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Disasters: Risk and Management

By Dr R K Sood, head of Disaster Management Centre,

Himachal Institute of Public Administration

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Major Disasters in the country : 1990 – 2001

HAZARD PROFILE OF INDIA

58.6% landmass prone to Earthquakes

12% area prone to floods

5700 KMs (out of 7516) is prone to cyclones

68% of the cultivable area is vulnerable to drought

FREQUENCY OF EXTREMES

Severe Floods - Every Year

Severe Droughts - Every 2-3 year

Earthquake, GujaratJan 2001, 13805 lives lost

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Disaster Date Deaths/DamageSikkim Earthquake September,

201160 people died, 597 injured, 759 schools, 377 medical facilities, 875 Anganwadis and 1255 other Govt. Buildings damaged

Leh Flashflood 5/6 August 2010 193 dead, 200 missing

Kosi Flood, Bihar August, 2008 527 deaths, 19323 livestock perished, 2,22,754 houses damaged, 33,29,423 persons affected

Cyclone Nisha, Tamilnadu 2008 204 deaths, $ 800 million worth damages

Kashmir Earthquake October, 2005 86,000 deaths

Bombay Floods July, 2005 1094 deaths, 167 injured, 54 missing

Indian Ocean Tsunami 26-Dec-2004 10749 Deaths (2,30,212), 5640 missing, 2.79 million people affected, 11,827 hectares of crops affected, 3,00,000 fishermen lost their livelihoods

Gujarat Earthquake 26-January, 2001

25,000 deaths and 6.3 million affected

Top 10 Disasters in India for the period 2001 to 2011

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Matter of Concern Disaster-related mortality risk is lower in high development

countries than in low development countries. Inappropriate development is responsible for configuring

disaster risk .

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Comparison of Two Earthquakes

Haiti, 12th, january, 2010

• Magnitude 7.0 Mw• 3.16 lakh dead, eaqual no.

injured• More than 2.8 lakh

buildings damaged• Education system totally

collapsed (1300 schools destroyed)

• 50 Health facilities destroyed

CHILE, 27th February, 2010• Magnitude 8.8 Mw

(6th largest recorded EQ)

• 525 persons killed

• Economic loss – US $ 15-30 Billion

Geologically Related

Disasters

Water & Climate Related

Disasters

Chemical, Industrial & Nuclear Related

Disasters

Accident Related Disasters

Biologically

Related Disasters

Earthquakes, Landslides, Mudflows, Dam

Bursts & Dam Failures

Floods, Droughts, Cyclones,

Cloud burst, Flash Floods, Avalanches, Heat & Cold Waves

Hailstorms

Chemical & Industrial Disasters, Forest Fires,

Mine Collapse, Nuclear Disasters

Road, Rail & Air Accidents,

Boat Capsizing, Major Building Collapse,

Bomb Blast, Stampedes,

Rural & Urban Fires

Biological Disasters, Epidemics, Cattle Epidemics

Emerging Threats

Man and Animal Conflict, Climate Change (GLOF & LDOF)

HAZARD THREATS IN HIMACHAL PRADESH

CHURCH AT FORSYTHGANJBEFORE AFTER

GURKHA BARRACKS

BEFORE AFTER (136 KILLED)

KANGRA FORT

BEFORE AFTER

BHOWAN TEMPLEBEFORE AFTER (2000 KILLED

CHARI VILLAGE (150 KILLED)

MACLEODGANJ (900 KILLED)

KOTWALI

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Projected Intensity Distribution

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Projected Intensity Distribution : HP

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Projected Scenario Earthquake : HP

• Estimated Injuries and Loss of Life– Mid-night estimate

– Projected Ex-gratia• ~Rs. 700 Crores

State Population(Census,

2011)

Projected

Deaths

Projected

InjuriesHimachal Pradesh

68,56,509 2.3%~1,60,00

0

16%~11,00,0

00

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Projected Scenario Earthquake : HPProjected Scenario for HP

S

NoDistrict

Population

(Census, 2011)

%

Injured% Deaths

1 Chamba 5,18,844 19.9 2.4

2 Kangra 15,07,223 15.5 2.3

3Lahul &

Spiti31,528 19.3 2.2

4 Kullu 4,37,474 19.2 2.5

5 Mandi 9,99,518 19.7 2.5

6 Hamirpur 4,54,293 16.1 2.5

7 Una 5,21,057 11.4 2.2

8 Bilaspur 3,82,056 15.0 2.2

9 Solan 5,76,670 10.4 1.8

10 Sirmaur 5,30,164 15.8 2.3

11 Shimla 8,13,384 17.0 2.4

12 Kinnaur 84,298 13.8 2.0

Zone V

Zone IV

Major Landslides that caused heavy damage in the past

Location/ HighwayYear of Occurrence

Damage to highwayFirst Last

NH-22 1988 1995 During the flood, of 1988, 1993 and 1995, 250, 350 and 475 m of the road was washed away.

NH-22 km 292-293 1988 1995 During the flood of 1988, 1993 and 1995, 200, 500 and 300 m of the road was washed away.

NH-22 km 307 1988 1995 During the flood of 1988, 1993 and 1995,100, 150 and 600 m of the road was washed away.

Name of Landslide Year Description

Jhakari 1993 Road (NH-22) stretch of about 1/2 km was completely damaged and slide debris blocked the river Sutlej. Traffic restored after two months.

Major Landslides due to flash floods

GLOF& LDOF THREAT

River Basin Glaciers Glacier Lakes

Number Area (Sq. Km)

Ice Reserves (cu. Km)

Number Area (Sq. km)

Potentially dangerous

Beas 358 758 76.40 59 236.20 5

Ravi 198 235 16.88 17 9.6 1

Chenab 681 1705 187.66 33 3.22 5

Sutlej 945 1218 94.45 40 136.46 3

Sub-basins 372 245 11.96 7 0.18 2

Total 2554 4161 387.35 156 385.22 16

Summary of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and lakes identified as Potentially dangerous in Himachal Pradesh

(Source: Ives, JD; Shrestha, RB; Mool, PK (2010) Formation of Glacial lakes in the H-K-H and GLOF Risk Assessment, ICIMOD.)

Other Disasters• A human stampede at the temple of Naina Devi

occurred on 3 August 2008. 162 people died.• Punjab governor Surendra Nath and nine

members of his family were killed when the government's Super-King aircraft crashed into high mountains in bad weather on July 9, 1994 in Himachal Pradesh.

• Timber Trail Accident• Road Accidents• Fires – Forest and Domestic• Hailstorms

28

ATTITUDE &understanding

• THEORY OF FURY OF GOD• THEORY OF FURY OF NATURE• SCIENTIFIC THEORY

Key Elements of a Disaster

D=(H+R)*V-C• Disaster result from the combination of hazards, conditions

of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk.

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Hazard• A dangerous

phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.

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Vulnerability

• The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.

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Chirgaon after cloud burst on 11 August 1997, total causalities 124

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Cloudburst in Manali, 2011

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Cloudburst in Manali, 2011

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Capturing dimensions of vulnerability and capacity

•The conditions determined by the physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards/development related risks.

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Capacity• The combination

of all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, society or organization that can be used to achieve agreed goals.

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Risk• Risk is the probability of

harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, disruption to livelihoods and economic activity, and damage to property or the environment) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions.

• Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation:

Risk = (H X V) / C

Risk = f (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, Location).

HAZARD- occurrence of an earthquake of sufficient Magnitude (hence: Intensity at the epicenter) capable of causing damage to the man-made structures.

EXPOSURE- Objects and structures built by man which are exposed to the effects of the `hazard‘: buildings, bridges, dams, power plant, life-line structure, etc.

VULNERABILITY-Damageability of the `exposure' under the action of the hazard; weaker ones being more vulnerable and `risky' than the stronger ones.

LOCATION- (i) How far the `exposure' is situated from the Hazard location the nearer ones being in greater danger than those far away, and

(ii) Local site conditions which can modify the hazard and/or affect the stability of the exposure, such as topography, soil deposit, water table, etc.

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Resilience

• Ability to absorb change

• Ability + Self organizing

• Ability to Re-organize

Source: CCR Handbook

Resilience is the ability to withstand damage or to recover quickly from a shock such as a disaster. A high level of resilience allows people, systems and environments to recover quickly, therefore reducing the negative impact of a shock.

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Resilience (2)SWARM THEORY

ALLIGNMENT

COHESION

SEPERATION

SWARM: On a system level, a swarm is hardly vulnerable

System Properties:• High Degree of Redundancy (Individuals)• Flexibility/Robustness• Adaptive Behavior• Responsiveness/Reorganization

Organizational Properties:• Decentralized (no central command)• Systems behavior is emergent

Slide Ref: William Veerbeek, VIRUS and SOUP

When does a HAZARD lead to a Disaster ?

The DM Act, 2005

“Disaster” means a catastrophe , mishap, calamity or grave occurrence in any area , arising from natural or manmade causes, or by accident or negligence which results in substantial loss of life or human suffering or damage to, and destruction of , property, or damage to, or degradation of , environment , and is of such nature or magnitude to be beyond the coping capacity of the community of the affected areas;

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Disaster• A serious disruption

of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

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The Climate Change Problem:

The report also confirms that the current atmospheric concentration of Carbon dioxide and Methane, the two important heat-trapping gases, "exceeds by far the natural range over the last 6,50,000 years."

International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment 2007 Report concludes that the Global Warming is Unequivocal, and that the earth's climate is warming.

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CC Processes, Characteristics & Threats

Source: UNEP/GRID–Arendal, 'Climate change: processes, characteristics and threats', designed by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID–Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005, <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_processes_characteristics_and_threats>

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• …climate change willbring a range of impactsthat affected populationswill not be able to adaptto

Number of People Killed(Income Class/Disaster Type) (1975-2000) World Summary

27,010(1.36%)

87,414(4.41%)

520,418(26.25%)

1,347,504(67.98%)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

High Income

Upper Middle Income

Lower Middle Income

Low Income

Inco

me C

lass

Number of People Killed('000s)Drought Earthquake Epidemic Flood Slide Volcano Wind storm Others

Low income

Lower-middle income

Upper-middle income

High income

CC impacts: more risk superimposed over increasing-risk pattern…and increasing inequality

Source: EM-DAT, OFDA/CRED, Brussels, world data 1900-2004:

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Climate Change Adaptation• refers to actions taken to limit the

negative impact of climate change on human systems.

• This can be defined as “initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects” (IPCC, 2007b).

• This includes actions taken to limit the impacts of both the slow trends associated with climate change, such as sea level rise or less predictable rainfall, and adaptation to increased frequency and magnitude of climatic hazards.

GENESIS Contd.,

EARLIER CONCEPT – Reactive 4 R

RescueRecoveryReliefRehabilitation

PRESENT CONCEPT - ProactivePlanningPreventionPreparednessResponse

Crunch model1. Disaster happens only when a hazard affects vulnerable people

and these two elements come together.2. A natural phenomenon by itself is not a disaster; 3. Population maybe vulnerable for many years, yet without the

“trigger event”, there is no disaster.4. Vulnerability - a pressure that is rooted in socio-economic and

political processes - is built up and has to be addressed, or released, to reduce the risk of a disaster. These processes may include poverty, age-related discrimination, exclusion or exploitation based on gender, ethnic or religious factors. The outcome will be “safe” as opposed to “unsafe conditions”,

5. Resilient or capable communities” as opposed to “vulnerable communities” and “sustainable livelihoods” as opposed to “unsustainable livelihoods”.

• For example, for people living by a river prone to sudden onset flooding:

• • “unsafe conditions” may be: poor housing conditions, dangerous location, risky livelihoods, lack of disaster preparedness skills, etc.

• • “dynamic pressures” may be: no community organization for collective efforts to reduce flood risks, rapid migration tendencies that change the social structure, the lack of local markets for small farmers to sell their produces or buy agricultural inputs, etc.

• • “root causes” may be: government negligence of sand mining in that river, the lack of government policy on flood warning systems and land use planning, poor men and women are not allowed to attend meetings on flood mitigation and emergency response preparedness, etc.

Linking DRR & Climate Change

Climate Change Mitigation

Climate Change Adaptation

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Convergence of CCA and DRR (Turnbull et al., 2013)

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108 SERVICE NOEC

Early

Warning

SEOC

Nodal Department

DEOC

Sub Division/ Block CR

VDRC

Community Victims

Community Victims

Community Victims

Flow of Information: NOEC to Grassroots level

The information flow when warning signals are available:

Central nodal agency (IMD-

CWC)

NEOC/NDMA/MHA

Chief Secy. /Pr-Secy. Revenue/ SEOC

DEOC/Deputy Commissioner/DDMA

SDM

All nodal Departments

ESF

BDO / Tehsildar

Village Pradhan / Village Disaster Management

Committee

All nodal Departments

All nodal Functionaries

All nodal Functionaries

Information flow in situation when early warnings are not available:

Village Disaster Management Committee/ Panchayat Functionary

BDO/Tehsildar

SDM/CR

DEOC/DDMA

SEOC/SEC/SDMA

NEOC/NDMA

All Concerned

All Concerned

All Concerned

State Emergency Operation Centre (SEOC)

SEOC In charge (Special / Additional / Deputy Secretary Revenue)

Supporting Staff

State Level Committee (SLC) (SDRF)

State Executive Committee (SEC)

State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA)

District Emergency Operation Centre

Relief Commissioner / FC Revenue

Nodal Department

Sub Divisional Emergency Operation Centre (EOC)

Tehsil/sub-The/Block Emergency Operation

Centre (CR)

Sub Divisional Disaster Management

Committee/ Incident Response Team (IRT)-

SDM

District Disaster Management Authority

(Chairman- DC) / RO

ncident Commander (ADC/ADM)

Panchayat level/Village Disaster Response

Committee

Tehsil/ Sub Tehsil /Block/IRT Disaster

Management Committee

District DM

Technical /Advisory Committee(s)

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IT IS BETTER TO HAVE A PLAN WITHOUT A DISASTER, THAN TO

HAVE A DISASTER WITHOUT A PLAN

WHY THIS EXERCISE ?

To live,

To save,

progress

And to prosper

NEED Culture of Prevention & Mitigation

Culture of Strategic Thinking

Culture of Preparedness

Culture ofQuick Response