Converting science into public policy - Matatā...

www.Whakatāne .govt.nz

Converting science into public

policy - Matatā debris flow case

study

Australasian Natural Hazards Conference 2017

Jeff Farrell


WHAKATĀNE


Matatā

Whakatāne

White

Island


Awatarariki Catchment,

Matatā

4


5


7

www.Whakatāne .govt.nz 8


An Engineering Solution for the

Awatarariki


Engineering Planning

10


Landslide Risk

Management

• Systems

– AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009

– AGS (2007)

– Other Systems

• Management options

– Hazard avoidance

– Hazard elimination

– Hazard reduction

– Monitoring 11


Hazard Assessment


Risk Assessment (Annual loss

of life)

13


F-N Curve Awatarariki

Fanhead

14

1.00E-08

1.00E-07

1.00E-06

1.00E-05

1.00E-04

1.00E-03

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0

Current Density Future Density

Unacceptable

Tolerable, if as low as reasonably practical (ALARP)

Broadly Acceptable


11 Workstreams

16


Better Business Case - 5

lenses

Strategic

Economic

Commercial Financial

Management

Is there a compelling case

for change?

Does the

recommended

option optimise

public value?

Is the

proposed deal

achievable &

attractive in

the market

place?

How will the

proposal

be successfully

delivered?

Is the spending

proposal

affordable?


Primary BBC Focus

To prevent an inevitable

and predictable disaster


Investment objectives

1. Protect the life safety of residents;

2. Create certainty for property owners and for the Matatā community;

3. Increase community resilience.


Transferable Funding Framework

Criteria

TA/Regional Council/Government are potential funding partners

• Risks to human life from the hazard are accepted as being unacceptable; and

• No viable alternative life-risk-reduction strategies available (such as warning and evacuation and/or construction of mitigation measures), and

• Costs to manage the risk are beyond the fiscal capability of the local authority to manage.

20


Policy Framework

• Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

• Local Government Act

• Resource Management Act

• Regional Policy Statement

• Regional Plans

• District Plans

21


BOPRC Regional Policy

Statement


Regional Policy Statement

(RPS)

• Roles and responsibilities (landuse control) –Objectives, policies and methods - shared

– District councils: rules to control landuse and subdivision for avoidance of natural hazards

–Regional Council: rules for addressing existing land uses subject to natural hazards

• Risk Assessment Methodology (and approved alternatives)

23


High, Medium & Low Debris

Flow Risk Areas

24

Replace Map


Awatarariki Risk Reduction

Options

• Engineering solution X

• Early warning system X

• Planning solution √

25


District Plan Change

• Change zoning from ‘Residential’ to ‘Coastal Protection’

• Life safety focus

• Gives effect to the RPS

26


Regional Plan Change

Initiated by Whakatāne District Council • Gives effect to the RPS • Risk reduction required • Only viable risk reduction solution is retreat • Strong evidence base using RPS assessment

methodology • A new rule in a Regional Plan • Extinguish existing land uses in high debris

flow risk area

27


Commitment Pathway

28

Commitmen

t

Understandi

ng Information

Awareness Ignorance


Main Technical Challenges

• Lack of national guidance on levels of risk

• Limitations of modelling for long

recurrence interval natural hazard events

• Cost benefit analyses have significant

limitations

• Qualitative analysis using MCA

29


Main Political Challenges

• Funding

• Precedence - accepting responsibility

• Commitment to a decision

• Accepting the science

30


Key Lessons

• Proactive DRR preferable approach • Reactive - get in early (i.e. as soon as possible after

event) • Involve the community • Robust analysis • Plain language– catchy, key messages • Use diagrams and pictures • Present information in multiple ways • Storey telling • Personalise the issue

31


Communicating Risk in the

Future

32


Natural Hazard Virtual

Reality

33


Acknowledgements

• Kevin Hind - Tonkin and Taylor Ltd

• Tim Davies - University of Canterbury

• Maurie McSaveney, Nicola Litchfield, and Chris Massey - GNS Science

• Craig Batchelar - Boffa Miskell Ltd

• Andrew Green - Brookfields

• Colleagues at the Whakatāne District Council and Bay of Plenty Regional Council

34


Kia ora tātou

www.whakatane.govt.nz

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