China war would go nuclear.Hunkovic 9 – American Military University (Lee J., “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America,” http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf)

A war between China, Taiwan and the U nited States has the potential to escalate into a nuclear conflict and a third world war, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could be affected by such a conflict, including Japan, both Koreas, Russia, Australia, India and Great Britain, if they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the global economy, in which the United States and China are the two most dominant members.

China’s economic course necessitates aggression, making a peaceful rise impossible.Hagedorn 10Shawn Hagedorn (independent analyst), Money Web, November 18, 2010, “The land of myth and money”, accessed November 18, 2010, http://www.moneyweb.com/mw/view/mw/en/page292681?oid=314140&sn=2009+Detail+no+image&pid=292681

3 Myth: China is committed to its peaceful rise strategy. Reality: Because it came late to the game of securing supply lines of important resources, it has closely aligned with many of the world's least credible governments and undermined the ability of the international organisations to pressure such governments toward policies more beneficial to their constituents and neighbours. Having the largest country supporting the planet's most tyrannical regimes makes the world a more dangerous place. But this would be an inherently risky strategy even by a much smaller country. There are various scenarios whereby oppressive governments are toppled and as China's softpower suffers through its increasing regional belligerence and global coddling of tyrants, replacement regimes will be well positioned to cancel or renegotiate the odious terms which were secretly negotiated to include attractive incentives for previous ruling elites. China routinely exploits the international system to secure its much needed resources; this is high wire act with no safe exit strategy . 4 Myth: The Chinese are here to help. Reality: China, due to its inherent needs, will behave as a sometimes nuanced but always determined predator . China's economic growth trajectory indicates growing resource demand pressure with global consequences. Until quite recently commentators and politicians across much of Africa would promote a simplistic logic: because Africa was colonised by Europeans and the Chinese aren't European - and it is now Africa's turn to rise -that the Chinese will help. Such sentiments now face broad resentment among African workers while China's soft-power slips globally.

Chinese Influence Growing

China influence growing in Latin America vis-à-vis US disengagementPerez 10 J.D. Yale Law School. Working with Koh former Dean of Yale Law and Legal Advisor to the State Department [David A. Perez, America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department, Spring, 2010, Harvard Latino Law Review, 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187]

Re-engaging Cuba should be used as a means to balance against China's growing influence in Latin America,

particularly in Cuba.(7A) China's Economic Interest in Latin America The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player, both economically and politically, in regions all around the world, but particularly in Latin America. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America, where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner, with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view ," whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence. n116After signing a free trade agreement with Chile, China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. China also [*224] recently displaced the U.S. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. n117 In 2000, trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion, but in 2007, that number had increased to $ 102 billion, and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis, trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years.China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. In 2007, Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. In 2008, President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. n119China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research, cross-cultural educational exchanges, as well as

political and economic exchanges. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases, American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. To be sure, the U.S. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to

come, but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. Given this diminishing economic position, Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives, such as bilateral trade agreements.

Cuba = Chinese Staging Ground

Chinese presence on Cuba used to prepare cyber and info war against the US. Building up bases nowPerez 10 J.D. Yale Law School. Working with Koh former Dean of Yale Law and Legal Advisor to the State Department [David A. Perez, America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department, Spring, 2010, Harvard Latino Law Review, 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187]

China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela, China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. n121 In fact, China purchases over 400,000 tons of Cuban sugar, as well as half its

annual output of nickel, which is Cuba's top export. n122 In 2008, on a visit to Cuba, Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments, but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. n123 Moreover, as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U.S.-Sino relations, China will have a stake in Cuba. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to

everyone; the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy.In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States, China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba, which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. Development of such capabilities may already be happening . China has a huge presence at Lourdes, a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana, where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there, including almost all of the computers, came from China.

n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic, not ideological, which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States, a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation.