Critical metals and minerals: An Australian perspective

Dr Roger Skirrow Resources Division, Geoscience Australia

Four Mile uranium deposit, SA

Your mobile phone contains over 50 elements*

(http://news.cnet.com/2300-1041_3-6244920-16.html)

Approximately 1.5 billion mobile phones are sold each year, consuming (in value order): • Gold (~51 tonnes, t) • Palladium (~22.5 t) • Copper (~4,000 t)

• Silver (~525 t) • Platinum (~510 kg) Also requiring . . . • Rare-earth elements (REE) • Tantalum • Indium • Tin • Titanium • Lithium • Gallium • Cobalt

* If you have a recent-model smartphone

BUT SOME OF THESE METALS AND SEMI-METALS ARE SUBJECT TO HIGH RISK OF SUPPLY

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Critical commodities – what are they?

Supply risk

US National Academy of Sciences (2008)

Economic impact of

supply restriction

4 (high)

2

3

1 (low)

1 (low) 2 3 4 (high)

Rhodium

Manganese

Indium

Palladium

Rare-earth elements

Gallium

Copper (non- critical)

Tantalum

Vanadium Titanium

Lithium

Definition: metals, non-metals and minerals that perform an essential economic function but are subject to a high risk of supply.

(‘Strategic commodities’ are those important for military purposes)

Supply risk factors:

• Geological scarcity

• Lack of substitution or recycling

• Geopolitical instability

• Concentration of production and/or processing in particular countries or companies

• Lack of large-scale markets

• Production only as a by-product

• Limited methods of recovery

High criticality

Platinum Niobium

Low criticality

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Uses of critical commodities

Industry / usage Critical metals and minerals Steel-making and super-alloys (Fe-based) Cr, V, Ni, Mo, Co, Re, Nb Light alloys (e.g. in cars, aircraft; Al-based) Ti, Sc Industrial processing (catalysts etc) PGE, REE, Li, Ti, Zr, He, Sb Electronics & high-tech In, REE, PGE, Li, Ga, Ta, Nb Low-emissions energy production REE, In, Sb, Ga Low-emissions energy usage (e.g. batteries) REE, PGE, Li, Ni, Co, graphite Water & food security PGE, Cr, Ti, potash, phosphate

Catalytic converters in cars: platinum & palladium (PGE)

Industrial catalysts: woven thread of platinum

Magnets in turbines: REE (e.g. neodymium)

Super-alloys: rhenium in jet engine turbines

High-efficiency photo-voltaic: Te, In, Ga, Cd

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Demand: Leading importers of critical commodities

Source: UNComtrade, 2012

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Supply: Leading producers of critical commodities

Source: BGS World Mineral Statistics

Case 1: platinum-group elements (PGE)

• $25 billion in import value (2012)* • Supply dominated by 2 countries • South African supply at risk • Australia has few known resources • What is potential?

*Import value for top 5 countries in 2012: ~$25 billion USD (UNComtrade, Dec 2012)

(platinum, palladium, rhodium, osmium, iridium, ruthenium)

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Case 2: rare-earth elements (REE) (the REE are NOT RARE! Family of 17 metals including 15 lanthanides, scandium and yttrium)

Sources: past production from USGS (2013); supply forecasts from Roskill, Chegwinden & Kingsnorth (2010) and Kara et al. (2010)

Supply 2014 (Source: Roskill)

Demand 2014 (source: Roskill)

Neodymium production, and forecast supply and demand

future estimates historical data

batteries in electric vehicles

year

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Rare-earth element resources

Australia holds 2.2% of world’s REE economic resources but some of world’s largest sub-economic resources (Geoscience Australia, Dec 2013)

Critical commodities – Australia’s opportunities to supply global demand

• Australia is a relatively small consumer of CCs, mostly in imported goods

• Potash and phosphate (as in ‘NPK’) are some of the few critical to Australian industries (agriculture)

• However, a review by Geoscience Australia (2013) highlighted Australia’s resources of, and potential for, many critical commodities

• These represent opportunities to supply critical commodities to Australia’s trading partners

• Also opportunities for value-adding (e.g., processing, manufacturing)

Geoscience Australia’s assessment of critical commodities

• 34 metal, non-metal and mineral commodities assessed

• Level of criticality determined by ranking commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU, USA, Republic of Korea and Japan

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Geoscience Australia’s assessment of critical commodities

• 34 metal, non-metal and mineral commodities assessed

• Level of criticality determined by ranking commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU, USA, Republic of Korea and Japan

• Categories of resource potential indicate level of opportunity for Australian mineral resource industries

• Based on known resources and geological favourability

(very high)

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Geoscience Australia’s assessment of critical commodities

(high)

• 34 metal, non-metal and mineral commodities assessed

• Level of criticality determined by ranking commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU, USA, Republic of Korea and Japan

• Categories of resource potential indicate level of opportunity for Australian mineral resource industries

• Based on known resources and geological favourability

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Geoscience Australia’s assessment of critical commodities

• 34 metal, non-metal and mineral commodities assessed by Geoscience Australia

• Level of criticality is based on UK, EU, US, Republic of Korea and Japan stated priorities, and reflects risk of supply and economic importance of commodity

• Categories of resource potential indicate level of opportunity for Australian mineral resource industries

• 34 metal, non-metal and mineral commodities assessed

• Level of criticality determined by ranking commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU, USA, Republic of Korea and Japan

• Categories of resource potential indicate level of opportunity for Australian mineral resource industries

• Based on known resources and geological favourability

(moderate)

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Geoscience Australia’s assessment of critical commodities

• 34 metal, non-metal and mineral commodities assessed by Geoscience Australia

• Level of criticality is based on UK, EU, US, Republic of Korea and Japan stated priorities, and reflects risk of supply and economic importance of commodity

• Categories of resource potential indicate level of opportunity for Australian mineral resource industries

• 34 metal, non-metal and mineral commodities assessed

• Level of criticality determined by ranking commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU, USA, Republic of Korea and Japan

• Categories of resource potential indicate level of opportunity for Australian mineral resource industries

• Based on known resources and geological favourability

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Elements concentrated in ore deposits derived from Earth’s mantle

Australia’s inventory of critical and other elements

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

• Study of Ni-Cu-PGE potential by Geoscience Australia just completed; 1st of its kind for the nation

• Identified areas of known deposits

• Also predicts many other areas with potential for Ni-Cu-PGE deposits

• Information for mineral exploration companies to reduce their risk in exploration targeting

Australia’s potential for mantle-derived deposits of Ni, Cu, PGE, Cr, V

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Australia’s potential for critical commodities: tungsten, tin, lithium, REE

related to granites

• Also zirconium, niobium, tantalum, beryllium

• Geological potential currently being investigated by Geoscience Australia

• Tungsten and lithium: Australia has 11% of world’s resources of each

Tungsten-tin province

Tin-tungsten provinces

Tantalum-tin-lithium provinces

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

1:1m Surface Geology

Geoscience Australia delivers national datasets to support exploration

Gravity

Radiometrics

Magnetics

Data from Geoscience Australia and State/NT Geological Surveys

Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015

Critical Commodities – An Australian perspective

• Global demand high & rising, particularly in high-tech sectors

• Global supply subject to risks

• Australia has major resources and potential

• Opportunity for Australia to provide assured supply of critical commodities