Cphs Sbsp 2nc 8mincase Ext

8/7/2019 Cphs Sbsp 2nc 8mincase Ext

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/cphs-sbsp-2nc-8mincase-ext 1/16

Charles Page HS Say No to Lasers! 2

On Solvency #1 – Technical Barriers

Satellites would be too big to get into space.

David Boswell, 8/30/04, “Whatever Happened to Solar Power Satellites?,”http://www.thespacereview.com/article/214/1

A fully-operational solar power satellite system could end up needing to be enormous. Some designs suggest creatingectangular solar arrays that are several kilometers long on each side . If we assume that enough money could

ound to build something like this and that it could be run competitively against other energy options, there is thery real problem of figuring out how to get it into orbit or how to build it in orbit from separate smaller piece

The largest solar panels ever deployed in space are currently being used on the International Space Station. They covermore than 830 square meters and are 73 meters long and 11 meters wide. These large panels make the ISS one of thbrightest objects in the night sky. Scaling up from there to something much larger would be challenging, but the good news is twe can take one thing at a time.

Significant technological advances needed to make SPS a competitive and feasible terrestrial power source

National Research Council, 2001, Laying the Foundation for Space Solar Power: an assessment of NASA’s

Space Solar Power Investment Strategy, http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309075971/html/R1.html#pagetop

The current SSP technology program is directed at technical areas that have important commercial, civil,nd military applications for the nation. A dedicated NASA team, operating with a minimal budget, hasdefined a potentially valuable programone that will require significantly higher funding levels andprogrammatic stability to attain the aggressive performance, mass, and cost goals that are required forerrestrial baseload power generation. Nevertheless, significant breakthroughs will be required to achievehe final goal of cost-competitive terrestrial baseload power. The ultimate success of the terrestrial power

application depends critically on dramatic reductions in the cost of transportation from Earth to GEO.Funding plans developed during SERT are reasonable, at least during the 5 years prior to the first flightdemonstration in 2006 (see Table ES-1).

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/214/1





On Solvency #2 – Space Debris

A. Increasing satellites increases space junk, thus increasing the risk of damage to spacecraft

Christian Science Monitor 03, ((Boston, MA) October 9, 2003, Thursday SECTION: FEATURES; IDEAS; Pg. 11 HEADLIN

Lots in space BYLINE: By Peter N. Spotts Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, l/n)ncreasingly, the space about Earth is getting cluttered with such junk. And it's not just messy, it's dangerous

Full-size rocket bodies can destroy. Even smaller pieces - such as a 1965 space glove that zipped around for a month a7,000 miles per hour - amount to more than a smack in the face. They can puncture space suits and cripple satellites.

Fortunately, the aerospace community is giving the problem increasing attention. Engineers are considering everything fromechniques for rendering derelict satellites and boosters less harmful, to an international "space traffic control" system, to

Earth-based lasers that can zap the stuff. But the problem is expected to get worse as governments and companiesprepare to triple the satellite population over the next two decades and send more people into space. "If we don'tchange our ways, this could become a serious problem," says William Ailor, who heads the Center for Orbital ReentryDebris Studies at the Aerospace Corporation in El Segundo, Calif.

B. Independently, SPS would intefere with telecommunications

National Research Council 81, (Electric Power From Orbit: A Critique of a Satellite Power System, A report by theCommittee on Satellite Power Systems, Environmental Studies Board, Commission on Natural Resources, National ResearchCouncil, p. 108)

On the basis of present technology, U.S. deployment of the reference SPS would be incompatible with ournternational obligations to avoid interference with recognized telecommunications uses of the electromagnepectrum. To accommodate the unusual use of the spectrum contemplated by SPS would require designmprovements in SPS itself, design improvements in telecommunications systems, and some revision of thenternational arrangements for spectrum management in order to make room for an SPS.

C. The economy depends on these satellites

Dowd 02, (World and I May 1, 2002 SECTION: No. 5, Vol. 17; Pg. NA ; ISSN: 0887-9346 HEADLINE: Taking the high grounThe U.S. Military Marches Into Space. BYLINE: Dowd, Alan W, l/n)

Space already plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy, and America's dependence on space will only deepen

n the coming decades. Whether we recognize it or not, what happens in space affects our very way of life. "Morehan any other country," Rumsfeld argues, "the United States relies on space for its security and well-being."9 The United

States has more than eight hundred active satellites and probes orbiting the earth at any given moment. Fullya quarter of them have no military purpose at all. Instead, they circle the earth to relay everything from Nikeads to the Nikkei average; improve the use and development of farmland; guide ships, planes, and trucks toheir destinations; synchronize financial networks; support police and fire departments; and connect a

people and an economy that move at ever- increasing speed.

D. Economic decline leads to nuclear war

Mead 1992 (Sir Walter Russell, New Perspectives Quarterly, p. 30 Summer)

f so, this new failure – the failure to develop an international system to hedge against the possibility of worldwide depression

will open their eyes to their folly. Hundreds of millions – billions – of people around the world have pinned their hopes on thenternational market economy. They and their leaders have embraced market principles – and drawn closer to the West –

because they believe our system can work for them. But what if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates – or evenhrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against

poor. Russia, China, India – these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose amuch greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the ‘30s.




On Solvency #3 – Timeframe

SPS would require 10,000 launches

National Research Council 81, (Electric Power From Orbit: A Critique of a Satellite Power System, A report by theCommittee on Satellite Power Systems, Environmental Studies Board, Commission on Natural Resources, National ResearchCouncil, p. 6)

The construction of the SPS satellites would require the development of a complex system of space

ransportation, both for materials and for space workers. The first stage of transportation, from earth to LEO, would requirehe development of a heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) that would be reusable. The reference system postulates the

development of an HLLV capable of carrying about 400 metric tons. Since these vehicles would have to carry about 4 millionmetric tons of materials from earth to LEO over a period of 30 years, it would be necessary to construct a fleet of 40 to50 HLLVs to make more than 10,000 flights, an average of more than one HLLV launch per day.

There are huge barriers that stop solar power satellites for the next 40 years: all their sources are terrible

Dwayne Day , writer for the space review, 6/9/08, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1147/1

You may not have noticed, but the space activist community is all worked up about space solar power (see “A renaissance for spolar power?”, The Space Review, August 13, 2007). It is now the topic of much conversation whenever a group of spacenthusiasts get together. It was recently on the cover of the National Space Society’s magazine Ad Astra. The upcoming NewSp

008 conference will feature a panel on it. The International Space Development Conference in Washington, DC featured no lehan threeyes, threesessions on space solar power, or SSP, to use the shorthand term, plus a dinner speaker who addressedame subject. With all of this attention, one would suspect that there has been a fundamental technological

breakthrough that now makes SSP possible, or a major private or government initiative to begin at leastpreliminary work on a demonstration project. But there has been none of this . In fact, from a technologicaltandpoint, we are not much closer to space solar power today than we were when NASA conducted a big studyt in the 1970s.

The reason that SSP has gained nearly religious fervor in the activist community can be attributed to two things, neithhaving to do with technical viability. The first reason is increased public and media attention on environmentalism aenergy coupled with the high price of gasoline. When even Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups are advertised with a globalwarming message, it’s clear that the issue has reached the saturation point and everybody wants to link their pet project to the

lobal warming discussion. SSP, its advocates point out, is “green” energy, with no emissionsother than the hundreds, orprobably thousands, of rocket launches needed to build solar power satellites. The second reason is a 2007 study produc by the National Security Space Office (NSSO) on SSP. The space activist community has determined that the Departme

f Defense is the knight in shining armor that will deliver them to their shining castles in the sky. Space activists, who aremotivated by the desire to personally live and work in space, do not care about SSP per se. Although all of them are impacted bhigh gasoline prices, many of them do not believe that global climate change is occurring; or if they do believe it, they doubt thahumans contribute to it. Instead, they have latched on to SSP because it is expedient. Environmental and energy issues provide

eneral backdrop to their new enthusiasm, and the NSSO study serves as their focal point. Many people now claim that “thDepartment of Defense is interested in space solar power.” But it is not true. The NSSO study is remarkably sens

nd even-handed and states that we are nowhere near developing practical SSP and that it is not a viable solutioor even the military’s limited requirements. It states that the technology to implement space solar power doe

not currently exist… and is unlikely to exist for the next forty years. Substantial technology development must occurbefore it is even feasible. Furthermore, the report makes clear that the key technology requirement is cheap access

pace, which no longer seems as achievable as it did three decades ago (perhaps why SSP advocates tend to skip thipart of the discussion and hope others solve it for them). The activists have ignored the message and fallen in love with themessenger.





http://www.acq.osd.mil/nsso/solar/SBSPInterimAssesment0.1.pdf












On Solvency #4– Arcing

High-voltaic arcs will rip apart the platform

Kennedy Space Center, October 02 ("Spaceport Visioning Concept Study". Involving Rainer Meinke of Advanced MagnetLab; Dr. John Olds of Georgia Institute of Technology, Department of Aerospace Engineering; Dr. James Powell of Star Tram,nc; Edgar Zapata of NASA/KSC Systems Engineering Office

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/Nexgen_Downloads/Spaceport_Visioning_Final_Report.pdf)[JWu]

The current state-of-the-art voltage level for photov oltaic arrays is 160v used on the International SpaceStation. It is estimated that the arrays for a SSP platform would have to operate at 1000v or higher. At these higheevels it is known that self-destructive arcing occurs [Fig 6]. Design and manufacturing techniques to prevent such damare in the process of development by Dale Ferguson of GRC [Refs 5 and 6]. In order to utilize existing facilities and equipmentnitial development is being performed at the 300-volt level.




On NASA #1 – Inefficient

NASA will not be able to handle the project

Nansen, space engineer, 95 (Ralph, Sunpower:The global Solution to the Coming Energy Crisis, p. 219-220)

ntegration of a large complex program is not handled well by a government agency . Just look at thedisastrous cost and schedule overruns experienced by the Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS) inheir effort to manage the construction of a group of nuclear power plants in the state of Washington several years ago. The

end result was the abandonment of the program after completion of one out of the five funded plants. WPPSS thendefaulted on the billions of dollars of bonds sold to finance the rest of the project. Even the Saturn/Apollo governmentntegration team ran into trouble. After the Apollo 4 fire the director of NASA recognized that there had been insufficientntegration and control of the overall program and turned to an industrial contractor to oversee testing, integration, andvaluation to bring the program to a successful completion. Development of the Space Station was in serious trouble

under the direct management of NASA, and it was not until NASA consolidated management under a primecontractor that the cost and schedule was brought under control .

Shuttle proves government development of SSP will fail

Nansen, space engineer, 95 (Ralph, Sunpower:The global Solution to the Coming Energy Crisis, p. 218-219)

The story of the Space Shuttle is an example of how wrong a government procurement can go. The original

oncept was to develop a fully reusable two-stage vehicle. Each stage would be able to fly back to its launch base. The systemwas to be designed for minimum maintenance and rapid turnaround to achieve low perflight cost for an operational system.Unfortunately, the government made all the classic mistakes during its development cycle. First of all it was

upposed to be an operational system to provide low -cost space access, but was developed by NASA, a esearch and development agency with no commercial experience. The managers placed in charge were mainly

professional bureaucrats or technologists, while many of the experienced leaders of the Saturn/Apollo program had retired oreturned to industry. There was serious intercenter rivalry as the various NASA centers worked to change the configuration toavor their center. Instead of using proven low-cost elements to achieve an effective operational system the technologists saw he opportunity to develop new high-technology components. The politicians holding the purse strings saw it as a huge

pork barrel and shaped the design to favor contractors in their areas . Annual funding was limited (a typicalpractice in government procurement) and forced design decisions based on compromise. This in turn limited thedevelopment of low -cost operational systems and favored initially cheap systems with future high operational cost. The experienced bureaucrats made sure they could not be blamed for anything. In addition, the detail

pecifications that evolved were oriented to using the system as a research device rather than an operational system. The finalonfiguration was a hybrid design that incorporated the worst of all these factors. Today we have a Space Shuttle that worksome of the time, in spite of everything. But we went through the tragic trauma of watching the Challenger explode, carrying

her crew to their deaths. Then the gut-wrenching investigations to determine cause and blame. Finally a fix that is really only aeries of splints patching things back together. The Shuttle is two orders of magnitude more expensive to operatehan it should be and will never be able to meet its original operational goals. The development of the solar

power satellite system cannot be successful if it is developed in the same environment as the Space Shuttle.




On NASA #3 – NASA would be blocked from SPS

NASA accidents and mistakes cause significant setbacks for space programs

Freemantle 03 (Tony, February 9, The Houston Chronicle, “NASA facing a test crisis of trust,”http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/030209-shuttle02.htm)

NASA took nearly three years to get back into space after the shuttle Challenger blew up shortly after liftoff in986. It took that long in part because, in addition to repairing the spacecraft's physical flaws, the space

agency had to completely rebuild its public image, which lay in ruins as a result of mistakes it madeesponding to the crisis. Today, underfunded and its mission under siege, NASA cannot afford to make those

errors again.. "There was a horrible revulsion in public opinion at the cover-up by NASA in the Challenger case, and they aredetermined not to let that happen again," said David Acheson, a member of the Rogers Commission, the blue-ribbon panel

ppointed by President Ronald Reagan to investigate the disaster. "Some people at NASA must recall how close NASA came to losing the confidence of Congress and the taxpayers.". For the shuttle program to continue, whateverts mission, public confidence will be paramount. "Unavoidably, there is going to be some rough sailing here because

unavoidably, it will eventually be understood that mistakes were made and eventually it will be understood that someone wassleep at the switch," Pike said. "But if this develops into a massive cover-up of pervasive incompetence and there is an absencef accounting, things could go badly.”




On NASA #4 – NASA doesn't have the resources

NASA can barely hold the shuttle togetherRobert Garmong, PhD in philosophy and writer for the Ayn Rand Institute, 2005, Capitalism Magazine,http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4327

The space shuttle was built and maintained to please clashing special interest groups, not to do a clearly defined job for which there was an economic and technical need. The shuttle was to launch satellites for theDepartment of Defense and private contractors--which could be done more cheaply by lightweight, disposable

rockets. It was to carry scientific experiments--which could be done more efficiently by unmanned vehicles. But one"need" came before all technical issues: NASA's political need for showy manned vehicles. The result, asgreat a technical achievement as it is, was an over-sized, over-complicated, over-budget, overly dangerousvehicle that does everything poorly and nothing well. Indeed, the space shuttle program was supposed to be phasedout years ago, but the search for its replacement has been halted, largely because space contractors enjoy collecting onthe overpriced shuttle without the expense and bother of researching cheaper alternatives. A privateindustry could have fired them--but not so in a government project, with home-district congressmen tolobby on their behalf.There is reason to believe that the political nature of the space program may have even been directly responsible for the Columbia disaster. Fox News reported that NASA chose to stick with non-Freon-basedfoam insulation on the booster rockets, despite evidence that this type of foam causes up to eleven times amuch damage to thermal tiles as the older, Freon-based foam. Although NASA was exempted from therestrictions on Freon use, which environmentalists believe causes ozone depletion, and despite the fact that the amount of Freon released by NASA's rockets would have been trivial, the space agency elected to stick with the politically correct foam




On Colonization #1 – Epidemics

Space exploration will lead to the spread of pathogenic viruses through biohazardous land samples

Bruce Gagnon. Coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space, 1999 (Bruce K., "SpaceExploration and Exploitation," http:/lwww.space4peace.orglarticleslscandm.htm)

Potential dangers do exist though. Barry DiGregorio, author and founder of the International Committee Against Mars SampleReturn, has written that "…any Martian samples returned to Earth must be treated as biohazardous material unt

proven otherwise." At the present time NASA has taken no action to create a special facility to handle space sampleeturns. On March 6, 1997 a report issued by the Space Studies Board of the National Research Councilecommended that such a facility should be operational at least two years prior to launch of a Mars Sample

Return mission. Reminding us of the Spanish exploration of the Americas, and the smallpox virus they carried that killedhousands of indigenous people, DiGregorio warns that the Mars samples could "contain pathogenic viruses or

bacteria."

New virus spread risks extinction

David Franz, Chief Biological Scientist, Midwest Research Institute, 2005 MICROBE As Nobel laureate Josh Lederberg stated, “Pandemics are not acts of God, but are built into the ecological relationsbetween viruses, animal species and human species. There will be more surprises, because our fertile imagination does nobegin to match all the tricks that nature can play. The survival of humanity is not preordained. The single biggest thro [hu]man’s continued dominance is the virus.




Links to Militarization #1 – SPS Militarization→

Solar key to space weapons

Hagen 98, Writer for the Global Futures Bulletin, October 1 (Regina, “Military interest in space-based solar power,”http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/27b/051.html, accessed 7-12-2008

The US Air Force is officially planning for war from Space and for war in Space. The required new technologies arxplored in a 13 volume document entitled New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st Century by the USAF

Scientific Advisory Board. Each volume of “New World Vistas” focuses on a specific topic, eg on “Materials”, “Attack”,Munitions”, or “Aircraft & Propulsion”. Due to general budgetary cutbacks in defense spending “... the successful pursuit

of our new missions will demand creative use of commercial systems and technologies. This will produce anntimate intertwining of commercial and military applications to an extent not yet encountered.” A key consideration is

how to provide the tremendous power requirement for the desired Space-based platforms and weaponsystems. Although they see that radioisotope thermoelectric generators, nuclear reactors, as well as nuclear

propulsionis the “natural technology to enable high power in space”, they recognise political and socialesistance to this option. Current international treaties do not preclude the location of nuclear reactors in Space. Theirision: “It is highly likely that very large orbiting solar power stations capable of delivering energy to the earth

will be built in space in the next several decades by the commercial sector. ... These systems will likely usemicrowaves or millimeter waves for power transmission. It is not likely that we could use such systems in adual-use mode as space weapons.. [however] ...the DoD could purchase power on demand from such

ystems.”

Solar can power space weapons

Grossman 91, Professor of Journalism at State University of New York, May 31 (Karl, “We don’t need reactors in space,”http://www.animatedsoftware.com/cassini/kg9105we.htm, accessed 7-12-2008)

The U.S. government prefers nuclear power even when solar energy is an ideal alternative, as on Ulysses. For the 1996Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby mission, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has said that solar energy could

eplace plutonium power. There is plenty of time to arrange the solar alternative. Nevertheless, NASA last year beganontract negotiations with GE to build plutonium-fueled generators for this mission. Even for Star Wars, solar power

could suffice (that is, if we want Star Wars in any form). Pressed at a congressional hearing in 1988 on "The Future ofSpace Nuclear Power," Col. George Hess, then of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization, the Pentagon's Star Wars officedeclared: "I believe in the inventiveness of the American engineer, sir; that if we were restricted to have no nuclear power that

we would address other options."

Military will coopt peaceful military uses

David 02 (By Leonard David Senior Space Writer posted: 07:00 am ET 15 May 2002Space Weapons For Earth Wars,http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/space_war_020515-1.html)

The prospect of space weapons and the growing military space agenda engenders a wide variety of viewpoints. Such is the casor America's first woman in Earth orbit, Sally Ride. She recently underscored the fact that space has been used for

military purposes for decades. (Ride is the former president of SPACE.com.) Last month, Ride presented the annual DrelLecture at Stanford University, sponsored by the on-campus Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). Afterher NASA tour-of-duty, Ride worked in the late 1980s as a CISAC science fellow, serving alongside Sidney Drell, noted physicis

nd arms control expert. "Space is a real priority for national security," Ride said. She is presently a physics professor a

he University of California-San Diego and director of the University of California's Space Institute in La Jolla. Today, U.S.ntelligence agencies and the military count on some 100 satellites as part of the country's national security .These space-based assets snap detailed images day and night, keeping an eye on global hotspots, even pinpointing missileaunchings around the globe for early warning purposes. A satellite that in peacetime uses the global positioningystem (GPS) constellation of spacecraft for navigation purposes, may in wartime utilize that same capabilityo target bombs or remotely piloted vehicles, Ride said.




On Militarization #1 – Makes war inevitable

Space weapons risk arms races and accidental nuclear war with Russia

Lori Scheetz, Fall 06, “Infusing Environmental Ethics into the Space Weapons Dialogue,” Georgetown InternationalEnvironment Law Review, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Fall 2006): 57-82, pg. 62

Many in the arms control community, on the other hand, believe that space weapons will destabilize the globalcommunity and promote a costly arms race. Emphasizing the destabilizing consequences of space weapons, Thomas

Graham Jr. asserts that, because American missile interceptors in space could quickly wipe out Russian early warnatellites, the mere existence of these weapons will escalate tension between the two countries and place Russiaonstant alert. One false signal from an early warning satellite could lead to a Russian nuclear strike. Moreover,

weaponization of space might not significantly reduce American vulnerability to attack because most weaponystems will depend on ground facilities and radio links, which can be attacked through electronic hacking anamming. The actual weaponry based in space is also susceptible to attack .

China would retaliate to US space weapons deployment but favors an arms control over a weapons approach

Hui Zhang, PhD in nuclear physics, research associate in the Project on Managing,and Pavel Podvig, 08, “Russian and Chin

Responses to U.S. Military Plans in Space,” Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, pg. 65n summary, the development and deployment of U.S. missile defense systems, including weapons in space,

would definitely encourage a number of responses from China including technological development, military countermeasures, and political realignment. The type of response would depend on the specific infrastructure of U.S.missile defense and space weaponization programs. At the moment and in the near future, China's major response wouldo take an arms control approach, such as firmly advocating at the CD a legal instrument to prevent space

weaponization. Facing very limited missile defense deployment, e.g., the initial GMD currently under deployment, Chinamight focus on building more road-mobile ICBMs and developing a variety of penetration aids. If a stronger midefense system with more interceptors is deployed, China would need to produce more fissile material to fuel more warheads, nfluencing its FMCT participation. If China is confronted with the deployment of a layered (or space-based) missile

defense system, it could consider additional measures such as using ASAT weapons.

Space weapons increase likelihood of war. Creates incentives for pre-emptive attack.

Nina Tannenwald, Director International Relations Program, Brown University, Summer 04, “Law Versus Power on the HigFrontie: The Case for a Rule-Based Regie for Outer Space,” http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/tannenwald.pdf

4-5

n terms of their geostrategic impact, space-based weapons do not simply enhance existing threats but introduce a new agreater danger because of the threat they pose to strategic stability. The vulnerability of space-based weaponswill likely create incentives for preemptive attack to protect them during a crisis, greatly increasing theikelihood of war. Further, although supporters of space weapons claim that, consistent with the United States' defensiverientation to the world, such weapons would be for defensive purposes, the reality is that, given their characteristics, many ohem are inherently offensive weapons. It is widely recognized that space-based ballistic missile defenseystems could carry out surprise attacks against terrestrial targets or satellites.

Space weapons lead to “hair trigger” response, hightening chances of accidential war

Charles S. Robb, Winter 99, “Star Wars II,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 22, No. 13

The third consequence of U.S. space weaponization would be the heightened probability of strategic conflict.Anyone familiar with the destabilizing impact of MIRVs will understand that weapons in space will bring a nemeaning to the expression "hair trigger." Lasers can engage targets in seconds. Munitions fired from satelliten low-earth orbit can reach the earth's surface in minutes. As in the MIRV scenario, the side to strike first

would be able to destroy much of its opponent's space weaponry before the opponent had a chance to responThe temptation to strike first during a crisis would be overwhelming; much of the decisionmaking would havbe automated. Imagine that during a crisis one of our key military satellites stops functioning and we cannotdetermine why. We--or a computer controlling our weapons for us-must then decide whether or not to treat tas an act of war and respond accordingly. The fog of war would reach an entirely new density, with our

ituational awareness of the course of battle in space limited and our decision cycles too slow to properly command engagements. Events would occur so quickly that we could not even be sure which nation hadnitiated a strike. We would be repeating history, but this time with far graver consequences.

http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/tannenwald.pdf






On Militarization #2 – Undermine conventional military strength

Space Weapons kill US hegemony by putting current civilian and military satellites at risk.

Hui Zhang, PhD in nuclear physics, research associate in the Project on Managing,and Pavel Podvig, 08, “Russian and Chin

Responses to U.S. Military Plans in Space,” Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, pg. 74A focused space weapons ban would reduce the proliferation of ASATs. It would reduce the risk of a "Space Pearl Harbor" for omilitary and civilian satellites. As many experts in the United States point out, the heavy dependence of the United States on

pace assets means that it "has more to lose than to gain by opening the way to the testing and deployment of ASAand space weapons." For example, the United States is now more dependent on satellites to perform importantmilitary functions than is any other state. By placing weapons in space, the United States might stimulate otho balance symmetrically and asymmetrically against U.S. space assets. It would be very difficult for the Unit

States to maintain unchallenged hegemony in space weaponization, and many have argued that the United States'current military advantage in space assets would be lost or degraded by weaponization. Space weaponizationwould also threaten U.S. civilian and commercial assets. The economy and society of the United States arehighly dependent on the applications of commercial satellites. Placing weapons in space would make these

atellites much more vulnerable.

Without U.S. hegemony, a new Dark Age would emerge bringing economic and nuclear catastrophe

Ferguson 4 Niall Ferguson, Professor, History, School of Business, New York University and Senior Fellow, Hoover InstitutiStanford University, September-October 2004 (“A World Without Power” – Foreign Policy)http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3009996.html

So what is left? Waning empires. Religious revivals. Incipient anarchy. A coming retreat into fortified cities. These are the DarkAge experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. The trouble is, of course, that this Dark Awould be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. For the world is much more populous--oughly 20 times more--so friction between the world's disparate "tribes" is bound to be more frequent. Technology hasransformed production; now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fhat are known to be finite. Technology has upgraded destruction, too, so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterat. For more than two decades, globalization--the integration of world markets for commodities, labor, and capital--has raisediving standards throughout the world, except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or ci

war. The reversal of globalization--which a new Dark Age would produce--would certainly lead to economic stagnation and evedepression. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates, say, Houston or Chicago, it wonevitably become a less open society, less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work, visit, or do business. Meanwhile, as Europ

Muslim enclaves grew, Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible, increasing trans-Atlantic tensionsver the Middle East to the breaking point. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis,

unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. Western investors would lose out and conclude tower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on thedges of the waning great powers. The wealthiest ports of the global economy--from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai--wou

become the targets of plunderers and pirates. With ease, terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas, targeting oil tankers,ircraft carriers, and cruise liners, while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. Meanwhile,imited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions, beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir, perhaps endingatastrophically in the Middle East. In Latin America, wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity mported by U.S. religious orders. In Africa, the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. The few emaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents; who would wish to leave their

privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons, the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a greadeal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. If the United States retreats from global hegemony--its fragile self-imagdented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier--its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a

ra of multipolar harmony, or even a return to the good old balance of power. Be careful what you wish for. The alternative tounipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. It would be apolarity--a global vacuum of power. And far more dangerous forces tival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder.

http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3009996.html

http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3009996.html




On Militarization #3 – Space weapons ineffective

Space weapons vulnerable due to inability to maneuver in space

Bob Preston, and Calvin Shipbaugh et al., “Space Weapons, Earth Wars,” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, pg. 104

Because achieving a particular orbit requires such enormous effort, significantly changing established orbits is notgenerally practical. As a result, it is hard to concentrate the efforts of a constellation of satellites in space andime. As defenses, space weapons are static in the same way that terrestrial fortifications are. Space-based defenses ar

nherently subject to saturation by a terrestrial opponent that is able to concentrate an attack against them inpace and time. This limitation may be an advantage if a limited defense against a limited threat is needed that is observablyncapable of destabilizing a deterrence relationship with another, larger threat.

Space weapons would exacerbate the fears of a debris chain

Michael Katz-Hyman, research associate for the Space Security Project of the Henry L. Stimson Center, and Michael Krepoo-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, directed defense policy and programme reviews at the US Arms Control and

Disarmament Agency, April 03, “Assurance or Space Dominance? The Case Against Weaponizing Space,” pg. 122-3

The weaponization of space, particularly with respect to the flight-testing of antisatellite weapons, would greatly compound existing concerns over safe passage. In the event of a resumption of ASAT tests, the Pentagon wouldattempt to mitigate space debris, as it does with respect to missile defense tests, but the effectiveness of suchefforts is questionable. Moreover, other states that test ASATs may not be as conscientious about debris creatioThe actual use of ASATs would compound these dangers exponentially. Space warfare would not only constitute a threao targeted satellites, it would also create debris fields that would threaten satellites operating in low earth

orbit, including NTM, space transportation systems such as the U.S. space shuttle, and the International SpaStation. The damage resulting from warfare that includes ASAT use could be more long lasting in space than Earth.




On Militarization #4 – Creates new military threats

A. Space weapons don’t deter other countries from weaponizing space. This leads to countermeasures andpace debris destroying commercial access to space

Tariq Malik , writer for Imaginova Corporation, 1/22/04, Think Tank Warns Against Space Weapons Systems,http://www.space.com/news/weaponized_space_040122.html

Satellites orbiting high above Earth are a crucial resource for the U.S. military in terms of communications, reconnaissance an

lobal positioning. But a new report warns that too much of a space military presence, mainly the use of space-based weapons systems, may inevitably cause more problems than they're meant to solve. Should the U.S.military "weaponize" space, the report states, it will most likely be affect global commerce, weaken Americanies with other nations and eventually lead to space weapons proliferation as other groups develop

countermeasures or their own space weapons systems. The study, called Space Assurance or Space Domination? TheCase Against Weaponizing Space , was released by the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington D.C.-based nonprofit, nonpartihink tank aimed at enhancing international peace and security.When you weaponize space, you invite company ," said Michael Krepon, who wrote the report and served as the found

president of the Stimson Center. "When we go first, others will come second. That is an absolute certainty." Oncekiller satellites start destroying one another above Earth, they will cause space debris that could harm benign

atellites used by civilian agencies and companies around the world, which in turn affects global economy,according to the Stimson report. If other nations or groups choose not to put their own space weapons in orbit, they couldevelop ground-based countermeasures like electronic jamming or spoofing devices to confuse U.S. machines. A ballistic

missile could disable satellites in low-earth orbit by detonating a nuclear device, subjecting any ground troopelying intelligence from those satellites to possible attack , the study noted. Finally, the report added, space weaponystems could hurt U.S. diplomatic ties on the ground, with other nations constantly mindful of its space forces in Earth orbit.

Krepon said there is a distinction between the current militarization of space -- which uses satellites to support orces on the ground -- and weaponization, defined in the study as the flight-testing and deployment of any ystem to specifically as systems used to "fight a war in space or from space, or military capabilities on the

ground designed to kill satellites in space."

B. The world economy is reliant upon safe access to space

ohn E. Shaw and Simon P. Worden, 2002, “Whither Space Power?: Forging a Strategy for the New Century

n the meantime, we should expect an increasing use of space for "global utilities." These utilities warrant the term iullest sense. Access to high-data-rate, space-based, global access communications (complemented by effective but

ubiquitous terrestrial networks) is increasing and will likely see continued deployment of the so-called big LEO constellationmall communications satellites. The Internet is also going to space. The next utility, the global positioning systemGPS), has been less recognized but is more encompassing. It already precisely locates goods, services, and

people. However, as the GPS becomes the mainspring of an increasingly accurate global clock, commerce willdepend on it in invisible ways. As the means to provide nanosecond global accuracy, power andcommunications channels will come to depend on it implicitly in order to work. Other utilities, such as globalraffic management via space-based radar, are on the horizon. And, as noted above, we can look for energy grid

migrate to space in the next century.

C. Economic decline causes nuclear war.

Walter Mead, policy analyst, 1992, World Policy Institute

Hundreds of millions – billions – of people have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leadhave embraced market principles – and drawn closer to the west – because they believe that our system can work for them. Buwhat if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates – or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period ofnternational conflict: South against North, rich against poor, Russia, China, India – These countries with the

billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to the world order than Germaand Japan did in the 30s.

http://www.space.com/news/weaponized_space_040122.html

http://www.space.com/news/weaponized_space_040122.html




On Militarization #5 – Agreements

U.S. security has more to gain from not deploying space weapons. It allows cooperation from China overagreements.Blazejewski in 8. Kenneth S. Blazejewski, a JD/MPA joint degree student at NYU School of Law and the Woodrow WilsonSchool, Spring 2008, “Space Weaponization and US-China Relations,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, pg. 45-6

A second reason for US commitment not to place weapons in space is the negotiating leverage such a concessiowould provide. Of course, such leverage cannot be taken for granted. Rather, agreement not to weaponize outer space could

oosely conditional on making progress in other areas of US security. There are at least three areas where the UnitedStates could expect to gain concessions from China in return for a commitment not to weaponize space. FirstChina's participation at the CD strongly suggests that it might be willing to begin negotiations on an FMCT, a

ecurity priority of successive US governments, if the United States agrees to negotiate on space weapons. SinChina's commitment to the FMCT can facilitate the FMCT commitments of India and Pakistan, its participatios critical. Second, the United States can demand greater support from China on the Proliferation Security nitiative. The PSI, which seeks to prevent illicit sea and air transport of fissile material, has been identified by the Bushdministration as a key program in reducing the possibility of acquisition of nuclear weapons by a terrorist

organization. To date, China's muted opposition to the PSI stands as one of the greatest impediments to a fuller developmenhe initiative. Chinese cooperation could be vital to this program's success. Third, the United States should

demand greater transparency in Chinese military planning, especially with regard to ASAT and space-focuseprograms. Such transparency, long sought by US defense officials, would reduce the likelihood of potential conflictsover speculative intelligence and give the United States greater insight into how military decisions are made (and whetherChina indeed suffers from a stovepiped bureaucracy). I argue that progress in each of these three areas would represegreater security gain than proceeding with the weaponization of space. If the United States is able to negotiatquid pro quo in one or all of these areas in return for a commitment not to weaponize outer space, theagreement would represent a clear US net security gain.




On Militarization #5 – Proliferation

Space militarization increases nuclear proliferation

Karl P. Mueller, associate political scientist at RAND, 5/8/2002, Totem and Taboo: Depolarizing the Space WeaponizationDebate, http://www.gwu.edu/~spi/spaceforum/TotemandTabooGWUpaperRevised%5B1%5D.pdf Sanctuary internationalism also warns of potential coupling between space weaponization and nuclear instability, on severalevels. First, and perhaps least seriously in the current global environment, opponents of space-based ballistic missile defense, enerations of BMD critics before them, fear that such systems would weaken the deterrent potency of major power

econd-strike nuclear forces. Second, sanctuary advocates are concerned that anti-satellite warfare could contributenuclear instability by disabling space-based ballistic missile launch detection systems, reducing strategicwarning and potentially allowing states to launch missile attacks anonymously, and thus with hope of avoidin

etaliation. Third, they note that conventional space weapons, such as kinetic energy projectiles launched fromorbit, might have considerable utility in their own right as part of a first strike against an enemy’s nuclearcapabilities. Finally, they argue that space weaponization might encourage nuclear proliferation, since states fachreats from space weapons but lacking the ability to respond in kind or to neutralize the danger would be liko seek asymmetric means to shore up their security, among which the acquisition of nuclear weapons might

attractive.

Proliferation leads to extinction

Utgoff 2. Victor Utgoff, Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of Institute for Defense Analysis, Summe

02, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions”, Survival

The war between Iran and Iraq during the 1980s led to the use of chemical weapons on both sides and exchanges of missilesgainst each other’s cities. And more recently, violence in the Middle East escalated in a few months from rocks and small arm

heavy weapons on one side, and from police actions to air strikes and armoured attacks on the other. Escalation of violencelso basic human nature. Once the violence starts, retaliatory exchanges of violent acts can escalate to levels

unimagined by the participants before hand. Intense and blinding anger is a common response to fear or humiliation orbuse. And such anger can lead us to impose on our opponents whatever levels of violence are readily accessible. In sum,

widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-out with nuclear weapons, and that such shooouts will have a substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction possible with the weapons athand. Unless nuclear proliferation is stopped, we are headed toward a world that will mirror the American WWest of the late 1800s. With most, if not all, nations wearing nuclear ‘six-shooters’ on their hips, the world may even

more polite place than it is today, but every once in a while we will all gather on a hill to bury the bodies of dead citieor even whole nations.




2NR Impact Caclulus

Conventional warfare faster, easier and cheaper than space weapons

Frank G. Koltz, 1/99, “Space, Commerce, and National Security,” Washington, D.C.: Council on Foreign Relations, pg. 19Conventional military forces can also be employed to deny an adversary access to space goods and services. Aatellite is only one segment of the total system that is required to deliver space products and services. Equally important ar

ground-based antennas, control centers, relay stations, and distribution nodes. All of these segments can beargeted by familiar military tactics (e.g., bombing or missile attack), as well as emerging techniques popularly referred t

nformation or cyber-warfare. In addition, the headquarters and other facilities in which space products and services are actuaused by an adversary can also be attacked. In short, highly specialized weapons will not always be necessary to deny adversary the use of space. In many cases, it may be faster, easier, and cheaper to accomplish the same objectivusing forces that perform other functions closer to the Earth's surface.

Cphs Sbsp 2nc 8mincase Ext

Documents

Transcript of Cphs Sbsp 2nc 8mincase Ext