Crispin Strategy Day - Nielsen PT

Cider Overview February 2013

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$36 $46 $60

$10 $13

$48

2010 2011 2012

Cider Sales (MM) $ Vol YA $ Vol Chg vs YA

+29%

+81%

Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12

Cider is growing at high rates, and doubled share of category in the past year

$ Share of Category 0.2 0.2 0.4

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1.2%

35.6%

15.3%

9.5%

2.5% 0.2%

-‐3.2%

MALT BASED/CIDER

CIDER CRAFT FMB W/COOLERS

IMPORTS PREMIUM BELOW PREMIUM

Compounded Annual Growth Rate 2009 -‐ Present

Cider has the highest annual growth rate out of all segments in category

Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

4 W/E 01/31/09

4 W/E 07/18/09

4 W/E 01/02/10

4 W/E 06/19/10

4 W/E 12/04/10

4 W/E 05/21/11

4 W/E 11/05/11

4 W/E 04/21/12

4 W/E 10/06/12

$ Sales (Thousands)

Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Hornsby's Magner's Strongbow Crispin Cider Co Woodchuck All Other

New brands conAnue to change the landscape of Cider

Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Trended Data through 12/29/12

Angry Orchard and Michelob ULC were around 70% of Dollar growth in 2012

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With the entrance of new products, exisAng brands conAnue to grow, but experience share declines

5.4%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2009 2010 2011 2012

$ Sales and Share of Cider

Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Hornsby's Magner's

Strongbow Crispin Cider Co Woodchuck All Other

41.2% 33.4%

38.2%

26.9%

13.6% 43.5%

46.5%

35.2%

24.3%

Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Calendar Years

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Since 2009, Hornsby’s has lost nearly 30 share points of Cider

2012 $ Share 2012 $ Share Change 2009 $ Share

Woodchuck 35.2 (11.3) 38.2

Angry Orchard 24.3 23.0 N/A

Hornsby’s 13.6 (13.2) 41.2

Michelob ULC 5.7 5.7 N/A

Strongbow 5.1 (2.0) 6.5

Crispin Cider Co 5.0 1.8 0.5

Wyder’s 1.8 (0.9) 2.9

Ace 1.5 (0.3) 1.4

Magner’s 1.4 (0.5) 1.3

Spire Mountain 1.4 (0.5) 0.8


Crispin was the only pre-‐exisAng brand in the top 10 who saw share growth this year

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$20.30

$29.87 $31.79 $33.40 $33.86 $34.34 $34.67

$35.73

$40.81 $42.17 $43.67

$48.16

$53.25

Regular Case Price

Crispin maintains its unique posiAon in premium pricing


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SegmentaAon strategy for Cider

Accessible Cider ConvenXonal Cider Upmarket Cider

Entry point to “trade-‐up/trade-‐in” to cider segment

Easily recognizable desAnaAons given

experience in segment

More sophisAcated and “high-‐end” consumers

seeking premium selecAon

Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013 Thru 2012

•  ConvenAonal ciders drive greatest volume -‐ 67% •  Growth opportuniAes across all three segments

$6.99 -‐ $7.99 $7.99 -‐ $9.99 $9.99 -‐ $10.99

Region / Retailer

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The Southeast and Pacific are leading growth for Cider

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011 – Grocery/Convenience

% Vol Chg vs YA

Share of Total

ContribuXon to Growth

Cider 25.0%

Pacific Region

22.4% 65%

7.3%

% Vol Chg vs YA

Share of Total


Cider 10.0%

Central Region

10.4% 84%

% Vol Chg vs YA

Share of Total


Cider 18.7%

Great Lakes Region

19.6% 86%

% Vol Chg vs YA

Share of Total


Cider 27.6%

Southeast Region

26.1% 71%

% Vol Chg vs YA

Share of Total


Cider 18.7%

Northeast Region

21.5% 103%

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Opportunity sAll exists across all regions for Cider

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 – Grocery/Convenience

50.9 48.2 48.0

35.8

51.7

7.7 11.0

6.2 5.4 4.9

-‐

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-‐

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Great Lakes Northeast Southeast Central Pacific

DistribuXon by Region Cider

% ACV (Breadth) % ACV Chg vs YA Avg # Items Carried (Depth)

Crispin $ / pt. ACV $24,144 $28,771 $36,315 $20,869 $56,155

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Velocity Chg vs. YA 53 298 115 (98) 168

The coastal regions saw the largest velocity gains this year

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011, Grocery/Convenience

$406

$731

$421

$493

$627

Great Lakes Northeast Southeast Central Pacific

Velocity by Region Cider

Avg. $ Sales/$MM

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Grocery channel leads, but Convenience is growing

2009 2010 2011 2012

Cider Case Sales % by Channel

Food Convenience Drug Walmart All Other

87% 86% 85%

78%

12%


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Crispin

DistribuAon popped for cider within Convenience and Walmart in summer of 2012


Michelob

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

4 W/E 01/31/09

4 W/E 07/18/09

4 W/E 01/02/10

4 W/E 06/19/10

4 W/E 12/04/10

4 W/E 05/21/11

4 W/E 11/05/11

4 W/E 04/21/12

4 W/E 10/06/12

Cider -‐ %ACV

Convenience Food Drug Walmart

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Meijer accounted for more growth than expected for Cider, while many have for Crispin

% Cider $ % Cider Growth % Crispin $ % Crispin

Growth

Kroger Corp 13.8 11.6 15.2 14.4

Publix 6.5 6.3 7.6 11.8

Safeway Corp 6.3 6.0 7.4 6.2

Delhaize Corp 5.1 4.5 0.9 1.1

Supervalu 4.3 4.0 3.6 2.5

Meijer 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.7

Hy Vee 2.2 2.2 3.7 3.0

Harris Teeter 2.2 1.8 3.2 3.7

Wegman’s 2.1 1.6 1.5 2.0

Giant Eagle 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.2

Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12

The Cider Buyer

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39.5%

14.8% 10.0%

14.6%

Net % Change Market Expansion Malt Based/Cider New

Buyers Shibing

Retained Cider buyers +6.3%

New Cider buyers +8.5%

Source of Volume – Cider

Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel (Food/Drug/Liquor;) 52 WE 6/30/12 vs YAG

Cider brings in new buyers to the category

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Source: Nielsen HomeScan, Total U.s. All Outlets, 2012

PenetraAon has doubled since 2009, with buyers spending more per occasion

0.9 1.2 1.2

1.8

2009 2010 2011 2012

PenetraXon

$16.46 $17.24 $16.81

$19.71

2009 2010 2011 2012

Dollars per Buyer

$8.52 $8.50

$9.75 $9.81

2009 2010 2011 2012

Dollars per Occasion

1.9 2.0

1.7

2.0

2009 2010 2011 2012

Purchase Frequency

Purchase Frequency dips were seen among Super Premiums and Premium in 2011

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80 80

52 46

39 36

29

19

80 77

53

42

36 32

29

16

Above Premium

Beer Only Crams Imports FMB Premium Super Premium

Below Premium

% Cider Buyers Purchasing 2011 2012

Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA

Most Cider buyers buy above premium as compared to lower priced opAons

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315

183 196

147 129

97 76 66

279

232

186

131 130

95 80

62

Crams FMB Above Premium

Imports Super Premium

Beer Only Premium Below Premium

Fair Share EQ Volume Index 2011 2012


Cider conAnues to interact heavily with Above Premium, especially Cram beers

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Cider buyers are more valuable than those of other segments

$70.17 $69.55 $67.14 $66.80 $63.05

$56.96 $56.83

$41.77

FMB Crams Imports Super Premium

Cider Beer Only exc Cider

Above Premium

Below Premium

Basket Size ($) (Items in Basket)


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Demographics Activities TV

• Young! (38% of buyers are under 35)

• Income: Mostly Affluent (49% make $70k+)

• No strong ethnic skew (80% of buyers are white)

Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total US, 52 w/e 9/29/12; Nielsen Spectra, Target Snapshot, Cider proxy profile

Cider buyers are young, internet adept

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Cider interacts heavily with highly educated, affluent young shoppers Cider

DistribuXon of Dollars

Cider Index Angry Orchard Index

Woodchuck Index

Income < 20 11.3 72 46* 62*

20 – 29 k 8.3 63 41* 94*

30 – 39 k 10.2 91 153 69

40 -‐49 k 7.4 74 103* 80

50 – 69 k 18.7 118 132 78

70-‐ 99 k 16.5 107 109 116

100+ k 27.5 149 120 173

Age < 35 35.4 207 217 140

35 -‐ 44 15.9 125 114 152

45 -‐ 54 13.1 65 85 70

55 -‐ 64 8.3 53 55 60

65+ 4.6 36 27* 35

No Female HoH 22.6 107 89 135

No HS Grad 1.1 33

HS Grad 19.1 70 75 64

Some College 23.2 93 111 73

College Grad 34.1 145 124 153

*Use DirecXonally – low sample Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA, Dollar Index

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What’s causing Cider’s growth? Greater availability

•  Increased distribuAon – across regions, retailers, and channels, distribuAon has increased. •  DistribuAon picked up in Convenience and Walmart in the middle of 2012, with

Crispin leading the growth in Walmart.

•  PenetraAon has doubled between 2009 and 2012 for cider.

•  New brands – the two biggest new brands in 2012 were 70% of Dollar growth.

•  The buyer – affluent, educated, young buyers are being brought over from outside of the beer category. •  These buyers are of high value to retailers.

AddiAonal Food for Thought

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Trader Joe’s can be another opportunity for Crispin, as its top selling categories interact heavily with Cider

Quote from Joe Heron Source: Nielsen Channel Facts Mid 2012 (52 Weeks Ending 6/30/12), Item $

Total US Trader Joe’s Whole Foods Carb Bev Wine Fresh Produce

Pet Food Deli Meats Vitamins

Snacks Fresh Produce Snacks

Paper Products Paper Products Yogurt

Bread/Baked Goods Snacks Prep Food -‐ RTE

Prep Frozen Foods Beer Milk

Fresh Produce Candy Cheese

Deli Meats Cereal Bread/Baked Goods

Electronics Eggs Juices (Shelf Stab)

Cheese Prep Food -‐ RTE Prep Frozen Foods

Cider is a “bridge between beer and wine”

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Avenues allowing the consumer to explore and discover have led growth for Crams

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011– All Outlet inc. Convenience

32.7

20.6

10.4 9.8 7.2

4.5 4.0 3.9 2.7 1.7

Share of Crabs by Style

Seasonal and Variety packs were about 33% and 15% of overall Crab

growth, respecXvely.

Share Gaining Franchises Case Share of Crabs Case Share Chg vs YA Crabs Case Vol %Chg vs YA

LEINENKUGEL'S 7.0 1.1 36.2

LAGUNITAS 1.3 0.3 49.4

MULTIPLE VALUE (Pick 6) 0.9 0.3 70.9

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2 SKUs = $39,796,038

19%

81%

Sam Adams Seasonal 6 PK Sam Adams Seasonal 6P Sam Adams Remaining Porxolio

1 SKU = $40,819,019

Seasonal packages provide nice boosts for porxolios

Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013

Craft Case Study is thru 2012

42% 58%

Leinie's Summer Shandy 6PK & 12PK Summer Shandy Seasonal 6P & 12P Leinie's Remaining Porxolio

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Cram and Ciders deliver common trends

What common trends are relevant among Ciders & Crams?

New Flavor Experiences

Product CollaboraXons

InnovaXve Packaging

Beer is Local

Leb: Virtue Cider & Oliver’s Cider CollaboraAon

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How can Crispin drive Cider? ConAnue to differenAate

•  Appeal to many different consumers by offering premium products spanning mulAple steps of JourneyFlow •  Areas of growth within Cram help the consumer explore – and Cram interacts heaviest

with Cider

•  Trader Joe’s – help them bridge beer and wine!

•  Explore packaging that can conAnue to appeal to new shoppers/groups •  More offerings within cans or bombers could make sense – especially if focusing on

Convenience

•  Locate and develop in markets that have unmet demand for Cider

Appendix

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70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4 W/E 01/31/09

4 W/E 07/18/09

4 W/E 01/02/10

4 W/E 06/19/10

4 W/E 12/04/10

4 W/E 05/21/11

4 W/E 11/05/11

4 W/E 04/21/12

4 W/E 10/06/12

Any Feature or Display % ACV Selling Crams Cider Malt Based/Cider

Cider is seen as a special occasion purchase

The sharp spike in promo support around the holidays relaAve to Beer and Cram suggests Cider is seen as a special occasion purchase


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

4 W/E 01/28/12

4 W/E 03/24/12

4 W/E 05/19/12

4 W/E 07/14/12

4 W/E 09/08/12

4 W/E 11/03/12

4 W/E 12/29/12

%ACV Food

Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Woodchuck Hornsby's Crispin

Hornsby’s steadily decreased distribuAon through 2012, with Angry Orchard nearly having more distribuAon than Woodchuck


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Angry Orchard conAnues to climb within Convenience, while Michelob’s inital rapid growth halted in the back half of 2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

4 W/E 01/28/12

4 W/E 03/24/12

4 W/E 05/19/12

4 W/E 07/14/12

4 W/E 09/08/12

4 W/E 11/03/12

4 W/E 12/29/12

%ACV Convenience



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Crispin closed the year with the highest distribuAon within Walmart!

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

4 W/E 01/28/12

4 W/E 03/24/12

4 W/E 05/19/12

4 W/E 07/14/12

4 W/E 09/08/12

4 W/E 11/03/12

4 W/E 12/29/12

%ACV Walmart



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All of the top share gainers in Cider were new since 2009 aside from Crispin Cider Co.

38.2% 43.5% 46.5%

35.2%

24.3%

Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, $ Share

2012 Share Change 2012 Share 2009 Share

Angry Orchard 23.0 24.3 N/A

Michelob ULC 5.7 5.7 N/A

Crispin 1.6 4.1 0.2

Fox Barrel 0.2 0.8 0.4

McKenzie’s 0.2 0.7 N/A

Oliver 0.2 0.2 N/A

Bold Rock 0.1 0.1 N/A

Julian 0.1 0.2 N/A

2 Towns 0.1 0.1 N/A

Tieton Cider Works 0.1 0.1 N/A

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6 & 4 packs account for 86% of total volume for Cider

Booles = 96.6% of Cider Volume

Cans = 3.2% of Cider Volume

Remaining volume is from Oliver’s Aluminum booles and Boxed Cider

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011– All Outlet inc. Convenience

6.5%

2.6%

83.4%

7.4%

Pack Size Trends -‐ Booles

6.6%

79.6%

13.8%

Pack Size Trends -‐ Cans

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350

247

216

155 139

93

37

86

308

205 191

151

120

91 65 59

Crams FMB Above Premium less Cider

Super Premium

Imports Beer Only exc Cider

Below Premium

Premium

Fair Share EQ Volume Index Woodchuck 2011 2012


Woodchuck has high interacAon with Above Premium brands

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244

210 196

167

116 93

68

29

Crams Super Premium FMB Above Premium less

Cider

Premium Beer Only exc Cider

Imports Below Premium

Fair Share EQ Volume Index Michelob ULC

2012


Michelob ULC has more interacAon with Super Premiums than FMB’s

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40

327 303

203

131 119

88 71

51

FMB Crams Above Premium less Cider

Super Premium

Imports Beer Only exc Cider

Premium Below Premium

Fair Share EQ Volume Index Angry Orchard

2012


Angry Orchard interacts heaviest with FMB’s

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Of fruits and Cider, seasonal and citrus rank highly Citruses index the highest among fruits

Fruit Index Basket Value Pumpkins* 295.8 $103.77

Citrus 183.6 $89.21

Pineapples 167.3 $130.63

Mandarins 148.2 $96.77

Tropical Fruit 140.1 $125.73

Raspberries 139.6 $132.60

Melons* 135.0 $127.94

Apples 132.9 $126.71

Berries 131.9 $129.14

Pears 130.2 $115.57

Cherries 129.6 $115.51

* = In a small amount of baskets overall Source: Nielsen ShopperVue, 2012, Index = Affinity Index , Cider and Fruit

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Fruit is in Cider baskets more omen than in average baskets Apples, Citrus, and Oranges are in the same basket most omen out of top-‐indexed fruits

Fruit % Crab Baskets w/ Fruit % All Baskets w/ Fruit

Pumpkins* 0.2 0.1

Citrus 4.6 2.5

Pineapples 0.6 0.4

Mandarins 0.8 0.6

Tropical Fruit 1.2 0.8

Raspberries 1.2 0.9

Melons* 0.1 0.1

Apples 5.9 4.5

Berries 0.8 0.6

Pears 1.0 0.7

Cherries 0.9 0.7

* = Low occurrences of item in basket overall Source: Nielsen ShopperVue, 2012, Index = Affinity Index , Cider and Fruit

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Cider producAon across Cideries, Wineries, and Breweries

•  Of top 20 brands -‐ Cideries are sAll responsible for majority of segment volume •  Brewery-‐produced ciders are driving volume to category

Cideries 60%

Breweries 15%

Wineries 25%

Cider ProducXon Breakdown

Breweries 29%

Cideries 52%

Wineries 19%

2012 Case Volume

Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013 Thru 2012

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Cider producAon across Cideries, Wineries, and Breweries

Cideries Wineries Breweries 2 TOWNS CIDERHOUSE WYDERS ANGRY ORCHARD

BLACKTHORN ACE MICHELOB ULTRA LIGHT CIDER

BOLD ROCK DOC'S DRAFT

CRISPIN HORNSBY'S

FOX BARREL LAKE CHELAN WINERY

J.K. SCRUMPY'S ORIGINAL SIN

JULIAN MCKENZIE'S

MAGNERS

SPIRE MOUNTAIN

STRONGBOW

WOODCHUCK

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Boston is bringing in unique households through Angry Orchard

Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel, Total U.S. All Outlets, YTD Ending 8/25/12

Twisted Tea

10.5% HH 28.9% Vol

Angry Orchard

7.6% HH 4.1% Vol

Boston less Angry Orchard/Twisted Tea

78.6% Households 62.4% Unit Volume

1.7% HH 3.0% Vol

1.3% HH 1.4% Vol

0.3% HH 0.3% Vol

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Stella Artois introduced a hard cider in the UK market in Feb

2011

Coming up…

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78 78

63 59

51 51

35

19

4

80 77

64

56

49 44

34

20

10

% Cider Buyers Purchasing Alcohol Segments

YAG Current Year

Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel Data 52 we 10/15/11 vs.YAG – Total US

More cider buyers buy wine than beer

Copyrig

ht ©

2013 The

Nielse

n Co

mpany. Con

fiden

Aal and

proprietary.

48

341

246

120

65

117 94

73 88

64

254

208

131 119 115

103 91 83

65

InteracXon Across Alcohol Segments

YAG Current Year


Cider interacts with Above Premium, parAcularly Cram beers.

Copyrig

ht ©

2013 The

Nielse

n Co

mpany. Con

fiden

Aal and

proprietary.

49

Cider total basket ring exceeds Spirits and Beer

$57.69

$65.44

$62.69

$58.25 $57.48

TOTAL ALCOHOL

WINE CIDER SPIRITS BEER

Dollars Per Trip Trips with Item In Basket


Crispin Strategy Day - Nielsen PT

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