David HerringNOAA Climate Program Office David.Herring@noaa.gov

June 25, 2013

Strategies for CommunicatingClimate Science to People in Denial

I. Cultural cognition and the roots of denialism

II. Science is under attack. How? Why?» Truth vs Truisms

III. Global Warming’s Six Americas

IV. Scenario 1: Seeking to engage denialists

V. Scenario 2: Avoiding or managing awkward confrontations

VI. Edward Tufte’s 7 Grand Principles of Information Design

Presentation overview

“We often can’t just ‘educate’ our way out of science-society tension. The problem is not just lack of under-standing. People do understand much of what we’re saying or want to do. They don’t like it. The conflict with their core values trumps their view of societal benefits.”

— Alan LeshnerAAAS CEO and Science Publisher

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Pew Research: Americans’ priorities in 2013Priority Items 2009 2012 2013 4-yr

1.Strengthening economy 85% 86% 86% +12.Improving job situation 82% 82% 79% -33.Reducing budget deficit 53% 69% 72% +194.Defending against terrorism 76% 69% 71% -55.Making Social Security sound63% 68% 70% +76.Improving education 61% 65% 70% +97.Making Medicare financially sound 60% 61% 65% +58.Reducing health care costs 59% 60% 63% +49.Helping the poor and needy 50% 52% 57% +710.Reducing crime 46% 48% 55% +911.Reforming tax system -- -- 52% --12.Protecting the environment 41% 43% 52% +1113.Dealing with the energy problem 60% 52% 45% -1514.Reducing influence of lobbyists 36% 40% 44% +815.Strengthening the military 44% 39% 41% -316.Dealing with moral breakdown 45% 44% 40% -517.Dealing with illegal immigration 41% 39% 39% -218.Strengthening gun laws -- -- 37% --19.Dealing with global trade 31% 38% 31% 020.Improving infrastructure -- 30% 30% --21.Dealing with global warming 30% 25% 28% -2

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Win-win opportunities to ‘connect the dots’Priority Items 2009 2012 2013 4-yr

1.Strengthening economy 85% 86% 86% +12.Improving job situation 82% 82% 79% -33.Reducing budget deficit 53% 69% 72% +194.Defending against terrorism 76% 69% 71% -55.Making Social Security sound63% 68% 70% +76.Improving education 61% 65% 70% +97.Making Medicare financially sound 60% 61% 65% +58.Reducing health care costs 59% 60% 63% +49.Helping the poor and needy 50% 52% 57% +710.Reducing crime 46% 48% 55% +911.Reforming tax system -- -- 52% --12.Protecting the environment 41% 43% 52% +1113.Dealing with the energy problem 60% 52% 45% -1514.Reducing influence of lobbyists 36% 40% 44% +815.Strengthening the military 44% 39% 41% -316.Dealing with moral breakdown 45% 44% 40% -517.Dealing with illegal immigration 41% 39% 39% -218.Strengthening gun laws -- -- 37% --19.Dealing with global trade 31% 38% 31% 020.Improving infrastructure -- 30% 30% --21.Dealing with global warming 30% 25% 28% -2

What he said yesterday… (to paraphrase)

1. Earth is warming with resulting climate changes.

2. Human emission of heat-trapping gases — mainly carbon dioxide — is the main reason Earth is warming.

3. There have been, are, and will be harmful consequences for the economy, human health and welfare, and the environment.

4. The science is settled—97% of climate scientists are in agreement with those first 3 statements.

5. We can and must pursue win-win strategies in which we address the root causes of global warming and grow the economy and create jobs. It’s not “either / or”; it’s “both / and.”

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Dynamics of vision: why his speech was spot on

To be adopted, visions must reflect the larger culture in which they operate.

When asked to judge between two competing arguments in which they have little or no expertise, people will default to the more compelling vision.

American culture has always been future focused. In the past, similar visions that succeeded aligned with the following factors and conditions:

- A core belief that the future should be better than the past

-A strong moral imperative to better the lot of the individual

-An individualistic ethic that celebrates and rewards innovators and inventors

-Mass media can bring the vision to the public

-Business interests that promote the vision of a better world in which their products play a key role

-Popularizers — recognized experts who promote the vision as factual and achievable

-A driving external force or event that makes the vision the optimal or necessary choice.

Nevertheless, what they heard was…

“…the President has once again signaled his intent to move forward with new rules that will make energy more expensive for hardworking American families. … The President plans to use executive orders to bypass Congress and create more red tape that will increase the price of electricity and gasoline.”

— Congressman Lamar Smith, R-TX

“The President’s announcement today makes clear that with his final election behind him, he is free to abandon his campaign promise to the nation of an ‘all of the above’ approach to meet our energy needs.”

— Congressman Chris Stewart, R-UT

Lamar Smith, R-Texas

Chris Stewart, R-Utah

Is this just partisan politics or different cultural cognition?

Hierarchist

Egalitarian

Individualist Communitarian

Cultural worldviews

Hierarchist

Egalitarian

Individualist Communitarian

Cultural worldviews: perception of low vs high risk

Climate ChangeNanotechnology

Guns / Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

Abortion

Involuntary mental health treatment

Abortion

Involuntary mental health treatment

Climate ChangeNanotechnology

Guns / Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

Credit: Dan Kahan, Yale U.

Predominantly white males

Key point:Successful communications are those in which the recipient is predisposed to accept the core assumptions.

Worldview matters!

People preferentially seek out information that validates their worldview, and reject information that seems threatening or risky.

Or, to put it another way…

Credit: Dan Kahan, Yale U.

The white hierarch individualist male vs all others

Cred

it: D

an K

ahan

, Yal

e U.

Cred

it: D

an K

ahan

, Yal

e U.

Key point:

Disagreements with denialists are a clash of values, rather than a clash of scientific ideas.

Key point:

The polarization in attitudes and perceptions about global warming is not due to an information deficit.

Boosting climate literacy scores alone is not enough.

Source: Dan Kahan, Yale University

II.

Science is under attack.

Why? How?

Special interest groups’ “FUD” campaigns

Michaels, David: “Doubt is Their Product.” Scientific American. June 2005, page 96.

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The art and science of ‘spin’ has evolved

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Frank Luntz

The art and science of ‘spin’ has evolved

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Frank Luntz

“The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science… Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.”

—Frank Luntz2002 memo to President George W. Bush

“The Environment: A Cleaner, Healthier, Safer America”

Key point:97% of scientists believe Earth is warming and human activities are contributing to that warming.

References:Cook, John, et al. (2013): “Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature.” Environmental Research Letters. 15 May 2013. Doran, Peter and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman (2009): “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” Eos, v90, no. 3; 20 Jan 2009.Oreskes, Naomi (2004): “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” Science, v306. 3 Dec 2004. p1686.

Scientific information competes with . . .

…intentional disinformation

Key point:

People will throw science under a bus before they will give up their values or their cultural identity.

To put it another way:

People seek information to validate their worldviews and to reinforce their cultural identity.

In the absence of truth, they’ll settle for truisms.

Truth: The body of real things, events, and facts. A statement that is in accord with factual evidence or self-evident reality.

Truisms:A statement that is obviously true and says nothing new or interesting. A proposition that states nothing beyond what is implied by any of its terms.

vs

Truth: The body of real things, events, and facts; a statement that is in accord with factual evidence or self-evident reality.

Truism:A statement that is obviously true and says nothing new or interesting. A proposition that states nothing beyond what is implied by any of its terms.

vs

Carbon dioxide is a heat-trapping gas and humans have increased its abundance in the atmosphere by about 40%.

“Every time we exhale, we exhale carbon dioxide. Every cow in the world, you know, when they do what they do you’ve got more carbon dioxide.” [Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio]

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III.

29Sour

ce: Y

ale

/ Geo

rge

Mas

on U

nive

rsity

30Sour

ce: Y

ale

/ Geo

rge

Mas

on U

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Warmest year in U.S. recorded history

31Sour

ce: Y

ale

/ Geo

rge

Mas

on U

nive

rsity

Cooler-than-average spring in U.S.

Key point:

People habitually confuse weather and climate.

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Comparing the 6 Americas: egalitarian values*

*Source: A. Leiserowitz, Yale U., October 2003 (n = 2,189)

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How much do you trust the following groups to tell you the truth about global warming?

*Source: A. Leiserowitz, Yale U., October 2003 (n = 2,189)

Comparing the 6 Americas: trust in sources*

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*Source: A. Leiserowitz, Yale U., October 2003 (n = 2,189)

Comparing the 6 Americas: support for policies*

36*Sou

rce:

A. L

eise

rowi

tz, Y

ale

U., O

ctob

er 2

003

(n =

2,1

89)

Comparing the 6 Americas: risk perceptions*

What can the U.S. do to reduce global warming?

What harm willglobal warmingcause?

How do you know thatglobal warming is occurring?

Source: Yale / George Mason University 37

16% 29% 25% 9% 13% 8%

If you could ask a climate expert one question…

Key point:The quickest way to gain someone’s trust is to listen to them and then address their chief complaint first.

Know your target audience’s values before you engage

Anecdotal evidence:

“…the drought forecasts issued by the National Integrated Drought Information System, are very useful to farmers, water planners, and other state and local officials.”

—Rep. Ralph Hall (R-Tex) (6-22-2011)

“We would cite the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) as an example of how federal agencies can work together and with states… it demonstrates key elements of how... to deliver actionable information to end users and decision-makers.”

—Letter from the Western Governors to CEQ (Response to CEQ Adaptation Interim Report), May 21, 2010

I recommend not spending time and energy trying to convince denialists that humans are causing Earth to warm.

Denialists’ modus operandi are to challenge any / all scientific evidence and to repeat simple sound bites of misinformation & truisms, rather than engage in real scientific discourse.

Confrontations with denialists are due to differences in values rather than differences of opinion about scientific ideas or data.

If you do engage with a denialist, stay calm. Refocus them and defuse their anger by ask them to tell you about themselves and their values. Keep in mind: your demeanor and affect will be more impressive to them than any factual information you possess.

Your best hope at success lies in starting within their frame of value (the economy, for instance, or a place they hold dear) and then working backward from there into climate.

In conclusion…

IV.When seeking to engage a denialist(s)

Listen to them. Read what they write. Characterize their interests, motivations, and values ahead of the engagement.

Prior to or early on in the engagement, note and build on those values & motivations that you have in common with them.

Exploit any apparent cognitive dissonance. Bring at least one good story that demonstrates success relevant to their values or motivations.

Plan to follow up with them and stay engaged. Don’t expect behavior change after one engagement (the “rule of three”).

When possible, engage with their trusted sources to explore opportunities for synergy in terms of messages & delivery.

V.How to avoid or manage an

awkward confrontation

[If they rant or monologue…] “Excuse me. Do you have a question?” (Don’t speculate if you don’t know the answer.)

If they persist in interrupting or forceful interrogation, say you’ll gladly make time to address all their concerns but, to be fair, you must allow time for everyone.

Invite them to write down all their questions / concerns & leave their card or contact info where you can follow up by phone or email. Or, you can refer them to me. ;-)

Anticipate skeptics’ questions beforehand, and include a “Supplemental Slides” section in your presentation where you prep short answers to frequently asked questions.

Don’t panic. Don’t overreact. Defuse their anger by redirecting their focus by asking them questions about themselves.

VI.Tufte’s 7 Grand Principles of

Information Design

“Theories are decided not by philosophers, but by looking at evidence.”

“The way you gain credibility with your audience is your demonstrated mastery of detail.”

— Edward TufteYale University

www.edwardtufte.com

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1980 Annual Minimum

Principle 1: Show comparisons

Image courtesy NASA Goddard SVS

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2008 Annual Minimum Image courtesy NASA Goddard SVS

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Principle 1: Show comparisons

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

KWh

U.S.

CaliforniaArt Rosenfeld at Lawrence Berkeley Lab turns his attention to the energy problem

12,000

7,000

Principle 2: Show causalityPer capita energy use in California versus all of U.S.

Population doubled & then doubled again over the last century—from 1.65 billion to more than 6 billion inhabitants.

In that same time span, there was a rise in the three most abundant human-emitted greenhouse gases, mirroring the growth in human population. Isotopic analysis and carbon cycle models established that the increase in carbon dioxide was due to fossil fuel consumption.

With the rise in those greenhouse gases, Earth experienced an unusually rapid rise in average temperature—increasing 0.7°C since 1880.

Principle 3: Show more than 1 or 2 variables

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Principle 4: Integrate word knowledge with image

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Principle 4: Integrate word knowledge with image

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Principle 5: Document everything & tell people about it

Principle 6: A presentation stands or falls on the quality, integrity, and relevance of the content.

(See next two slides…)

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A few years ago this was a wheat field A few years ago this was a wheat field in Cimarron County, Oklahoma… in Cimarron County, Oklahoma…

Photo by Gary McManus55

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…until it was hit by a prolonged period of exceptional drought conditions.

Principle 7: Show your information at once, adjacent in space, rather than stacked in time.

(See next slide…)

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www.climate.gov