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Cn cn vng lai thm ht n mc no th tr nn nguy him?

Chu Vn Thnh

Mt ln trn ging ng ti nghe sinh vin hi ging vin ca mnh rng Cn cn vng lai (CA)

thm ht n mc no th tr nn nguy him?. Cu hi ny tng chng nh n gin nhng

li rt phc tp c v l thuyt v thc tin. Cho n hin nay vn cn nhiu cch thc tr li

khc nhau. Giai on sau khng hong n chu M La tinh thp nin 1980 v sau cuc khng

hong Ti chnh chu 1997, cu tr li thng l khi mc thm ht CA trn 5% GDP th c vn

. Thc ra, cu hi i km nn l Cn cn vng lai thm ht l tt hay xu?. Trc tin,

chng ta hy tm hiu xem CA l g v ch tiu ny lin h nh th no vi nn kinh t v m m

chng ta ang quan tm.

Cn cn vng lai l g?

Cn cn vng lai c 4 cch nh ngha khc nhau. Th nht, cn cn hng ha v dch v bn v

mua vi phn cn li ca th gii (ROW); CA bao gm cn cn thng mi (hay xut khu tr

nhp khu hng ha v dch v) v cc khon thu nhp rng t nc ngoi (nh tin li v c

tc) cng vi cc khon chuyn nhng rng t nc ngoi (nh vin tr nc ngoi)1. Th

hai, cn cn gia thu nhp v chi tiu ca mt nn kinh t; thu nhp y chnh l thu nhp

kh dng ca quc gia v chi tiu bao gm chi tiu tiu dng ca h gia nh, u t ca doanh

nghip v chi mua hng ha v dch v ca chnh ph . Th ba, cn cn gia tit kim quc gia

(bao gm t nhn v chnh ph) v u t ni a ca quc gia . Cui cng, cn cn gia cho

vay v i vay t ROW, cc dng vn ny c th k n nh l FDI, FPI v cc khon vay.

Khi CA thm ht, chng ta c th hiu rng l tnh trng: (1) t nc ny mua hng ha v

dch v t ROW nhiu hn n bn ra ROW; (2) nn kinh t chi tiu nhiu hn thu nhp to ra

trong nm; (3) Cc khon u t ln hn tit kim ca chnh nn kinh t ; v (4) chng ta s

t hi rng t nc ny ly u ra tin mua hng ha v dch v nhiu hn bn ra ROW;

hay tin u m chi tiu nhiu hn thu nhp; hay ly ngun u ra u t nhiu hn tit

kim. Tt c s dn chng ta n cng mt cu tr li: t nc ny ang phi i vay nhiu hn

l n cho vay ra ROW.

1 Hin nay, Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) bt u p dng cch trnh by mi v Cn cn Thanh ton (BOP) theo

hng dn xut bn mi nht (BPM6 2009). Cc khon mc ca Ti khon Vng lai (CA) nh Xut khu (X) v Nhp khu (M) hng ha v dch v cng tng t. Tuy nhin, trong h thng mi (BPM6), c X v M u ghi bn s dng. Cn cn Thng mi (TB hay NX) vn l X-M. Trong khi khon mc Thu nhp yu t rng (Income) c gi l Thu nhp s cp (primary income) v cc khon Chuyn nhng rng (Transfers) c gi l Thu nhp th cp (secondary income). Cng theo h thng mi, ti khon vng lai cng ti khon vn cng mc sai v st tr ti khon ti chnh s bng zero (trong khi h thng c, c bn khon mc cng li bng zero).

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Thm ht CA l tt hay xu?

Mt khi cc quc gia b thm ht CA ko di, nht l cc nc ln nh Hoa K, thng s phi

i mt vi nhng ch trch cng thng lin quan n i tc thng mi c cho l khng

cng bng m chng ta tng chng kin gia Hoa K v Trung Quc thi gian qua chng hn.

Hu ht cc nc u tng tri qua nhng thi k thng d hay thm ht CA. Mt s nc

tng c nhng thi k thng d CA ko di (nh Nht, Trung Quc), trong khi cng c nhiu

quc gia phi i mt tnh trng CA thm ht trin min (nh Vit Nam giai on gn hai thp

nin trc nm 2012). Thm ht CA l tt hay xu? ng qun rng chng ta ang c n 4

cch nh ngha CA c lin quan vi nhau c dng tr li cho cu hi l th ny.

Vi cch nh ngha th nht, chng ta thng c xu hng ngh rng xut khu l tt theo

ngha n mang v thu nhp ngoi t v nhp khu l xu v phi chi ra ngoi t; hn na,

thm ht CA c th l do nng lc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t qu km. Do vy, thm ht

thng mi thng b gn cho ngha khng tt m qun i rng xut khu c lin quan n

nhp khu - xut khu l c th nhp khu; nhp khu ngun lc cho u t v pht trin

thi k u qu trnh cng nghip ha c th cn thit v buc phi xy ra.

Trong trng hp CA c nh ngha l chnh lch gia tit kim v u t s cho thy khi CA

thm ht c ngha l tit kim quc gia thp so vi u t, hay t nc ang u t qu ln,

hay c hai ang xy ra. Hy ngh n nhng nc ang pht trin vi mc v t l tit kim

thp trong khi li c nhiu c hi u t, vic c c ngun lc ti tr t bn ngoi cho u

t tng trng v pht trin c tt hn tnh th t trang tri ch c th tng trng chm

hay khng? Tht khng may v cc bng chng thc nghim li khng cho thy r rng nhng

nc c CA thm ht th c kt qu tng trng cao hn hay khng - y l mt vn khc

cn suy ngh.

Vi hai cch nh ngha cn li, CA trong mi quan h gia thu nhp v chi tiu, v CA l chnh

lch gia cho vay v i vay t ROW, chng ta c th thy rng mt khi CA thm ht hay thu

nhp nh hn chi tiu, theo ngha hin nhin vi bt k ai, chng ta u cho rng y l hin

tng khng tt. Tuy vy, nu xt gc lin thi gian, mt vi nm CA thm ht v sau l

mt s nm thng d s d chu hn nhiu. t nc trong nhng thi k u thng c nhp

khu nhiu hn xut khu; sau khi nng lc ci thin theo thi gian, xut khu dn gia tng th

sao? L thuyt lin thi gian cng cho thy CA thm ht v thng d c th c vai tr lin hon

nhm dn tri tiu dng v phc li kinh t; hay ni khc hn, chng ta c th i vay rng khi

CA thm ht v tr n khi CA thng d.

T nhng lp lun trn, kh m suy on r rng v chc chn rng CA thm ht l hon ton

xu. Chnh s ging co ny tr thnh mt cu chuyn l th trong tranh lun ca cc nh lm

chnh sch v l thuyt kinh t hc v m.

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Vy nu CA thm ht ko di th sao? Liu c mt ngng bo ng v mc

thm ht CA c no s tr nn nguy him khng?

Khi mt quc gia c CA thm ht v ko di, kt qu ko theo s l dng vn vo rng tch ly

ngy cng ln, hay t nc ny ang gnh chu nhng ngha v n i vi bn ngoi, v ngi

nc ngoi ngy cng nm gi nhiu ti sn ca nc mnh hn. Cui cng th tt c ngha v

n u phi tr. Khi i hi CA phi thng d. Chuyn g s xy ra nu cc khon vay n

hn khng th thanh ton? Liu c th tip tc vay n mi tr n c? Liu nhng thi k tr

n vn duy tr phc li kinh t m khng phi tht lng buc bng? iu ny ph thuc rt ln

vo cch thc m chng ta s dng cc ngun lc ti tr trc nh th no trong vic

u t nhm tng nng lc ca nn kinh t, v cch thc u t vo cc hot ng mang li

hiu qu cao hay thp; hay cc th h trc s dng cc ngun lc ny ch tiu dng v

u t khng hiu qu . Theo Ghosh v Ramakrishnan (2005), trong khi mt s cc quc gia (c

v New Zealand) c th duy tr tnh trng CA thm ht vo khong 4,5-5%GDP trong vi thp

nin th nhng nc khc (Mexico 1995 v Thi Lan 1997) li ri vo tnh trng khng hong.

Theo ti, tr li hai cu hi bn trn, chng ta cn im li vn mt cch c h thng

theo thi gian.

L thuyt Tn c in cho rng mt nc c mc vn trn mi lao ng thp s c nng sut

bin cao hn khi tng thm mt n v vn trn mi lao ng. Do vy, nhng nc ngho thiu

vn trong nhng thi k u ca qu trnh cng nghip ha, dng vn ti tr n t bn ngoi

(hay CA thm ht ln) c th gip ch cho vic gia tng thu nhp v thu nhp bnh qun u

ngi. Nu vy, dng vn s c xu hng di chuyn t nc giu sang nc ngho. Tuy nhin,

Robert Lucas li pht hin mt nghch l rng thc t dng vn khng i theo hng ny. Hn

na, bng chng cho thy nhng nc c CA thm ht ln thng gp trc trc. Chnh v th

quy tc truyn thng nhn mnh n con s cho rng CA thm ht t 4-5% GDP l tn hiu nguy

him. Mt dng lp lun chung chung mang tnh ngy bin khc l CA thm ht s khng

nguy him nu ngn sch chnh ph l cn bng, v nh vy vay l ti tr cho khu vc t

nhn ( ngha ngm n cho rng khu vc t nhn l hiu qu hn).

Sau cuc khng hong n thp nin 1980 chu M La tinh v Mexico 1994, lp lun ny li c

cp nht cho rng CA thm ht l khng nguy him nu ngn sch chnh ph l cn bng v

quc gia c tit kim cao. V vy, vay l ti tr cho khu vc t nhn u t gip gia tng nng

lc ca nn kinh t thay v vay ti tr thm ht ngn sch hay tiu dng cui cng.

Bi hc t cuc khng hong ti chnh chu 1997 in hnh Thi Lan v lan sang mt s cc

quc gia khc rt nhanh chng nh Hn Quc, Indonesia,cho thy bi hc trn c v khng

n. Rt nhiu d n t nhn u t tp trung vo bt ng sn v u t ti chnh Thi Lan c

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vn ; nhng siu d n xut hin Hn Quc l khng hiu qu. Bi hc v CA c b

sung. CA thm ht l khng nguy him nu ngn sch chnh ph l cn bng, quc gia c tit

kim cao v u t c phn b hiu qu, v vy vay l ti tr nhng d n u t sinh li

cao hn thay v ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch hay cho tiu dng cui cng.

Cc bi hc ny tht s hiu nghim khi dng kim chng cho cuc khng hong ti chnh

ton cu 2008 (GFC 2008). Nh cc bi hc kinh nghim rt ra t cc cuc khng hong thp

nin 1980 v 1990, cc nc th trng mi ni (EMs) v cc nc ang pht trin ng vng

hn trc ln sng tc ng ca GFC 2008 u c nhng c im nh d tr ngoi hi cao

hn, t gi hi oi linh hot hn, n bng ngoi t t hn (tng vn c phn v FDI v vay n

ni t nhiu hn), ngn sch chnh ph mnh hn v chnh sch ti kha t c tnh thun chu k

hn, v c CA thm ht t hn.

Mt ct mc tip theo gn nht gip kim chng bi hc ny chnh l li tuyn b v kh

nng tng li sut ca Cc D tr Lin bang Hoa K vo thng 5/2013 v nhiu ln sau .

Nhng nc c CA thm ht nhiu hn th ni t b mt gi mnh hn (Mishra, Moriyama,

NDiaye & Nguyen 2014)2. Mt nghin cu khc ca Aizenman, Binici v Hutchisonso3 a ra

so snh gia 2 nhm nc, mt nhm c xem l c c s v m vng mnh nh CA thng

d, d tr ngoi hi cao v n nc ngoi thp (Peru, Israel, Hn Quc, Malaysia, Thi Lan) v

mt nhm c nn tng v m yu (Th Nh K, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Pakistan), kt qu l

sau s kin 5/2013 nhm c nn tng v m yu b tc ng ca dng vn tho chy mnh hn

v ni t mt gi trm trng hn. Hn na, theo gio s Frankel ca i hc Harvard, cc dng

vn th gii i vo cc nc EMs v cc nc ang pht trin c xu hng thun chu k nhiu

hn k t giai on 2003-2008. Tnh trng dng vn thun chu k thng xuyn xut hin hin

nay l li cnh bo ng lu v tnh trng dng vn vo t khi kinh t thun li v tho chy

nhanh chng hay dng t ngt khi kinh t kh khn. Do vy, cc nc khng nn qu lc quan

khi thy xut hin tnh trng thng d kp ca c hai ti khon ti khon vng lai v ti khon

vn v ti chnh - ca cn cn thanh ton i cng vi d tr ngoi hi tng nhanh (Trung Quc

vo nhng nm 1990 v u 2000, v Vit Nam hin nay).