Demand Forecasting
4
Demand Forecasting เเเเเเเเเเเเเเ Demand เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เ 2 เเเเ 1. Qualitative Technique 2. Quantitative Technique Qualitative Technique 1. Survey Technique เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เ เเเเเเ Business Sector เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเ,เเเเเเเเ, เเเเเเเเเ Consumer เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ Government เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเ เเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเ 2. Opinion Polls เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เ เเเเ - เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเ เ เเเเ เเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเ เเเเ, เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ - เเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ - เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเ Delphi Technique เเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ - เเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเ Model เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ Quantitative Technique 1. Time Series Analysis เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ Demand เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ 1.1 Secular Trend เเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเเ Sa le s Ti me Sa le s
Transcript of Demand Forecasting
Demand Forecasting
Demand
2
1. Qualitative Technique 2. Quantitative Technique Qualitative Technique 1. Survey Technique
Business Sector
,
,
Consumer
Government 2. Opinion Polls
,
Delphi Technique
-
Model
Quantitative Technique 1. Time Series Analysis
Sal es
DemandTi me
1.1
Secular Trend
1.2
Cyclical Trend 1
Sal es
(SeasonalVariation)
Ti me
Cyclical Trend
10
Sal
1.3
Irregular Fluctuation Plot
es Ti me
Time Series Analysis
t
S = S0 + Sal bt
es
St = 100 + 0.59 t
So
Ti
me
S1 = So + g So S1 + g S1
:
S1 = So(1 + g)
:
S2 =
S2 = So(1 + g) St = So(1 + g)t
+ g So(1 + g):
S2 = So(1 + g) Take log
2
Run Regression
Anti log
SeasonalVariation
Seasonal Factor
1
1
Forecast
1
Seasonal Factor 1 Quarter 1
Seasonal Factor Forecast Actual = Quarter
= 0.8 0.8
Forecast Forecast
1
Seasonal Factor
Irregular Fluctuation
Technique
Smoothing
Technique
1. Moving Average
3
3
5
5
Root of Mean Square1/2
Error (RMSE) =[ (Actual - Forcast) / n]2
RMSE
2. Exponential Smoothing
Forecast
Actual
F
t+1
= W (A t) + (1-W)F t RMSE Demand
0 W 1 RMSE
Time Series
Naive method ()
Demand Forecasting Barometer Method
Demand
Indicator
1. Leading Indicator 3. Lagging Indicator
Indicator
2. Coincident Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Leading Indicator Money Supply,
,
,
Coincident Indicator Lagging Indicator
BOI, ,
,
,
Barometric
%
Econometric Model Econometric Model Multi Equation Model
Function
Demand Single
Yt = C t + It + T t Function
C, I, T
Equation Model
Function
