japan -1.1 M09/ -4.0 M09/ 2.6 M09/ 0.0 0.15 0.99 78.0 M08/ 20.6 -12.2 AA-/ -ve

France 1.7 M08/ 4.4 M08/ 6.3 M09/ 2.2 1.58 3.07 0.72 M08/ -93.1 -15.9 AAA/Stable

Italy 0.8 M08/ 4.7 M08/ 4.5 M10/ 3.4 1.58 6.39 0.72 M08/ -49.3 -22.1 A/ -ve

South Korea Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 6.8 M10/ 3.9 3.57 3.81 1122.00 M10/ 33.2 303.2 -6.4 A/Stable

South Africa 3.0 M08/ 5.6 M09/ 5.7 5.58 7.86 7.97 M09/ 0.4 43.2 -16.8 BBB+/Stable

Brazil 3.1 M08/ 1.8 M09/ 7.3 11.40 11.47 1.75 M10/ 31.1 348.0 -21.3 BBB-/ +ve

Malaysia 4.0 M08/ 3.0 M09/ 3.4 3.25 2.80 3.13 M08/ 36.7 129.1 -4.7 A-/Stable

Thailand 2.6 M08/ 7.0 M10/ 4.2 3.55 3.40 30.8 M09/ 12.5 172.1 -8.5 BBB+/Stable

Turkey 8.8 M08/ 3.8 M10/ 7.7 10.60 9.60 1.77 M08/ -100.9 87.5 -26.7 BB/ +ve

Spain 0.7 M08/ 0.6 M08/ 7.1 M10/ 3.0 1.58 5.45 0.72 M08/ -62.7 -11.6 AA-/-ve

Taiwan Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 1.6 M09/ 1.4 1.15 1.38 30.1 M09/ 8.0 389.2 -18.0 AA-/Stable

Pakistan FY2011/2.

4

M08/ 6.8 M09/ 10.5 11.6 13.00 86.1 M09/ -16.5 15.7 -2.9 B-/Stable

Euro area 1.6 M08/ 5.3 M08/ 5.9 M10/ 3.0 1.58 1.78 0.72 M08/ -33.0 -14.5

India 7.7 M08/ 4.1 M09/ 10.1 8.65 8.97 49.2 M08/ -108.8 280.2 -22.6 BBB-/Stable

Note: Countries have been chosen according to their ranking by share of India's exports in 2010-11. A few countries have been omitted due to insufficient data.

GDP is for Q2 of 2011 unless otherwise mentioned.Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end-Sep 2011. Interest & Exchange rates as on 2nd November 2011.

*% change of the major index in US$ terms, over 31st Dec 2010, as of 2nd November 2011. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P as of 21st Oct 2011.

For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html

Global Economic Indicators

$ bn.

PPI

External Sector

Short-term

rate

Interest rates

GDP

(% change on year ago) (% change on year ago) (%)

CPIIIP

Long- term

Rate

Exchange

Rate Trade Balance FX Reserves

Share Price

Growth*

Sovereign

Rating**

Economic & Financial Market Indicators for India’s Major Trading Partners

Growth Inflation

World Output, Inflation & Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Trade

GDP Inflation Trade


23

BSE Dollex-

30 (India) DJI (US)

S&P

500(US)

FTSE

100(UK)

NIKKEI

225 (Japan)

HSI

(HongKong)

STI

(Singapore)

IPC

(Mexico)

BOVESPA

(Brazil)

3-Oct-11 2,692.71 10,655.30 1,099.23 5,075.50 8,545.48 16,822.15 2,621.40 33,133.88 50,792.00

4-Oct-11 2,641.19 10,808.71 1,123.95 4,944.40 8,456.12 16,250.27 2,531.02 32,966.23 50,686.00

5-Oct-11 2,620.36 10,939.95 1,144.03 5,102.20 8,382.98 2,528.71 33,000.29 51,014.00

6-Oct-11 11,123.33 1,164.97 5,291.30 8,522.02 17,172.28 2,603.12 33,279.72 52,290.00

7-Oct-11 2,709.54 11,103.12 1,155.46 5,303.40 8,605.62 17,707.01 2,640.30 33,005.09 51,244.00

10-Oct-11 2,775.88 11,433.18 1,194.89 5,399.00 17,711.06 2,668.30 33,547.24 53,273.00

11-Oct-11 2,756.07 11,416.30 1,195.54 5,395.70 8,773.68 18,141.59 2,693.05 33,681.80 53,838.00

12-Oct-11 2,839.07 11,518.85 1,207.25 5,441.80 8,738.90 18,329.46 2,737.75 34,470.36

13-Oct-11 2,818.27 11,478.13 1,203.66 5,403.40 8,823.25 18,757.81 2,733.97 34,584.75 54,601.00

14-Oct-11 2,858.13 11,644.49 1,224.58 5,466.40 8,747.96 18,501.79 2,744.17 34,848.42 55,030.00

17-Oct-11 2,864.70 11,397.00 1,200.86 5,436.70 8,879.60 18,873.99 2,778.97 34,125.70 53,911.00

18-Oct-11 2,788.40 11,577.05 1,225.38 5,410.40 8,741.91 18,076.46 2,724.69 35,011.71 55,032.00

19-Oct-11 2,854.51 11,504.62 1,209.88 5,450.50 8,772.54 18,309.22 2,720.21 34,523.27 54,966.00

20-Oct-11 2,805.44 11,541.78 1,215.39 5,384.70 8,682.15 17,983.10 2,694.01 34,395.50 54,010.00

21-Oct-11 2,755.10 11,808.79 1,238.25 5,488.60 8,678.89 18,025.72 2,712.41 35,020.74 55,255.00

24-Oct-11 2,786.44 11,913.62 1,254.19 5,548.10 8,843.98 18,771.82 2,760.95 35,265.56 56,892.00

25-Oct-11 2,853.79 11,706.62 1,229.05 5,525.50 8,762.31 18,968.20 2,769.94 35,290.15 56,286.00

26-Oct-11 2,866.34 11,869.04 1,242.00 5,553.20 8,748.47 19,066.54 2,769.94 35,818.58 57,144.00

27-Oct-11 12,208.55 1,284.59 5,713.80 8,926.54 19,688.70 2,847.57 36,727.21 59,270.00

28-Oct-11 2,996.05 12,231.11 1,285.09 5,702.20 9,050.47 20,019.24 2,905.72 36,708.64 59,513.00

31-Oct-11 2,983.54 11,955.01 1,253.30 5,544.20 8,988.39 19,864.87 2,855.77 36,159.99 58,338.00

Closing Values

International Stock Index Movements vs BSE Sensex ( Oct-2011, with 3rd Oct=100)

Selected Indian & International Stock Indices

Global Stock Indices

DJI (US) S&P 500 (US) FTSE 100(UK) NIKKEI 225 (Japan)

HSI (HongKong) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil)STI (Singapore)


24

Units Descriptor Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11

Index Number Fuel and Non-Fuel 148.36 150.19 159.38 190.31 188.61 182.89

Index Number Non-Fuel 160.34 164.26 173.13 191.51 185.58 171.89

Index Number Food 151.36 156.14 163.18 181.74 175.30 165.48

Index Number Agricultural Raw Materials 122.78 125.67 133.23 151.30 150.20 141.42

Index Number Industrial Inputs 166.47 170.12 181.45 198.64 193.11 175.95

Index Number Metals 198.02 202.24 216.28 232.83 224.10 200.90

Index Number Energy 141.35 141.96 151.34 189.60 190.38 189.32

Index Number Crude Oil 142.57 143.08 153.57 189.50 190.27 188.44

US Dollars per Barrel Crude Oil, Brent 76.69 77.79 82.92 110.08 110.88 109.47

" Crude Oil Dubai Fateh 74.35 75.29 80.34 104.96 106.00 103.88

" Crude Oil WTI 76.60 75.26 81.90 86.33 85.62 86.41

USD per '000 Cubic Meters Natural Gas, H H, Louisiana 155.32 140.21 123.62 146.13 140.04 128.30

US Dollars per Metric Ton Coal, Australian thermal 96.19 101.66 104.41 127.79 131.30 127.49

US Dollars per Metric Ton Aluminum 2110.44 2171.24 2342.18 2380.99 2293.46 2180.65

" Copper 7302.67 7729.59 8289.76 8998.00 8300.14 7394.19

" Zinc 2047.48 2150.94 2373.56 2199.26 2075.22 1871.42

US Cents per Metric Ton Iron Ore 145.34 140.63 148.48 177.45 177.23 150.43

US cents per Pound Rubber 150.42 160.24 178.02 212.11 206.45 184.21

US cents per Pound Cotton 90.35 104.73 126.55 114.10 116.65 110.61

US Dollars per Metric Ton Palm oil 865.23 884.89 935.22 1047.51 995.18 914.44

US Dollars per Metric Ton Sunflower Oil 1140.05 1195.18 1304.14 1666.04 1672.77 1565.19

US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybean Oil 895.28 929.65 1034.85 1225.21 1218.86 1126.77

US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybeans 379.46 390.23 427.18 501.43 490.91 446.02

US cents per Pound Sugar, European 26.04 25.90 26.37 27.23 26.25 26.21

" Sugar, Free Market 18.60 22.67 26.94 28.88 26.64 26.30

" Sugar, U.S. 31.00 35.22 34.74 39.61 39.28 38.19

US cents per Kg. Tea 315.09 337.18 339.86 358.17 362.27 357.14

US cents per Pound Coffee, Arabicas 212.80 222.10 215.84 273.55 275.58 248.49

US Dollars per Metric Ton Rice, Bangkok 486.86 519.95 533.13 577.30 615.55 602.00

US Dollars per Metric Ton Wheat, Mexico 246.25 271.69 270.23 327.09 315.92 289.01

*New series with Base 2005=100

Primary Commodity Indices*/ Prices

Global Commodity Prices

Observed & Projected Price Movements, IMF WEO Database

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices

Industrial Inputs Price Index includes

Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals

Agricultural Raw Materials Index

includes Timber, Cotton, Wool,

Rubber, and Hides PriceCereals Price Index Wheat, Corn, Rice

& Barley

Crude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent,

West Texas Intermediate, and the

Dubai FatehMetals Price Index, Copper,

Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc,

Lead, and Uranium Price Indices


25

RBI Adjusts Stance to Reflect Deepening of the Global crisis The RBI formulated its second quarter review of the Annual Monetary Policy for the year 2011-12 against a backdrop of decelerating domestic demand and growth, led by global economic sentiments. A slew of regulatory and developmental policy measures have been announced; these include new products to widen and deepen the financial markets and measures to increase financial inclusion and strengthen the banking system. The most important measure however, was the deregulation of the Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate, which so far remained the so called last bastion of interest rate regulation in India. Though this could lead to both intra- and inter-bank deposit migration in the short-term, it is expected that the move will lead to efficiency in banks’ credit-deposit management and would benefit a large number of small savers in the country. As inflation expectations are likely to be controlled due to previous policy measures as well as the slowdown in both global and domestic growth and demand, RBI has now shifted its stance from hawkish to neutral. This has provided significant breathing space for domestic financial markets and corporates. Going forward, the developments—related to the sovereign debt crises across the globe, in the global financial markets and the actual trajectory of both global and domestic commodity prices—would determine necessary changes in the policy stance. The highlights of the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2011-12 is presented here:

Global Economic Conditions

Global growth prospects for appear to be declining; there have been significant downward revisions in growth projections. Business and consumer confidence have dampened on the back of euro area sovereign debt crisis. Private sector balance sheets are at risk and significant weakness in the banking sector has re-emerged. In its World Economic Outlook of September 2011, the IMF has also significantly lowered its global growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 and 0.5 percentage points for 2012.

Global commodity prices have softened but have stayed elevated. The current Brent crude oil price is still over 25 per cent higher than its average for 2010-11. The IMF has revised upwards its consumer price inflation forecast for emerging and developing economies. According to the IMF (WEO, September 2011), consumer price inflation is likely to increase from 1.6 per cent in 2010 to 2.6 per cent in 2011 in advanced economies, and from 6.1 per cent to 7.5 per cent in emerging and developing economies.

Indian Economy—Trends and Outlook

Growth — Growth in 2011-12 is likely to moderate to below trend. Agriculture prospects remain encouraging; however, moderation is visible in industrial activity and some services. A major downside risk to growth emanates from the global macroeconomic environment. A comparative study of business expectations surveys, conducted by different agencies, indicates stiff moderation in business climate. Both global and domestic factors seem to have weakened the perception about the performance of the economy. The CII and FICCI business confidence indices have shown significant decline over the previous quarter and year too. The 55th round of the Industrial Outlook Survey of the RBI, showed further decline in Business Expectation Index: The demand conditions of the Indian manufacturing sector continued to moderate as net responses on production, order books and exports declined. The baseline projection of GDP growth for 2011-12 is revised downwards to 7.6 per cent

Inflation—Inflationary pressures are strong and persistent due to structural rigidities, continuing strong demand and the adaptive nature of inflation expectations. Domestic price pressures still remain significant and broad-based. Food inflation is likely to stay elevated due to demand-supply mismatches in non-cereals and large MSP revisions. An increase in administered petroleum prices and electricity prices could lead to further rise in inflation. The latest round of Inflation Expectation Survey of Households exhibits marginal increase in both perceived and expected inflation till the next quarter. The baseline projection for WPI inflation for March 2012 is kept unchanged at 7 per cent. Elevated inflationary pressures are expected to ease from December 2011, though uncertainties about sudden adverse developments remain.

Aggregate demand — Investment demand is softening as a result of combination of factors including monetary tightening, hindrances to project execution, deteriorating business confidence and slowing global economy. Planned corporate fixed investment in new projects declined significantly since the second half of 2010-11 consequently, the pipeline of investment is likely to shrink, putting growth in 2012-13 at risk. Private consumption is also starting to soften in parts, but it remains robust overall as is evident from corporate sales performance. Sales growth continues to be healthy, but profits are under pressure; based on an analysis of a sample of 2,426 non-financial companies, margins of corporates in Q1 of 2011-12 moderated across sectors compared with their levels in Q4 of 2010-11, while a classification of companies into the use-based segments of the IIP indicated that the intermediate goods segment registered the maximum decline in margins, reflecting the impact of commodity prices.. The additional Government borrowing program can potentially crowd out more productive private sector investment. If the fiscal deficit is higher than the budgeted level it will have additional implications for both growth and inflation.


26

External Sector —The Current Account Deficit (CAD) widened in Q1 of 2011-12, despite a surge in exports and higher net invisibles receipts. Going forward, exports could decelerate as global growth slows down. Invisible earnings may also decelerate as slow down in US and euro area could impact software exports. Sharp decline in FII flows in Q2 of 2011-12 has been largely offset by strong FDI flows. However, capital flows are entering an uncertain phase with increased financial stress and worsening global growth prospects. External sector outlook, although stable, warrants close monitoring.

Liquidity & Credit —During Q2 of 2011-12, liquidity conditions, though in deficit mode in line with the policy objective, remained comfortable. Bank credit growth is presently above the indicative trajectory. This has been supplemented by increased resource flows from non-banking sources. Going forward, credit growth is expected to moderate as growth slows. Money supply (M3) growth projection for 2011-12 has been retained at 15.5 per cent and growth of non-food credit at 18 per cent.

Financial Markets—Volatility spillovers impacted domestic currency and equity markets; rupee depreciation and the fall in equity indices in Q2 of 2011-12 were comparable to the patterns in most other emerging markets. Money market rates remained in line with policy signals, while G-sec yields hardened after the announcement of additional market borrowing. During April-July 2011, the Indian rupee exhibited two-way movement, however, since August, the rupee depreciated against all four major international currencies, reflecting prevailing global market sentiment led FII-sell-offs. Between March and September 2011, the nominal depreciation of rupee against the US dollar was at 8.7 per cent and the rupee depreciated a further 2.3 per cent between end-September and October 21, 2011. According to the assessment of the June 2011 Financial

Stability Report, The banking sector was resilient, though going forward stress tests pointed to the strains in profitability and asset quality. Under severe stress tests, banks might also face liquidity constraints.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy has been tightened considerably with an effective 500 bps rate hike cumulatively and a 100 bps increase in CRR in a span of 20 months since February 2010. The effective tightening has been of 500 basis points as liquidity in the system transited from surplus to deficit. This monetary policy response has been calibrated on the basis of India specific growth-inflation dynamics in the broader context of persistent global uncertainty. Monetary transmission has helped raise deposit and lending rates, correct the mismatch between deposit and credit growth and dampen aggregate demand.

Monetary Measures

�� The repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) has been increased by 25 basis points, from 8.25 per cent to

8.5 per cent with immediate effect.

�� As per the new operating procedure, the reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a 100 basis point spread below

the repo rate, automatically adjusts to 7.5 per cent.

�� The Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate, determined with a spread of 100 basis points above the repo rate, gets

recalibrated t0 9.5 per cent.

�� The Bank Rate remains at 6.0 per cent.

�� The cash reserve ratio (CRR) remains unchanged at 6 per cent of NDTL of scheduled banks.

Guidance—The expected inflation outcomes provide some room for monetary policy to address growth risks in the short run; notwithstanding current rates of inflation persisting till November (December release), the likelihood of a rate action in the December mid-quarter review is relatively low. If the inflation trajectory conforms to projections, further rate hikes may not be warranted.

Developmental and Regulatory Polices Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate RBI has decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit interest rate with immediate effect; banks are free to determine their savings bank deposit interest rate, subject to the following two conditions: First, each bank will have to offer a uniform interest rate on savings bank deposits up to Rs.1 lakh, irrespective of the amount in the account within this limit.


27

Second, for savings bank deposits over Rs.1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if it so chooses. However, there should not be any discrimination from customer to customer on interest rates for similar amount of deposit. Several up coming developmental and regulatory policy changes have been announced; these include:

Financial Market Products— to issue the final guidelines on the cash settled 5-year and 2-year IRFs, including the final

settlement price by end-December 2011. to make the guidelines on CDS effective by end-November 2011. to issue guidelines on short sale in government securities by end-December 2011.

Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion— To provide enhanced banking services in Tier 2 centres, it is proposed to permit domestic scheduled commercial banks (other than RRBs) to open branches in Tier 2 centres (with population 50,000

to 99,999 as per Census 2001) without the need to take permission from the Reserve Bank in each case, subject to reporting. As there is a need to increase the maximum permissible limit of individual housing loans that can be granted by the UCBs, as also to increase the maximum repayment period for such loans, it is proposed: to increase the individual housing loan limit from Rs. 25 lakh to Rs. 30 lakh for Tier I UCBs and from Rs. 50 lakh to Rs. 70 lakh for Tier II UCBs, subject to extant prudential exposure limits; and to enhance the maximum repayment period of housing loans from the present period of 15

years to 20 years. It was announced in the Annual Monetary Policy Statement that the RBI would adhere to internationally agreed phase-in period (beginning January 1, 2013) for implementation of the Basel III framework; it is proposed to issue the draft guidelines for implementing the Basel III framework by end-December 2011.

Non-Banking Financial Companies— It is proposed to introduce a new category of NBFCs called Non-Banking Financial Company – Micro Finance Institutions (NBFC-MFIs), the regulatory framework of which will be broadly based on the recommendations of the Malegam Committee. Detailed guidelines in this regard will be issued by end-November 2011. The full report is available at: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx

Summary by Surge Research Support October 2011


28

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