COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY silicon module (c-Si) Monocrystalline silicon module (c-Si) 多結晶系...

COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

再生可能エネルギーのコスト

COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY REvision 2013 – CREATING A NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE, TOKYO

26 FEBRUARY 2013

中村有吾 YUGO NAKAMURA

COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 2 / / / /

内容

1. 国内市場の状況 Japan market summary

2. コストの現状 Cost analysis

3. 日本の課題 Challenges Japan faces


政府の電源別2030年電力供給シナリオ (TWh)

Source: National Policy Unit(NPU) Note; GoJ’s scenario as of 29 June 2012. A conservative scenario assuming nuclear supplies 15% of power as of 2030. Hydro includes ‘pumped hydro’.

688527

288

147

89

118

25

191

2181,091

2010 2030

Energy savingNon-hydroHydroNuclearFossil

9822.3%8.2%

19.4%

12.0%


政府の電源別再生可能エネルギー導入シナリオ 2010年、2020年、2030年

Source: NPU, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: B&W=biomass and waste. 2010 B&W supply and capacity are

adjusted based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates. Hydro excludes ‘pumped hydro’.

Source: NPU, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: B&W=biomass and waste. 2010 B&W supply and capacity are

adjusted based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates. Hydro excludes ‘pumped hydro’.

再生可能エネルギーからの電力供給 (TWh) 再生可能エネルギー累計設置容量 (GW)

66

67

3

110

22

33

17

35

0

101

8

24

4

4

0

77

3

21

Wind

Solar

Marine

Hydro

Geothermal

B&W

201020202030

34.9

63.3

1.0

23.8

3.1

5.5

9.5

33.5

0.0

22.2

1.1

4.0

2.4

3.6

0.0

21.6

0.5

3.3

Wind

Solar

Marine

Hydro

Geothermal

B&W

201020202030

バイオマス・廃棄物

地熱

水力

海洋

太陽光

風力


日本の電力小売価格推移、1994-2011年度 (JPY/kWh)

Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (ANRE/METI) Note: Prices exclude consumption tax (5% as of February 2013)

24.8

21.319.4

16.817.2

14.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Residential

Commercial and industrial

Weighted average

1995:wholesale liberalization

2000:retail liberalisation (min. 2MW)

2005:retail liberalisation (min. 50kW)

電灯

電力

加重平均


電源別主な買取価格と小売価格、回避可能原価 (JPY/kWh)

Source: ANRE/METI Note: Consumption tax excluded. Tariffs apply for 15 years for geothermal, and 20 years for others.

13

17

24

32

39

26

40

24

40

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Residential

Commercial&residential

Residential

Commercial&residential

Avoidablecosts

バイオマス地熱水力太陽光風力

電灯

電力

回避可能原価


内容





前年同期比2013年第1四半期版平準化発電コスト ($/MWh)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Carbon forecasts from the Bloomberg New Energy Finance European Carbon Model with an average price to 2030 of $48/mt. Coal and natural gas prices from the US EIA and BNEF. Percentage change represents change from Q1 2012. 1USD=JPY 90

0 100 200 300 400 500

CHPCoal fired

Natural gas CCGTNuclear

Small hydroLarge hydro

Geothermal - flash plantWind - onshore

Municipal solid wasteLandfill gas

Biomass - incinerationGeothermal - binary plant

Biomass - gasificationPV - c-Si tracking

PV - thin filmBiomass - anaerobic digestion

PV - c-SiSTEG - tower & heliostat w/storage

STEG - parabolic troughWind - offshore

Fuel cellsSTEG - parabolic trough + storage

STEG - tower & heliostatSTEG - LFR

Marine - tidalMarine - wave

LCOE BNEF EU Carbon Forecast Q1 2013 Central Scenario Q1 2012 Central Scenario

-24%

-4%

-+17%

+5%-

+14%

-29%

-1%

-

-

$1,058 +9%$861 +10%

+2%+9%

-

+3%

+1%

-10%-28%

-

-

+6%

+2%

-14%

-

太陽光発電

陸上風力発電

JPY9/kWh JPY18/kWh JPY27/kWh JPY36/kWh JPY45/kWh


太陽光発電平準化発電コスト ($/MWh)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Prices are in nominal dollars. 1USD=JPY 90.

Thin film

c-Si

c-Si tracking

050

100150200250300350

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009 2010 2011 2012 2013

135.4

Q1 2013 12.2円/kWh


風力発電平準化発電コスト ($/MWh)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Prices are in nominal dollars. 1USD=JPY 90.

Onshore

Offshore

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009 2010 2011 2012 2013

81.4

217.8

陸上Q1 2013 7.3円/kWh

洋上Q1 2013 19.6円/kWh


2012年1月第1週-2013年1月第1週ソーラーグレードポリシリコン価格推移 ($/KG)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Solar grade polysilicon price. Dates represent first day of the week for which the price has been averaged, ie, 8 August represents quote for the week 8-14 August.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3502

Jan

16 J

an30

Jan

13 F

eb27

Feb

12 M

ar26

Mar

09 A

pr23

Apr

07 M

ay21

May

04 J

un18

Jun

02 J

ul16

Jul

30 J

ul13

Aug

27 A

ug10

Sep

24 S

ep08

Oct

22 O

ct05

Nov

19 N

ov03

Dec

17 D

ec31

Dec

2012 2013

China price International price

16.1


2012年1月第1週-2013年1月第1週シリコン系モジュール国際スポット価格推移 ($/W)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Dates represent first day of the week for which the price has been averaged, ie, 8 August represents quote for the week 8-14 August.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.202

Jan

16 J

an

30 J

an

13 F

eb

27 F

eb

12 M

ar

26 M

ar

09 A

pr

23 A

pr

07 M

ay

21 M

ay

04 J

un

18 J

un

02 J

ul

16 J

ul

30 J

ul

13 A

ug

27 A

ug

10 S

ep

24 S

ep

08 O

ct

22 O

ct

05 N

ov

19 N

ov

03 D

ec

17 D

ec

31 D

ec

2012 2013

Multicrystalline silicon module (c-Si) Monocrystalline silicon module (c-Si)

0.82 多結晶系

単結晶系


要素別発電事業規模太陽光発電設備コスト単価推移 2010年-2012年 ($/W)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 1USD=JPY 90

1.851.35

0.73

0.30

0.21

0.12

0.50

0.50

0.27

0.41

0.41

0.32

0.18

0.18

0.15

3.24

2.65

1.59

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012

OtherEPCBOPInverterModule

143千/kW

Utility-scale


要素別太陽光発電設備コスト単価推移 2010年-2012年

業務用規模($/W) 住宅用($/W)

2.411.76

0.91

0.41

0.28

0.26

0.67

0.68

0.65

0.64

0.63

0.60

0.52

0.81

0.52

4.64

4.16

2.95

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012


2.041.46

0.78

0.38

0.25

0.19

0.62

0.62

0.40

0.51

0.51

0.45

0.47

0.36

0.27

4.01

3.20

2.09

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012


Note: 1USD=JPY 90 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

188千/kW

266千/kW

Commercial-scale Residential-scale


内容





月別国内再生可能エネルギープロジェクト発表日2011年1月-2013年1月 (MW, プロジェクト数)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Data as of 12 February 2013. B&W=biomass and waste. Projects less than 1MW are not included. Projects without specific site information are not included.

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13

WindSolarHydroGeothermalB&W

Cumulative number of projects(right-axis)

Tohoku quake FiT bill passed

FiT launch

東日本大震災買取法成立

買取制度開始


住宅用太陽光システム価格と補助金対象限度額(JPY/W)

Source: J-PEC, ANRE/METI

Note: Red line represents system cost threshold for subsidy application. As of April 2012 national cash subsidy is JPY30/W for system up to JPY550/W. If the system cost is up to JPY475/W, extra JPY50/W shall be subsidised as well.

700650

600

475

550614561

518

455

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

限度額

システム価格

Residential-scale solar


日本・ドイツ・米カリフォルニア州小規模太陽光システム価格2008年第1四半期-2012年第4四半期 ($/W)

Source: BSW-Solar, California Solar Initiative filings, JPEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Average sub-10kW German system cost Average California residential system cost

Japanese residential system cost average Chinese multicrystalline silicon module price

日本カ州

ドイツ

モジュール

Small-scale solar


太陽光認定設備規模別コスト推移、2012年第3・4四半期(JPY/W)

Source: 21 January 2013, METI Note: Cost of FiT approved projects, 3Q-4Q 2012. 4Q 2012 excludes December.

Assumption used for 2012 rate

472

369319 325

437375

273 280

10-50kW 50-500kW 500-1,000kW 1MW+

3Q 2012 4Q 2012

Solar


太陽光システム単価と買取価格推計 (JPY/kWh, JPY/W)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Project IRR=6%. Bloomberg New Energy Finance has modeled tariff pricing based on assumptions the pricing committee uses.

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350

35.2

Solar


現行買取価格における太陽光システム単価・土地リース単価の変化とプロジェクトIRR (%, JPY/M2・YEAR)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: Bloomberg New Energy Finance has modeled tariff pricing based on assumptions the pricing committee uses. Vertical axis represents target project IRRs. Horizontal axis represents leasing cost per square meter.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

JPY325/W

JPY273/W

Solar


COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER

This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be

photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any

way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are

reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be

construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of

the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New

Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions

presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising

from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of

financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or

whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.

/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your

decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets

[email protected]

MARKETS Renewable Energy

Carbon Markets

Energy Smart Technologies

Renewable Energy Certificates

Carbon Capture & Storage

Power

Water

Nuclear

SERVICES Insight: research, analysis & forecasting Industry Intelligence: data & analytics News & Briefing: daily, weekly & monthly Applied Research: custom research & data mining Knowledge Services: Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops

再生可能エネルギーのコスト

COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY 中村有吾 YUGO NAKAMURA, [email protected]

COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY silicon module (c-Si) Monocrystalline silicon module (c-Si) 多結晶系...

Documents

Transcript of COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY silicon module (c-Si) Monocrystalline silicon module (c-Si) 多結晶系...