Cityam 2014-09-15

24
TAKE A WINE PILGRIMAGE. TO TENTERDEN, KENT. Come and visit the vineyard & winery. Don’t just experience it, be part of it. Check out our crowdfunding campaign and placing at www.chapeldown.com Share in the Passion Become a Shareholder Powered by Moulton hits out at Stelios’ crowd funding CELEBRITY business leaders may be using crowd funding websites to exploit retail investors, the outspoken private equity guru Jon Moulton claims today. Moulton singles out easyJet founder Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou as one example of a name using his position to foist over-priced shares on to small investors in his new easyProperty estate agency. “Investors in crowd funding equities like stories and personalities. Celebrity types have spotted this demand and, as is normal, in markets are testing the limits of exploitation,” the Better Capital boss writes. “Sir Stelios has offered 1.5 per cent ownership in the new company for a substantial £1m. The business is not trading so he’s valuing it at £67m, which you must assume he thinks is a great deal for him as he clearly does not need the money.” Typically, he said, private equity investors buying shares at this stage in a new company’s life might expect a large holding for £1m. But financiers working on the fundraising round disagreed with Moulton’s assessment. “Overall we are raising £7.5m, and £6.5m of this comes through our normal network of professional and high-net worth investors. It is with them that we came to this valuation,” said Kingsley Wilson from Chrystal Capital. “The aim is to target landlords and tenants, so they can invest in a platform that we think they are going to use in their droves.” FTSE 1006,806.96 +7.34 DOW16,987.51 -61.49 NASDAQ4,567.60 -24.21 £/$1.627 +0.002 £/€1.256 -0.002 €/$ 1.296 +0.004 DEALS ON ICE AMID SCOTS VOTE FEARS Certified Distribution from 28/07/14 till 24/08/14 is 108,315 BY TIM WALLACE AND KATE MCCANN EXCLUSIVE BY TIM WALLACE JON MOULTON: Page 17 Thousands of people turned out yesterday for the closing stages of the Tour of Britain race in central London. Defending champion Sir Bradley Wiggins was victorious in the first race of the day, the individual time trial. Racers sped along Upper Thames Street as they passed under Blackfriars Bridge and took in views of the Houses of Parliament and the London Eye before reaching the finish line on Whitehall. See sport, page 23 SHARE IN THE PASSION. SEE BELOW BUSINESS WITH PERSONALITY www.cityam.com FREE MANCHESTER UNITED WINS FIRST GAME UNDER VAN GAAL BACK IN BUSINESS ISSUE 2,213 MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014 DEALMAKER SHORTLIST See Awards Page 10 See Page 22 A NUMBER of firms are putting stock market flotation plans on hold ahead of the Scottish referendum, fearing market turmoil could throw the ini- tial public offerings (IPOs) off track. Reports of deals being delayed comes as a group of polls showed the No campaign edging ahead and Prime Minister David Cameron headed to Aberdeen today to deliver a key speech aimed at the 500,000 Scottish voters yet to make up their minds. Yesterday, first minister Alex Sal- mond appeared to promise he would not call a second referendum if the Yes campaign loses on Thursday. However he did not rule out another vote if there is a change of leader. Businesses had previously thought Scottish voters would reject independ- ence by a comfortable margin. The RAC and British Car Auctions have both cancelled investor meetings this week, delaying their IPO plans, City A.M. was told yesterday. “Why risk things now when everything’s so uncertain?” said one adviser. Challenger bank Aldermore has post- poned its float – the lender had planned to announce its IPO this Wednesday, according to Sky News. UK equity capital markets have essentially been frozen with fear over the vote. The markets traditionally slow down over the summer, before roaring back into life in the autumn. But while banks across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have picked up again in September, market activity in London has remained flat. Figures from Dealogic show just one equity capital markets deal worth more than $50m (£30.8m) priced in the UK last week, an accelerated book- build worth just $81m. By contrast the rest of EMEA saw 20 deals priced, rais- ing a total of $3.92bn. “In the primary markets people are sitting on their hands and waiting to see what hap- pens,” one broker said. Cameron will warn there is no going back from a Yes vote. “This is a once- and-for-all decision. If Scotland votes Yes, the UK will split, and we will go our separate ways forever,” he will say. TOUR OF BRITAIN’S CAPITAL FINALE CAPS A FINE YEAR FOR UK CYCLING 3 DAYS TO GO QUEEN’S WARNING: Page 2 THE FORUM: Page 16

Transcript of Cityam 2014-09-15

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TAKE A WINE PILGRIMAGE. TO TENTERDEN, KENT.Come and visit the vineyard & winery. Don’t just experience it, be part of it.Check out our crowdfunding campaign and placing at www.chapeldown.com

Share in the Passion Become a Shareholder

Powered by

Moulton hitsout at Stelios’crowd fundingCELEBRITY business leaders may beusing crowd funding websites toexploit retail investors, theoutspoken private equity guru JonMoulton claims today.

Moulton singles out easyJetfounder Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou asone example of a name using hisposition to foist over-priced shareson to small investors in his neweasyProperty estate agency.

“Investors in crowd fundingequities like stories andpersonalities. Celebrity types havespotted this demand and, as isnormal, in markets are testing thelimits of exploitation,” the BetterCapital boss writes.

“Sir Stelios has offered 1.5 percent ownership in the new companyfor a substantial £1m. The businessis not trading so he’s valuing it at£67m, which you must assume hethinks is a great deal for him as heclearly does not need the money.”

Typically, he said, private equityinvestors buying shares at this stagein a new company’s life mightexpect a large holding for £1m.

But financiers working on thefundraising round disagreed withMoulton’s assessment. “Overall weare raising £7.5m, and £6.5m of thiscomes through our normal networkof professional and high-net worthinvestors. It is with them that wecame to this valuation,” saidKingsley Wilson from ChrystalCapital.

“The aim is to target landlordsand tenants, so they can invest in aplatform that we think they aregoing to use in their droves.”

FTSE 100▼6,806.96 +7.34 DOW▲16,987.51 -61.49 NASDAQ▼4,567.60 -24.21 £/$▲1.627 +0.002 £/€▼1.256 -0.002 €/$ ▲1.296 +0.004

DEALS ON ICE AMIDSCOTS VOTE FEARS

Certified Distribution from 28/07/14 till 24/08/14 is 108,315

BY TIM WALLACE AND KATE MCCANN

EXCLUSIVEBY TIM WALLACE

JON MOULTON: Page 17

▲ ▲

Thousands of people turned out yesterday for the closing stages of the Tour of Britain race in central London. Defending champion Sir Bradley Wigginswas victorious in the first race of the day, the individual time trial. Racers sped along Upper Thames Street as they passed under Blackfriars Bridge andtook in views of the Houses of Parliament and the London Eye before reaching the finish line on Whitehall. See sport, page 23

SHARE INTHE PASSION.

SEEBELOW

BUSINESS WITH PERSONALITY

www.cityam.com FREE

MANCHESTER UNITED WINS FIRST GAME UNDER VAN GAAL BACK IN BUSINESS

ISSUE 2,213 MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014

DEALMAKERSHORTLIST

See Awards Page 10See Page 22

A NUMBER of firms are putting stockmarket flotation plans on hold aheadof the Scottish referendum, fearingmarket turmoil could throw the ini-tial public offerings (IPOs) off track.

Reports of deals being delayedcomes as a group of polls showed theNo campaign edging ahead and PrimeMinister David Cameron headed toAberdeen today to deliver a key speechaimed at the 500,000 Scottish votersyet to make up their minds.

Yesterday, first minister Alex Sal -mond appeared to promise he wouldnot call a second referendum if theYes campaign loses on Thursday.However he did not rule out anothervote if there is a change of leader.

Businesses had previously thoughtScottish voters would reject independ-ence by a comfortable margin.

The RAC and British Car Auctionshave both cancelled investor meetingsthis week, delaying their IPO plans,City A.M. was told yesterday. “Why riskthings now when everything’s souncertain?” said one adviser.Challenger bank Aldermore has post-poned its float – the lender hadplanned to announce its IPO this

Wednesday, according to Sky News.UK equity capital markets have

essentially been frozen with fear overthe vote. The markets traditionallyslow down over the summer, beforeroaring back into life in the autumn.

But while banks across Europe, theMiddle East and Africa (EMEA) havepicked up again in September, market

activity in London has remained flat.Figures from Dealogic show just one

equity capital markets deal worthmore than $50m (£30.8m) priced inthe UK last week, an accelerated book-build worth just $81m. By contrast therest of EMEA saw 20 deals priced, rais-ing a total of $3.92bn. “In the primarymarkets people are sitting on their

hands and waiting to see what hap-pens,” one broker said.

Cameron will warn there is no goingback from a Yes vote. “This is a once-and-for-all decision. If Scotland votesYes, the UK will split, and we will goour separate ways forever,” he will say.

TOUR OF BRITAIN’S CAPITAL FINALE CAPS A FINE YEAR FOR UK CYCLING

3 DAYSTO GO

QUEEN’S WARNING: Page 2

▲ ▲

THE FORUM: Page 16

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Page 2: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 20142 To contact the newsdesk email [email protected]

Phones 4u collapses afterkey partner EE hangs upHIGH street mobile retailer Phones4u has collapsed into administrationafter being dropped by its last re -maining network partner EE.

In a statement last night, thegroup’s private equity owner BCPartners said it had no option but tocall in administrators after beinginformed by EE that it would not berenewing its contract next year.

The retailer, which employs 5,596staff and runs 720 outlets, including550 standalone stores, said the deci-sion had come as a “complete shock”.

Staff have been asked to report towork as normal today where theywill be briefed by management.Stores will be closed until administra-tors at PwC decide on whether thebusiness can re-open for trading.

The company said “it is intended”that employees would continue to bepaid until further notice.

EE’s decision, which follows a

Silicon Valley contrite over privacyThe US tech industry has failed to appreciate themounting global concern over its record ononline privacy and security and must act fast toprevent deeper damage to its image, SiliconValley’s top executives and investors haveconceded. The self-criticism… comes as some ofthe tech sector’s best-known names have beenbattered by a backlash over revelations ofwidespread US internet surveillance.

Russian sanctions could harm west’s oilUS and EU sanctions against Moscow are indanger of turning round and biting the west byconstraining global oil supply and pushing up

prices in coming years, a former chief executiveof BP has warned. Tony Hayward said thatcutting off capital markets from Russia’s energygroups, which would eventually lead to lessinvestment in Russian oil production, was likelyto damage long-term supply.

Advisers’ pay catching up bankers’Senior advisory bankers’ pay in London has risenalmost on to a par with traditionally higher-earning traders, underlining the shifting fortunesof these distinct businesses within investmentbanks. UK-based managing directors working ondeals and capital raisings have seen total pay riseby a fifth to an average of £586,000 last year,according to data compiled for the FinancialTimes by Emolument, a pay comparison group.

SMEs to launch action against RBSHundreds of business owners affected by RoyalBank of Scotland’s “turnaround” division forstruggling companies are planning to sue thebank through a group legal action. Small andmedium-sized companies who claim that theywere exploited and, in some cases, destroyed as aresult of the activities of the bank’s globalrestructuring (GRG) division are joining forces toseek compensation from the lender. The RBS GRGBusiness Action Group has appointed Clyde & Co,the law firm, to review allegations that viablecompanies were forced out of business. It saidthat about 800 companies had come forward tobe considered for the planned action.

Over-55s to fuel spending boom A spending boom among the over-55s will betriggered by a relaxation of the rules how muchcash people can take out of their pension pots,experts say. According to Hymans Robertson, aleading actuary, forecast that up to £5bn will betaken out of pension funds in the three monthsafter April next year.

Anti-euro party gains in GermanyAlternative for Germany (AfD), which wants toretrieve powers from Brussels, gained a record 12per cent of the vote in polling in eastern state ofThuringia, according to exit polls yesterday.

Poroshenko attacked over deal delayUkrainian President Petro Poroshenko faces risingcriticism for his decision to delay implementation ofpart of a European Union deal to avoid threatenedRussian retaliation. A senior diplomat resigned inprotest over the weekend, and pro-Europeanpolitician blasted the decision as caving to Russia.

Uranium prices set to fall soonA multiweek rally in uranium prices looks unlikelyto continue for long as the reality of oversupplyand lackluster demand sinks in among buyers ofthe nuclear fuel. Uranium now trades at $32.75 apound, up from a nine-year low of $28 in May.

DAVID Cameron yesterdaypromised to “hunt down” theIslamic State (IS) terrorist whobeheaded UK national DavidHaines, warning the governmentwould stop at nothing to see justice served.

“This is a despicable andappalling murder of an innocentaid worker. It is an act of pure evil,”the Prime Minister said in astatement. In a televised speechyesterday, he added: “We have toconfront this menace. Step-by-step,we must drive back, dismantle andultimately destroy IS and what itstands for. We will do so in a calm,deliberate way – but with an irondetermination.”

Cameron detailed thegovernment’s plan to back Kurdishforces on the ground in Iraq withweapons and training, but stoppedshort of throwing UK supportbehind air strikes in the region.The Prime Minister has been vocalin his support for Americanmilitary action.

Yesterday, the foreign officenamed a second British man beingheld by IS militants. Alan Henning,also an aid worker, was named in a video posted online by IS over the weekend, which appears toshow the beheading of BritonDavid Haines.

Cameron vowsto hunt downISIS terror killers

The Queen has called on Scots to think carefully about the referendum vote this week

BY KATE McCANN

BY KASMIRA JEFFORD

strategic review, is the final nail in thecoffin for Phones 4u after Vodafoneannounced earlier this month that itwould not be extending its contract.O2 and Three have already pulled out.

Phone 4u chief executive DavidKassler, said: “Today is a very sad dayfor our customers and our staff. If themobile network operators decline tosupply us, we do not have a business.”

He warned that the move by opera-

tors would result in less competitionand higher prices for UK customers.

Stefano Quadrio Curzio of BC Part -ners launched an attack on EE, saying:“Their behaviour appears to have beendesigned to inflict the maximum dam-age to their partner of 15 years, givingPhones 4u no time to develop commer-cial alternatives.”

Phones 4u made £1bn turnover and£100m of profits last year.

WHAT THE OTHER PAPERS SAY THIS MORNING

THE QUEEN spoke out for the firsttime on the Scottish referendumdebate yesterday, telling a well-wisher as she left church inBalmoral that voters should thinkcarefully about how they cast theirballot this week.

Speaking as she left Crathie Kirk,the Queen said: “I hope that peoplewill think very carefully about thefuture,” in response to a light -hearted question about thereferendum from a member of the

BY KATE McCANN public. A spokesperson for theRoyal Family confirmed thecomments, but would not be drawnon whether the Queen wasindicating explicit support for thepro-union campaign.

Scottish voters go to the ballotbox this Thursday to decidewhether the nation should remainpart of the United Kingdom or go italone. Polls over the weekendshowed the No campaign narrowlyahead in three out of four surveys,but many voters remain undecided.

Prime Minister David Cameron

will make a speech in Aberdeentoday, warning that the result ofthe vote will last for centuries tocome and cannot be reversed. Hewill tell a crowd of activists inScotland that there will be no goingback from independence.

“If Scotland votes Yes, the UK willsplit, and we will go our separateways forever,” Cameron will say,adding: “This is a decision thatcould break up our family ofnations and rip Scotland from therest of the UK. And we must be veryclear. There’s no going back.”

TODAY’S COMMENT: Business needs to speak out on Scotland, Perils of crowdfunding See Forum pages 16-17

NEWS

Queen hints at support for unionand tells Scots to think carefully

THE UK’s housing crisis could beresolved quickly if the governmentadded a new land classification togreen and brownfield sites, a newreport claims.

The Royal Institute of CharteredSurveyors (RICS) is calling onministers to sign up to its proposalfor Amberfield, which aims to createa pipeline of “ready to go land” fordevelopers to build on within fiveyears. Local councils andcommunities should work togetherto designate between 30 and 50 percent of vacant land as amberfield tosolve the housing shortage quickly,the group suggests.

The aim of the new classificationis to break the deadlock betweendevelopers and communities, whereprojects are often stalled.

“The planning system needs to beresponsive to the needs of customersand increased confidence is neededin which sites can be taken forward,”Jeremy Blackburn, RICS head ofpolicy said.

“We would suggest a quota of 50per cent amberfield for most localauthorities as it would enable themto deliver the appropriate housingstock required,” he added. Aspokesman for the department forcommunities and local governmentsaid ministers had simplified theplanning system.

Amberfield:the answer tohousing crisis

BY KATE McCANN

Phones 4u’s collapse into administration will put 5,596 jobs at risk

DAVID KASSLER, PHONES 4U CHIEF EXEC

Today is a very sad day forour customers and our staff.

If the mobile network operatorsdecline to supply us, we do not have abusiness.“

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MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014 3NEWScityam.com

REVENUES at PwC rose five per cent to£2.81bn in the last year, as the profes-sional services firm highlighted a bigincrease in client confidence acrossthe UK in a further sign of strengthen-ing economic recovery.

PwC revealed it had seen solid per-formance and growth across the boardof its UK business, with re -gional areas in partic-ular seeing strongergrowth, in a“pos itive signof rebalanc-ing” in the UKeconomy, accord-ing to the firm.

PwC UK chair-man and seniorpartner Ian Powellsaid: “I am optimisticabout the short-er terme c o n o -m i c

PwC revenuesboosted as UKoptimism rises

BY THOMAS FITZGERALD out look, we expect the UK economy togrow by around three per cent thisyear and by some 2.6 per cent in 2015.”

However, Powell said there was “noroom for complacency”, adding: “Weare aware of some 100 overseas busi-nesses looking to increase their foot-print in the UK, but are equally awarethat these companies look for relativepolitical and regulatory certaintybefore they invest.”

Meanwhile, PwC saw its profits forthe year to June 30th rise to £772m,

up from £750m in 2013.Average profits per partner was

£722,000, up from £711,000 in 2013while Powell will take a £3.7mshare of profits, up marginally on£3.6m in 2013.

PwC promoted 53 new equitypartners during the year, of which

40 per cent were women, in additionto 25 partners recruited external-

ly in the last 12 months.

THE US private investment firmlooking to buy Tottenham Hotspuris today revealing another pushinto the London market with a£400m development in Islington.

Cain Hoy, which last weekconfirmed it is considering a cashoffer for Tottenham, is partneringwith developer Sager group on ajoint venture to develop the 4.5acre Islington Square site.

Cain Hoy, founded by leading

Cain Hoy and Sager lead £400mIslington Square development

BY THOMAS FITZGERALD figures from global investmentfirm Guggenheim Partners andnamed from the racehorse stableowned by the Guggenheim family,will fund the development tocreate a mixed residential, shop -ping and leisure district.

Cain Hoy’s European investmentsare led by Jonathan Goldstein, whopreviously worked at Heron Towerdeveloper Heron International.

Work on the Islington Squaredevelopment has already begun,and is expected to finish by 2017.

FIRMS are flooding back to London,driving occupancy rates in thesquare mile back up to their highestrate since the credit crunch struck, astudy from TheCityUK shows today.

Employment in the City has alsohit a post-crash high, and thenumber of senior staff gainingpermission to work in finance isalso up.

Just 6.1 per cent of office space inthe City and Docklands was vacantin the second quarter of this year,the lowest level since the start of thedownturn.

It came as an additional 203,000square-metres of space was rentedout in the three-month period.

And firms taking more space arealso taking on more staff –TheCityUK expects headcount infinance and professional services torise by 2.7 per cent across 2014 to hit707,500.

The businesses are hiring moresenior staff as they grow. TheFinancial Conduct Authorityapproved 3,236 in the quarter, upfrom 2,749 in the previous three-month period.

The City industry group believesthis points to sustained growth forthe rest of the year for financefirms.

City offices attheir fullestsince the crash

BY TIM WALLACE

Ian Powell has been UKchairman since 2008

Islington Square is more Arsenal territory than Tottenham Hotspur

Page 4: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 20144 NEWS cityam.com

MICROSOFT is expected to announcea $2.5bn (£1.5bn) takeover of Mojang,the Swedish video game developerwith 100m players of its Minecraftgame, as soon as today.

The deal is aimed at pulling userson to the US software company’smobile platform Windows Phone,which commands only around 2.5per cent of the world’s smartphonemarket, accord ing to tech researchfirm IDC.

Minecraft was launched five yearsago as a PC game, but 54m sales later,about 40 per cent of copies are down-loaded on to phones and tablets.

Markus Persson, Minecraft’s creatorand co-founder of Mojang, said lastyear that Windows phones were soinsignificant in terms of marketshare that it wouldn’t be worth devel-oping a version of his hit game forthe platform.

Microsoft looks set to change thiswith its takeover, acquiring Mojang’s40 staff and spurring development ofthe game on its own mobile plat-form.

Microsoft set todisclose $2.5bnMinecraft deal

BY OLIVER SMITH “We don’t view this acquisition as asignal of Microsoft’s intent to doubledown on Xbox but consider it anattempt to better address mobile on across-platform basis,” said Nomuraanalyst Rick Sherlund in a note toclients this week.

“This also appears to be consistentwith (Microsoft) chief executive SatyaNadella’s mobile and cloud strategy,”he added.

The deal is relatively small forMicrosoft, which has $86bn in cashand short-term investments, and lastyear bought the handset division ofFinnish mobile firm Nokia for€5.44bn (£4.33bn).

But it is relatively large and expen-sive for game company acquis itions,which do not have a stellar record ofsuccess.

Japan’s SoftBank paid $1.53bn for a50 per cent stake in Finnish game-maker Supercell last year at about 3.5times projected annual sales. Elect -ronic Arts’ $750m acquisition ofPopCap in 2011 was valued around 10to 11 times sales.

Microsoft declined to comment onthe deal.

Britain’s biggest bookies bet onplans for stricter self-regulationTHE FOUR largest high streetbookmakers will today reveal plansfor a new independent watchdog tohold the gambling industry toaccount. They will also publish plansto restrict the advertising of fixed-odds betting machines andpre-watershed television advertising.

The bosses of William Hill,Ladbrokes, Coral and Paddy Power

BY OLIVER SMITH will launch the package of com mit -ments today in response to growingpolitical and public pressure over theregulation of the sector and part -icularly around betting machinescurrently common in betting shops.

“Actions speak louder than words.That’s why the Senet Group [the newregulator due to be created by 1January and overseen by anindependent StandardsCommissioner] will be given the

independence, budget and purposeto hold the betting industry toaccount,” said Gala Coral groupchief executive Carl Leaver on themove.

The Senet Group will have thepower to “name and shame” orimpose fines on operators whobreach rules that include theremoval of all advertising ofgaming machines from bettingshop windows by 1 October.

ISRAELI conglomerate Delek Groupyesterday announced that it hadagreed to sell Roadchef, one ofBritain’s leading roadside servicearea businesses, to European fundAntin Infrastructure Partners forabout £153m.

Delek Group, owned by multi-billionaire Yitzhak Teshuvah, holdsmajor shares in numerous new-found gas fields in the easternMediterr anean.

The sale of Roadchef is part of astrategy of selling off non-energyholdings as it considers issuing its

Delek in £153m sale of Roadchefas part of focus on energy work

BY JOSEPH MILLIS shares for trading on the LondonStock Exchange in addition to its TelAviv listing.

Delek managing director AsiBartfeld told Israeli financial dailyThe Marker: “The sale of Roadchefwas done quickly and efficiently,and continues Delek’s strategy offocusing on its energy activity.”

The company said it entered into abinding agreement with the Euro -pean infrastructure fund and theclosing was expected to take place bythe end of the month.

Delek said it would post a capitalgain of 220m Israeli shekels (£37.3m)from the sale.

BREWING giant SAB Miller has considered an offer for smaller independent rival Heinekenin a deal that would have helped to protect it from a takeover bid from AB inBev. SAB Milleris understood to have approached Heineken two weeks ago with a preliminary offer,according to Bloomberg News, which was then rejected by the family-controlled group

SAB MILLER OFFER REBUFFED BY HEINEKEN

Page 5: Cityam 2014-09-15

renault.co.uk

The offi cial fuel consumption fi gures in mpg (l/100km) for the Renault Clio Dynamique MediaNav 1.2 16V 75 are: Urban 40.4 (7.0); Extra Urban 60.1 (4.7); Combined 51.4 (5.5). The offi cial CO2 emissions are 127g/km. EU Directive and Regulation 692/2008 test environment fi gures. Fuel consumption and CO2 may vary with driving styles, road conditions and other factors. The offi cial fuel consumption fi gures for the Renault ZOE CO2 while driving are: 0, mpg: n/a.

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*Deposit contribution is available to new Renault Finance customers when taking Renault Finance on a new Renault ZOE (excluding ZOE Expression) or a new Renault Clio (excluding Clio Expression and Renaultsport). †Renault ZOE offer includes the UK government’s plug-in car grant (PiCG). ZOE monthly payment of £174 set out above includes a credit repayment of £129 per month and a separate mandatory battery hire repayment of £45 per month, based on 750 miles per calendar quarter, excess miles 30p per mile including VAT. Minimum duration 12 months. You will not own the battery. Visit renault.co.uk/zoe for full terms and conditions. Offers cannot be used with other schemes or fi nance offers and are available on specifi ed new vehicles when ordered and registered by 30 September 2014. Clio shown has optional metallic paint, available at an additional £595.

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Page 6: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 20146 NEWS cityam.com

THE BIGGEST flotation in the UnitedArab Emirates (UAE) since the globalfinancial crisis seven years ago isunderway as Dubai’s Emir Malls Group(EMG) is hoping to raise nearly $1.6bn(£983m) from the sales of shares.

EMG is offering 2bn shares, wortharound 15.4 per cent of equity, withthe price range set at between 2.50 and2.90 UAE dirhams per share.

At the mid-point of this price rangeEMG will have a market value of ar -ound $9.6bn, as it will look to raise upto $15.8bn from the float.

Around 70 per cent of shares will beoffered to institutional investors, while30 per cent will be made available toindividual investors from UAE, with 10per cent of shares earmarked for exist-ing Emmar share holders, and five percent reserved for the Emirates Invest -ment Authority.

Mohamed Alabbar, chairman of EMGsaid: “EMG has an excellent trackrecord and we believe that our iconic

Owner of DubaiMall aiming for£1bn flotation

BY THOMAS FITZGERALD assets, strong parent, experiencedmanagement team and the attractiveconsumer market in Dubai, make uswell positioned to deliver furthergrowth.”

The IPO is the biggest float in theemirate since port operator DPWorld’s $4.96bn offering in 2007, andwill be the first in the region to pro-vide both an institutional and retailoffering.

Alabbar added “This IPO represents asignificant step in the further develop-ment of the UAE capital markets, withshares in EMG being offered to bothindividual and institutional investors,and EMG is proud to be at the fore frontof this innovation.”

EMG’s portfollio includes the DubaiMall, one of the largest shopping mallsin the world and the main source ofrevenue for the group.

The Dubai Mall had approximately75m visitors in 2013, and acc ounted foraround 50 per cent of luxury goodssold in Dubai that year by overall salesvalue.

Dubai is home to the largest mall in the world by total built up area at 12.1m square feet

BANKS have increased their cross-border lending substantially for thefirst time since 2011, indicating thatconfidence is flooding back intomarkets.

The Bank of InternationalSettlements said yesterday that cross-border loans rose $580bn (£356.6bn)in the first quarter of 2014.The increase occurred across allmarkets, and emerging marketsrecorded a rise of $188bn in thequarter, a 10 per cent increase on the year.

Cross-borderlending jumps

BY TIM WALLACE

A COALITION of three oppositioncentre-left parties appeared to be oncourse to form the largest bloc inSweden’s parliament after yesterday’sgeneral election.

However, although the blocovertook the governing centre-rightcoalition, it fell short of an absolutemajority.

The opposition of SocialDemocrats, Greens and Left Partywould win 160 seats in the 349-seatparliament, but a coalition need175seats to form a majority government.

Sweden to turnleft after poll

BY JOSEPH MILLIS

1 After an Arabic degree at Oxford, Chris joined Rothschild in 2000,and is now managing director in the global financial advisory team.

3 Also mentioned in the release as advising from Rothschild is global co-head of equityadvisory Adam Young, who has nearly 30 years of experience in equity capital markets.

2 Chris is Rothschild’s head in the Middle East, and has been involved in deals such as the $25bnDubai World restructuring, $16bn Nakheel restructuring, and Gulf Marine Services London IPO.

Merrill Lynch International, JP Morgan Securities and Morgan Stanley & Co. International were joint globalcoordinators for the offering. BofA Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, EFG Hermes UAE , EmiratesFinancial Services, HSBC Bank Middle East and National Bank of Abu Dhabi were the joint bookrunners.

THOMAS FITZGERALD

BEHIND THE DEALROTHSCHILD | CHRIS HAWLEY

Also advising...

Page 7: Cityam 2014-09-15

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Page 8: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 20148 NEWS cityam.com

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SPREADBETTING firm IG Group istaking aim at Hargreaves Lansdownand Barclays Stockbrokers with thelaunch of an online stockbrokingservice today.

IG, founded 40 years and with amajority of the market, has spentbetween £2.5m to £3m developingthe service over the past two years ina bid to crack the lucrative market.

There are currently about 100,000

IG Group takes aim at incumbentswith online stockbroking service

BY MICHAEL BOW spreadbetters in the UK, but thenumber of people with an onlinestockbroking account is much larger,at about 750,000 users.

“It’s a much bigger audience andwe think at the moment thataudience is pretty poorly served,”chief executive Tim Howkins said.“The online stockbroking world iscurrently pretty primitive.”

IG is launching its bid to crack themarket today, offering live prices onabout 4,500 stocks.

LONDON’S listings market is bounc-ing back to pre-recession highs, as anincreasing number of companiesmake their debut on the LondonStock Exchange.

Research by Capita Asset Servicesforecasts main market initial publicofferings (IPOs) are likely to be worth£11.7bn this year, smashing the£8.7bn figure in 2011 that was largelyraised by the Glencore float.

Capita, which analysed the volumeand value of IPOs across the LondonStock Exchange’s main, AIM andinternational markets, said that, over-all, IPOs would drum up £18.5bn thisyear – more than twice the £8.3bnraised last year.

In 2006, a record year for listings,£25.6bn of shares were sold in 307IPOs. In the year to August 2014,£11.6bn has been raised through 92

Strong year forCity flotations

BY JENNY FORSYTH IPOs, and this should reach £18.5bnby the year end, Capita forecast.

On the junior AIM market, only 55IPOs have been staged so far this year,compared with 325 in 2005. But theaverage of £32m each raised by these55 companies is more than at anypoint since records began.

Capita said consumer-related com-panies in particular were floodingthe market. About 32 companies, onein every three floats, were in con-sumer goods and services and theseaccounted for 57 per cent of all theIPO money raised so far this year.

Justin Cooper, of Capita AssetServices, said: “It’s no coincidenceconsumer companies are dominatingthe picture as spending in the UK haspicked up sharply. We are a long wayahead of where we were just 12months ago, and 2015 will likely beeven stronger.”

BRITAIN’S political leaders arebeing urged by manufacturers toback policies that will rebalancethe UK’s economy, following aYouGov poll suggesting strong sup-port for such a move from voters.

EEF, the manufacturers’ organi-sation’s call follows new researchconfirming widespread support forindustry’s demands for better-bal-anced growth.

According to the YouGov poll, 63per cent want to see Britain enjoy-ing a better-balanced economy,where growth is sustainable andthe economy is growing across dif-ferent sectors.

Party leaders urged torebalance the economy

More than eight in ten – 85 percent – want the next government topromote a stronger manufacturingbase, believing it will deliver morejobs, economic growthand prosperity.

EEF chief exec-utive TerryScuoler said:“The messageto parties andpolitical lead-ers is loud andclear: a strong,rebalanced econ-omy has to be thelong-term end goaland at the heart ofyour election

offering. Industry and voters aresinging from the same hymn sheet.

“We want a robust, stable andresilient economy with a clear focuson balanced growth and this is amessage party leaders must not failto take into the election.”

He added: “A stronger manufac-turing base is a vital component –and while it is not a ‘cure all’ forevery economic ill, British indus-try does have a fundamental roleto play in building a better-bal-anced and more robust economy.

Government can and shouldfocus policies on delivering

this aim.

BY JOSEPH MILLIS

Rank Industry H1 IPO (£m)

1 Consumer services 5,922

2 Financials 1,920

3 Industrials 1,158

4 Oil and Gas 500

5 Healthcare 451

6 Consumer goods 146

7 Telecoms 106

8 Technology 59

9 Basic materials 8

Total 10,271

SUMS RAISED IN 2014 H1 LISTINGS

EEF head Terry Scuoler wantsa rebalanced economy

Number of IPOs in 2013/1418141062

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

20132014

Page 9: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 20149NEWScityam.com

Private equity firm Warburg Pincus is thought to be looking to sell UK-based safety and survivalequipment business Survitec. The manufacturer of survival gear in the marine, defence andaerospace sectors produces a wide range of kit, from life rafts to fighter pilots’ anti-G suits.

WARBURG PINCUS CONSIDERING SALE OF SURVITEC Mick Davis gets First Avenue onboard to build $4bn war chestMINING magnate Mick Davis is be-lieved to have hired more advisersas he looks to build on his $4bn(£2.5bn) funds while hunting assetsfor his new mining company.

Davis has been working to buildup funds since setting up X2 Re-sources following the sale of Xstratato Glencore for $27bn last year.

Now, in addition to working withGoldman Sachs on fundraising,

BY THOMAS FITZGERALD Davis is believed to haveadded US firm First Aven -ue, according to theSunday Times.

Mining companieshave been hit in re-cent years by low com-modity prices, withmany private equity firmscautious on invest-ment while themarket seemsdepressed.

The challenging commodity mar-ket has seen a number of big firmslook to restructure and sell of assets.

Last month BHP Billiton an-nounced a demerger to spin off as-sets into a new mining company,while AngloGold Ashanti last week

also announcing its own spin off ofnon-South African assets into a

new London-listed miner.

Davis sold Xstrata toGlencore in 2013

Page 10: Cityam 2014-09-15

10 cityamawards.com

Cenkos have had an extraordinarily strong year,taking full advantage of the boom in initialpublic offerings by driving the £1.4bn AAflotation. Durkin's work ensured the deal gotaway despite sceptics fearing that the firm wastoo highly leveraged. The adviser made £30mon the flotation, boosting its first half profits –and giving Cenkos a reputation as a successfuloperator on very high-profile deals well beyondits comfort zone of small- and mid-captransactions.

JIM DURKINThis year’s flotation frenzy has seen pent updemand explode, with Numis foremost among themid-cap advisers. Co-head of corporate brokingAlex Ham worked on a series of high-profilesuccesses, including the AO (Appliances Online),TSB and Polypipe IPOs. The diversity of the listingsshows his abilities across key sectors oftechnology, retail, finance and manufacturers. Buthe has not only had successes in the months whenthe market is booming. Back in 2011 Ham won CityA.M.’s Rising Star award after working on dealsincluding the Horizon and Betfair flotations, andadvising Investcorp on its bid for Opsec.

The high-profile flood of IPOs might have stolenmuch of the limelight this year, but Bank of AmericaMerrill Lynch’s Michael Findlay has dominated aseries of far bigger deals in the M&A space. He led theadvisory work on Verizon’s acquisition of the rest ofVerizon Wireless from Vodafone, in total a $130bndeal. Other successes include AMEC’s $3.2bn takeoverof Foster Wheeler and Balfour Beatty’s successfuldefence against Carillion’s £3bn merger proposal. Butpolitical objections have helped thwart one of hismore ambitious plans. Had circumstances beendifferent, Findlay may have pulled off Pfizer’sattempted £69bn takeover of UK rival Astrazeneca.

ALEX HAM

THE ZAOUI BROTHERS

Sponsorship enquiries: [email protected]

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014

SPONSORED BY

Although there has been a dearth of mergersand acquisitions so far this year, there has beena rash of initial public offerings (IPOs) for ourdealmakers to get their teeth into.

There has been some exciting deals forbankers to get a buzz from.

Verizon Wireless’ $130bn deal to take overVodafone, help in driving up the price ofAbbie bid for British pharma rival Shire and

Michael and Yoel Zaoui have shaken up the M&Aadvisory business in startling style this year – theMorocco-born brothers set up in business togetheronly in September 2013, but have already seized aplace on some of the biggest mergers of the year –the $60bn Lafarge-Holcim merger, creating theworld’s largest cement maker. It is not only thescale of the deals which has won the Zaouis theirnomination. They have also worked on innovativedeals, including the complex pharma manoeuvreswhich saw Novartis buy GSK’s cancer business, GSKtake on Novartis’ vaccines arm, and the pair mergetheir consumer healthcare operations.

Goldman Sachs has a formidable reputation touphold, and sure enough when a wave of IPOs cameto market, the Wall Street titan did not disappoint.Co-head of investment banking Anthony Gutmanhas been at the forefront of the flotation boom. Heled work on the B&M listing, which valued thediscount retailer at £2.8bn, and Upper Crust-ownerSSP’s IPO, which gave it a £1bn value. And Gutmansuccessfully defended Shire, driving up the price tagon rival pharma firm AbbVie’s takeover bid. But hehas also had to take the rough with the smooth,working on the Pets At Home and JustEat flotations,where shares slumped after going public.

ANTHONY GUTMAN

MICHAEL FINDLAY

in partnership with

CITYA.M. AWARDS 2014 Thursday 13 November 2014, Grange St Paul’s Hotel

Katie Derham presents the 2013 Dealmaker of the Year award to Simon Warshaw, then of UBS

Dealmakers thrive inCity’s flotation frenzy

the creation of the world’s largest cementcompany in a $60bn merger are only some ofthe highlights of the year

From innovative rights issues to aresurgence of flotations, from veterans to newkids on the block – with a few traditionalacquisitions and sales thrown in – the yearhas been a lively one for all of our candidatesfor dealmaker of the year.

DEALMAKER of the year

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MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 201411cityam.com

cityam.com/the-capitalistTHECAPITALIST Got A Story? Email [email protected]

IF YOU were north of the border overthe weekend breathing in Scotland’sfebrile political atmosphere you mayhave been standing side-by-sidewith none other thanRupert Murdoch.

But you may not haveknown it.

According to a tweetby the media tycoon, hewent undercover for atrue Scots experience.

We’re not quite surehow Murdoch travelledincognito around Glas -gow, Aberdeen and the small coastalsettlement of Rose hearty, but we’repicturing an elaborate stereotypical

McMurdoch hitsScottish streets

ensemble involving kilts, blue facepaint and copious consumption of Irn-

Bru and Tunnock’steacakes.

Alas, it appearsMur doch’s under-cover op came to anabrupt halt after hewas spotted.

Murdoch hasbeen a vociferoussupporter of Alex

Salmond, but yester-day he tweeted: “SNP not talking

about independence, but more wel-farism.” Maybe his trip north hascooled his ardour for the Yes vote.

Sir Martin's oldest friend is the historianSimon Schama. They met at school and

went up to Christ's College, Cambridge together. They toured Eastern Europe, including a visit towhat had been the Nazi concentration camp atTheresienstadt.

Fresh from business school, he wasmarketing consultant for Heinz bakedbeans and ketchup.

His father’sparents were from

Ukraine. His grandfatherclaimed to have cutoff a Cossack’shand at the age of10, “but we didn’tbelieve him”.

1

2

3

WPP Group chief executive SirMartin Sorrell

THREE THINGS YOU DIDN’TKNOW ABOUT...

What started out as a kitchen cookery experiment by a 52-year-old retiree has justmorphed into China’s next big snack trend. Joe & Seph’s, a gourmet popcorn makerfounded by Joseph Sopher, has just signed a deal to be sold in supermarkets throughoutBeijing and Shanghai. No word on cinemas yet though

POPCORN MAKER TO BUBBLE UP IN CHINA

Page 12: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 201412 NEWS cityam.com

MEDIAPLANET.COM

FintechThe special report

distributed tomorrow in City A.M.

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16-17

BRITISH footwear brand Dr Martens has posted a leap in sales and profits in its first year sincebeing bought out by private equity firm Permira. Revenues rose by 30 per cent to £209m in theyear to March, as the retailer increased the number of shops from 13 to 41 across the US, Europeand Asia. Underlying earnings rose by one-third to £33.9m, Companies House records show.

DR MARTENS PROFITS TAKE BIG STRIDE FORWARDUK footfall takes a hit in Augustdespite rebound in retail sales FEWER shoppers visited shoppingcentres and high streets in August,even as retail spending rebounded,new figures show.

The British Retail Consortium(BRC) and Springboard revealed thismorning that footfall dropped by1.1 per cent in August comparedwith the same time last year. Thiswas greater than the 0.6 per centfall in July and below the three-

KASMIRA JEFFORD month average, down 0.8 per cent.But data published by the BRC last

week showed that retail spending inAugust was at its highest sinceJanuary thanks to a surge inclothing sales, up 2.7 per cent.

BRC director general HelenDickinson said that while footfallwas down, the amount spent byconsumers on per shopping trip hassteadily increased in recent months.

“It seems that customers arehitting the high streets with

purpose – knowing what they wantto buy ahead of time, supported byonline research – and doing moreshopping in a single trip,” she said.

Footfall dropped most steeply onhigh streets, down 2.8 per cent onthe previous year, while at shoppingcentres it fell by 1.1 per cent.

Out-of-town retail parks fared thebest with a 2.9 per cent jump in foottraffic in August. The south east wasone of four regions to enjoy a rise inshopper numbers – up 1.2 per cent.

Page 13: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 201413cityam.com

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INTERVIEW

The man driving Moonpig’s growth story

A former operations chief at Aol Europe, Stan Laurent joined Photobox in 2006 and has grown the firm’s revenues to over £175m

B y the end of April, it becameclear to Stan Laurent thatLondon’s doors were effectivelyclosed to new consumer-facing

internet companies. There had justbeen the perfect storm of disastrousmarket debuts from Just Eat and AOWorld, along with two profitwarnings from Asos that triggered asell-off in shares of fellow fashionretailer Boohoo.com.

The chief executive of Photobox –owner of online greetings card firmMoonpig – had been pushing aheadwith plans for a London-listing thatanalysts said could have valued thebusiness at up to £500m. However, byMay those plans were in tatters.

“What we felt is that in the spring,after investors had been through theAsos profit warnings and the Just Eatinitial disappointment, they were ina kind of hang over. It just didn’t feeltimely to push on with a float,” saysLaurent. “The rationale for prioritisinga float over the last year was mostlythat we wanted to move faster withconsolidation. We’re gaining share or-ganically and we’ve done a few dealsbut there’s still a big opportunity ifwe can pile more volume onto our Eu-ropean operation.”

Photobox, which is listed on the UKgovernment’s Future Fifty ranking ofhigh-growth tech firms, sells person-

alised t-shirts, mugs and cards, oper-ating a group of online businesses, in-cluding Moonpig, PaperShaker,Sticky9 and its core Photobox brand.

Since 2000 the group has grownboth organically with the addition ofPaperShaker (offering birth announce-ments and wedding invitations) andthrough deals such as its £120m take -

over of Moonpig in 2011 and its acqui-sition of fridge magnet printer Sticky9.

By July, Laurent had secured a £50mrevolving credit facility from Barclaysand Royal Bank of Scotland, which hesays gives Photobox the ability to fi-nance any deals it might want to pur-sue.

“So we sat there and thought:

‘Should we really pursue a float giventhe context?’ When in fact the mainpurpose of our potential IPO [initialpublic offering], which was to raisefunds to be able to do deals, could beserved through other means.”

The decision was made and Photo-box’s plan to float was shelved. Despitethe volatile conditions in London this

year, Laurent says he remains commit-ted to pursuing a listing in the City,once the timing is right. “I’ve veryfirmly decided that if we do list thatwe should do it here as opposed toelsewhere. We have two great brandshere and about 50 per cent of our busi-ness is in the UK,” he says.

“We’re private equity backed and it’sno secret that one day we’ll be seekingan exit for our shareholders. As far asI can tell, when London’s capital mar-kets hear a good story… maybe they’rea bit shy at the beginning, but they’rehappy to do what’s necessary to becompetitive in the cost of capital forthe businesses.”

For now though those plans willhave to wait. Instead Laurent is on thehunt for deals.

“Although we’re a leader in Europe,particularly in the UK and France withabout 25 per cent market share, on apan-European basis we’re aroundeight per cent of the market and ournearest competitor is just half of that,”says Laurent, who adds that Photoboxis looking to grow aggressively.

So far Laurent’s strategy has beenworking. During the year to 30 Aprilhe delivered a solid 18.8 per cent salesgrowth, pushing Photobox’s revenuesto £175.3m, with underlying profitsstable at £19.8m. Let’s hope someonesent him a “congratulations” card.

I’ve very firmlydecided that if we

do list that we should doit here as opposed toelsewhere.

“The boss of Photobox tells Oliver Smith why he’s committed to a London listing

Page 14: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 201414 cityam.com

In association with YOUR ONE-STOP SHOP

BROKER VIEWS ANDMARKET REPORTS

LONDON REPORT

ALL EYES will be on the result ofThursday’s Scottish referendum,with market watchers keen toknow whether or not the 300-

year-old union will continue.As far as more normal risk events are

concerned, the main one will beWednesday’s release of the latest set ofMPC meeting minutes.

That will be complemented by the lat-est figures on consumer prices, employ-ment and retail sales, courtesy of theOffice for National Statistics (ONS).

On Friday, ratings agency Moody’swill announce its decision on the UK’ssovereign debt rating.

A busy day tomorrow includes newsfrom ASOS, Craneware, Crest Nichol -son, Galliford Try, IQE, Lidco, NBrown, Pan African Resources, Tho -mas Cook and TLA Worldwide.

On Wednesday, Brooks Macdonald,

Chemring, DMGT, Imagination Tech -nol ogies, JD Sports and Smiths Groupwill update the market.

Thursday’s reports come from FrenchConnection, Investec, Kier, MerlinEntertainments, Northgate, Petra Dia -monds, Premier Farnell, Trifast,WAN disco and Wilmington.

Scotland and MPCminutes the mainfocus for the City

Fed meetingin spotlightT HE RECENT wobbly stretch in

both stocks and bonds maypersist for the short term ifthe US Federal Reserve this

week lives up to expectations andsignals the days of near-zerointerest rates are numbered.

Anxiety over the two-day Fedpolicy meeting, centred onexpectations the central bank willlikely drop its pledge to keepinterest rates low for a“considerable time”, was a primarydriver behind stocks snapping afive-week winning streak this weekand bonds absorbing their steepestlosses in at least two months.

Top economists say they see atleast even odds the Fed will dropthe next phrase from its forwardguidance, which means they seerate hikes coming by next March.

Still, few expect such a movewould translate immediately into along-term change in investors’bullish view of stocks, especiallyrelative to bonds.

JD WETHERSPOONInvestec has kept its “buy” rating, but upped the target price to 885p from 870p. The broker saysfull year results were just ahead of expectations, and that cash generation remains strong, whilethe current year has started well with a like-for-like sales increase comfortably ahead of peers.

J D Wetherspoon PLCp

12 Sep8 Sep 9 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep

745

770.0012 Sep

765

755

750

760

770

HOME RETAIL GROUPNumis has raised to “hold” from “reduce”, with the target price kept at 180p. The broker thinkssecond-quarter results were mixed, with Argos like-for-like sales falling short, but with animproved margin due to the pattern of seasonal sales, and steady performance from Homebase.

Home Retail Group PLCp

12 Sep8 Sep 9 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep

175.00

174.9012 Sep

182.50

177.50

180.00

185.00

187.50

To appear in Best of the Brokers, email your research to [email protected]

BESTof the BROKERS

LinklatersStuart Bedford has beenappointed London head ofcorporate at the law firm.Previously head of Linklaters’corporate practice in Asia, hehas a background in privateand public mergers andacquisitions, joint venturesand capital raisings. Bedfordsucceeds Sarah Wiggins.

Lend LeaseThe property and infrastructure group has appointed

Rob Heasman as project director for its £1.5bnregeneration at Elephant & Castle. He was previouslydevelopment director of the project, and succeedsPascal Mittermaier, who is relocating to the US.

Brown RudnickIgnacio Torterola has been appointed partner in thelaw firm’s international arbitration group. He joinsfrom Foley Hoag, where he was international counsel.Torterola has also held positions in the office of theArgentine Treasury Attorney General.

EquifaxPatricio Remon has been appointed managing director

of the consumer and business insight firm’s UK &Ireland business. He was formerly general manager ofEquifax Iberia. Remon succeeds Shawn Holtzclaw, whois returning to Equifax US to lead its credit marketingand debt management operations.

Vannin CapitalThe litigation funding provider has announced threeappointments. Sir Stephen Silber has been appointedchairman of its investment committee. A former highcourt judge and QC, he has more than 40 years’ exper -ience in the legal profession. Bernard Hanotiau also joinsits investment committee. He is a member of the Brusselsand Paris bars. Paul Morris joins as a non-ex ec utive

director. He is a consultant senior counsel at Appleby.

National Association of Pension FundsJohn Dembitz has been appointed non-executivedirector at the association of workplace pensions. He isalso chairman of Incredibull, EAC Management andSaviour Box.

Colt Technology ServicesSohail Qadri has been appointed executive vice-president of strategy and business development at thetelecoms, IT, and data centre services firm. Hisprevious roles have included group strategy director atO2.

WHO’S SWITCHING JOBS Edited by Tom WelshCITY MOVES

To appear in CITYMOVES please email your career updates and pictures to [email protected]

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Page 15: Cityam 2014-09-15

Gold.............................................................1231.50 -9.75Silver ..............................................................18.64 -0.06Brent Crude ...................................................97.60 0.45Krugerrand ................................................1242.90 -3.90Palladium....................................................829.00 -17.00Platinum....................................................1360.00 -18.00Tin Cash Official.........................................21177.50 7.50Lead Cash Official........................................2114.75 3.25Zinc Cash Official.......................................2269.50 2.25

Copper Cash Official ..................................6855.75 27.00

Aluminium Cash Official ...........................2008.25 6.50

Nickel Cash Official...................................18342.50 -115.00Aluminium Alloy Cash Official ..................2105.00 -15.00

Cocoa Futures ............................................3074.00 34.00

Coffee 'C' Futures..........................................184.23 -1.30

Feed Wheat Futures.....................................112.50 -1.50

Soybeans Futures Continuation Contract..1091.00 29.40

AIR LIQUIDE ......................................................97.88 0.24 101.85 83.45AIRBUS GROUP ................................................48.50 0.30 57.33 41.61ALLIANZ N .......................................................133.05 -0.35 134.40 112.00ANHEUS.-BUSCH INBEV....................................85.76 -0.73 88.05 69.14ASML HLDG.......................................................76.95 1.12 77.13 57.51AXA...................................................................19.50 0.14 20.64 16.75BANCO SANTANDER............................................7.69 0.03 7.96 5.40BASF N .............................................................77.00 -0.17 88.28 69.13BAYER N ..........................................................106.15 -0.25 106.80 82.27BBVA...................................................................9.61 -0.00 9.99 7.76BMW ................................................................89.43 -0.57 96.10 77.58BNP PARIBAS-A- ..............................................53.97 0.26 61.82 46.50CARREFOUR......................................................25.78 -0.14 29.57 24.85CRH PLC .............................................................15.16 -0.23 16.93 12.81DAIMLER N .......................................................62.95 -0.26 71.27 56.05DANONE ............................................................54.17 -0.32 57.44 47.25DEUTSCHE BANK N ...........................................27.09 -0.19 38.15 24.17DEUTSCHE POST N ............................................25.39 0.01 28.47 22.94DEUTSCHE TELEKOM N........................................11.57 -0.09 12.97 9.43E.ON N ..............................................................14.40 0.06 15.37 12.89ENEL...................................................................4.22 0.02 4.49 2.72ENI ....................................................................18.78 -0.09 20.46 16.20ESSILOR INTL.....................................................84.01 0.30 84.17 70.51GDF SUEZ ..........................................................19.37 -0.04 21.19 16.02GENERALI..........................................................16.23 0.04 17.70 14.54IBERDROLA.........................................................5.56 -0.02 5.77 4.12INDITEX .............................................................23.18 0.16 24.36 20.21ING GROUP .......................................................10.95 -0.02 11.17 8.24INTESA SANPAOLO..............................................2.42 -0.02 2.66 1.49L'OREAL ...........................................................125.75 0.70 134.75 114.55LVMH ..............................................................136.20 -0.60 150.05 121.00MUENCH RUECKVERS N ....................................153.15 -0.30 170.40 141.20ORANGE.............................................................11.67 -0.05 12.85 8.39REPSOL..............................................................18.74 -0.04 20.55 16.53ROY.PHILIPS......................................................23.38 0.00 27.33 21.89RWE ..................................................................31.01 -0.58 32.98 23.97SAINT GOBAIN...................................................37.37 -0.16 45.75 35.04SANOFI.............................................................86.89 0.90 86.48 68.29SAP ..................................................................59.86 -0.01 63.30 51.87SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC .......................................64.26 -0.08 72.22 57.89SIEMENS N........................................................97.09 -0.45 101.35 86.44SOCIETE GENERALE...........................................41.66 0.08 48.69 34.74TELEFONICA .......................................................11.92 0.00 13.14 10.84TOTAL ...............................................................50.03 -0.14 54.71 41.05UNIBAIL-RODAMCO .........................................207.10 -0.50 213.70 174.25UNICREDIT..........................................................6.29 -0.02 6.89 4.54UNILEVER CERT.................................................31.96 0.01 32.78 26.97VINCI ...............................................................45.87 -0.39 57.36 41.51VIVENDI.............................................................19.33 -0.10 21.31 16.83VOLKSWAGEN VZ ............................................175.50 -0.80 205.00 162.50

Price Chg High Low

EU SHARES

3M...................................................................143.94 -0.41 146.43 116.65AMAZON.COM ..................................................331.19 0.67 408.06 284.38AMERICAN EXPRESS.........................................87.64 -0.78 96.24 72.08AMGEN............................................................137.89 -1.07 139.93 105.76APPLE .............................................................101.66 0.23 103.74 63.89AT&T.................................................................34.50 -0.35 37.48 31.74BANK OF AMERICA ...........................................16.79 0.22 18.03 13.60BERKSHIRE HATHAWY-B.................................137.09 -0.83 138.90 108.12BOEING CO......................................................126.95 -0.69 144.57 109.56CATERPILLAR ..................................................105.02 -0.57 111.46 81.87CHEVRON........................................................122.66 -1.17 135.10 109.27CISCO SYSTEMS..................................................25.16 -0.02 26.08 20.22CITIGROUP .......................................................52.38 0.15 55.28 45.18COCA-COLA CO..................................................41.46 -0.49 42.57 36.83COMCAST-A.......................................................57.08 0.10 57.13 43.20CONOCOPHILLIPS..............................................78.45 -0.93 87.09 62.74CVS HEALTH .....................................................80.57 -0.52 82.12 56.32DU PONT NEMOURS&CO...................................64.78 -0.35 69.75 56.46EXXON MOBIL...................................................95.78 -1.25 104.76 84.79FACEBOOK-A.....................................................77.48 -0.44 78.36 42.43GENERAL ELECTRIC...........................................25.87 -0.15 28.09 23.50GILEAD SCIENCES............................................103.66 -2.73 110.64 58.81GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP ................................183.17 2.17 183.47 151.65GOOGLE-A .....................................................584.90 -6.21 614.44 421.49GOOGLE-C.......................................................575.62 -5.73 604.83 502.80HOME DEPOT....................................................88.84 -0.38 93.52 73.74IBM..................................................................191.28 -0.44 199.21 172.19INTEL................................................................34.62 -0.40 35.56 22.48JOHNSON & JOHNSON....................................104.58 0.03 106.74 85.50JPMORGAN CHASE...........................................60.03 0.27 61.48 50.06MCDONALD'S....................................................93.34 0.38 103.78 90.53MERCK..............................................................59.55 -0.55 61.33 44.62MICROSOFT ......................................................46.70 -0.31 47.00 32.15NIKE -B- ...........................................................81.84 0.02 82.79 67.19ORACLE............................................................40.50 -0.18 43.19 32.00PEPSICO ...........................................................90.87 -0.78 93.51 77.01PFIZER..............................................................29.43 -0.20 32.96 27.87PHILIP MRRS INT..............................................84.02 -0.48 91.81 75.28PROCTER&GAMBLE ..........................................83.26 -0.23 85.82 75.20QUALCOMM.......................................................75.33 -0.78 81.97 65.47SCHLUMBERGER .............................................102.22 -2.23 118.76 84.91TRAVLR COMP ..................................................92.42 -0.50 96.18 79.89TWITTER ............................................................52.11 -0.53 74.73 29.51UNION PACIFIC .................................................107.01 -0.70 108.74 74.62UNITEDHEALTH GROUP.....................................86.18 -0.90 88.85 66.72UTD TECHNOLOGIES ........................................108.35 -0.16 120.66 102.21VERIZON COMM ...............................................48.40 -0.61 53.66 45.45VISA-A............................................................214.04 -0.91 235.50 180.11WAL-MART STORES ..........................................75.77 -0.33 81.37 71.51WALT DISNEY-DISNEY......................................89.67 -0.30 91.20 63.10WELLS FARGO...................................................51.70 0.11 53.08 40.07

COMMODITIES CREDIT & RATESBoE IR Overnight.........................................0.500 0.00BoE IR 7 days..............................................0.500 0.00BoE IR 1 month...........................................0.500 0.00BoE IR 3 months.........................................0.500 0.00BoE IR 6 months ........................................0.500 0.00LLIBOR Euro - overnight............................-0.059 0.01LIBOR Euro - 12 months ..............................0.299 -0.01LIBOR USD - overnight.................................0.091 0.00LIBOR USD - 12 months ...............................0.582 0.00 Halifax mortgage rate ................................3.990 0.00

Euro Base Rate............................................0.050 0.00Finance house base rate .............................1.000 0.00US Fed funds.................................................0.09 0.00US long bond yield ........................................3.35 0.08European repo rate ...................................-0.032 0.00Euro Euribor ...............................................-0.021 -0.01The vix index................................................13.32 0.52The baltic dry index.................................1,186.00 -11.00Markit iBoxx ..............................................266.79 0.68Markit iTraxx................................................59.09 1.19

Price Chg High Low

US SHARES

€/$ 1.2952 0.0025

€/£ 0.7965 0.0022

€/¥ 139.07 0.7493

/€ 1.2556 0.0034

/$ 1.6262 0.0014

/¥ 174.69 0.4464

FTSE 100

6806.967.34

FTSE 250

15711.8590.50

FTSE ALL SHARE

3627.856.68

DOW JONES

16,987.5161.49

NASDAQ

4567.6024.21

S&P 500

1985.5411.91

CONSTRUCTION & MATERIALS

BAE Systems . . . . . . . . .459.0 2.0 468.0 376.0Cobham . . . . . . . . . . . . .292.1 2.8 327.8 254.9Meggitt . . . . . . . . . . . . .485.4 -0.2 572.5 447.7QinetiQ Group . . . . . . . .225.7 3.0 236.7 180.8Rolls-Royce Holdi . . . .1025.0 3.0 1289.0 961.5Senior . . . . . . . . . . . . . .282.9 1.1 315.5 252.9Ultra Electronics . . . . .1765.0 14.0 1971.0 1665.0

GKN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .347.8 3.0 414.9 337.8

Bank of Georgia H . . .2401.0 56.0 2678.0 1827.0Barclays . . . . . . . . . . . .230.0 4.5 296.5 207.9HSBC Holdings . . . . . . .657.4 3.0 703.2 589.0Lloyds Banking Gr . . . . . .74.6 0.5 86.3 70.9Royal Bank of Sco . . . . .349.7 3.7 384.9 295.5Standard Chartere . . .1244.0 -1.0 1564.0 1184.5

Barr (A.G.) . . . . . . . . . . .622.5 10.0 672.0 502.0Britvic . . . . . . . . . . . . . .686.0 15.5 777.5 554.5Coca-Cola HBC AG . . . .1373.0 -7.0 1970.0 1287.0Diageo . . . . . . . . . . . . .1812.5 -1.5 2060.5 1709.5SABMiller . . . . . . . . . .3405.5 -14.0 3479.0 2661.0Stock Spirits Gro . . . . . .291.0 0.5 315.0 225.0

Alent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .347.8 3.8 385.0 300.0Croda Internation . . . .2194.0 15.0 2738.0 2101.0Elementis . . . . . . . . . . . .271.8 1.5 297.8 230.4Johnson Matthey . . . .3170.0 20.0 3440.0 2714.0Synthomer . . . . . . . . . . .226.1 0.4 291.8 207.9Victrex plc . . . . . . . . . .1729.0 14.0 2026.0 1549.0

Balfour Beatty . . . . . . .226.0 -1.0 321.4 216.3CRH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1482.0 2.0 1788.0 1343.0Galliford Try . . . . . . . . .1237.0 1.0 1354.0 1023.0Keller Group . . . . . . . . .921.0 7.0 1299.0 844.0

Pets at Home Grou . . . .175.0 0.0 246.0 170.0Poundland Group . . . . .318.5 4.3 390.0 287.0Sports Direct Int . . . . . . .712.5 -1.5 922.0 647.0Ted Baker . . . . . . . . . .1843.0 26.0 2327.0 1660.0WH Smith . . . . . . . . . .1093.0 4.0 1227.0 818.0

AL Noor Hospitals . . . .1055.0 0.0 1168.0 805.0NMC Health . . . . . . . . . .479.0 17.5 540.0 314.3Smith & Nephew . . . . .1075.0 4.0 1100.0 747.5Synergy Health . . . . . .1477.0 13.0 1519.0 995.0

Barratt Developme . . . .389.3 10.0 451.8 302.1Bellway . . . . . . . . . . . .1609.0 17.0 1691.0 1258.0Berkeley Group Ho . . .2365.0 20.0 2780.0 2015.0Bovis Homes Group . . .836.5 14.5 943.5 700.5Crest Nicholson H . . . . .337.0 1.0 412.6 324.3Persimmon . . . . . . . . .1369.0 21.0 1471.0 1061.0Reckitt Benckiser . . . .5415.0 50.0 5420.0 4269.0Redrow . . . . . . . . . . . . . .281.1 5.9 344.5 227.0Taylor Wimpey . . . . . . . .113.4 1.4 131.0 97.0

Bodycote . . . . . . . . . . .696.0 2.0 828.5 596.0Fenner . . . . . . . . . . . . .360.6 2.6 485.0 327.9IMI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1311.0 0.0 1608.0 1303.0Melrose Industrie . . . . .254.5 0.2 328.5 252.0

Kier Group . . . . . . . . . .1683.0 3.0 1939.0 1605.0

Drax Group . . . . . . . . . .654.5 -2.0 822.5 595.0Infinis Energy . . . . . . . .210.0 -1.0 273.0 200.0SSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1490.0 5.0 1595.0 1300.0

Domino Printing S . . . .608.5 6.0 863.0 576.0Halma . . . . . . . . . . . . . .625.0 5.0 636.5 528.0Hellermanntyton G . . . .313.8 4.5 335.6 261.3Laird . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .294.3 -0.3 330.0 217.0Morgan Advanced M . .320.0 3.2 365.0 285.0Oxford Instrument . . . .1175.0 5.0 1814.0 1143.0Renishaw . . . . . . . . . .1663.0 36.0 2223.0 1470.0Spectris . . . . . . . . . . . .1989.0 11.0 2561.0 1904.0Xaar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .405.1 -0.7 1162.0 400.0

Aberforth Smaller . . . .1030.0 0.0 1232.0 966.0Alliance Trust . . . . . . . . .457.4 1.5 461.9 422.5Bankers Inv Trust . . . . . .571.5 2.5 595.0 550.0BH Global Ltd. GB . . . . .1210.0 1.0 1217.0 1155.0BH Macro Ltd. GBP . . . .2011.0 1.0 2155.0 1920.0BlackRock World M . . . .476.4 -3.2 518.5 430.1BlueCrest AllBlue . . . . . .185.9 0.1 186.0 169.3British Empire Se . . . . .523.0 2.0 524.5 473.0Caledonia Investm . . .2161.0 22.0 2280.0 1765.0City of London In . . . . .380.4 2.6 389.2 354.3Edinburgh Inv Tru . . . .605.0 4.5 621.0 563.0Electra Private E . . . . .2714.0 14.0 2775.0 2176.0Fidelity China Sp . . . . . .122.4 -0.5 123.2 95.3Fidelity European . . . . .155.0 1.1 161.0 144.0Foreign and Colon . . . .399.3 0.8 400.9 360.0Genesis Emerging . . . .576.0 6.0 576.0 476.6HICL Infrastructu . . . . . .144.0 0.4 146.4 128.7International Pub . . . . .135.6 1.3 135.7 124.0John Laing Infras . . . . . .118.9 1.1 120.7 111.8JPMorgan American . . .260.7 1.8 261.9 218.2JPMorgan Emerging . .590.0 -7.5 603.5 501.0Law Debenture Cor . . .528.0 6.0 560.0 497.6Mercantile Invest . . . . .1447.0 10.0 1664.0 1354.0Monks Inv Trust . . . . . .386.0 1.5 404.9 363.0Murray Internatio . . . .1105.0 17.0 1151.0 921.0NB Global Floatin . . . . . .97.0 0.4 106.5 96.6Perpetual Income . . . .373.0 1.5 394.0 345.7Personal Assets T . . .34190.0 50.0 34350.031860.0Polar Capital Tec . . . . . .507.0 0.0 510.5 431.0RIT Capital Partn . . . . .1370.0 -2.0 1380.0 1215.0Riverstone Energy . . . .899.5 4.5 970.0 871.0Scottish Inv Trus . . . . . .602.0 2.5 606.5 566.5Scottish Mortgage . . . .233.0 3.6 234.0 182.4Temple Bar Inv Tr . . . .1220.0 6.0 1285.0 1160.0Templeton Emergin . . .608.0 -3.5 623.5 493.5TR Property Inv T . . . . .265.4 0.4 274.0 209.0Witan Inv Trust . . . . . . .711.0 6.0 724.0 614.0Worldwide Healthc . .1464.0 9.0 1481.0 1130.0

3i Group . . . . . . . . . . . . .378.2 3.4 435.3 341.63i Infrastructure . . . . . . .137.8 -0.8 140.5 125.9Aberdeen Asset Ma . . .432.2 1.0 500.0 363.3Arrow Global Grou . . . .245.3 3.8 270.3 212.3Ashmore Group . . . . . .328.2 1.2 419.8 298.0Brewin Dolphin Ho . . . .276.9 7.9 356.3 263.0Camellia . . . . . . . . . . .9950.0 200.0 11220.0 8450.0Charles Taylor . . . . . . . .242.3 2.3 287.0 201.0City of London Gr . . . . . .20.0 0.0 66.0 17.3City of London In . . . . .320.3 -8.8 337.8 225.3Close Brothers Gr . . . .1396.0 17.0 1470.0 1120.0Hargreaves Lansdo . . .1005.0 1.0 1549.0 978.5Henderson Group . . . . .220.0 2.5 270.3 183.0ICAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .360.4 2.7 458.7 342.8IG Group Holdings . . . .599.0 5.0 652.5 560.5Intermediate Capi . . . .403.9 11.7 496.8 372.7

International Per . . . . . .513.0 9.0 675.0 455.2Investec . . . . . . . . . . . .558.0 -3.0 563.0 384.2IP Group . . . . . . . . . . . . .213.0 2.9 224.9 134.6Jupiter Fund Mana . . . .359.5 5.5 436.8 352.0Liontrust Asset M . . . . .226.0 2.5 283.5 211.5LMS Capital . . . . . . . . . . .86.5 0.3 87.8 72.0London Finance & . . . . .32.5 0.0 34.5 30.5London Stock Exch . . .1869.0 2.0 1920.6 1390.9Man Group . . . . . . . . . . .122.7 3.0 126.1 78.4Paragon Group Of . . . .340.0 -0.8 418.7 309.5Provident Financi . . . .2139.0 27.0 2284.0 1549.0Rathbone Brothers . . .1939.0 19.0 2166.0 1479.0Real Estate Credi . . . . . .163.3 0.3 167.0 147.0Record . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35.0 -0.4 43.8 28.3S&U . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1870.0 28.0 2105.0 1310.0Schroders . . . . . . . . . .2447.0 20.0 2727.0 2213.0SVG Capital . . . . . . . . . .408.1 2.5 466.0 374.0Tullett Prebon . . . . . . . .276.1 0.6 393.0 239.0Walker Crips Grou . . . . .46.8 0.0 52.8 41.5

BT Group . . . . . . . . . . . .389.4 1.6 418.1 340.6Cable & Wireless . . . . . .46.8 0.0 57.4 39.2COLT Group SA . . . . . . . .141.3 -1.0 153.9 114.4TalkTalk Telecom . . . . .307.6 2.7 333.1 241.6Telecom Plus . . . . . . . .1350.0 -2.0 1929.0 1179.0

Booker Group . . . . . . . . .118.5 0.4 176.5 117.8Morrison (Wm) Sup . . .176.5 -1.3 302.5 165.5Ocado Group . . . . . . . .306.6 -6.1 617.0 297.3Sainsbury (J) . . . . . . . . .287.1 1.8 414.6 209.5Tesco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .228.7 -1.6 378.3 225.6UDG Healthcare Pu . . . .345.9 4.0 373.0 294.0

Associated Britis . . . . .2621.0 -56.0 3125.0 1806.0Cranswick . . . . . . . . . .1302.0 -6.0 1365.0 1055.0Dairy Crest Group . . . .400.0 0.7 560.5 396.6Greencore Group . . . . .259.0 -1.4 301.0 137.0Tate & Lyle . . . . . . . . . .698.0 2.0 821.0 624.0Unilever . . . . . . . . . . .2696.0 4.0 2729.0 2306.0

Mondi . . . . . . . . . . . . .1063.0 4.0 1123.0 904.5

Centrica . . . . . . . . . . . . .322.0 -1.6 402.2 304.5National Grid . . . . . . . . .897.5 -6.0 916.0 730.5Pennon Group . . . . . . . .811.5 1.0 826.5 631.0Severn Trent . . . . . . . .1946.0 -14.0 2000.0 1637.0United Utilities . . . . . .849.0 -5.0 908.0 641.5

Rexam . . . . . . . . . . . . .496.3 1.0 547.5 477.7RPC Group . . . . . . . . . . .541.5 2.0 658.5 446.1Smith (DS) . . . . . . . . . .284.9 1.2 355.3 258.8Smiths Group . . . . . . . .1353.0 11.0 1525.0 1224.0Vesuvius . . . . . . . . . . . .461.9 -1.5 510.5 413.2

AO World . . . . . . . . . . . .194.2 4.2 378.0 190.0Brown (N.) Group . . . . .418.2 5.2 599.0 402.9Debenhams . . . . . . . . . .63.8 -0.6 111.8 61.8Dignity . . . . . . . . . . . . .1437.0 -7.0 1531.0 1300.0Dixons Carphone . . . . .372.2 3.2 375.1 221.8Dunelm Group . . . . . . .848.0 -9.0 1014.0 763.5Halfords Group . . . . . . .466.0 -0.1 511.5 370.5Home Retail Group . . . .174.9 0.9 223.3 162.5Inchcape . . . . . . . . . . . .679.0 3.0 689.5 556.5JD Sports Fashion . . . . .403.0 10.0 456.3 242.9Just Eat . . . . . . . . . . . . .297.6 4.7 298.1 197.0Kingfisher . . . . . . . . . . .319.0 -1.0 444.2 295.4Marks & Spencer G . . . .425.0 -0.7 513.5 416.6Next . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6945.0 -5.0 7215.0 4940.0

Price Chg High Low

Rotork . . . . . . . . . . . . .2764.0 -25.0 2894.0 2352.0Spirax-Sarco Engi . . . .2864.0 17.0 3101.0 2561.0Weir Group . . . . . . . . .2704.0 -16.0 2761.0 2050.0

Evraz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117.9 2.1 139.9 54.4Ferrexpo . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.2 0.0 199.0 121.8

BBA Aviation . . . . . . . . .322.0 4.0 353.4 293.0Fisher (James) & . . . .1359.0 29.0 1552.0 1059.0Royal Mail . . . . . . . . . . .423.4 0.8 615.0 403.8

Admiral Group . . . . . . .1243.0 8.0 1575.0 1195.0Amlin . . . . . . . . . . . . . .429.6 -0.9 490.8 389.3Beazley . . . . . . . . . . . . .259.0 1.0 280.3 203.5Brit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .248.0 6.9 260.0 204.8Catlin Group Ltd. . . . . .502.0 1.5 586.5 468.0Direct Line Insur . . . . . .296.1 3.9 304.2 207.0esure Group . . . . . . . . .235.2 1.1 291.0 212.3Hiscox Ltd (CDI) . . . . . .632.0 5.0 737.6 622.5Jardine Lloyd Tho . . . .1005.0 4.0 1095.0 910.0Lancashire Holdin . . . . .612.0 3.0 820.0 591.5RSA Insurance Gro . . . .475.0 1.9 573.0 399.9

Moneysupermarket. . . .195.0 6.4 200.0 142.4Pearson . . . . . . . . . . . .1178.0 24.0 1365.0 998.0Perform Group . . . . . . .259.0 0.8 570.0 180.0Reed Elsevier . . . . . . . .992.5 5.5 999.0 811.0Rightmove . . . . . . . . .2336.0 15.0 2805.0 2079.0STV Group . . . . . . . . . . .355.0 -2.8 379.0 244.0Tarsus Group . . . . . . . . .207.8 0.0 252.3 196.5Trinity Mirror . . . . . . . . .179.0 -4.8 233.5 121.0UBM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .604.5 0.0 746.5 596.0UTV Media . . . . . . . . . . .199.3 0.0 263.8 180.0WPP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1272.0 3.0 1383.0 1175.0

African Barrick G . . . . . .226.2 -4.0 320.0 135.8Anglo American . . . . .1483.0 -12.0 1648.0 1226.5Antofagasta . . . . . . . . .764.0 -3.0 959.0 746.5BHP Billiton . . . . . . . . .1848.5 -0.5 2096.0 1754.5Centamin (DI) . . . . . . . . .62.2 1.1 75.0 38.6Fresnillo . . . . . . . . . . . . .816.0 -3.0 1198.0 674.5Glencore . . . . . . . . . . . .358.8 -2.4 377.5 297.0Hochschild Mining . . . . .161.5 1.4 277.8 120.3Kazakhmys . . . . . . . . . .280.4 -7.4 354.0 171.5Lonmin . . . . . . . . . . . . . .213.7 -0.1 348.3 211.4Petra Diamonds Lt . . . .196.3 0.6 216.6 107.5Polymetal Interna . . . .505.0 1.5 735.0 477.3

Aviva . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .525.5 -5.5 534.0 396.8Friends Life Grou . . . . .303.4 2.1 382.6 277.0Just Retirement G . . . . .139.0 2.6 272.0 134.5Legal & General G . . . . .238.1 1.5 243.5 186.5Old Mutual . . . . . . . . . .194.0 -2.4 209.4 171.1Phoenix Group Hol . . . .712.0 -1.0 788.5 619.0Prudential . . . . . . . . . .1427.0 0.5 1455.0 1138.0St James's Place . . . . . .700.0 3.5 879.5 601.0Standard Life . . . . . . . .410.6 -2.8 417.2 333.2

4Imprint Group . . . . . . .745.5 2.5 755.0 544.0Bloomsbury Publis . . . .170.3 -0.3 188.5 142.5British Sky Broad . . . . .874.0 6.0 950.0 785.0Centaur Media . . . . . . . .59.8 0.8 76.0 44.8Chime Communicati . . .310.3 -5.0 374.3 300.3Creston . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115.0 1.8 115.5 81.0Entertainment One . . .329.0 3.0 360.0 216.9Euromoney Institu . . .1086.0 -4.0 1388.0 1014.0Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.5 0.2 19.1 5.9Haynes Publishing . . . . .177.5 0.0 225.0 175.0Huntsworth . . . . . . . . . .50.5 0.5 72.0 39.4Informa . . . . . . . . . . . . .513.5 4.0 573.5 470.7ITE Group . . . . . . . . . . .202.8 -1.7 322.3 189.5ITV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .216.5 -0.3 222.0 169.5Johnston Press . . . . . . . . .3.9 0.0 8.4 3.6Mecom Group . . . . . . . .149.0 0.3 153.0 39.0

Randgold Resource . .4625.0 -27.0 5235.0 3608.0Rio Tinto . . . . . . . . . . .3205.0 1.0 3627.5 2957.5Vedanta Resources . . .1064.0 -4.0 1191.0 775.0

Inmarsat . . . . . . . . . . . .719.0 6.0 771.0 666.0Vodafone Group . . . . . .203.7 0.2 252.3 189.0

Afren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97.0 1.9 169.3 94.2BG Group . . . . . . . . . . .1178.5 -3.0 1351.5 1008.5BP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .470.2 -2.1 523.9 432.3Cairn Energy . . . . . . . . .176.2 -0.1 289.4 151.3EnQuest . . . . . . . . . . . . .112.2 1.2 147.9 111.0Ophir Energy . . . . . . . . .231.3 2.3 362.1 194.0Premier Oil . . . . . . . . . .337.6 2.4 357.7 268.1Royal Dutch Shell . . . .2387.5 -15.5 2453.0 1987.0Royal Dutch Shell . . . .2482.0 -18.0 2592.0 2077.5Soco Internationa . . . . .411.0 6.0 474.8 382.1Tullow Oil . . . . . . . . . . .706.5 9.0 1080.0 697.0

Amec . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1090.0 3.0 1262.0 1020.0Hunting . . . . . . . . . . . . .871.5 17.5 917.5 731.0Petrofac Ltd. . . . . . . . .1062.0 -11.0 1478.0 1056.0Wood Group (John) . . .745.0 12.0 835.0 634.5

Burberry Group . . . . . .1537.0 18.0 1657.0 1374.0PZ Cussons . . . . . . . . . .376.7 1.7 431.7 337.1Supergroup . . . . . . . . .1230.0 16.0 1744.0 853.5

AstraZeneca . . . . . . . .4522.0 -17.0 4823.5 3113.0BTG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .664.5 16.5 666.0 368.6Circassia Pharmac . . . .298.8 0.4 318.0 268.0Dechra Pharmaceut . . .764.5 -0.5 773.0 657.0Genus . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1155.0 5.0 1450.0 940.0GlaxoSmithKline . . . . .1441.0 11.0 1690.5 1377.0Hikma Pharmaceuti . .1656.0 3.0 1817.0 1027.0Shire Plc . . . . . . . . . . .5295.0 70.0 5300.0 2381.0

Capital & Countie . . . . .330.8 0.6 392.0 316.2Countrywide . . . . . . . . .499.1 0.1 696.0 463.0Daejan Holdings . . . . .4755.0 12.0 5125.0 3652.0F&C Commercial Pr . . . .126.4 0.1 127.7 113.7Foxtons Group . . . . . . .230.4 -1.8 398.8 229.9Grainger . . . . . . . . . . . .192.4 1.6 248.0 169.5Kennedy Wilson Eu . . .1115.0 9.0 1125.0 1000.0Redefine Internat . . . . . .51.7 0.2 61.0 43.4Savills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .612.5 4.5 679.5 571.5St. Modwen Proper . . . .372.7 0.7 418.0 297.0UK Commercial Pro . . . . .81.3 0.4 83.2 74.0Unite Group . . . . . . . . .438.5 3.4 452.3 355.6

Big Yellow Group . . . . .535.0 12.5 571.5 416.3British Land Co . . . . . . .720.0 -0.5 733.0 568.0Derwent London . . . . .2745.0 13.0 2843.0 2306.0Great Portland Es . . . . .641.0 9.0 672.5 536.5Hammerson . . . . . . . . .599.5 4.0 619.0 489.6Hansteen Holdings . . . .101.0 0.5 114.2 98.1Intu Properties . . . . . . .341.2 1.4 348.4 275.5Land Securities G . . . .1058.0 1.0 1105.0 901.5LondonMetric Prop . . . . .141.1 1.7 149.0 114.5SEGRO . . . . . . . . . . . . . .362.0 2.1 378.8 299.4Shaftesbury . . . . . . . . .673.0 3.0 693.5 579.5Workspace Group . . . .638.0 3.0 642.0 414.7

Aveva Group . . . . . . . .1620.0-548.0 2650.0 1603.0Computacenter . . . . . .650.0 18.0 718.5 505.0Fidessa Group . . . . . . .2248.0 19.0 2615.0 1895.0

Micro Focus Inter . . . . .842.5 6.0 894.0 721.5Playtech . . . . . . . . . . . . .718.0 10.5 836.5 579.0Sage Group . . . . . . . . . .382.8 -0.1 435.5 312.9Telecity Group . . . . . . . .770.5 10.0 850.0 631.0

Aggreko . . . . . . . . . . . .1624.0 -28.0 1774.0 1449.7Ashtead Group . . . . . .1028.0 7.0 1031.0 588.0Atkins (WS) . . . . . . . . .1367.0 23.0 1502.0 1110.0Babcock Internati . . . .1065.0 5.0 1297.0 1022.8Berendsen . . . . . . . . . .1015.0 3.0 1128.0 875.0Bunzl . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1608.0 -9.0 1690.0 1295.0Capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1182.0 5.0 1235.0 959.5Carillion . . . . . . . . . . . . .325.7 0.0 382.9 288.3DCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3449.0 17.0 3683.0 2467.0De La Rue . . . . . . . . . . . .747.5 4.0 1034.0 710.5Diploma . . . . . . . . . . . .685.5 7.0 775.0 600.5Electrocomponents . . .238.5 -1.4 302.0 229.9Essentra . . . . . . . . . . . .835.5 1.5 915.0 713.0Exova Group . . . . . . . . .187.0 6.0 254.0 173.1Experian . . . . . . . . . . .1066.0 5.0 1270.0 968.5G4S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .259.5 4.9 273.5 228.0Grafton Group Uni . . . . .651.5 13.5 700.0 538.0Hays . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128.4 0.5 156.0 111.5Homeserve . . . . . . . . . .320.0 5.0 350.9 228.7Howden Joinery Gr . . . .353.6 8.9 392.1 284.9Interserve . . . . . . . . . . .633.5 3.0 745.0 555.0Intertek Group . . . . . .2742.0 14.0 3392.0 2533.0Michael Page Inte . . . . .455.5 1.3 507.0 418.5Mitie Group . . . . . . . . . .305.8 4.2 345.6 283.9Northgate . . . . . . . . . . .504.5 4.0 615.5 396.0PayPoint . . . . . . . . . . .1049.0 1.0 1196.0 999.0Premier Farnell . . . . . . .189.9 0.9 240.5 177.9Regus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172.4 -0.5 234.5 170.4Rentokil Initial . . . . . . . .124.3 0.0 133.1 101.5RPS Group . . . . . . . . . . .277.8 0.4 359.6 241.0Serco Group . . . . . . . . . .315.8 1.8 574.5 304.3SIG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .176.9 0.8 216.3 164.2Travis Perkins . . . . . . .1684.0 14.0 1982.0 1574.0Wolseley . . . . . . . . . . .3276.0 29.0 3531.0 3020.0

ARM Holdings . . . . . . . .954.5 6.0 1110.0 833.5CSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .766.0 17.5 806.5 477.9Imagination Techn . . . .200.4 -3.3 352.3 159.7Pace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .306.3 -1.6 483.5 249.5Spirent Communica . . .105.0 0.1 134.8 85.9

British American . . . .3629.5 9.5 3650.0 2881.0Imperial Tobacco . . . .2753.0 49.0 2759.0 2174.0

Betfair Group . . . . . . . .1120.0 24.0 1149.0 933.5Bwin.party Digita . . . . . .99.3 3.9 133.9 80.2Carnival . . . . . . . . . . . .2383.0 8.0 2600.0 2030.0Cineworld Group . . . . .330.6 2.6 398.3 291.3Compass Group . . . . . .973.5 -2.5 1053.6 833.9Domino's Pizza Gr . . . .589.5 0.5 615.0 469.0easyJet . . . . . . . . . . . .1395.0 7.0 1827.0 1200.0Enterprise Inns . . . . . . . .117.1 -1.1 168.1 114.0FirstGroup . . . . . . . . . . . .121.7 -1.5 145.9 111.1Go-Ahead Group . . . .2359.0 56.0 2407.0 1532.0Greene King . . . . . . . . .792.5 7.5 925.0 764.0InterContinental . . . .2349.0 24.0 2475.0 1771.9International Con . . . . .374.0 -0.3 454.6 314.4Ladbrokes . . . . . . . . . . .129.8 2.1 201.7 127.3Marston's . . . . . . . . . . . .146.3 -0.7 163.5 138.2Merlin Entertainm . . . .353.0 10.9 391.5 328.7Millennium & Copt . . . .572.0 -2.0 615.5 543.0Mitchells & Butle . . . . .405.0 2.3 491.3 373.0National Express . . . . .247.5 0.7 304.9 246.3Rank Group . . . . . . . . . .160.0 1.0 175.8 128.0Restaurant Group . . . . .656.5 23.5 713.0 518.0

Stagecoach Group . . . . .367.2 0.4 399.3 322.4Thomas Cook Group . . .135.0 3.5 189.0 115.2TUI Travel . . . . . . . . . . . .360.1 -1.6 450.0 353.5Wetherspoon (J.D. . . . .770.0 8.0 882.0 680.0Whitbread . . . . . . . . . .4247.0 -81.0 4487.0 2937.0William Hill . . . . . . . . . .346.3 3.3 431.2 320.3

Abcam . . . . . . . . . . . . . .427.5 -2.3 524.5 350.5Advanced Computer . . .117.0 0.0 127.8 82.5Advanced Medical . . . .122.3 0.8 130.5 86.0Alternative Netwo . . . .493.0 -11.0 585.5 326.8Amerisur Resource . . . . .61.3 -1.0 66.3 42.3Arbuthnot Banking . . .1134.5 0.0 1490.0 906.3ASOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2333.0 -171.0 7050.0 2176.0Avanti Communicat . . .183.3 -3.0 328.0 170.3Blinkx . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43.0 0.8 230.0 30.5Brooks Macdonald . . .1447.5 0.0 1809.0 1302.0Clinigen Group . . . . . . .469.8 3.5 675.0 359.3Daisy Group . . . . . . . . . .188.3 0.4 204.0 137.0Dart Group . . . . . . . . . .224.3 0.8 300.5 190.0DX (Group) . . . . . . . . . . .116.0 1.0 145.3 113.0EMIS Group . . . . . . . . . .755.5 -15.5 773.5 562.5Faroe Petroleum . . . . . .112.0 4.5 153.0 104.0First Derivatives . . . . . .945.0 -5.0 1583.0 757.5Gemfields . . . . . . . . . . . .49.0 0.8 52.3 24.0GLOBO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49.0 -0.3 87.5 40.8GW Pharmaceutical . . .463.0 1.3 523.5 70.8Hargreaves Servic . . . . .615.5 -11.0 904.0 613.5IGas Energy . . . . . . . . . .99.5 0.5 160.3 98.0Iomart Group . . . . . . . .274.5 -4.5 319.0 206.1James Halstead . . . . . .290.5 2.3 334.8 260.3M. P. Evans Group . . . . .472.4 -0.1 493.5 430.3Majestic Wine . . . . . . . .397.8 7.8 590.0 386.0Monitise . . . . . . . . . . . . .46.5 3.0 80.0 40.5Mulberry Group . . . . . .768.5 18.5 1075.0 636.5Nanoco Group . . . . . . . .108.8 0.0 184.3 86.0Nichols . . . . . . . . . . . . .995.3 5.3 1237.0 919.5Numis Corporation . . . .252.3 9.8 344.8 219.8Pan African Resou . . . . . .14.3 0.3 16.5 12.0Parkmead Group (T . . .216.0 4.8 294.5 163.1Plexus Holdings . . . . . .248.5 1.5 321.0 236.5Polar Capital Hol . . . . . .421.3 -4.5 563.0 405.0Prezzo . . . . . . . . . . . . . .137.0 -3.0 162.0 113.0Quadrise Fuels In . . . . . .36.5 0.3 49.0 15.5Quindell . . . . . . . . . . . . .170.0 -2.0 660.0 158.5Rockhopper Explor . . . . .91.5 1.0 158.5 86.0RWS Holdings . . . . . . . .760.0 6.0 1018.0 731.5Secure Trust Bank . . . .2315.0 45.0 2975.0 2150.0Smart Metering Sy . . . .345.5 2.3 425.5 292.5Songbird Estates . . . . . .252.1 -0.4 259.8 142.5Staffline Group . . . . . . .861.0 0.0 1010.0 469.5Telit Communicati . . . . .277.3 7.3 286.8 101.0Tungsten Corporat . . . .380.8 -5.5 399.0 203.0Utilitywise . . . . . . . . . . .288.5 2.3 370.0 145.5Velocys . . . . . . . . . . . . .228.3 1.5 236.3 125.0Vertu Motors . . . . . . . . . .56.3 -0.5 66.5 50.3Young & Co's Brew . . . .982.3 -0.5 1097.5 915.0

Bwin.party Digital . . . . . . . . . . . .99.3 4.1NMC Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .479.0 3.8Restaurant Group . . . . . . . . . . .656.5 3.7Moneysupermarket.c . . . . . . . . .195.0 3.4Exova Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187.0 3.3Merlin Entertainme . . . . . . . . . .353.0 3.2Intermediate Capit . . . . . . . . . .403.9 3.0Brewin Dolphin Hol . . . . . . . . . .276.9 2.9Brit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .248.0 2.9Computacenter . . . . . . . . . . . . .650.0 2.9

Aveva Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1620.0 -25.3Kazakhmys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .280.4 -2.6Associated British . . . . . . . . . . .2621.0 -2.1Ocado Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .306.6 -2.0Whitbread . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4247.0 -1.9African Barrick Go . . . . . . . . . . .226.2 -1.7Aggreko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1624.0 -1.7Imagination Techno . . . . . . . . .200.4 -1.6JPMorgan Emerging . . . . . . . . .590.0 -1.3FirstGroup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121.7 -1.2

Risers Fallers

MAIN CHANGES UK 350

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AIM 50

Tsy 4.000 13 . . . . . .100.08 0.17 101.5 90.8Tsy 5.000 14 . . . . . .100.00 -0.02 104.6 100.0Tsy 4.750 15 . . . . . .104.20 0.02 108.5 104.2Tsy 8.000 15 . . . . . .109.32 -0.01 116.7 109.3Tsy 2.500 16 . . . . . . .334.71 0.04 343.7 334.2Tsy 4.000 16 . . . . . .106.32 0.08 109.5 106.1Tsy 8.750 17 . . . . . . .122.00 0.07 128.9 121.8Tsy 1.250 17 . . . . . . .109.14 0.08 113.1 108.5Tsy 5.000 18 . . . . . . .112.36 0.12 116.0 111.7Tsy 3.750 19 . . . . . . .109.61 0.16 111.6 108.0Tsy 4.500 19 . . . . . . .112.47 0.14 115.2 111.2Tsy 4.750 20 . . . . . . .115.27 0.15 117.9 113.5Tsy 2.500 20 . . . . . .366.63 0.13 370.8 358.4Tsy 8.000 21 . . . . . . .137.77 0.11 141.7 135.7Tsy 4.000 22 . . . . . . .113.10 0.16 113.8 109.1Tsy 1.875 22 . . . . . . .122.42 0.10 124.3 118.8Tsy 2.500 24 . . . . . .339.34 0.08 340.8 320.1Tsy 5.000 25 . . . . . .123.43 0.15 124.6 116.7Tsy 1.250 27 . . . . . . .123.38 0.09 124.2 115.5Tsy 4.250 27 . . . . . . .117.75 0.15 119.1 109.1Tsy 6.000 28 . . . . . .139.14 0.15 140.7 129.7Tsy 4.750 30 . . . . . . .125.10 0.15 126.9 115.7Tsy 4.125 30 . . . . . . .325.21 -0.01 327.9 303.4Tsy 4.250 32 . . . . . . .118.97 0.09 120.9 109.3Tsy 1.250 32 . . . . . . .130.48 -0.03 131.9 120.3Tsy 4.250 36 . . . . . . .119.77 0.01 122.1 109.2Tsy 4.750 38 . . . . . .129.66 -0.02 132.5 118.0Tsy 0.625 40 . . . . . .124.30 -0.23 126.5 110.9Tsy 4.500 42 . . . . . . .127.12 -0.07 130.4 114.7Tsy 3.500 45 . . . . . .107.64 -3.95 110.5 100.6Tsy 4.025 49 . . . . . .125.45 -0.14 129.3 111.1

INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING

GENERAL RETAILERS

SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERV.

LIFE INSURANCE

WORLD INDICES

FTSE 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6806.96 7.34 0.11FTSE 250 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15711.85 90.50 0.58FTSE All-Share . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3627.85 6.68 0.18FTSE AIM All-Share . . . . . . . . . . . . . 776.94 0.87 0.11

S&P 500 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1985.54 -11.91 -0.60Dow Jones I.A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,987.51 -61.49 -0.36Nasdaq Composite . . . . . . . . . . . . 4567.60 -24.21 -0.53Xetra DAX. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9651.13 -40.15 -0.41

CAC 40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4441.70 0.80 0.02Swiss Market Index . . . . . . . . . . . . 8795.93 -33.08 -0.37ISEQ Overall Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4901.74 12.65 0.26FTSEurofirst 300 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1382.98 0.27 0.02

Hang Seng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24595.32 -67.32 -0.27Shanghai Composite . . . . . . . . . . . 2331.95 20.27 0.88Straits Times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3345.55 -1.73 -0.05Sao Paulo Bovespa . . . . . . . . . . . 58337.29 138.63 0.24

Price Chg %chg Price Chg %chg Price Chg %chg Price Chg %chg

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 201415MARKETScityam.com

Page 16: Cityam 2014-09-15

T HIS week will see the mostcrucial poll in the UnitedKingdom for centuries – apoll on whether the UK willstay as it is or Scotland will

choose to leave the Union. Thebusiness world has led with theview that “this is a matter for theScottish people”. But this is also acop out. Business must make itsvoice heard – not in the sense ofexpressing a view on how peopleshould vote, but rather to ensurethat, as far as possible, voters areinformed of the consequences oftheir actions.

Individuals make complex andsignificant decisions all the time,such as making a lifestyle changeor giving up highly-paid jobs to do

T HE WAY we handle uncertaintydetermines our future. Many ofmankind’s self-createdproblems, from financial crisesto environmental devastation,

arise from poor analysis of future risksand rewards. We lack confidence in ourtools for handling uncertainty. Withinthe financial sector we’ve been partiallyburned by derivatives, mark-to-market,or value-at-risk. Scotland’sindependence referendum mayrepresent the latest reassessment offuture scenarios, but there will be manymore. We need to improve our toolkits.We need to improve our data.

“Wicked problems” is a phrase popu-larised in the 1970s to describe messy,circular, and aggressive problems.According to Laurence J Peter of ThePeter Principle fame, “some problemsare so complex that you have to be high-ly intelligent and well informed just tobe undecided about them.” In our book,The Price of Fish: A New Approach ToWicked Economics And BetterDecisions, Ian Harris and I explore howwe can meld four “streams” in any com-plex scenario – choice, economics, sys-tems and evolution – to make better

cityam.com/forumTHEFORUM

Twitter: @cityamforum on the web: cityam.com/forum or by email: [email protected]? Disagree? Got a sharp comment?The Forum wants you to join the debate. Top responses will be reprinted in The Forum.

16 MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014

nMICHAEL MAINELLI

Why spurious financial precision maybe killing our markets – and our fish

decisions about wicked problems. Wealso make suggestions. One such pro-posal is Confidence Accounting.

Confidence Accounting encouragescompanies and audit firms to useranges, rather than discrete numbers,for major accounting entries. In a worldof Confidence Accounting, the results ofaudits would be presentations of distri-butions for major entries in financialstatements. Ranges provide a fairer rep-resentation of results and valuations,reduce the number of footnotes, and aidmeasuring audit quality over time.

One way to understand the impor-tance of Confidence Accounting is totalk about fish. Back in the early 1900s,on rumours that sardines had disap-peared from their traditional waters inMonterey, California, traders started tobid up the price of tinned sardines; a

vibrant market ensued and the price ofa tin of sardines soared. A classic bubble.One day, after some successful trades, abuyer chose to treat himself to an expen-sive snack; he opened a tin and ate thesardines. They tasted awful, so the buyercalled the seller and told him the sar-dines were no good. The seller said, “youdon’t understand. Those are not eatingsardines, they are trading sardines.”Ultimately, sardines off California werefished out by the 1950s. Had marketsworked well on their own, and had peo-ple really known the price of fish overspace and time, we wouldn’t have over-fished the North Sea, the Grand Banksof Newfoundland, or Monterey.

Virtually all accounting entriesrequire judgement, meaning that arange of values might apply. Accountingpractices exclude the truth behind over-ly-precise specific values. Over-precisionforces companies to value assets, such asfish or fossil fuels, at higher or lower val-ues than they might think they areworth in the longer term, to the detri-ment of other natural resources or fossilfuels. A good example has been thestranded fossil fuel assets argument: ifperhaps four-fifths of the fossil fuels on

balance sheets are unburnable in thelong term (like those fish were inedible),why are they calculated at full currentprices? Using specific values whenranges are needed exacerbates volatilityin markets and fish stocks.

There are numerous “judgementcalls” in financial statements – revenuerecognition, tax liabilities, goodwill andintangibles, asset valuations, share-based payments, and management andperformance fees. ConfidenceAccounting would have these judge-ment calls represented as ranges. Thereare complicated ways of expressingranges, such as candlestick diagramscommon among traders, time-based fancharts for economists, and box andwhisper diagrams for scientists. Thereare simple ways. Simply state thebottom value, the expected value, andthe top value, with a judgement on thelikelihood that the value is in thatrange.

Confidence Accounting may bestarted as easily as having audit commit-tees ask their auditors to discuss theaccounts using ranges. A simpleapproach to ranges can go a long way inhelping to incorporate knowledge and

experience in discussions between auditcommittees and their auditors. AndyHaldane of the Bank of England hasremarked that his “hope is that this pro-posal moves our thinking a step closertowards a set of accounting standardsfor major entities that put systemic sta-bility centre stage. In the light of the cri-sis, anything less than a radical rethinkwould be negligent.”

Much of the tension for accountantshas been generated by single historiccost numbers colliding with the needfor judgement about the future. Moretension has been generated when his-toric and current accounts collide withfuture-looking risk scenarios. Much ofthe tension is released when ranges arerecognised as fundamental to any dis-cussion about financial reporting.Perhaps when we relax a little aboutprecision, we can gain confidence aboutour decisions on markets and fish.

Michael Mainelli is emeritus professor ofcommerce at Gresham College, executive chair-man of Z/Yen Group, and principal adviser toLong Finance. His latest book is The Price ofFish: A New Approach to Wicked Economicsand Better Decisions, co-written with IanHarris (Nicholas Brealey Publishing, £12.99).

something completely different,like working for charity ortravelling the world. But they do sowith full knowledge of thefinancial consequences of theirdecision. If the Scottish electorateis prepared to pay a price to beindependent then so be it, but it isimportant they know what thatprice is. And here, business cannot

be silent.In the event of a Yes vote, there

are many uncertainties. What willthe currency be, will Scotland be inthe EU, will there be significantchanges in tax or regulation?Should Scotland vote forindependence, these matters willbe settled – in time. And this is theproblem.

The “time” could be only months,but other matters may not besettled for years. Meanwhile,businesses cannot stop the clock asthey make decisions on where tolocate, and whether to expand orcontract in a particular area.

Only this week, Amazonannounced its intention to move itsoperations from Slough to

Shoreditch. The more certaintythere is, the easier the decision.Global financial institutionscurrently looking to establish a newUK office may have a shortlist ofLondon or Glasgow – both excellentlocations. But with the possibilitythat Scotland may not remain inthe UK, or indeed the EU, there isan immediate question mark aboutbusiness tax and regulation. It maybe stating the obvious, but the lackof certainty would count againstScotland – it may not be decisive,but in practice most locationdecisions are finely balanced.London becomes the safer choice.

Of course, Scotland could thriveas a small independent nation –there are smaller wealthy countries

in the EU. But that is not the issue.The question is whether the hugedisruption and uncertainty thatwould be created by a vote forindependence is a price worthpaying – and there should be nodoubt that the uncertainty anddisruption would be huge. And thatprice would not just be onScotland; government andbusinesses throughout the UK thatoperate in Scotland would have todevote substantial resources todealing with the consequences ofthe split. Yes this would providejobs – but not the right sort.

May the Scottish electorate votewisely.

Mark Boleat is policy chairman at theCity of London Corporation.

CITYMATTERS

nMARK BOLEAT

Staying silent about the real price of Scottish independence is a cop out

Avoid high charges and poor service when making international payments

Page 17: Cityam 2014-09-15

17MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014

Devo max[Re: Devo max is a cheap last-gasp offer – but afederal UK may be the happy result, Thursday]I share Mark Field’s concerns about the clumsyway further Scottish devolution has beenproposed. It feels like, as there is no fear amongpoliticians that England will hold its ownindependence referendum, it will never be giventhe concessions received by Scotland, Wales andNorthern Ireland. In the event of a No vote, we’llneed a constitutional convention to resolve someof these issues forever. England should get itsown parliament, with the same powers andresponsibilities as elsewhere in the UK. Name withheld

Long-term ScotsReading from London, it’s hard to believe thatanyone would vote for independence, given thefurore over the economic cost, the currencydifficulties, the failure to tackle the fiscalimplications, and much more. But despite pollsshowing that Scots do recognise thatindependence would not make them better off,the vote is still likely to be extremely close. Oneargument is that a wave of nationalist emotionmeans they just don’t care. More likely, however,is that the Scots are doing what politicians fail todo – thinking in the long term, where Scotland’schances are much better with the right policies.Robert Dowd

Are business leaders right to intervene in theScottish independence referendum debate?

YESBusiness interventions over Scottish independence are not just tacticallyright, they’re morally virtuous. Until recently, many chief executives kept outof the debate, fearing their reputations would be trashed by so-calledcybernats (cyber nationalists). Two things changed. First, a Yes vote nowlooks a serious risk. Business leaders who fear their shareholders willsignificantly suffer have a duty to speak out – we want transparency andhonesty from companies. Second, businesses have recently been giving theirviews simultaneously – often major competitors at the same time – makingthem less susceptible to individual boycotts. On Friday, Jim Sillars, a formerSNP deputy leader, claimed there would be a “day of reckoning” againstcompanies who spoke out against independence. I doubt it. In generalelections, I’ve seen no evidence that policy interventions damage sales.Alex Singleton is associate director of The Whitehouse Consultancy andauthor of The PR Masterclass.

Alex Singleton

NOWill Roberts

Understandably, many business leaders have concerns about the Scottishreferendum and the prospect of the UK breaking up. But they shouldn’t givein to the temptation of expressing it publicly without careful thought.Strong views can alienate just as many people as they please. With currentpolls too close to call, a company’s reputation with customers north of theborder could be at risk. It’s true for No voters as well – no one likes feelinglike they are being lectured to, especially when companies make claimsabout independence that are not backed up. UK businesses should becareful about adding their voice to the debate, and ensure that they arerespectful of audiences in Scotland. Investors, meanwhile, are rarelyenamored with chief executives whose focus wanders off the core business.Unless Scottish independence is truly fundamental to a company’sperformance, corporate reputation might be better served by staying quiet.Will Roberts is a director of Corporate Reputation Consulting.

nJON MOULTON

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60 per cent of Japanese firms’ profits now comefrom overseas sales. And that number is going up.@ianbremmer

Women support No in ICM poll 55 to 45 per cent.Men, by 52 to 48 per cent, are in favour of Yes.@MSmithsonPB

Views of Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and DanskeBank should have Scots thinking seriously overindy ref. Worrying@GABaines

“Never let fear decide your future”.@LordAshcroft

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Crowdfunding: Bewarethe celebrities offeringinvestors strange deals

For competitive rates and expert guidance:0808 115 3718

www.cityam.com/intpay

real estate startup EasyProperty. SirStelios has offered 1.5 per cent owner-ship in the new company for a substan-tial £1m. The business is not trading, sohe’s valuing it at £67m, which youmust assume he thinks is a great dealfor him as he clearly does not need themoney.

Recently Crowdcube, the largest UKequity crowdfunding platform in termsof investor numbers, which startedtrading over three years ago, had raised£3.8m from Balderton Capital as part ofa £5m funding round at a pre-moneyvaluation of £14.5m. The remaining£1.2m of shares were offered for sale ontheir own platform and sold out withintwo hours! This was despite these beingnon-voting shares with no pre-emptionrights, and the Balderton investmentbeing in preference shares with bettereconomic rights.

Crowdfunding seems very excitingwhen you invest, but investors shouldtake time to notice that they lack theability to stop managers milking thecompany, or risk being diluted bystrange deals with their tiny stakesbeing powerless and sometimes vote-less. All entirely legal, of course, but sofar there has been very little effort putinto developing sensible corporate gov-ernance for such companies – althoughthere are people working on it. Venturecapitalists worked out the protectionsyou need years ago – crowdfunders typ-ically get none of these. Crowdfundinginvestors deserve a fair deal. Caveatinvestor.

Jon Moulton is founder of Better Capital,and an investor in the crowdfunding plat-forms Funding Circle and InvestingZone.

I AM a great fan of crowdfunding –it really is a cheap way of usingmodern technology to enableinvestors, including very smallones, to invest in all manner of

things. So what can go wrong?Well, the regulators can stop it as

effectively as they have made shareoffers to the public so infeasible thateven Royal Mail could not be sold to itsowners by public offer. The stoppingprocess has started.

It seems very strange to me that youcan lose your house at Ladbrokes in afew minutes, but you cannot buy £500worth of shares in a company you like(no matter how well presented)without being a “sophisticatedinvestor” or taking advice (how?), orcertifying it is less than 10 per cent ofyour investible assets (a nebulous andtransient calculation). It wouldmightily simplify matters and show aproper sense of proportion if the FCAtook the view that individual invest-ments under £5,000, say, were simplyunregulated.

The regulator makes it clear thatinvesting in early stage investments isvery risky and they are right on that.However, while their risk focus meansmore unread risk statements, keyinvestment risks are often notaddressed at all.

So far, the debt crowdfunding worldhas been more orderly, with it simplybeing easier to understand the proposi-tion and documents being more stan-dardised.

But it transpires that investors incrowdfunding equities like stories andpersonalities. The crowdfunding plat-forms like them too, because it pulls inthe investors. Celebrity types have spot-ted this demand and, as is normal inmarkets, are testing the limits ofexploitation.

The hardly hard-up founder of Easy-Jet, Sir Stelios Haji-Iannou, (worth$2.5bn, according to Forbes) is goingdown the equity crowdfunding routeto finance his latest venture – online

Page 18: Cityam 2014-09-15

18MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014 cityam.com

Harriet Green talks overworn t-shirts, sceptical VCs, and pub deals with Sir Chris Evans

ENTREPRENEURS

THE BUSINESS BOFFIN

THEY say if you don’t ask, youdon’t get – and no one couldaccuse professor Sir Chris Evansof being shy about coming

forward. Today, the medical sciencesentrepreneur and government adviserhas built companies worth over £3bn,floated 20, employed over 4,000 peopleand raised over £1.2bn from investorsand governments across 30 countries.But the Welsh pragmatist didn’t startout with a vision, or even a plan.

Back in 1983, he was a young professorat the University of Michigan, earningenough money to pay his rent, but notenough to stop him wearing “the samet-shirt day in, day out”. But it wasn’t thelack of cash that bothered him so muchas how it was being used elsewhere. “Isaw my prof give an envelope with$1,000 in it to a speaker at a seminar. Hetold me it was his stipend for ‘comingall this way and giving us that greattalk.’ ‘Yeah,’ I said, ‘but it wasn’t verygreat, was it? It was actually really bor-ing.’” So a hacked off Evans happenedupon his first lightbulb moment.

SOUL-SELLINGPairing his love for science with his lovefor talking, he blundered onto thespeaker circuit. “I sent letters out tobiotech companies across the country,offering to speak on my subjects –genetics, molecular biology – but only ifthey paid me $1,000. They all said yes.One even gave me $2,000.” In less than amonth, he’d made more than his$24,000 salary. And then, he started get-ting job offers. “It was judgement dayfor me. It was the early 80s and they alloffered me between $70,000 and$100,000. I sold my soul to do productapplied science, which I wanted to do.And for a huge sum of money, which Ididn’t really think about – but gladlyreceived.”

Once in the corporate environment,Evans decided he could strike deals “aswell as the marketing guys, because Iunderstood the value of what I wasdoing.” But deal-making for someoneelse only satisfied him for so long and,in 1987, he founded his first company,Enzymatics, raising £1.3m to do so andstarting what we now know as theCambridge Cluster in the UK.

These early experiences heavilyinform Evans’s advice to those whowant to “go and do their own thing”.“Go and join someone else’s firm first –and the smaller the better, becausethey’re the ones filled with perils. Andit’s no good just being a load of blokesin a room saying ‘let’s go and do this!’You’ve got to start with the technologyand the products.” And there’s an evenfranker dose of wisdom for would-beentrepreneurs: “The worst thing is youfail. And if you fail, no one’s going tolaugh at you, because no one knowswho you are, so they don’t care.” On amore positive note, Evans believes nowis the ideal time to get stuck in as anentrepreneur. “Money is waking up

again. There’s a huge amount of innova-tion and invention around the world –there are so many funds now and indi-viduals willing to invest.”

BOLDER AND BRAVERProlonged exposure to the venture capi-tal world means, however, that Evans isvery ready to criticise it – and it’s the UKhe’s really frustrated with. British com-panies are held back by a chronic lack ofmoney, he says. “It’s the sick garden syn-drome. We pull up the flowers to lookat the roots, then we wonder whythey’re sick. In America, they plant,then water them with money and leavethem to grow.” Uncertainty aroundearly-stage drug development and astring of high-profile failures have madeUK investors wary, but Evans says thisneeds to change. “We don’t have any-where near the volume of risk money

here. But we’re also suspicious and fartoo cautious.” Unlike US counterparts,British companies are never givenenough money to develop theirpipelines – “investors come in some ofthe way but don’t fully believe the busi-ness plan.”

But Evans does sing the praises ofCircassia, the biotech firm that raised£200m when it went public in March ofthis year. Backed by Invesco Perpetualand Lansdowne Partners, thecompany’s listing was the first biotechIPO since 2006, and the biggest for near-ly 15 years. “It’s the model everyoneneeds to see,” he says. “If £100m was putinto a firm during private fundingrounds, by the time they got to theirIPOs, they’d be much safer for institu-tions to buy. Then they’d perform betteron the stock market and people wouldbe more trusting. People say, ‘there are

loads of VCs in London now’, but they’renot putting up enough money. They’dsay it’s because they don’t see enoughgood projects – and that means entre-preneurs aren’t making them attractiveenough.”

A HIVE OF ACTIVITYAnd this is where Evans’s latest projectcomes in – the Life Sciences Hub inCardiff. Backed by a £100m governmentfund, the Hub was launched by Evansand the Welsh Assembly earlier thisyear. Designed to boost the activity ofthe sector in Wales by putting business-es, advisers and funding organisationsall under one roof, Evans is optimisticthat this orchestrated “ecosystem” willaid progress, and even help Wales “takeon Cambridge”.

“There’s nothing in Wales. No finan-cial institutions, investors... I’ve done

£120m transactions sitting in pubs. Butthe Hub will change that. I’ve got a per-manent team to take pitches and advisecompanies.”

Evans himself is taking a more “vision-ary” role, as he continues to back newcompanies. “I’m looking at a very bigdata cancer project at the moment.”Whether or not it’s too early for big datato be of use in healthcare is a tough callto make. “It’s a struggle to get your headround how we can use it,” says Evans,stressing that the consolidation of yearsof data will, of course, be valuable, butit’s whether anyone can find a way toanalyse what are currently incompre-hensible volumes. “I’ll decide by nextyear on this project. I’d need to put inhundreds of millions. Big data is goingto happen, but what I’ve got to decide iswhether, at the moment, this sort ofthing is too bold.”

Companies: Excalibur, Merlin,Arthurian Life Sciences,Chiroscience, Celsis, Piramed,Vectura and BiovexJob title: ChairmanAge: 57Born: Port TalbotLives: The CotswoldsStudied: Microbiology at ImperialCollege LondonDrinking: Beer and red wineEating: Steak, fish and lots of greensCurrently reading: I rarely read novels. Lots of magazines Favourite business book: Don’t haveoneTalents: Shooting most things longrangeHeroes: Barry John, Jimi Hendrix andKing ArthurFirst ambition: To be a scientist anddiscover something usefulMotto: “There’s always a way!”Most likely to say: “If we don’t do itnow, we’re buggered”Least likely to say: “Oh well, let’s justgo with the flow”Awards: Knighthood, OBE, SCI Medal

CHRIS EVANSCV

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Evans at the newLife Sciences Hubin Cardiff

Page 19: Cityam 2014-09-15

19MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014 cityam.com

MARKETINGTHE WEEK IN BRIEF

Marketersshould alreadybe thinkingabout how theycould use theApple Watch,says DarinBrown

Channel 4 chief executive David Abraham last weekannounced that the broadcaster is to scrap its existing 4oDonline streaming service, and replace it with a new digitalhub. All 4, the new service, will combine the catch-upfunction of 4oD with live streaming of its various channels,as well as a range of dedicated online shows. The move ispart of the broadcaster’swider efforts to stayconnected with lucrativeyounger audiences, who areseen as steadily drifting awayfrom TV sets. The age groupcommands a healthyadvertising premium.

Channel 4 to create new streaming hub

Publicis-owned media agency ZenithOptimedia has hiredGrant Millar as its new UK chief executive, reporting toglobal managing partner and UK chairman Belinda Rowe.Millar joins from Dentsu Aegis Network, where he waspresident of global clients, overseeing accounts includingMasterCard and Mondelez and driving the profit and lossaccounts for Dentsu agencies Carat, Vizeum, Isobar andPosterscope. Rowe said: “Grant is one of the key figures inthe UK media industry, and we are absolutely thrilled thathe is now going to lead ZenithOptimedia in the UK. Hehas an amazing track record, with proven results indriving results for clients, new business and agencydevelopment.”

ZenithOptimedia hires new UK chief

European Commission antitrust chief Joaquin Almunialast week surprised Europe’s tech industry byannouncing that the Commission’s four-yearinvestigation into Google’s search and advertisingbusiness is to re-open. Speaking to Bloomberg TV, hesaid: “In this investigation, we received a lot ofcomplaints. We have been trying to obtain from Googleproposals to overcome the difficulties and the concerns.Now with the last version of proposals we came back tothe complainants.”

Google antitrust investigation to re-open

Reebok’s gritty I’ll Show You the Future TV ad, createdby The Rig Out and creative director Glenn Kitson,takes us back to the sports brand’s roots up north(Bolton, Lancashire to be specific). But instead ofdwelling in nostalgia, the piece’s voiceover tells theaudience that exciting new things (music, stories) arebeing created every day. Its tone is slightly evocativeof an early Arctic Monkeys track, and Reebok Classictrainers are subtlety, stylishly placedthroughout.

Ad of the week

The Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board (Barb), whichprovides the official viewing figures for televisionaudiences across the UK, last week announced that it willsoon capture views on iPad and Android tablet devices. Themeasurement solution has been developed in associationwith Kantar Media. Justin Sampson, chief executive ofBarb, said: “The ability to track how our panel memberswatch television on their tablets is a great step forward andanother staging post for the delivery of Project Dovetail [itsattempt to develop full cross-platform reporting]. It is alsothe catalyst for us to build a new panel of homes that havebroadband connections but no TV sets.”

Barb to include tablet views

W PP HAS been rapidly building upits digital presence in recentyears, partly by acquiringsmaller agencies worldwide and

folding them into POSSIBLE. Darin Brown,POSSIBLE’s Europe, Middle East and Africachief executive, talks to City A.M. aboutcreating digital-focused advertising, andwhy brands are increasingly looking atinteractive campaigns.

You’ve worked on both TV and digitalcampaigns. What are the key differences?I’m not sure it’s right to think about it asone or the other – we’re seeing the ongoingblending of different media and technolo-gies at the moment. But the key distinctionis whether companies see digital as mis-sion-critical. With fast-moving consumergoods firms (FMCG), for example, you stillfeel like TV is very much the dominantchannel.

Does it still feel like you’re swimmingupstream with digital?FMCG firms all want to get smarter aboutit, but they still have to go through theintermediary of grocery stores for transac-tions, so they use TV to reach a mass audi-ence and hope the message holds through.But with, say, the travel and automotiveindustries, they need a kick-ass digital strat-egy just to stay competitive. Everyone bookstravel on the internet, and the first placeyou go when buying a car is the company’swebsite.

At POSSIBLE, our focus is on companieswith digital as their core platform – TV isthere as a support, but they need to leadwith digital.

You’ve done some work on interactivegaming campaigns for brands. Will “gam-

excited by things like near field communi-cation and location targeting. We’ll get to apoint where messages can be delivered at acertain time of day, or while I’m walkingpast a particular store.

Now Apple’s Watch is out, will wearablesbe the next advertising frontier?The smartest thing marketeers could doright now is to think about how they canmake use of the Apple Watch, as well as theMotorola and other Android alternatives.The first movers in advertising industryoften get a lot of brand credit. Think aboutNike+ and how it made use of the data andcommunity aspects of running. A lot ofother people came along later, but Nikewas able to gain a lot of brand equity andlove first.

To create things like that, you’ve reallygot to challenge beliefs about what’s nor-mal and possible – it involves being almostdelusionally optimistic about the future.

You’ve worked in North America andEurope. Are things very different there?I think the internet acts as a kind ofleveller, meaning people tend to thinkabout a lot of the same things worldwidewhen it comes to digital. But one big differ-ence from a business perspective is the waybudgets are organised.

In the US, you have instant scale – every-one speaks the same language, and clientdigital budgets are organised at scale. InEurope, most companies have left digital ata country level – it’s almost impossible toget clients to lift their budgets out of coun-try level. I think this will change, as morecompanies realise there are inefficienciesto being organised in this way.

ification” live up to its considerable hype?We’re moving away from just pushing mes-sages at people in advertising. It’s moreabout enabling them to interact withfirms, giving the brand utility and purpose.We built a game called My Little Tesco forthe Hungarian market, which allows you torun a virtual Tesco store, from the buyingprocess all the way to filling up the shelvesand decorating it. It went completely viral.

It’s crazy when you think about how thiscould integrate with Tesco’s loyalty pro-gramme. Real world purchases could startto affect the gaming experience, and vice-versa – you’re blending digital with physi-cal. Brands lobby Tesco for shelf space instores, could they do this in the digitalworld?

Is it fair to say that interactive marketingis the future?I think TV consumers can pretty muchidentify your strategy now. They’re so usedto it that they know exactly how you’re try-ing to sell to them. There are still timeswhen it works, but it’s not always got thesame value as providing a useful service orbuilding loyalty through gaming.

Mobile ad spend hasn’t quite kept pacewith consumers. Are marketers anycloser to cracking mobile advertising?There are a couple of things going on here.First, the numbers don’t always include thedevelopment cost brands put into apps. It’snot paid media, so it doesn’t show up inthe ad spend figures, but I’d argue that itcan be just as important.

But I still think most would agree thatmarketeers aren’t making the most ofmobile. People continue to push the tradi-tional paradigm of glossy banner ads – themodels are still flawed in many cases. I get

OURDIGITALFUTURELiam Ward-Proud talks gamificationand apps with Darin Brown, the Europe, Middle East and Africa chief executive atWPP agency POSSIBLE

@LiamWardProud

Page 20: Cityam 2014-09-15

shower shared between two cabins, werebeing cleaned inside and out – “so ourguests can always take goodphotographs”, he explained. At the frontof the train were swish modern BolshoiClass compartments with double bedsand an en suite toilet and shower.

I caught up with the group walkingtowards the city with local guide Irena.Siberia may conjure an empty freezingwasteland to us, but almost 25 millionpeople live there in an area around thesize of China.

Down by the river promenade, thespring sun was enlivening everyone’sspirits. Sitting on the open deck of a largepleasure boat I fell into a backslappingbeer-fuelled chat with some youngRussian lads about football and popmusic.

On my last night aboard the train Ireturned to my compartment tipsy froma vodka tasting evening with Larissa andthe group.

As the train approached Irkutsk, Ipopped back to the compartment for a laststare into the birch forests. The monotonyhad become magical, the carriageshomely. What a wrench to leave for my six-hour flight back to Moscow.

A stunningly beautiful railway voyage intoRussia’s cold, sparse heart, by Richard Green

The 4,736 mile journey from Moscow to Beijing can take up to 16 days on a sightseeing train

NEED TOKNOW:

An epic Trans-Siberian adventure

B irch trees and patches of springsnow flickered past the trainwindow. This was slow travel at itsbest, where the chief thrill is the

journey itself: cosy carriages, on boardcamaraderie, and edging forward throughthe vastness of Russia.

From Moscow to Beijing is a journey of4,736 miles, which takes six days on an“ordinary” through train, or 16 on theTsar’s Gold tourist train, which makessightseeing stops along the way.

This German-run “cruising on wheels”experience is for people who prefereverything pre-booked and arranged inadvance and don’t fancy tackling thelanguage barrier on regular Russian trains.

I boarded the Tsar’s Gold train inYekaterinburg, just east of the UralMountains, for a three-night ride toIrkutsk, not really knowing what to expect.

As we chugged out of the city I passedthe tiny kitchen at the end of the carriage

and entered the toasty dining car where Imet a jolly group of about 20 Englishspeakers. Most passengers on the train areGerman, but the “English” group on thistrip included Brits, Danes, Dutch, Italians,Americans, and a Spaniard. We weretogether for meals and tours.

It was nice to get warm, eat a hearty mealof fish salad, cabbage soup and “beef inRussian Monastic Manner”, and move onfrom the Yekaterinburg gloom where, in1918, Tsar Nicholas II and his family wereshot, mutilated and dumped down a well.

From Larissa, our guide, I learned that itwasn’t just the Imperial family who faceda doomed eastward journey during the20th century.

“Siberia has been a place of exile for 300years, with perhaps 21m inmates passingthrough the gulags in total,” she said. Themajority of people were sent there duringStalin’s time. “Even on the trains therewere gun emplacements on the top of the

carriages and hooks underneath to killanyone trying to escape”.

I wouldn’t fancy anyone’s chances in thiswilderness. Between the cities there wasbarely a sign of life, save for a meagre hutor two every few hours.

I’d imagined the size of towns wouldgrow smaller and cuter as the traintrundled further into Siberia, butNovosibirsk, the first stop afterYekaterinburg 2,000 miles east of Moscow,was big and teeming with people. HereSoviet era buildings include the country’slargest opera house and a prominentstatue of Lenin flanked by five heroicworkers.

At Krasnoyarsk, while other passengerswere having a city tour, I asked our trainmanager Hans for a peek in all thecarriages. Squeezing past a large man witha small vacuum cleaner, I entered a“Classic” cabin – a basic compartmentwith two bench seats that convert to fourbunks, with shared toilets at either end ofthe carriage. It costs about £4,000 one-wayper person.

“All of our classes include the samemeals, and sightseeing”, said Hans, as wemoved briskly down the corridor. Thewindows of the Nostalgia cabin, with one

The Russia Experience(trans-siberian.co.uk;0845 521 2910) has a16-day Tsar’s Goldtrain journey fromMoscow to Beijing (orvice-versa) startingfrom £3580 perperson in standardcategory based ontwo people travellingexcluding flights. The“classic” journey costsfrom £2065 perperson for an 18-daytrip between StPetersburg andBeijing (again basedon two peopletravelling andexcluding flights). Ifbudget is no problemthen the top-of-the-range Golden Eaglestarts from £9695.

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21 cityam.comMONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014

OFFICEPOLITICS

available resources equally betweenthe rivals. But attempting to be fairleaves the team hamstrung.

By carefully weighing the impact offavouring one employee overanother, teams slow down their deci-sion-making process. In hyper-com-petitive settings, where teams needto focus their resources quickly andrespond to change in the competitivemarket, getting bogged down ininternal politics can sap a team’senergy and performance.

But before you issue P45s to yourportfolio of stars, there are ways tomanage teams top-heavy on talent. Agood strategy is a clear strategy. If youemploy two star individuals, you haveto make each aware of where theystand from day one. And if their per-formance still fails to leave theground, remind them that every aceneeds a wingman.

Dr Paolo Aversa is an assistant professorof strategy at Cass Business School, CityUniversity London. Why do high statusemployees underperform? A study on con-flicting status within Formula 1 racing wasco-written by Aversa, professor GinoCattani (Stern Business School, New YorkUniversity) and Dr Alessandro Marino(management department, LuissUniversity, Rome).

Have you overloaded on talent?YOU PACK your team full of high-

fliers and wait for profits totake-off. But instead of hittingnew heights, the team spirals

into a nosedive. The reason? Youoverloaded on talent. It soundscounterintuitive (surely recruiting thebrightest leads to blazing success?), butresearch tells us that individualperformance can plunge when thereare too many star performers in agalaxy.

NEED FOR SPEEDAfter analysing every Formula 1 driverin all races between 1981 and 2010,research led by Cass Business Schoolfound that individual driver perform-ance declined in teams with two topranking drivers. In other words, hiringtoo many stars can take the shine offperformance.

Away from the racetrack, the findingsshed light on why teams with high-fly-ing employees do not always hit theheights of their past promise, and whystar performers at one firm fade whenthey are lured to another. A typical mis-take in assembling a team is to considerit as a mere sum of the quality of itsindividual parts. But team success isbased on internal coordination and col-laboration. Accordingly, when two tal-

ented professionals end up in the sameorganisation, they can turn whatlooked like a promising partnershipinto a fight for internal supremacy.

SIZE SQUABBLEA clash of egos is one obvious reason forthe decline of individual and team per-formance. When there’s more than onerooster in the henhouse, managers caneither favour one of the employees – inorder to avoid internal conflict – orrefuse to side with either – thus pro-moting internal competition. But nei-ther options entails a positive outcome.The first tends to demotivate both teammembers as the favoured employeeeases off their rivalry, and the ‘defeated’colleague loses their ambition by nolonger being permitted to compete.

In the second case, where the  teampromotes internal conflict, the result-ing antagonism often leads to the fail-ure of intra-team collaboration,eventually triggering an aggressive duelto the detriment of one or both employ-ees. The clash between Steve Jobs andSteve Wozniak in the early days ofApple is a good example. The US tech-nology company looked a promisingventure from the start, but Jobs fledafter fierce confrontations with hisassociates.

Jobs’s comeback was only successfulbecause he restarted as absoluteleader, and his “team” was focused onmaking the best out of his genius,rather than being riven apart by theinternal competition between two tal-ented leaders.

PERILS OF FAVOURITESA clash of egos is an obvious hazard fora star-studded team but just as harm-ful to performance is the inefficientuse of resources. In teams with two topdogs, the obvious response is to split

Paolo Aversa explains what Formula 1 can teach business about the perils of having too many star performersBe more

productiveOmniFocus

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Too many gamesof catch up canlead to disaster

Page 22: Cityam 2014-09-15

MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 201422

SPORT cityam.com/sport @cityam_sport

England’s PaulCasey won the KLMOpen by one stroke

MANCHESTER United boss Louis vanGaal insists the blue touch paper hasfinally been lit at Old Trafford after

his rejuvenated side clinically dis-patched QPR yesterday to secure theDutch tactician’s first win since takingthe managerial reins.

Record signing Angel di Maria andAnder Herrera both netted their firstUnited goals as skipper Wayne Rooneyadded a third before break while JuanMata rounded off the goalscoring routin the second period.

And while still demanding improve-

BY ROSS MCLEAN

ment, Van Gaal firmly believes a cor-ner has been turned and United havegone some way to shrugging off theirsluggish start to the campaign, withColombia’s Radamel Falcao adding tothe sense of renaissance with a second-half cameo.

“I said before the game let’s make anew start and this was a very goodstart,” said Van Gaal. “We have alwaysto analyse what we have done and as a

WASPS boss Dai Young insists hisdecision to appoint James Haskellskipper has been vindicated afterthe England hopeful produced astoic performance as his side beatreigning champions NorthamptonSaints at Adams Park yesterday.

Quick-fire second-halftouchdowns from Ashley Johnsonand Tom Varndell laid theplatform for a 20-16 Wasps successdespite Northampton breachingthe home side’s defence late onthrough Ben Foden.

Despite losing out toSaracens in agonisingfashion during theLondon DoubleHeader in their seasoncurtain-raiser, Youngbelieves two shows of

strength have showcased thequalities Wasps possess.

“People were surprised when Ipicked James captain becauseoutwardly he can be a little bit“show business”, but inside the

camp he’s a real rolemodel,” said Young. “He

was up against playerscompeting for Englandspots but he wasoutstanding in allaspects.”

London Irishsurvived

a

late scare to post their first win ofthe season with a 20-18 win againstNewcastle Falcons at Kingston Park.

Falcons centre Juan Pablo Socinosaw his last-gasp conversion strikethe post after Sinoti Sinoti stormedover, following earlier tries fromJosh Furno and Scott Wilson.

The Exiles crossed the line twicein the second period throughFergus Mulchrone and AndrewFenby as centre Shane Geraghtykicked 10 points.

A Charlie Hodgson-inspiredSaracens thumped Harlequins 39-0at the Twickenham Stoop on Fridaynight while on Saturday LondonWelsh suffered another heavy

defeat, going down 53-26 at Bath.

BY ROSS MCLEAN

Skipper James Haskell starred asWasps edged past Northampton

MANCHESTER UNITED ...............4QPR............................................0

PREMIER LEAGUE

Young backs Haskell as Waspsbeat champions Northampton

Angel delight as DiMaria stars to triggerUnited’s renaissance

Ander Herrera, Wayne Rooney and Angel di Maria all scored as United brushed aside QPR

coach there are always pointsyou want to improve. The resultwas fantastic but we can getmuch better.”

New-look United opened thescoring in the 24th minute as DiMaria’s free-kick from 40 yardscaused uncertainty in the QPRdefence, evading all in the penal-ty area and dipping wickedlybeyond QPR keeper Rob Green.

United doubled their lead nineminutes before the break as DiMaria’s surging run from deepallowed Rooney to link withHerrera, as the 25-year-old’sdrilled effort from 18 yardsfound the bottom corner.

England captain Rooneycapped United’s impressive first-half moments before the inter-val, collecting a pass fromHerrera before crisply drivinghome from just inside the box.

QPR’s torment continued inthe second half with Mata col-lecting a low cross Di Maria andpopping a left-footed shot highpast Green on 58 minutes.

Page 23: Cityam 2014-09-15

23MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2014

Roger Federerguided Switzerland tothe Davis Cup final

Stuart Bingham thrashedMark Allen 10-3 to clinchsnooker’s Shanghai Masters

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IN BRIEF

Results

SPORTCOMMENT

JOHN INVERDALE

M any of you will have spent lastFriday hunched over acomputer pretending to beobserving market trends and

world news, when in fact you weretrying to access tickets for the RugbyWorld Cup next year. 

Some will have been lucky. One ortwo will have given up afterencountering the usual glitches thatwebsites experience at moments ofmass demand.

If you didn't manage to getthrough but then happened to go toThe Stoop on Friday evening to watchSaracens demolish Harlequins 39-0,you may have resolved not to pursuethe ticket hunt, and instead go onholiday for a few weeks next autumnto avoid a sport that cansometimes be tedious in theextreme.

It wasn't that Harlequins were poorthat made the match devoidof excitement. It was that Saracens, soclearly the superior side, came ‘to doa job’  and did it relentlesslyefficiently, clinically dismemberingtheir opposition like a surgeonperforming a routine operation.  

Scrums took an interminabletime to re-set and former Englandwinger David Strettle wassubstituted after an hourmuch to theamusement of thecrowd around mewho couldn't recallhim havingtouched the ballin the entiregame. 

I met half adozen people onSaturday who'dwatched thematch ontelevision andhad fallen asleep.In entertainmentterms, it was

truly a Friday night horror movie.Yet if you'd woken up early on

Saturday morning and watched NewZealand narrowly beat South Africain the Rugby Championship, your lostfaith in the sport would have beeninstantly restored.  

The first 20 minutes were startlingin their intensity and brilliance, butmore than anything else, in theirambition. A kaleidoscope of movesand running lines from players inalmost every position made the AllBlacks appear like the HarlemGlobetrotters, and one piece of skillfrom No8 Kieran Read to create thewinning try was rugby's equivalent of

Johan Cruyff's step-over allthose years ago. 

When played like that,rugby can be a sport like noother in terms of its richvariety and as the ultimatedefinition of teamwork. 

So as you surreptitiouslyreturn to the ticket

website this morning, bepositive. You mightspend a lot of money ona stinker that makes youwonder why on earth

you bothered, but youmight also get one ofthose sublime occasions

that makes you realise whyyou love sport at the

very highest level. And don'tworry. The boss won't mind.He's logged on too.

Forward Kieran Read in action for the All Blacks

BY ROSS MCLEAN

Reigning champion Sir Bradley Wiggins ended his Tour of Britain title defence in third place

BRITAIN’S Sir Bradley Wigginsinsists he holds the ammunition tospark success at next week’s RoadWorld Championships inPonferrada, Spain after securingthe individual time trial at the Tourof Britain in London yesterday.

Victory fired the defendingchampion to third in the general

classification ahead of the finalstage, claiming the final podiumplace as Marcel Kittel edged outMark Cavendish in a sprint finishwith Holland’s Dylan van Baarletaking overall glory. Wiggins said:“It is not a bad title defence and towin the time-trial stage confirms Iam in the shape I thought I was ingoing into the Worlds.”

WORLD No1 Rory McIlroy fell shortof his fifth win of the season afterAmerica’s Billy Horschel claimedthe Tour Championship and FedExCup title in Atlanta yesterday.

The duo were among five playerswho arrived at East Lake for theseason-ending tournament withthe knowledge victory would seethem crowned FedEx champion aswell as collect a combined £7mwinning bonus.

McIlroy was not at his mostfluent and carded a closing 71 asHorschel returned 68 from thefinal round to secure victory andadd to success at last week’s BMWChampionship in Denver andsecond place at the recent DeutscheBank Championship.

Horschel finished the TourChampionship 11-under-par, threeshots ahead of fellow American JimFuryk and McIlroy while Justin Rosewas tied on seven-under with ChrisKirk and Jason Day.

FedEx crownand fifth wineludes McIlroy

BY ROSS MCLEAN

Rugby has the ability to infuriatebut when in full flow the gamesimply inspires like few others

IN BRIEFFroome claims Vuelta second placen CYCLING: Spain’s Alberto Contadorsealed his third Vuelta a Espana titledespite losing 27 seconds to Britain’sChris Froome in yesterday’s closing timetrial stage. Froome finished second inthe general classification, one minuteand 10 seconds behind Contador.

Porter smashes new hurdles recordn ATHLETICS: European championTiffany Porter set a new British record inthe 100m hurdles at the IAAFContinental Cup in Marrakech yesterdaywhile finishing second behind DawnHarper Nelson. The 26-year-old clocked12.51 seconds to break Jessica Ennis-Hill’s previous record of 12.54.

Wiggins all set for Worlds aftertime trial glory by the Thames

cityam.com

Page 24: Cityam 2014-09-15

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