为何要关注⽓气候变化？ ——⽔水资源匮乏

Edward Baker 裴远 英国驻上海总领事馆

Do we understand the risks? 我们了解⻛风险吗？

- What are we doing to the climate? 我们对⽓气候做了什么？

- What might the climate do to us? ⽓气候会对我们做什么？

- What might we do to each other? 我们会如何互相影响？

Three elements to a climate change risk assesment ⽓气候变化⻛风险评估的三个要素

Climate change is a risk multiplier -⽓气候变化是⼀一个⻛风险乘数

- ⽓气候变化带来的危险可能会是不可逆的

- 它也是⾮非线性的

-作为⼀一个全球性的问题，解决起来更⿇麻烦

Temperature anomaly

Frequency

Climate change: why should we care? ⽓气候变化：为什么我们要关注？

Climate change: why should we care? ⽓气候变化：为什么我们要关注？

Frequency

Temperature anomaly

夏季⽓气温反常现象的转移分布

Source: IPCC

有着4到5度温升的世界将是⼀一个不同的星球

Climate change: why should we care? ⽓气候变化：为什么我们要关注？

2 degrees 4-5 degrees

The number of global natural disasters 1980~2013 全球⾃自然灾害数 1980-2013 -Total no. of events more than doubled in past 30 years (source Re Munich) - Natural disasters account for 45% of the global insurance industries payouts (source PwC)

Source: Re Munich

Climate change: why should we care? ⽓气候变化：为什么我们要关注？

伊拉克⼈人就巴格达 酷热情况下停电表⽰示抗议 - Temperatures in excess of 50C - Power rationing

Climate change: why should we care? ⽓气候变化：为什么我们要关注？

Water Scarcity Project by 2025 2025年前⽔水资源匮乏情况预估

- 全球需求不断增加

- 污染

- ⽔水资源管理

- ⽓气候变化

Water Scarcity – the drivers ⽔水资源匮乏—诱因

Total Population of the World in Billions

Source: IIASA

Middle Class

UNCLASSIFIED

More where we don’t want it 我们不需要⽔水的地⽅方⽔水太多

pUK has long history of flooding. Thames barrier operational since1983 英国有着⻓长期对抗洪⽔水的历史：泰晤⼠士河⽔水闸⾃自1983年起投⼊入使⽤用。

p 2004 Foresight report indentified GBP 200 bn of assets in flood risk areas. 2004年的预测报告识别出洪⽔水⻛风险地区关联着2000亿英镑资产。

p UK has seen heavy flooding in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009 2013/14 英国在以下年份都经历了严重的洪灾：２０００，２００２，２００４，２００５，２００７，２００９，２０１３和２０１４。

从１９８３年起泰晤⼠士运河 ⽔水闸被关闭的次数

And less where we need it 我们需要⽔水的地⽅方⽔水太少

Drought in California 加州旱情

What can we do about it? 我们该做些什么？

➢ Bespoke risk based analysis 特定的⻛风险分析

➢ Improve our water management 提⾼高我们的⽔水资源管理

➢ Greater utilisation of sea water? 更⼤大范围利⽤用海⽔水资源？

Reasons to be positive 积极的原因

Growth in global emissions stalled for the 1st time 40 years in 2014 - IEA

What can the British consulate do about it?　英国领馆可以作什么？　

➢ Climate science / engineering 　　⽓气候变化科学与⼯工程

➢ Communication 　　宣传

➢ Policy collaborations 　　政策与合作

Concluding comments 总结

❑ Climate change amplifies the water security threat. ⽓气候变化加剧了⽔水资源的匮乏。

❑It is the tail risks not the average that we need to plan for. 我们需要针对极端⻛风险制定计划，⽽而不是平均状况

❑ UK keen to absorb best practice from around the world.

英国⾮非常希望借鉴世界各地的最佳实践经验。