DARI REVOLUSI MELALUI REFORMASI MENUJU INDONESIA SEHARUSNYA

Prof. Dr. Hamdy Hady, DEA**

DARI REVOLUSI MELALUI REFORMASI MENUJU INDONESIA SEHARUSNYA *)

**) Professor of Post Graduate Program of Management Science,Universitas Persada Indonesia Y.A.I, Jakarta

*) Seminar menuju Indonesia seharusnya

Metamorphosis of Indonesian Financial Crisis 1

LIST OF PRESENTATION

1. Phenomena of Indonesian CrisisSource Of Indonesian Monetary And Economic CrisisMetamorphosis CrisisTrilogy Of DevelopmentHistory Of ReformationFact & Figure

2. Strategy of DevelopmentThe Troubled Position Of IndonesiaPossibility SolutionGood Governance Of Government


THE PHENOMENA OF INDONESIAN CRISIS1


II. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CRISIS IN INDONESIA

AND WHY IT SEEMS THAT THE CRISIS IS NOT FINISHED YET

Source of Indonesian Monetary Crisis

1. Thailand’s Balance of Payment deficit

2. Domino Effect

External Factors:

1. Moral Hazard

2. Currency collaps Financial Panic (i.e. BLBI or Credit Liquidity of Indonesian Central Bank using for Forex speculation)

3. Corporate Socialism State Company (BUMN) acting as Social Company and most of them become source of Nepotism, Collution & Corruption practices. Profitable State Company sold to foreigner but Lost Ones still existing.

4. Corporate Governance Cronism Company High Cost Economy

5. Mismatch Bank Liquidity (Mismatch Currency & Maturity) & Mismanagement Not Prudent and High Speculation

6. Lack of Democracy Ineffective Control System

Internal Factors:


II. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW DO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRISIS IN INDONESIA

AND WHY IT SEEMS THE CRISIS IS NOT FINISH YET

Metamorphosis Phenomena of Indonesian Crisis

MONETARY CRISIS (July 1997)

ECONOMY CRISIS (1998)

SOCIAL CRISIS

POLITICAL CRISIS

TOTAL CRISIS

MORAL CRISIS MENTAL CRISIS LEADERSHIP CRISIS


II. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CRISIS IN INDONESIA


MONETARY CRISIS (1997)

Marked by:1. Appreciation of Forex Rate Mainly USD by around 300% 2. Increase of Inflation Rate by around 50% 3. Increase of Deposite Rate (60%) And Credit Rate (70%)


ECONOMY CRISIS (1998)

Economy crisis or Economic Recession marked by negative economy growth in 1998 by minus 13% .

Due to the increase of the three indicators of monetary crisis mentioned above, there are escalation of business risk that have its implicatiopn to economic activity either for macro unit (government sector) or micro unit of economy (private sectors). The further consequences are the decrease of production & operation activities, decrease of trade activitiess and mainly invesment activities especially for foreign investment.Then the economy activity slows down & many companies were closed and as consequences unemployement increase dramatically. The final result was the decrease of income/capita and economic experiences contraction of -13% in 1998.

II. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRISIS IN INDONESIA


SOCIAL CRISIS (12 -14 May 1998)

Social crisis is marked by Social Gap, Riots and Racial Unrest

POLITICAL CRISIS (21 MEI 1998)

Political crisis is marked by the step down of the new orde government which replaced by reformation orde and then a change of role of the parliament (DPR/DPRD) to become more powerful then before

TOTAL CRISIS

Total crisis (cristal), morally, mentally, and leadership crisis, happens almost in all sectors of government (Executive, Legislative & Yudicative) and private (mainly business sector).


MICRO ECONOMY UNITS(PRIVATE & BUSINESS SECTOR)

Metamorphose of Crisis Mechanism

MONETARY CRISIS

1. CURRENCY COLLAPS 2. HIGH INFLATION 3. HIGH INTEREST RATE

UNCERTAIN CONDITION FOR ECONOMY UNITS

MACRO ECONOMY UNITS(GOVERNMENT SECTOR)

COST CALCULATION & FINANCIAL REPORT

GOVERNMENT BUDGET & BOP

DECREASE of GOVERNMENT & PRIVATE ACTIVITY

DECREASE OF INVESTMENTDECREASE OF PRODUCTION &

OPERATIONDECREASE OF TRADE

INCREASE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

{1 of 3 (continue)}


Metamorphose of Crisis Mechanism {2 of 3 (continue)}

INCREASE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

DECREASE OF INCOME PER CAPITA

GNP =< 0 (in 1998 – 13%)

ECONOMIC CRISIS (RECESSION)

INCREASE OF SOCIAL GAP & UNREST

SOCIAL CRISIS

RIOTS & RACIAL UNREST (MAY 12 -14, 1998)

POLITICAL CRISIS


Metamorphose of Crisis Mechanism {3 of 3 (end)}

POLITICAL CRISIS

CHANGEMENT OF GOVERNMENT (May 21, 1998)

POLITICAL REFORMATION(LEGISLATIVE BECOME MORE POWERFUL THAN BEFORE)

TOTALLY CRISIS ( MULTI DIMENSIONAL CRISIS )

MORALLY MENTALLY LEADERSHIP


THE FORMER CONCEPT OF NEW ORDE (ORDE BARU)TRILOGY OF DEVELOPMENT

TRILOGY OF DEVELOPMENT IS A REAL CONCEPT BASED ON THE MACRO ECONOMY THEORYas follows

STABILITY MONETARY

DEVELOPMENT GROWTH

EQUAL DISTRIBUTION

1. If There Is A Stability Moneter, The Investment Will Increase

2. Increase of Investment It Means Growth of Economy

3. Growth of Economy Should Be Equal Distribution In Order To Maintain The Stability


THE FORMER CONCEPT OF NEW ORDE (ORDE BARU)TRILOGY OF DEVELOPMENT

Note :

1.During The New Orde Government, Indonesian Monetary Relatively Stable, Indicated By Low of Inflation Rate and Stable Exchange Rate

2.Economic Development Growth by Arround 7% Per Year

3.But During This Periode, There Was Unequal Distribution of Economy And Development Growth

4.That’s Why Due To The Crisis 1997-1998, The People Ask Government of New Orde (Suharto) To Step Down

5.But In Malaysia, Singapore And Thailand, Their People Did Not Ask The Leader of Government To Step Down, Because There Is Relatively Exist The Equal Distribution of Economy Development


RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROSPERITY AND EQUALITY(JUSTICE)

13Metamorphosis of Indonesian Financial Crisis

EQUALITY/JUSTICE

DISEQUALITY/

UNJUSTICE

PROSPERITYPOVERTY

1. EQUALITY IN

PROSPERITY(IDEAL CONDITION)

UP COMING

3. EQUALITY/JUSTICE

WITHOUT PROSPERITY(SELF SUFFICIENT CONDITION)

PERIODE 1950-1965

2. PROSPERITY

WITHOUT

EQUALITY/JUSTICE(AUTHORITY CONDITION)

PERIODE 1966-1997

4. NO PROSPERITY

NEITHER

EQUALITY/JUSTICE(THE WORST CONDITION)

PERIODE 1998-PRESENT ?

HISTORY OF REFORMATION IN THE WORLD SINCE 1980

1. Glasnost & Perestroika or reformation simultaneus of politic & economy in Soviet Union, leading by GorbachevConsequencies : Soviet Union be divided become 17 states

2. Reformation of Economy in China from socialist economy to become market oriented economy but political remain comunist, leading by Deng Xiao Ping.

Economy of China increase by arround 10 % per year. In 30 years Economy of China multiple by around 300%

3. Reformation of Politic in Indonesia.The main crisis in Indonesia is Monetary & Economy Crisis, but the solution is Political Reformation

which marked by the Dominant Role of Parlement (legislative ) then before .

Main problem of crisis in Indonesia is mal diagnosis of crisis 1998 where monetary & economy crisis solved only by Political Reformation instead of Monetary-Economy reformation etc.

Or in other word, a man who had headache was given a treatment for stomachache. The man still had a headache and followed by a diarhea. So remain on the closet and there are bad smell everywhere, like what we are experiencing now. (Many cases of nepotism, collusion, and corruption are being revealed)


COUNTRIES 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012

INDONESIA $. 536 $. 641 $. 790 $. 2.947 $. 3.557

MALAYSIA $. 1.803 $. 2.417 $. 4.005 $. 8.729 $. 10.381

PHILIPINES $. 685 $. 715 $. 1.043 $. 2.136 $. 2.588

THAYLAND $. 683 $. 1.508 $. 1.969 $. 4.803 $. 5.474

VIETNAM $. --- $. 98 $. 402 $. 1.224 $. 1.596

SINGAPORE $. 4.913 $. 11.845 $. 42.784 $. 42.784 $. 51.709

CHINA $. 193 $. 314 $. 949 $. 4.433 $. 6.091

SOUTH KOREA $. 1.674 $. 6.153 $. 11.347 $. 20.540 $. 22.590

SOURCE :www.data.worldbank.org

DEVELOPMENT OF INCOME PER CAPITA OF SEVERAL EAST ASIA COUNTRY (in USD current)

COUNTRIES 1980 2012 LEADERSHIP MULTIPLE BY

INDONESIA $. 536 $. 3.557 SOEHARTO ETC 6,63 X

MALAYSIA $. 1.803 $. 10.381 MAHATHIR 5,75 X

PHILIPINES $. 685 $. 2.588 MARCOS 3,75 X

THAILAND $. 683 $. 5.474 BHUMIBOL A. 8,01 X

VIETNAM $. --- $. 1.596 HO CHIN MIN 16,28 X

SINGAPORE $. 4.913 $. 51.709 LEE KUAN YEW 10,52 X

CHINA $. 193 $. 6.091 DENG XIAO PING 31,55 X

SOUTH KOREA $. 1.674 $. 22.590 PARK CHUNG HEE 13,49 X

Note : For Vietnam based on y/capita 1990

PHENOMENA OF CORRELATION BETWEEN ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT and LEADERSHIP in SEVERAL EAST ASIA COUNTRIES

FACT & FIGURE of ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT in EAST ASIA SINCE 1998


STRATEGIC OF DEVELOPMENT2


This Position Trouble of Indonesia Obtained due to :

Good In Planning Formulation Strategy indicated by :

1. Using Trilogy of Development Since Government of New Orde In 1968

2. Regulery of Balance Budget System

3. Regulery of Five Year Planning Program

4. Always Based on Four Pillars of Indonesian State Known as Pancasila, UUD 1945,

Bhineka Tunggal Ika & United State of Indonesia

But due to Bad Implementation Strategy, mainly caused of :

1. Lack of Value Chain of Human Resource Leadership Outcome

2. Lack of Value Chain of Information System And Technology

3. Lack of Equal Development

4. Lack of Law Enforcement

5. Lack of Good & Adequate Leadership


COMBINATION OF STRATEGY BETWEEN PLANNING, FORMULATION & IMPLEMENTATION

PLANNING FORMULATION STRATEGY

IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY

GOOD BAD

GOOD 1. SUCCESS 3. ROULETTE

BAD 2. TROUBLE 4. FAILURE

As Showing On Matrix Above About The Strategy Combination Between Planning Formulation And Implementation Strategy, We Know Why Some Countries Get Succes But Some Countries Get Roullet Or Trouble Even Failure In Their Strategy Of Development

Based On Matrix Above We Can Conclude That Position Of Indonesia As Developing Country Most Of Time Is In The Cell No. 2 Or Trouble Caused Of Good In Planning Formulation Strategy But Bad In Implementation Strategy.


WHY IN CERTAIN COUNTRY SO MANY THE ACT TERRORIST ?

THIS PHENOMENA MAY BE COULD BE EXPLAINED BY GRAPH BELOW :

PEOPLE CLASSIFICATION BASED ON SATISFACTION & LOYALTY RELATIONSHIP

LOYALTY

DISLOYALTY

SATISFIEDUNSATISFIED

ADVOCATE(PEOPLE SATISFIED & LOYAL)

HOSTAGE(PEOPLE LOYAL BUT NOT SATISFIED )

MERCENARIES(PEOPLE SATISFIED BUT NOT LOYAL )

TERRORIST(PEOPLE NOT LOYAL & NOT SATISFIED )


THE SUCCES KEY IS DEPENDED ON :

1. Value Chain of Human Resouce Outcome

2. Value Chain of Information System & Information Technology

3. Public Services & Goods Excelent

POSSIBILITY SOLUTION


VALUE CHAIN OF HUMAN RESOUCE OUTCOME

HUMAN RESOURCES OUTCOME

1. ATTITUDE

2. BEHAVIOR

3. COMMUNICATION

ORGANIZATIONAL / MANAGERIAL OUTCOME

1. PRODUCTIVITY

2. EFFICIENCY

3. EFFECTIVITY

4. QUALITY

PRODUCTION / MARKETING OUTCOME

1. CUSTOMER / PEOPLE SATISFACTION

2. CUSTOMER / PEOPLE LOYALTY

3. PRODUCTION & SALES INCREASE

4. MARKET SHARE INCREASE

FINANCIAL / ACCOUNTING OUTCOME

1. REVENUE INCREASE

2. EXPENSES CONTROLABLE

3. PROFIT & BENEFIT INCREASE

MARKET BASED OUTCOME1. COMPANY or STATE VALUE INCREASE

2. HUMAN BEING VALUE INCREASE


Note Problem Solving Note

Correct

Step I.

Data Collection

(Facts)

Fault

Correct

Step II.

Information Analysis

(Facts Structured)

Fault

CorrectStep III.

Knowledge as PowerFault

CorrectStep IV.

Decision / Policy MakingFault

CorrectStep V.

ActionsFault

Profits & Benefits Result Loss

VALUE CHAIN OF INFORMATION SYSTEM (IS) & INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (IT)


R.O.S.E CYCLE STRATEGIC OF GOOD GOVERNANCE OF GOVERNMENT

RETURN ON SERVICE & GOODS EXCELLENT CYCLE STRATEGIC

PUBLIC SERVICES &GOODS EXCELLENT

PEOPLE SATISFACTION

PEOPLE LOYALTY

PEOPLE SUPPORT

NATIONAL STABILITY

GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE

EXCELLENT

EMPLOYEE SATISFACTION

WELFARE INCREASE

GDP & GOVERNMENT

BUDGET INCREASE

DEVELOPMENT INCREASE


Source :1. Google, Asian Crisis 19972. Internasional Financial Management , Hamdy Hady, 20123. Management Strategy , Hamdy Hady, 20124. www.dataworldbank.org5. Taufik Kiemas, Four Pillars, 2012


http://www.dataworldbank.org

DARI REVOLUSI MELALUI REFORMASI MENUJU INDONESIA SEHARUSNYA

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