2018’

Deals & Portfolio Review

Clarivate Analytics KoreaLife Science ConsultantKyung-Mi Lee

2019. 4. 16

2

AGENDA

❖ Deal-making 2018 Year-in-Review

2018년거래트렌드

인수합병동향

라이센싱및공동개발동향

글로벌제약사의거래트랜드

❖ 머신러닝 (Machine Learning)기법에기반한최초의 AI 약물개발예측프로그램

“Cortellis Drug Timeline and Success Rate”

This report contains general information only and is based on the experiences and research of Clarivate Analytics practitioners. Clarivate Analytics is not, by means of this report, rendering business, financial, investment, or other professional advice or services. This report is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Clarivate Analytics, its affiliates, and related entities shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this report.

Disclaimer

Deal-making 2018

Year-in-Review

5

M&A11%

Licenses41%

Asset Purchases

5%

Funding18%

Commercial14%

Other10%

Service1%

M&A64%

Licenses26%

Asset Purchases

5%

2018년, 거래트렌드

4014Total transactions

announced in 2018

$428 BTotal deal dollars

announced in 2018

• Unless otherwise noted, all dollars throughout presentation are USD and are nominal figures (not corrected for inflation).• Transaction types: M&A = 50-100% acquisitions, mergers, reverse mergers; Licenses = licenses, joint ventures, research

collaborations; Asset Purchases = products and business unit acquisitions; Funding = acquisitions of < 50% equity, grants, loans, other funding types; Commercial = distribution, supply, co-promotion agreements; Service = contract services; Other = royalty buyouts, spin-outs, settlements.

Funding 15%; Commercial 2%; Service 0.2%;Other 1.2%

2018’ Deal Volume 2018’ Deal size ($ billion)

Source : 2019, Cortellis

6

M&A, 482 M&A, 449

Licenses, 1811

Licenses, 1658

Asset Purch, 210 Asset Purch,

184

Funding, 941

Funding, 734

Commercial, 563

Commercial, 560

Service, 465

Service, 376

Other, 50

Other, 53

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2017 2018

Deal Volume

M&A, $256M&A, $276

Licenses, $88

Licenses, $111

Asset Purch, $33

Asset Purch, $22

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2017 2018

Deal Size ($ billion)

2017년 대비, 2018년은?

4014

4522$428 B

$392 B

** Funding $6.0 (2017), $14.9 (2018); Commercial $24.0, $2.0; Service <$0.1, $0.2; Other (royalty buy-out, spin-out, settlement) $4.4, $1.2.

**

**

Source : 2019, Cortellis

2018 Dealmaking

Year-in-Review

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)

8

$2.0

$2.1

$2.1

$2.1

$2.3

$2.4

$2.5

$3.7

$4.3

$4.8

$5.1

$5.7

$7.0

$7.1

$8.7

$9.0

$11.6

$13.0

$62.3

$67.0

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70

Deal size ($ billion)

2018년, Top 20 M&A

Service

Therapeutics

Therapeutics

Therapeutics

Therapeutics

Therapeutics

Cosmetics/nutrition

Therapeutics

Healthcare data

Therapeutics

Therapeutics

Therapeutics

Financial Holding firm

Therapeutics

Medical diagnostics

Therapeutics

Medical device

Medical diagnostics

Cosmetics

Therapeutics

Sector

Future milestones

Total at closure $ billion

KEY:

Pending closure

Cigna/Express Scripts

Takeda/Shire

Sanofi/Bioverativ

Celgene/Juno

International Flavors & Fragrances/Frutarom

Celgene/Impact Biomedicines ($1.1 B upfront + $5.9 B milestones)

Veritas Capital/Athenahealth

GlaxoSmithKline/TESARO

Sanofi/Ablynx

Boston Scientific/BTG

CVC Capital/Finanziaria Industriale

Aurora Cannabis/MedReleaf

Roche/Foundation Medicine

Advent International/Zentiva

Platinum Equity/LifeScan Diabetes Institute

Novartis/Endocyte

Johnson & Johnson/Ci:z Holdings

Danaher/Integrated DNA

GlaxoSmithKline/Novartis

Novartis/AveXis

Source : 2019, Cortellis

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

No

. M&

A t

ran

sact

ion

s

치료분야별 M&A transactions

2017

2018

치료분야별, 2017년 대비 2018년의 M&A

Analysis covers M&A transactions with an identifiable core therapeutic focus.

Not shown:

TAs for which there

were ≤5 M&As

announced in 2018:

• Immune

• Toxicity

• Inflammatory

Source : 2019, Cortellis

2018 Dealmaking

Year-in-Review

Licenses, Joint Ventures, and Research Collaborations

11

2018년 Top 20 라이센싱

$80

$300

$80

$50

$150

$350

$131

$170

$150

$1,000

$150

$1,850

$200

$175

$300

$1,250

$1,370

$1,565

$1,300

$1,600

$1,700

$1,622

$1,530

$1,788

$2,000

$1,688

$2,800

$3,010

$1,780

$3,505

$3,500

$4,950

$4,355

$125

$1,425

$425

$1,350

$1,100

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

Roche/SQZ Biotech

Boehringer Ingelheim/OSE…

Gilead/Scholar Rock

bluebird/Gritstone Oncology

Cilag/arGEN-X

Merck & Co/Sutro Biopharma

Gilead/Tango

Gilead/Agenus

Akcea/Ionis

Eli Lilly/AC Immune

Takeda/WAVE Life Sciences

Celgene/Prothena

Biogen/Ionis

Allogene/Cellectis

Kite/Sangamo

Bristol-Myers Squibb/Nektar

Eli Lilly/Dicerna

Janssen/Arrowhead

Genentech/Affimed

Merck & Co/Eisai

Upfront + equity ($M)

Milestones ($M)

Remainder ($M)

Oncology/Launched

Oncology/Discov

Infection/Phase 2

Oncology/Launched

Neuro/Discov

Oncology/Discov

Diversified/Discov

Neuro/Phase 2

Neuro/Discov

Neuro/Pre-reg

Oncology/Discov

Oncology/Phase 2

Oncology/Discov

Inflam/Discov

Oncology/Clinical

Oncology/Discov

Discovery stage alliances

Total announced deal size $ million

Diversified/Discov

Oncology/Discov

Neuro/Discov

Oncology/Discov

* A total of 32 licensing deals valued at > $1B were captured Cortellis as of 2 January 2018. Only the top 20 are displayed here Source : 2019, Cortellis

12

여전히높은관심, 항암과 신경계질환

Cancer, 515

Neurology/Psychiatric, 183

Infection, 129

Diversified, 91

Endocrine/Metabolic, 63

Gastrointestinal, 63

Dermatologic, 39

Cardiovascular, 37

Other/Miscellaneous, 34

Ocular, 34

Immune, 33

Genitourinary/Sexual Function, 30Inflammatory, 25Musculoskeletal, 23

Hematologic, 17 Respiratory, 17 Toxicity/Intoxication, 13

Chart includes all announced License, Joint Venture, and Research-Only collaborations where a Therapy Area is defined

Source : 2019, Cortellis

2018 Dealmaking

Year-in-Review

Top Pharma Dealmakers

14

2018 글로벌제약사들은?

• Graph covers key transaction types: M&As, Licenses/joint ventures, and Research-only deals• Not shown: Other Funding, Service, Distribution, Co-promotion only, Supply only, and Settlement transactions.• 2017 revenue from PharmExec.com Top 50 Companies (August 2018)

글로벌제약사의 BUY-side vs. SELL-side

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

No

. an

no

un

ced

tra

nsa

ctio

ns

TOTAL BUY TOTAL SELL

Source : 2019, Cortellis

15

2018년 글로벌 제약사들의관심치료분야는?

• Covers announced total deal size for key transactions types, M&As, Licenses/joint ventures, Research-only deals, and Other (Asset Purchases, Equity Stakes, Spin-outs), with identifiable therapeutic focus areas.

• Not shown: Toxicity, Unknown and Not Applicable therapy areas. • Diversified total does not include Takeda/Shire acquisition (Total for Diversified is $92,934 with deal included).• Companies are the Top 30 in terms of 2017 revenue (derived from PharmExec.com Top 50 Companies, August 2018)

글로벌제약사의치료분야별거래량과규모

Source : 2019, Cortellis

2019’s Deal-making for Q1

17

2019’ Q1 Deals

Using predictive analytics to make better decisions

Cortellis Analytics – Drug Timeline and Success Predictor

1919

Drug Timeline and Success Rate (DTSR)?

>70KA robust foundation

Real-time inputs

Powered by machine learning

Patent-pending algorithm

Drug programs

Dynamic updates

>325KClinical trials 25%

greater accuracy vs. benchmark models

More reliable results>15Years of data

More info on testing the precision of our model

20

Core traits impacting

drug success rates

Historical Cortellis (CI, CTI and CDI)

data

Upcoming milestones

Model Inputs

Model/ Algorithm Output

25% 더높아진예측률 !(벤치마킹 대비)

Patent-pending predictive model:

• 프로그램안에서특정이벤트의영향을통합하는 “Machine learning-generated model”

• 매일업데이트되는데이터 : 최신정보를기반으로미세하게조정된예측

• 특정방법을따르거나단일예측패턴이아님

• Milestones 과의약품개발의특성이필요에따라시장에적용됨

21

2019’ 블록버스터 예상약물 ‘Zolgensma‘는지금? 그리고앞으로는?

Source: Cortellis Analytics – Drug Timeline & Success Rates

22

US / International Patent Pending

Methodology – Drug Timeline & Success Rate Model

23

Methodology – program events/elements 예시Sample Milestone Events

ANDA Approval

ANDA Filing

Availability For Outlicensing

Expected Approval

Expected Clinical Trial Outcome Announcements

Expected Clinical Trial Start Date

Expected Clinical Trial End Date

IND Filing

Expected NDA/sNDA/BLA/sBLA Filing

Interim/Topline/Initial Trial Results Reported

PDUFA/BsUFA Date

Predicted Launch Date

Regulatory Committee Meetings

Regulatory Response

Safety/Black Box Warnings

Trial Completion/Final Data Reported

Sample Qualitative Data Elements

개발의특성program

• therapeutic area 가정해져있는지?• 특정 regulatory designation (Fast Track, etc.)을가지는지?

• 환자집단을나누기위해 biomarkers가사용되었는지?

• …

의약품의특성drug

• 제형변경한의약품인지?• 복합제약물인지?• …

개발의특성sponsor

• 개발 sponsor의규모는(L/M/S)?• …

More in the future, as trends develop

24

o 2017년대비, 2018년거래규모의성장

o 증가한디스커버리단계에서의에서의거래 (Top 20 중 13건)

o 증가하는추세의중국의라이센싱관심

o 여전한항암제그리고신경계질환에대한관심

o 글로벌제약사의항암분야에대한관심

o “Drug Timeline and Success Rate (DTSR)” is on your side.

Summary

25

Clarivate Analytics Life Sciences

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