Co Hoi Dau Tu 6 Thang Cuoi 2015
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Transcript of Co Hoi Dau Tu 6 Thang Cuoi 2015
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C HI U T 6 THNG CUI 2015
-
TR LI 2 VN CHNH
1. Thu nhp doanh nghip
2. Cc lung tin
1. Kinh t v m, nhn t tch cc
2. Kinh t v m, nhn t nguy c
3. Kt qu kinh doanh doanh nghip thi gian qua
4. Mc nh gi th trng VN so vi th gii
5. Khuyn ngh c phiu
-
V M
Nhn t tch cc
-
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
T
ng
tr
n
g s
o v
i
c
ng
k
Tng trng GDP
2012
2013
2014
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
T
ng
tr
n
g s
o v
i
c
ng
k
Tng trng GDP
2012
2013
2014
2015
TNG TRNG GDP
-
TNG TRNG GDP
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
GDP Nng, lm nghip v thu sn
Cng nghip v
xy dng
Dch v
Tng trng GDP theo khu vc kinh t
6T2013
6T2014
6T2015
-
TNG TRNG DOANH THU BN L
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12
Tng trng Doanh thu bn l thc ly k
2013
2014
2015
-
CPI
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
T1/11 T1/12 T1/13 T1/14 T1/15
CPI/cng k nm trc
-
TN DNG TNG TRNG TR LI
5.26%
6.37%
2.03%
4.58%5.09%
6.28%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Tng trng huy ng
Tng phng tin thanh ton
Tng trng tn dng
Tng trng huy ng, tng phng tin thanh ton v tn dng
T6/14
T6/15
-
D TR NGOI HI CAO, CC TNG TH TT
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
D tr ngoi hi (T USD)
-
PMI
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Jun/12 Dec/12 Jun/13 Dec/13 Jun/14 Dec/14 Jun/15
Ch s PMI ngnh sn xut Vit Nam(50 = khng thay i so vi thng trc)
T9-2013
-
V M
Nhn t nguy c
-
THM HT THNG MI
-20,000
-16,000
-12,000
-8,000
-4,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
Xut nhp khu (Tr USD)
Xut khu (Tr USD)
Nhp khu (Tr USD)
XK-NK
-
THM HT THNG MI
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12
XK-NK ly k, theo s liu hng thng GSO (Tr USD)
2015
2014
-
TH TRNG TIN T
20,400
20,600
20,800
21,000
21,200
21,400
21,600
21,800
22,000
T3/12 T3/13 T3/14 T3/15
Din bin t gi
BQ lin NH
TT t do
-
TIM N NGUY C TNG LI SUT
2.0%
6.0%
10.0%
14.0%T1/1
0
T1/1
1
T1/1
2
T1/1
3
T1/1
4
T1/1
5
Yield tri phiu chnh ph cc k hn
2 nm
5 nm
10 nm
-
NGUY C LM PHT CHI PH Y
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
Tng trng gi tng nhm hng ha
Lng thc
Thc phm
n ung ngoi g
Hng n & dv n ung
ung thuc l
May mc, giy dp, m nn
Nh & VLXD
Thit b & ng dng g
Thuc & dch v y t
Giao thng
Bu chnh vin thng
Gio dc
Vn ha, gii tr, du lch
dng & dch v khc
-
TNG KT PHN V M
V m
GDP
Doanh thubn l
CPI
Tn dng
D tr ngoihi
PMI
TPP
Thm ht TM
T gi
Li sut
Chi ph uvo
-
KQKD DOANH NGHIP
Xc nhn li din bin
v m
-
KQKD
14%17%
-7%
21%
7%
26%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Doanh thu Li gp Chi Ph Tichnh
Chi ph BnHng
Chi ph qun l
Li nhun sau thu
Bin ng kt qu kinh doanh 2014 vs 2013
-
KQKD
8%5%
29%
19%
9%
-1%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Doanh thu thun
Li nhun gp
Chi ph tichnh
Chi ph bnhng
Chi ph qun l
Li nhun sau thu
Bin ng kt qu kinh doanh qu 1/2015
-
Chng khon VN
T/R?
-
2012 2013 2014 2015
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
HOP LY
RE
RAT RE
DAT
RAT DAT
PEHSX (13.9300, 14.0400, 13.9300, 14.0400, +0.31000)
LCH S P/E HSX
-
P/E HSX so vi CC TH TRNG KHC
0
5
10
15
20
25 P/E
01/01/14
20/06/14
31/12/14
0
5
10
15
20
25 P/E
01/01/14
20/06/14
31/12/14
07/07/15
-
TM L
v
HNH NG
-
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun JulUindex, Dindex
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000Moving Average (13,822.15), Moving Average (7,406.08)(Dindex)
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
x10000 5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
x10000
Volume (167,953,856)(VNINDEX)
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Rational
Fear
Loathing
Greed
#FormulaError#269, Moving Average (50.8829)(UDIndex)
-
GIAO DCH NH U T NC NGOI
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015
Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t )
-
GIAO DCH NH U T NC NGOI
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015
Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t ) Share out VNM ETF_phi (triu)
-
GIAO DCH NH U T NC NGOI
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015
Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t )
-
GIAO DCH NTNN vs VNINDEX
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015
Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t ) VNINDEX_phi
-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
y/y=16%
Dinh cao nhat co the dat
cua VNIndex dot nay = 685
Khi do P/E HSX = 15.3
VNINDEX (618.750, 633.730, 618.650, 625.220, +8.78998)
KH NNG LEO DC VNINDEX
-
KHUYN NGH
U T
-
L THUYT CHU K
-
L THUYT CHU K
Mc tng/gim nhm c phiu trong tng thi k.
-
TNG TRNG NHM NGNH 6 THNG QUA
-55.0%
-35.0%
-15.0%
5.0%
25.0%
45.0%
65.0%
Dc
h v
lu t
r &
gi
i tr
SX D
c
phm
CN
TT -
Truy
n t
hng
SX N
ng L
m
Ng
SX N
ha -
Ho c
ht
SX T
hu
sn
SX H
ng g
ia d
ng
DV C
huy
n m
n -
KH
&
SX T
n t
hp
Ti
n ch
cng c
ng
Khai khong
SX C
ao s
u
SX T
hi
t b i
n -
i
n
Vn t
i
Xy
dng
SX V
t
liu x
y
dng
Bt
ng s
n
Bo h
im
Thng m
i
SX T
hc
phm
-
SX C
k
h
Chng k
hon
Ngn h
ng
So vi thng trc So vi u nm
-
CP QUAN TM THEO L THUYT CHU K
Sector Ticker Sector Ticker Sector Ticker
Financials
VIC
Consumer Discretionary
(tiu dngkhng thit
yu)
FPT
Industrial Sector
HT1
HAG MWG BCC
KBC PET TTF
ITA TCM HPG
SSI TNG HSG
HCM HHS VCG
VND TMT CTD
KLS SVC HBC
BVH DQC CII
BIC
Technology Sector
ELC HUT
BMI CMG
PVI GLT
VCB ITD
CTG
BID
STB
MBB
EIB
ACB
-
CP QUAN TM THEO ROOM NGOI
NGH NH 60
T l s hu nc ngoi ti cng ty ichng ph thuc vo (i) iu c quct m Vit Nam l thnh vin, (ii) Phplut v u t lin quan, hoc (iii) Nukhng thuc cc trng hp trn th tl s hu l KHNG HN CH trtrng hp iu l cng ty quy nhkhc.
Hin vn cha c thng t hng dn
TC NG CA NGH NH 60
K vng tng gi ngn hn chonhng c phiu c ni room.
-
CP QUAN TM THEO ROOM NGOI
M%Roomcn li
REE 0.00%
PVI 0.00%
GMD 0.00%
BMP 0.00%
KDH 0.00%
NLG 0.00%
ST8 0.00%
PCG 0.00%
SAV 0.00%
ACB 0.00%
VNM 0.00%
MBB 0.00%
M%Roomcn li
MWG 0.00%
FPT 0.00%
DHG 0.00%
CTD 0.00%
VNS 0.00%
HCM 0.00%
FCN 0.00%
TCM 0.00%
IMP 0.00%
EVE 0.00%
DMC 0.00%
VSC 0.00%
M%Roomcn li
BBC 0.02%
PNJ 0.03%
ASP 0.08%
SII 0.08%
JVC 0.09%
TCR 0.21%
CTG 0.39%
NVT 0.42%
RIC 0.51%
PNC 0.57%
TDH 0.90%
*Cc c phiu c %Room nc ngoi cn li di 1%.
-
CP THA L THUYT CHU K V ROOM
ACB
CTG
MBB
HCM
PVI
TCM
FPT
MWG
CTD
-
VHC
FMC
TCM
VSC
-
CP QUAN TM THEO DT TP TRUNG QU 2
Tiu ch sng lc:
- Ma v: T trng doanh thu v/hoc li nhun qu 2 ng gp cao
trong c nm (trung bnh giai on 2011-2014).
- Thanh khon khng qu thp.
- Hot ng kinh doanh: n nh hoc k vng tng trng.
STT M NgnhMav
KLGD TB 1 thng
+/- % DTT
+/- % LNST
T l TH/KH
1 DHP Thit b in 47% 22,534 127.4% -12.6% 25%
2 HJS Thy in 32% 12,485 36.4% 87.4% 18%
3 DHA VLXD & Ni tht 28% 58,428 18.1% 695.0% 32%
4 DRC Lp xe 27% 47,691 13.0% 2.1% 25%
5 HSG Thp & Sn phm thp 26% 196,248 30.3% 70.4% 19%
* Ma v: T trng doanh thu/li nhun qu 2 trn c nm (trung bnh t nm 2011-2014).
* +/-% DTT, +/-% LNST: Tng trng doanh thu thun v Li nhun rng Q1/2015 so vi cng k nm trc
* T l TH/KH: Li nhun rng Q1/2015 so vi k hoch c nm.
-
CP U T LU DI
Ngoi nhng c phiu m chng ti phn tch v tip tc duy tr
khuyn ngh tch cc nh DHC, CVT, GDT, LSS, chng ti gii thiu mt
c phiu mi, c phiu VHL ca Cng ty Viglacera H Long
VHL:
- Cng ty sn xut gch ngi nung ln nht trn sn
- Hng li nh ngnh xy dng ang tng trng tt
- C li th quy m ln v ngun nguyn liu di do
- a vo nh my gch clinker mi trong 2015
- C cu sn phm ang thay i theo hng nng sn phm c bin
li nhun cao.
(Bo co y v VHL s c VFS Research gi n qu nh u t trong
vi ngy ti).
-
THANK YOUHunh Ngc ThngTrng Phng Phn tch u [email protected]
Nguyn Vn TinChuyn vin Phn tch Cao [email protected]
Nguyn Ngc ThnhChuyn vin Phn tch k [email protected]
Phan Minh cChuyn vin Phn tch Cao [email protected]
Nguyn Trnh Ngc ThyChuyn vin Phn [email protected]