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Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Policies Associated With New Passenger Vehicle CO2 Emissions, and Implications for China!鼓励车辆节油和CO2减排的财税政策比较，及对中国的思考

Vehicle Fuel Consumption Regulation and Fiscal Policy Workshop Beijing, April 14-15

Hui He 何卉

Examples of integrated approach around the world!国际上对车辆节能采取综合政策的案例

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Country/ Region 国家／地区

Vehicle Efficiency/GHG Standards

车辆能耗标准法规 Fuel

carbon Standard 低碳燃油标准

Complementary policies 辅助政策

Other innovative or

local measures 其他创新手段

Cars 乘用车

Light commerci

al 轻型商用车

Heavy trucks 重型商用车

Labels 能耗标识

Vehicle Fiscal

policies 车辆财税

High fuel tax 高燃油税

European Union 欧盟

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Low emission zones linked to CO2 emissions performance

United States 美国

✓ ✓ ✓ * ✓ ✓ ✓ Pay as you go insurance

Japan 日本 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

China 中国 ✓ ✓ ✓

California 美国加州 ✓ ✓

require aero

and tire

✓ ✓

EV incentiv

es, hybrid trucks

Zero emission vehicle purchase mandates, VMT target

* Final rule to be released in July

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Role of fiscal policies!财税政策在节能减排上的作用

  Encourage manufacturers to adopt technologies to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions

  Send consumers appropriate price signal to purchase fuel-efficient and low carbon vehicles

  Support fuel efficiency and emission regulatory targets

–  Regulatory standards need to be strengthened overtime

–  Fiscal policies provide continuous incentive to improve

–  Fiscal policies are easy to establish

  鼓励汽车生产商开发和采用更节能更清洁的新技术�

  对消费者传递正确的价格信号，以引导他们选择低排放，高能效的产品�

  作为节油减排标准法规的达标辅助手段�

– 标准法规需要不断加严也达到持续地鼓励节能减排�

– 财税政策可提供持续的经济激励�

– 财税政策制定时不需要了解详细的技术、成本等信息，制定起来相对容易�

Why fiscal policies - efficiency technologies cost!为什么需要财税政策 ‐ 节能技术有成本

  US EPA’s OMEGA model used many technology packages, 19 vehicle classes to evaluate scenarios

  Increasing costs from incremental efficiency, to hybrid, and to electric technology

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Baseline Subcompact car (1.5L 4V DOHC I4)!

Turbocharging

Tires Aerodynamics

Direct injection Dual-clutch

Gasoline efficiency

Variable valve lift/lift Advanced materials/designs

6+ speed

Stop-start

Hybrid Regenerative braking Motor-assist Optimization

Plug-in hybrids

PHEV20 Grid-charging

PHEV40

Electric

EV75

EV150

EV100

Data source: US EPA joint agency Technology Assessment Report for the Notice of Intent of 2017-2025 light-duty vehicle standards

Reduction from 2008 baseline car

  美国环保署用OMEGA模型分析了19类车型的技术包裹及其成本�

  从传统燃油车辆的能效技术改进，到混合动力到电动技术的应用成本不断增加�

基准车型是紧凑型乘用车（1.5L, 4V, DOHC)�

车辆价格的增量$�

相对基准车型的油耗或CO2减少量�

  Economic downturn   Consumer expectation of significant increase of

Excise tax for such vehicles in the near future   经济危机   消费者预期大排量车消费税增加

  Economic downturn continued   Excise tax indexed by engine size – Sept 2008   Halved Acquisition tax for 1.6L or below   经济危机仍未消退   消费税调整，进一步加大大排量车税赋   1.6升以下购置税减半

  Economy reviving led to growth among all sectors.   Favorable policies for small vehicles phasing out

  经济复苏，各类型车辆销售回升   对小排量车的优惠政策减退

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!1" 1~1.6"1.6~2"2~2.5"2.5~3" 3~4" >4"

2007 ~ 08

2008 ~ 09

2009 1st Half ~

2010 1st Half

Data source: China Automotive Industry Yearbook 2010

Evidence in China: New vehicles sales growth pattern changed dramatically during past few years due to various fiscal

incentives!中国过去几年汽车财税政策引起不同排量新车销售增长率的变化!

The ICCT studies on world’s vehicle fiscal policies and feebate programs!

ICCT对各国轻型车财税政策和奖惩体系的研究报告

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Available: http://www.theicct.org/tag/fiscal-policy/

Scope: One time and annual tax on new cars in 8 leading auto markets 研究范围：8个主要汽车生产国对新轻型车购买和保有阶段实施的税费

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Incidence频率

Direct CO2 Measures

直接激励政策

Attribute-Based CO2-Related

Measures基于车辆属性的激励政策

Targeted Incentives针对先进技术车辆的政策

One time一次性

First year registration tax首次注册税

— —

Annual年度

Excise duty based on CO2 for regular cars and AFVsCO2消费税

— —

United StatesOne time一次性

Gas-guzzler tax油老虎税

—Tax credits for HEVs and AFVs 混合动力和替代燃料车抵税

One time一次性

Bonus-malus (feebate)

based on CO2 for regular cars and AFVsCO2奖惩税

Registration tax based on fiscal horsepower, reduced rates on AFVs基于财政马力的注册税

—

Annual年度

Annual tax on high CO2

cars对高排放车罚税

— —

GermanyAnnual年度

Annual circulation tax

component based on CO2 CO2年度税（部分）

Annual circulation tax component based on engine size发动机排量年度税（部分）

Exemption for BEVs 电动车免税

Nation国家

United Kingdom

France

Scope: One time and annual tax on new cars in 8 leading auto markets 研究范围：8个主要汽车生产国对新轻型车购买和保有阶段实施的税费 （续）

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Incidence Direct CO2 MeasuresAttribute-Based CO2-Related

MeasuresTargeted Incentives

频率 直接激励政策 基于车辆属性的激励政策 针对先进技术车辆的政策

BrazilOne time一次性

—Registration tax based on engine size发动机排量注册税

—

Excise duty based on engine size

Acquisition tax based on engine size发动机排量消费税、购置税

Excise tax based on vehicle classes

Special duty based on engine size车辆种类消费税、发动机排量特殊消费税

One time一次性

—Acquisition tax based on engine size, reduced rates for special vehicles发动机排量购置税

Exemption for next-generation vehicles下世代车免税

Tonnage tax based on weight, reduced rates for special vehiclesa

Auto tax based on engine size, reduced rates for special vehicles and next-generation vehicles重量税、发动机排量汽车税

Nation

国家

JapanAnnual年度

—

Exemption for next-

generation vehiclesb

下世代车辆免税

ChinaOne time一次性

— —

IndiaOne time一次性

—

Lower tax rate for HEVs and zero tax for BEVs 混合动力减税

电动车免税

Methodology in a snapshot 研究方法简介

  Analyze each country’s whole policy package over the CO2 basis

  Equivalent marginal CO2 rate describes the lifetime (12 yrs, 5% discount rate) price signal given to each unit of CO2 increase from cars – US$/(gCO2/km)

  Direct CO2/fuel economy measures : linear regression of bin-based policy

  Indirect measures: using statistical correlation to convert attribute-based policy components to CO2 basis equivalency

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Equiv. CO2 Rate = 24.2(gCO2/km) - 6081.5!

-$2,000!

$0!

$2,000!

$4,000!

$6,000!

$8,000!

0! 50! 100! 150! 200! 250! 300! 350! 400! 450! 500! 550! 600!

Ga

s-g

uzzle

r ta

x in

US

$!

gCO2/km (NEDC cycle)!

  将每个国家各项相关政策作为一个整体分析，每个国家减排价格信号由边际CO2收费来表达，即美元／（克／公里CO2）�

  对于直接基于CO2或燃油经济性的政策，仅进行线性回归即可获得其减排价格信号�

  对于基于车辆属性的政策，需以属性与CO2之间的统计学关系式进行折算�

Comparison of Price Signal and Policy Design!各国政策价格信号和设计要素比较

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Implied Price Signal Policy Policy If Applied If Incentive CO2-basedUS$/(gCO2/km) Structure Type Fleetwide Continuous Target Incen.

等价价格信号 征税依据 政策类型是否作用整

体车队

激励是否连

续

特殊激励是

否基于CO2

Engine size 发动机排量

Indirect间接

Yes是

No否

No否

Engine size, weight发动机排量、重量

Indirect间接

Yes是

Partial不完全是

Partial不完全是

CO2Direct直接

Partial不完全是

No否

Yes是

CO2, Engine sizeCO2、发动机排量

Mixed混合

Yes是

Yes是

Yes是

Engine size, category发动机排量、类别

Indirect间接

Yes是

No否

Partial不完全是

CO2, HorsepowerCO2、马力

Mixed混合

Yes是

No否

Yes是

CO2, Engine sizeCO2、发动机排量

Mixed混合

Yes是

Yes是

Yes是

Fuel economy燃油经济性

Direct直接

No否

No否

Partial不完全是

53!

44!

41!

36!

33!

29!

27!

24!

Comparison of overall policy efficiency!整体政策效率比较

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98%!93%!

90%!85%!

82%!

65%!

48%!

20%!

0%!

20%!

40%!

60%!

80%!

100%!

Germany P

!

Germany D

!UK!

Japan!

France!

China!India! US!

Po

lic

y E

ffic

ien

cy!

$- !

$2 !

$4 !

$6 !

$8 !

$10 !

100! 150! 200! 250! 300!

Life

time

Equ

ival

ent

CO

2 Ta

x! (t

hous

and

US

$)!

gCO2/km (NEDC cycle)!

•  The policy efficiency ratio measures the degree to which the current fiscal measures in general mimic a revenue-neutral, continuous CO2-based incentive.

•  Illustrates the potential of each country to fully take advantage of its current fiscal policy scheme to encourage low CO2 emission vehicles.

R =1!|T !TCO2 |"|T |"

•  政策效率比值衡量的是现行政策趋近于连续的、财政收入不变的、基于CO2的直接激励政策的程度�

•  大致表达了一个国家的汽车财税政策收入中有多少是作用于鼓励车辆CO2减排（节油）的�

Design Principles!政策设计要素

  Taxes and incentives should be directly linked to vehicle CO2 emissions or other linear fuel efficiency metrics.

  The policy should apply to the entire vehicle fleet, not a subset.

  Benefits and penalties should be calculated continuously across the spectrum of CO2 emissions, rather than in a stepwise or bin-based fashion.

  Targeted incentives for alternative fuels or vehicles should be linked to vehicle CO2 performance.

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  税费应与CO2排放水平直接挂钩，而不是基于机动车的物理属性，税费不宜取固定值�

  激励效应应覆盖整个车型分布范围，而不是局限于其中一部分�

  激励政策应对车队的各个燃油油耗水平或CO2排放提供连续的激励。�

  针对特殊车辆的刺激政策也应与CO2排放直接挂钩。�

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Policies based on attribute cannot provide as effective incentive as CO2-based policies!

基于车辆属性的财税政策很难达到直接基于CO2或油耗的激励政策的效果

  Though engine size and other vehicle attributes correlates to fuel consumption/CO2 currently, there’re significant variations

  Introduction of future technologies will further disconnect such relations

  Shifting from attribute basis to fuel consumption/CO2 does not require dramatic change in overall revenue

  虽然目前一些车辆属性大体上与油耗或CO2排放量相关，这种关系具体到每个车型差异很大�

  新技术的引入会进一步淡化这种相关性�  将基于车辆属性的财税政策转变成直接基于油耗或CO2排放量，不一定引起财政收入的大幅变化�

China’s policies have improved in the past few years in correcting price signal for efficient vehicles!

中国的汽车财税政策在过去几年中不断调整以发挥更大的鼓励车辆节能的作用!

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Top selling sample models Car A: 1.5L 6.5L/100km $12700

Car B: 2L 8.7L/100km $13150 Car C: 2L 8.5L/100km $29250

SUV A: 2L 9.9L/100km $28670

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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以市场上高销量的典型车型举例

But, Compared to the displacement-based policies, setting incentives by fuel efficiency can further reward efficient vehicles!

但如直接基于车辆油耗征收汽车税比基于发动机排量能有效地鼓励节能

15 Fuel consumption tax

油耗税 Engine displacement tax

发动机排量税

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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More importantly, future efficiency technologies will further disconnect the traditional link between vehicle attributes and fuel efficiency!

更重要的是，未来的车辆节能技术会进一步淡化车辆属性和能耗(CO2排放量）的关系，使用车辆属性作为定税依据更不能有效鼓励节能技术的应用

16 a Many technologies can be combined, percents are approximate but not strictly additive; from US EPA, 2010 b From US EPA, 2009 “Trends” report

Area Technology or efficiency mechanism for CO2 reduction

Potential CO2 reductiona

减排潜力

U.S. adoption in new 2008 fleet b

2008年美国车队技术使用情况

Variable valve timing or lift VVT 2-8% 53% Cylinder deactivation 断缸 3-6% 6% Turbocharging 涡轮增压 2-5% 2% Engine Gasoline direct injection 汽油直喷技术 8-15% 4% Powertrain 发动机 Compression ignition diesel 柴油压燃 15-40% 0.1% 传动系统 Digital valve actuation 数字阀控传动� 5-10% 0% 6+ speed 6速以上变速器 3-5% 21% Transmission Continuously variable 无极变速 4-6% 8%

变速器 Dual-clutch, automated manual 手自双模 4-8% 1%

Aerodynamics 改进空气动力设计 5-8% - Tire rolling resistance 改进轮胎滚动阻力 2-8% -

More efficient auxiliaries (steering, air conditioning) 适用效率更高的附件（转向系统、空调） 2-10% -

Vehicle Mass-reduction 减重

Advanced materials (10-20%) 先进材料 5-10% -

车身 Integrated vehicle design (15-30%) 综合车体设计改进 10-20% -

Hybrid systems 混合动力

Stop-start mild hybrid stop-start弱混 5-10% <1% Full hybrid electric system 全混合动力 20-50% 2% Electric-drive

电动 Plug-in capable electric vehicles 插入式 30-75% 0%

Fuel cell vehicles 燃料电池 30-75% 0%

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Policies only covering partial segments of fleet cannot realize full potential of reducing emissions from all vehicles !

只作用于部分车队的激励政策无法有效实现全体车队的减排

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Non-continuous policies provide no Incentive within a bin and create “corner effect”!

分段式的激励政策在每段内激励作用有限，并会导致“拐角效应”!

$- !

$1,000 !

$2,000 !

$3,000 !

$4,000 !

$5,000 !

$6,000 !

50! 100! 150! 200! 250! 300! 350!

Lif

eti

me

CO

2 t

ax in

US

$!

gCO2/km (NEDC cycle)!

A B

As shown in the above example, as vehicle CO2 emission increases from A to B, incentive does not change. 在最后一段CO2排放量分段内，排放较少的A车与排放较大的B车交税上无差别�

Targeted Incentives Linked Partially to CO2 May Provide Mixed Price Signal !

针对先进技术车辆的特殊激励如不直接与油耗或CO2排放水平挂钩会导致节油或减排价格信号不明确

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$0!

$900!

$1,800!

$2,700!

$3,600!

$4,500!

100! 140! 180! 220! 260! 300!

Tax C

red

its in

US

$!

g CO2/km (NEDC cycle)!

Escape Hybrid!

Sierra Hybrid!

Civic Hybrid!

Aura Hybrid!

Data source: IRS, www.fueleconomy.gov

Findings and Recommendations!研究结论和建议

  Countries are increasingly using direct CO2-based fiscal policies to help achieve vehicle CO2 standards

  Both stringency and design structure determine the potential effectiveness of fiscal policies

  We provided a set of recommended design principles including shifting from attribute taxes to CO2 based incentives

–  Attribute taxes cannot serve effectively as CO2 reduction incentives

–  Future efficiency technologies will further disconnect the traditional relations between vehicle attributes and CO2

  Such reforms do not require significant change in the revenue stream.

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  越来越多的国家正采用直接与CO2排放或燃油经济性挂钩的财税政策鼓励车辆节油减排�

  财税激励政策的激励力度（价格信号）和设计结构都对最终的激励效果有很大影响�

  我们总结了一套财税政策设计要素，包括将基于车辆属性的激励措施改为直接以油耗或CO2排放为依据�

– 基于车辆属性的政策在鼓励节能上无法象直接基于油耗的政策一样有效�

– 未来的车辆节能技术会进一步淡化车辆属性和能耗(CO2排放量）的关系�

  设计结构的改变并不一定引起财政收入的显著变化，税率的决定可以以一定的财政收入目标为前提�

For China’s consideration 以下问题供中国思考

  An integrated approach to reduce fuel consumption?

  Shift to fuel consumption based, even CO2 based?

  Combine fees and rebates into a full-scale feebate system?

  Disconnect from vehicle price, since new technologies cost?

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  是否采用一整套综合政策措施来鼓励车辆节能减排？�

  是否转变为直接以油耗为依据制定财税政策？�

  是否将现行的税收和补贴政策结合，并在此基础上演化成完善的奖惩体系？�

  是否考虑和车辆价格脱钩(因为新技术的采用有成本，会反应在价格中）？�

Thank you!!谢谢!!

www.theicct.org!hui@theicct.org

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