Current Economic Climate in Kyushu · 2019. 5. 23. · Russian 37,660Federation Australia...

Kyushu Economic Research Center

Current Economic Climate in Kyushu


Contents

Location and size of KyushuCharacteristics of Kyushu’s economyKyushu’s main industriesKyushu’s largest city: Fukuoka CityCurrent economic conditions in Kyushu

2


Location of Kyushu

3

TOKYO

OSAKA

FUKUOKA

●SAPPORO

KYUSHU


Asian continent and Japan/Kyushu

Tokyo

Shanghai Hong Kong

Taipei

Beijing

● Seoul

DalianQingdao

KYUSHU

Sapporo Fukuoka

Vladivostok

Busan

GuangzhouNanjing

WuhanShenyang

Naha

Harbin

Fuzhou

Tianjin

Osaka

Source: Prepared by Kyushu Economic Research Center4


Geographic location of Kyushu

from FUKUOKA• 200 km: Busan, Hiroshima• 500 km: Seoul, Osaka• 1,000 km: Shanghai, Dalian, Tokyo• 1,500 km: Beijing, Taipei, Sapporo

5http://www.pref.fukuoka.lg.jp/somu/ken-dayori/201309/html/special.html

Shanghai

Taipei

Tokyo

Seoul

Osaka

Beijing

Fukuoka


Industries representing over 10% in terms of size in Japan–Industry groups earning foreign currencies

• Agricultural production 1.8 trillion yen ･･･ 21.3% (2014)• Production of forest raw materials 4.64 million m3 ･･･ 23.1% (2015)• Fish catch including fish farming 830,000 tons ･･･ 17.6% (2014)• Crude steel production 15.70 million tons ･･･ 14.9% (2015)*• Steel ship production 3.78 million gross tons ･･･ 30.0% (2015)#• Integrated circuit production 0.6 trillion yen ･･･ 27.0% (2015)*• Vehicle production 1.19 million vehicles ･･･ 12.8% (2015)*

6

Note: Figures are those for eight prefectures in Kyushu (including Okinawa). *: Excludes Okinawa. #: Includes Yamaguchi Prefecture.

6


Kyushu’s position in the global economy

7

GDP of major countries (2013) GDP per capita of major countries (2013)

13,309,114 12,106,178 11,990,063

11,523,281 10,436,701

9,939,464 9,485,739

7,257,087 6,540,687

4,781,142 4,775,834 4,763,350 4,459,870 4,361,956 4,200,256 4,180,115

3,479,494 3,387,156 3,243,788

2,878,107 2,754,202 2,739,858 2,652,208 2,525,733

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000

CanadaBrazil

Republic of KoreaSpain

MexicoRussian Federation

AustraliaNetherlands

TurkeyIndonesia

Kyushu's 8 prefectureSwitzerlandSaudi Arabia

SwedenBelgiumPolandAustriaNorway

South AfricaNigeria

ArgentinaDenmark

Iran (Islamic …Thailand

(Million dollars)

40,76339,53039,17838,914

37,77737,66037,627

35,66635,186

33,75533,31632,889

31,33129,91429,68529,307

28,16427,17726,480

25,34724,80524,054

22,27522,145

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

AustraliaGermanyFinlandJapan

CanadaBelgium

SingaporeFrance

AndorraChina, Hong Kong SAR

GreenlandKyushu's 8 prefecture

New CaledoniaBritish Virgin Islands

New ZealandItaly

KuwaitBrunei Darussalam

United Arab EmiratesIsraelSpain

Republic of KoreaSint Maarten (Dutch part)

Cyprus

(USD)

Source: “National Accounts Main Aggregates Database” by United Nations , “Prefectural Accounts” published by the Cabinet Office, Note) Real: Fixed-base method (Base for 2005)


Contents


8


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Japan is transforming into a society

with a shrinking population

Japan’s long-term population projection (by population composition)

9

Youth population

Youth population16.84 million

（13.1%）

Youth population7.91million

（9.1%）

Youth population25.17million

（24.0%）

Total population128.06million

Total population104.67million Total population

86.74million

Working-age population 72.11million

（68.9%）


（63.8%）


（50.9%）

Elderly population7.39million

（7.1%）


（23.0%）


（39.9%）

Working-age population

Note：Youth population 0～14、 Working-age population 15～64、Elderly population 65～

Elderly population

Source: “Population Projection for Japan: 2011-2060 (January 2012)” by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research


Kyushu’s population is also increasingly shrinking

• Kyushu/Okinawa: 2010 → 2040– 14.60 million →12.12 million– A decrease of 2.48 million (17.0%)

Source: 2014 Outline of Kyushu’s Economy (page 13)

九州の市区町村別人口将来推計（2010－2040年）

Population change and forecast

Source: 2014 Outline of Kyushu’s Economy (page 12)

(thousand persons)

10


Kyushu’s industries have grown in a multi-layered manner.

11

Smokestack industries

(Coal, steel, chemical, shipbuilding, etc.)

Agricultural, forestry, fishery

and food industries

Processing and assembly industries

(Automobile, semiconductor, electronic

parts, etc.)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Service industry(Tourism, health,

medical, welfare, etc.)

Clean industry(Environment,

renewable energy, etc.)


Main foreign currency-earning industries

(Million yen)

Ranking 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

1stRolled steel products Rolled steel products Steel products

Other electronic/telecommunications

machineryAutomobile

450,001 610,950 498,830 1,352,474 991,916

2ndCeramic, stone, and

clay productsAgricultural, forestry

and fishery Agricultural, forestry

and fishery Agricultural, forestry

and fishery Electronic parts

136,220 331,732 492,101 405,642 969,467

3rdAgricultural, forestry

and fishery Ceramic, stone, and

clay Electronic machinery Steel Steel

108,654 201,249 300,030 287,810 511,162

4thBasic chemical

products Pig iron/crude steel Ceramic, stone, and clay products Automobiles Agricultural, forestry

and fishery

92,214 188,628 199,086 216,462 270,970

5thChemical fiber raw

materialsOther transportation

machinery Rubber products Ceramic, stone, and clay products Food and beverages

64,966 184,385 142,141 177,767 240,514

Trends of rankings of net outflows/exports from Kyushu

Note 1: Excludes tertiary industries. Note 2: Net outflows/exports = (outflow amount + Export amount) – (Inflow + Import)Source: Prepared by Kyushu Economic Research Center using “Interregional Input-Output Table” published by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

12


Hokkaido Tohoku Kanto(Tokyoarea )

Chubu(Nagoya area)

Kinki(Osakaarea)

Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu Okinawa All Japan

13Source: “Interregional Input-Output Table” published by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Trends of export ratios by regional bloc (manufacturers)

Kyushu’s export ratio is high–Building an economic structure for achieving growth together with Asia

gminami

タイプライターテキスト


5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Kyushu‘s GRP accounts for national GDP 10%

Ratio of Kyushu‘s GRP among national GDP is stable in around 10%.

Source: “Annual Report on Prefectural Accounts” published by the Cabinet Office

Trends of GRP of Kyushu and Yamaguchi as a percentage of national GDP

14

Presenter

Presentation Notes

・まずはデータと、その分析から確認。・右上（楕円）は白書での掲載ページ。スライドが見にくい場合は、手元の白書を適宜参照。・九州経済の全国的な位置づけを考えた時、皆様はどのように感じるか？全国の中で、九州の存在感は高まっているという実感はないか？・付加価値の合計を示す域内総生産（ＧＲＰ/ＧＤＰ）の全国比。・1990年代以降では、2度の上昇期。90年代前半と、最近2005年以降。・2006年の10.4から、毎年0.1％ポイントずつ上がる＝大きな上昇率と言ってよい。・中央の経済専門の雑誌社から、「九州特集」を組みたいという取材。頻度は増加。・中央からは九州が元気に映るようだし、全国の中で存在感を高めている。・地域特集を組む場合、九州は優先順位が高い。・それは販売に結びつくから。他の地域を特集で組んでも売れないが、「九州」は売れる。


50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

1 8 3 10 5 12 7 2 9 4 11 6 1 8 3 10 5 12 7 2 9 4 11 6 1 8 3 10 5 12 7 2 9 4 11 6 1 8 3 10 5 12 7 2 9 4 11 6 1 8 3 10 5 12 7 2 9 4 11 6 1 8 3 10 5 12

1979 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

1979.1～2017.1の平均＝100

Trends of industrial production indexes (comparison of rates (national and Kyushu))

■Kyushu’s industrial production has started to surpass national figure.

Source: “Industrial Production Index” published by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Japan＞Kyushu

Manufacturers are maintaining high operating rates

15

Kyushu ＞JapanKyushu

Japan

Presenter

Presentation Notes

・鉱工業生産指数 1979年から長期的に。・かつては、「全国＞九州」だったが、2000年代以降は「全国＜九州」に変化。・かつて、九州経済は「飛行機の後輪」に例えられていた。・すなわち景気が良くなる時は、他地域に遅れて良くなる。景気が悪くなる時は、他地域より先に悪くなる。・飛行機が離陸する時、着陸する時に、後輪が滑走路から離れる、接する動きになぞらえて、そう呼ばれてきた。・しかし、今では後輪ではなくなっています。


Contents


16


Car Island Kyushu

17

• Four automotive companies (Nissan Motor Kyushu, Nissan Shatai Kyushu, Toyota Motor Kyushu, and Daihatsu Motor Kyushu) have their finished vehicle plants in Kyushu, with a total production capacity of 1.54 million vehicles.

• In 2015, 1.33 million vehicles were produced.

Source: 2017Outline of Kyushu Economy (page 32)

Trends of number of vehicles produced <8 prefectures in Kyushu>

NISSAN SHATAIKYUSHU

TOYOTA MOTOR KYUSHU

DAIHATSUMOTOR KYUSHU

NISSAN MOTOR KYUSHU

established

Production capacity(10 thousand)

Fukuoka Prefecture

Fukuoka Prefecture

Fukuoka Prefecture

Oita Prefecture


Silicon Island Kyushu

18

• In Japan, many semiconductor factories have been forced to reorganize, but one-fourth of semiconductor production in Japan is still carried out in Kyushu.

• The main factories of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and silicon wafers are also located in Kyushu.

Source: 2017 Outline of Kyushu Economy (page 32)

Trends of IC production volumes < 8 prefectures in Kyushu>


Office locations–Leading automotive companies

Source: 2017Outline of Kyushu Economy

Office locations–Leading companies handling electronics products/electronic devices


Food Island Kyushu

20

• Agricultural production amounted to 1.7 trillion yen, 20% of national production.

• South Kyushu is famous for its livestock farming, as well as forestry and fishery industries.

• Fresh food materials are available for its prospering food industry.

Source: 2017 Outline of Kyushu Economy (page 26)

Agricultural production by bloc and by food material (2014)


Onsen Island Kyushu

21

• There are a variety of tourist attractions (e.g. nature, history, and foods) across Kyushu, with onsen as the central attraction because there are more hot spring sources and larger volumes of hot spring water than in any other region.

• The number of foreigner visitors to kyushu,Japan increased 3.2 times in 10 years (2005: 630,000 -> 2015: 2,050,000)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

「海外向け九州観光ブランドづくりに係る基礎調査事業」（12年度）訪日経験のある華東地域住民へのネットアンケートで関心度の高かった観光資源 ①露天風呂、②桜島、③高千穂峡、④別府温泉、⑤焼き牡蠣


Solar & Geothermal Island Kyushu

22

The authorized facilities output of the renewable energy（As of the end of November, 2016）

Solar

Other renewable energy

Source: Kyushu Bureau of Economy, Trade and Industry

main hot springs targeted for an application of the hot spring heat generation without digging

The number of the power stations

The authorization output（kW)

Hokkaido 1 50,000Tohoku 6 259,800Kanto 1 3,300Kyushu 5 212,000

Source:NEDO(2010)

Geothermal power plant for business

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

OkinawaKyushuShikokuChugoku

KinkiChubuKanto

TohokuHokkaido

（MW）

0 1,000 2,000 3,000

OkinawaKyushuShikokuChugoku

KinkiChubuKanto

TohokuHokkaido

Wind Hydraulic Biomass Geothermal

Presenter

Presentation Notes

「海外向け九州観光ブランドづくりに係る基礎調査事業」（12年度）訪日経験のある華東地域住民へのネットアンケートで関心度の高かった観光資源 ①露天風呂、②桜島、③高千穂峡、④別府温泉、⑤焼き牡蠣

Kyushu Economic Research Center23

Clean Industry

Energy & Environment

Agricultural/Forestry/Fishery/Food Industries

Agriculture

Medical/Healthcare/Cosmetics Industries

Health

Tourism Industry

Tourism

EarthSmart Agriculture

Foods/Green Tourism

Healthy Smart City

Healthcare Tourism

• Announced in March 2014 by the Conference of Industrial Competitiveness in Kyushu and Okinawa.

Kyushu-Okinawa Earth Strategy for growth industries


Leading companies headquartered in Kyushu

24

（Sony Semiconductor Corporation）（Kyushu Electric Power）（TOYOTA MOTOR KYUSHU）（TOTO LTD）

（ Daihatsu Motor Kyushu ）（Coca-Cola West ）

（ASTEM, Inc）

（Shin-Idemitsu）

（Kyushu Railway Company）（YASKAWA ELECTRIC CORPORATION）（Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical ）

（KYUDENKO CORPORATION ）

（Saibu-gas）

（Oita Canon）

（PLENUS）（ASO GROUP）（BEST DENKI ）

（Nishi-Nippon Railroad ）

http://www.yaskawa.co.jp/index.html

http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%95%E3%82%A1%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AB:Sony_logo.svg

http://www.brand-yurai.net/rdx/280_1.html

http://www.kyudenko.co.jp/

http://www.nishitetsu.co.jp/index.html

http://www.oita-canon.co.jp/index.html

http://www.bestdenki.ne.jp/


Companies in Kyushu that carry on Japanese traditions

25

Mechanical dolls

Two-arm robot of Yasukawa Electric (Kita Kyushu City)

Ceramics(Kyushu is a leading region for ceramic production in Japan.) Latest model of washlet toilet of TOTO (Kita Kyushu City)

http://www.yaskawa.co.jp/index.html

Kyushu Economic Research Center26

Zen (Zen meditation) Pinball gameAji Shuchu Counter (individually partitioned counter) of Ichiran, a Hakata ramen restaurant (Fukuoka City)

Companies in Kyushu that carry on Japanese traditions

Animal-human Caricatures (12th – 13th century)

Yokai Watch 2, a video game released by Level-5 (Fukuoka City)

http://matome.naver.jp/odai/2140660154568477501/2140661705881219203


Contents

Location and size of KyushuCharacteristics of Kyushu’s economyKyushu’s main industriesKyushu’ largest city: Fukuoka CityCurrent economic conditions in Kyushu

27


Kyushu’s largest city: Fukuoka City

28

City population: 1.5 million; Population of the city and surrounding areas: 2.5 millionCompact city with urban functions, airport, railway stations, and port located within a radius of 3 km

http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/tiiki/toshisaisei/yuushikisya/250328/1.pdf

Fukuoka Airport

Hakata Station

Kyushu Sinkansen

Downtown

City hotel 23,000 rooms

WaterfrontConvention zone

International seaport


1 London 21 Istanbul2 New York 22 Osaka3 Tokyo 23 Brussels4 Paris 24 San Francisco5 Singapore 25 Chicago6 Seoul 26 Madrid7 Hong Kong 27 Boston8 Amsterdam 28 Vancouver9 Berlin 29 Washington D.C.

10 Vienna 30 Geneva11 Frankfurt 31 Milan12 Shanghai 32 Kuala Lumpur13 Los Angeles 33 Taipei14 Sydney 34 Bangkok15 Stockholm 35 Moscow16 Zurich 36 Fukuoka17 Beijing 37 Mexico City18 Toronto 38 Sao Paulo19 Copenhagen 39 Mumbai20 Barcelona 40 Jakarta

Global Power City Index（JAPAN） -2016

29

Source: “Global Power City Index 2016” published by the Institute for Urban Strategies (Mori Memorial Foundation) in October 2016


Global City Competitiveness (USA) -2012

30

Source: “Hot Spots: Benchmarking Global City Competitiveness” published by Citi Bank（2011)


Most Livable Cities (U.K) -2016

31

Source: “Monocle’s New Quality of Life Top 25 Cities Survey” Monocle（2016）

Rank City Rank City

1 Tokyo 13 Zurich

2 Berlin 14 Madrid

3 Vienna 15 Hamburg

4 Copenhagen 16 Lisbon

5 Munich 17 Dusseldorf

6 Melbourne 18 Hong Kong

7 Fukuoka 19 Barcelona

8 Sydney 20 Singapore

9 Kyoto 21 Amsterdam

10 Stockholm 22 Auckland

11 Vancouver 23 Honolulu

12 Helsinki 24 Portland

25 Montreal


2,594

2,118

1,768 1,489

1,237

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Tokyo Yokohama Osaka Nagoya Fukuoka（¥/㎡）

Fukuoka City has plentiful human resources and affordable rents

32

Office rent (monthly) (February 2017)

Source:“MIKI OFFICE REPORT” published by Miki Shoji Co.,ltd.,“Retail price survey ” published by Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal

Affairs and Communications

• Students to population ratio ranks third in Japan.

• Office rent is about 50% of that in Tokyo.

• Residential rent is about 48% of that in Tokyo.

Special features of September 2016 Edition of Statistics on Fukuokahttp://www.city.fukuoka.lg.jp/data/open/cnt/3/7274/1/201609HPSP.pdf

Students to population ratio Residential rent (monthly housing rent) (February 2017)

KyotoTokyo

Fukuoka

5,653

3,287 3,365 3,291 2,823

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Tokyo Yokohama Osaka Nagoya Fukuoka（¥/㎡）


National Strategic Special Zones (March 2014)

33

• Six regions have been designated nationwide. Fukuoka City aims to be a Special Zone for Global Startups and Job Creation.

Niigata City, Niigata PrefectureBase for large‐scale agricultural reforms

Kansai area (Osaka/Hyogo/Kyoto)Innovation base for medical industries; Support for personnel

Tokyo area (Tokyo/Kanagawa/Narita City, Chiba)Base for international business and innovation

OkinawaBase for international tourism

Yabu City, Hyogo PrefectureBase for agricultural reform in semi‐mountainous areas

Fukuoka City, Fukuoka PrefectureBase for employment reforms to promote business creation


Contents

Location and size of KyushuCharacteristics of Kyushu’s economyKyushu’s main industriesKyushu’s largest city: Fukuoka CityCurrent economic conditions (latest trends) in Kyushu

34


Kyushu’s economy in 2017

35

Trends of real economic growth rates and forecasts

Since 2015, the growth rate of Kyushu’s GRP rises gradually.In 2017, the rate of Kyushu is forecasted to increase to 1.9%, a level will exceed national GDP growth rate for the first time in three years.

2.6

‐0.4

1.3 1.3 1.5

1.8

‐1.3

0.9 1.3

1.9

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Japan GDP Kyushu GRP

％

FYNote) Real: Fixed-base method (Base for 2005)Source: “Prefectural Accounts” published by the Cabinet Office, and estimates and predictions by Kyushu Economic Research Center


Characteristics of 2017 figures

36

• 2016– The pace of recovery

accelerate.– But, wage growth rate in

Kyushu will be low for nationwide .

– Improvement of tradebalance keep on by increasing foreign tourists .

• 2017– Steady recovery after 2016

Kumamoto Earthquake.– Population decline will be

bottleneck for economic growth.

– Increase of export due to recovering world economy.

Trends of growth rate of Kyushu’s economy (real); Contribution

Note) Real: Fixed-base method (Base for 2005)Source: “Prefectural Accounts” published by the Cabinet Office, and estimates and predictions by Kyushu Economic Research Center

0.8%1.5%

1.9%

-2.7%

0.4%

5.5%

1.8%

-1.0%

1.8%

-1.3%

0.9% 1.3% 1.9%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

実績実績実績実績実績実績実績実績実績推計推計予測予測

⺠間消費住宅投資設備投資政府消費公共投資純移輸出

GRP FY2016 FY2017

Kyushu ＋1.3% ＋1.9%

Japan ＋1.3% ＋1.5%


Characteristics of 2017 figures

37

• 2016– The pace of recovery

accelerate.– But, wage growth rate in

Kyushu will be low for nationwide .

– Improvement of tradebalance keep on by increasing foreign tourists .

• 2017– Steady recovery after 2016

Kumamoto Earthquake.– Population decline will be

bottleneck for economic growth.

– Increase of export due to recovering world economy.

Trends of growth rate of Kyushu’s economy (real); Contribution

Note) Real: Fixed-base method (Base for 2005)Source: “Prefectural Accounts” published by the Cabinet Office, and estimates and predictions by Kyushu Economic Research Center

0.8%1.5%

1.9%

-2.7%

0.4%

5.5%

1.8%

-1.0%

1.8%

-1.3%

0.9% 1.3% 1.9%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

実績実績実績実績実績実績実績実績実績推計推計予測予測

⺠間消費住宅投資設備投資政府消費公共投資純移輸出

GRP FY2016 FY2017

Kyushu ＋1.3% ＋1.9%

Japan ＋1.3% ＋1.5%


20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 13 14 15 16 17

53.7

Current DI

Economy Watchers Survey (Street Corner Economy)

38

Economy Watchers Survey (Kyushu)

Source: “Economy Watchers Survey” published by the Cabinet Office

This survey of economic trends was conducted at the initiative of the Cabinet Office. Surveys of Kyushu region were conducted by Kyushu Economic Research Center (Number of watchers: 210 in Kyushu; 2,050 nationwide)Current DI: Current economy compared to that three months ago. Leading DI: Future economic conditions that may change within three months compared to current conditions. If DI exceeds 50, it indicates the economy is improving.In 2/2017, Current DI was 48.2. It was less than 50 for two consecutive months.On the other hand,Leading DI is more than 50 for two consecutive months.

48.2

Leading DI


Thank you for your attention.

39

(Hakata Doll)

Current Economic Climate in Kyushu · 2019. 5. 23. · Russian 37,660Federation Australia...

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