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Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief กันยายน 2558
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Transcript of Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief กันยายน 2558
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ISSN: 2286-6132
ChartingThailand’sEconomy
MONTHLY
กนัยายน 2558
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DISCLAIMER All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or traform by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwisprior permission of the publisher, ChartingASEAN™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cguaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations thChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith fprimary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a positioAs such ChartingASEAN™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken bainformation that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.
ASK THE EDITORChartingASEAN™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any comments about this report, you can contact the chief editor directly at [email protected].
Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, September 2015 (Thai)Publication Date: September 3rd, 2015Number of pages: 69
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2
ansmitted in any se, without the
cannot be hat from both n to guarantee.
ased on any
questions and
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
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Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysisNote: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate
1.05 –
%
7.2%
6.3%
4.2%
5.0%5.4%
1.7%
-0.7%
7.5%
0.8%
7.3%
2.8%
0.9%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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10
(
)
2003 2014
3.4% 10 2009
2010
(V)
2011
2012 6.5%
2013 2.8%
2014
2014 0.7%
2015
6
0.9% 1.0%
2.1%
3.0%2.8%
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Last 5 Quarters
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Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis
1.06a – 2Q15
%
1.06b –
%
18.7
17.3
8.6
8.6
6.3
5.5
5.5
3.7
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.2
1.3
-0.7
-1.6
-3.9
-6.3
Hotel&Res
Construction
Financial
Transport
Other social
Health&Social
Private HH
Trading
GDP
Utilities
RealEstate
Education
PublicAdmin
Manufacture
Fishing
Mining
Agriculture
GDP
Transport
Hotel&Res
Financial
Trading
Construction
RealEstate
Other social
Utilities
Health&Social
Education
PublicAdmin
Private HH
Fishing
Mining
Manufacture
Agriculture
Stat diff
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2 2015
– 2Q15
7
2.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
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Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis
1.08a – 2Q15
%
1.08b –
%
Note: (*) C = , I = I (capital) = I (inventory) =
G = , X = ( ), M = (
25.1
4.6
2.8
2.5
1.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.3
-4.0
X (services)
G
GDP
I (capital)
I
C
M (services)
M (goods)
X (goods)
GDP
X (services)
Discrpncy
C
G
I (capital)
M (goods)
M (services)
I (Inventory)
X (goods)
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– 2Q15
.) 8
2.8
3.3
3.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-2.5
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MPI Beyond TrainingBusiness Simulation andExperiential LearningContact Us:Tel: 02 168 7245 7, 098 248 2585www.BeyondTraining.co.thFacebook: MPI Beyond [email protected]
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
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1.10 – (2000 = 100)
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
152.1161.1
174.6182.9
170.0
194.2
177.6 181.6 175.7167.7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1
1
1
1
1
2
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2000 100
10
2009
2011
2013
11
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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1.11a –
% , . . 2015
1.11b –
%
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis
29.29.6
6.13.73.02.12.0
-0.2-2.4-2.5-2.8
-4.3-4.6-5.7-5.8-6.5-6.9-7.7
-11.0-17.8
-27.6
PetroleumChemicalVehiclesPaper
Metal productsFood & Bev
TobaccoFurnitureApparel
Rubber&PlasticMachineries
MineralWood productsPrecision instru
LeatherElectricalTextiles
Basic MatTransport Equip
ElectronicOffice automate -
ChemicalElectricalElectronicVehicles
Metal productsApparel
Precision instruFood & Bev
PaperLeather
FurnitureRubber&Plastic
Basic MatPetroleum
MineralTextiles
Wood productsOffice automate
MachineriesTobacco
Transport Equip
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. .
. .
–
, . . 2015
12
13.310.0
8.88.5
7.65.8
5.13.22.92.62.62.01.6
0.4-3.2-3.4
-8.4-10.3-10.5
-12.214.1
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1% . .
1.12a –
%
1.12b –
%
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Rubber&PlasticElectronicTextiles
Wood productsElectricalFurnitureBasic Mat
Metal productsLeather
Office automateFood & Bev
Precision instruPaper
ChemicalVehicles
Transport EquipMachineries
MineralPetroleumTobaccoApparel
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15
Normal
Seasonally adjusted
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1%
. .
, . . 2015
13
89%83%
80%79%
78%74%
69%68%
66%64%
59%49%
48%47%
46%45%
43%42%
39%31%
26%
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1.13 –
% ,
Source: The Economist
2
1.3
1.2
1.2
-1.6
-3.0
-3.2
-3.6
-4.6
-5.3
-6.1
Vietnam Aug
China Jul
Indonesia Jun
Malaysia Jun
Pakistan Jun
India Jun
Australia Q1
Japan Jun
US Jul
Euro Area Jun
South Korea Jun
Hong Kong Q1
Taiwan Jul
Brazil Jun
Philippines Jun
Russia Jul
Thailand Jul
Singapore Jul
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14
9.0
6.0
5.8
4.4
3.9
3.8
2.8
2.3
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
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. .
1.14a – (2010 = 100)
Source: Bank of Thailand
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted
1.1
%
Non re
Se
Non du
Semi du
Composite
Du80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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5
( Nielsen’s
FMCG
)
(
)
(
)
(
)
(
)
2010
. .
4b –
, . . 2015
16
53.1
8.6
4.0
0.1
-2.1
-13.0
sident
ervices
rables
rables
Index
rables
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Source: Bank of Thailand
1.15a – (2010 = 100)
1.15b
%
Note: (*) figures are 1-month delayed
Domestic M(2010
Cp
Constructio
Import(201
DomesticSa
114.0
115.0
116.0
117.0
118.0
119.0
120.0
121.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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5
2553
2553
3
9
2553
b –
, . . 2015
17
13.8
0.5
0.4
-0.2
-6.0
-12.8
Machinery sales*prices, Baht)
Composite Index
onstruction Areapermitted (sqm)
on Material SalesIndex
of Capital Goods0 prices, Baht)
c Commercial Carales Index
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Source: BOT
5.14 –
.
8,547
4,853
9,112
2,474
12,899
14,416
12,728
08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
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(Foreign Direct
Investment : FDI)
(Equity capital)
10
.
.
.
.
18
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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.
.
5.15 – .
Source: Board of Investment
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
236
396
648
525
1,023
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
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.
10%
.
230
14
2014/5M 2015/5M
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5.16 – .
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
49%58% 54%
2
7%
10%7%
1
8%
7%10%
1
7%
10%6%
7
2%
4%
2%
1
27%
11%21% 2
11FY 12FY 13FY 14
Europe
Japan
ASEANANIEsUSA
Others
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29%38%
7%5%
0%2%
7% 21%
3% 1%
25%34%
4FY 2015/5M
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1.16a –
% , 6 2015
1.16b
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
13.0
-2.9
-9.1
-10.8
Condo unit registered
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal
Value of land transaction
-19.5
-38.2
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10%
b –
, . . 2015
21
5.6
17.2
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
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5.03a –
7 ,
5.03b
7 ,
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Export Import Tradebalance
2014
2015
– = -20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Expo
-7.4% -4.7%-3.4%
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b –
23
ort Import Trade balance– =
% -8.6%
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3.4% 7 2015
5.05a –
% , 7 2015
5.05b –
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
-3.412.4
6.43.72.92.52.40.90.20.1
-0.5-3.5
-5.9-6.7-6.7-7.0-8.9-9.0-9.6
-14.3-14.4
-19.2-20.3
-27.7-52.0
Total exportOptical instru
JewelleryPhoto instruMachinery
Other manufacturingAutomotive
ForestryMetal
ElectricalElectronics
Agro productsApparelsFootware
AgricultureToiletriesFurnitureAircrafts
Petro chemicalOther export
FisheryPetroleumChemicalsRe exports
Mining
Total exportAutomotiveMachineryJewellery
Optical instruOther manufacturing
Photo instruMetal
ForestryElectricalFootware
Re exportsFurniture
ElectronicsToiletriesAircraftsFishery
ApparelsMining
Other exportAgro products
AgriculturePetro chemical
ChemicalsPetroleum
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3.4% 7 2015
24
-3.40.3
0.20.20.10.10.00.00.00.0
0.00.00.0
-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
-0.4-0.5-0.6
-0.8-0.9
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5.07a – 5
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1
20.4 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3
11.7 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0
11.3 10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3
10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.65.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2
18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
ASEAN
NAFTA
East Asiaex-Japan
EU
Japan
Middle East
Rest of the world
100% = (Trillion)6.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.3
Rest of
East Asi
M
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( )
5.07b –
, 7 2015
25
7.2%
-3.3%
-3.5%
-5.7%
-6.2%
-7.0%
-13.8%
NAFTA
ASEAN
f the world
Japan
EU
a ex Japan
Middle East
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7% 7 2015
5.09a –
% , 7 2015
5.09b –
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
-7.4
7.7
5.0
-0.2
-4.2
-33.3
Total import
Others
Consumer goods
Intermediate Non fuel
Capital goods
Intermediate Fuel
Total imp
Oth
Consumer goo
Intermediate Non f
Capital goo
Intermediate F
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7% 7 2015
26
-7.4
0.6
0.4
-0.1
-1.0
-7.3
ort
ers
ods
uel
ods
uel
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5.08 –
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0
17.4 18.9 18.9 20.8
44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7
20.9 21.3 24.4 23.3
10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY
Others
Capital goods
Consumer goods
100% = 5.9 7.0
Intermediate - Fuel
Intermediate –Non-Fuel
7.8 7.7
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( )
27
8.7 9.6
20.8 15.8
38.3 40.7
24.2 25.1
8.1 8.8
14FY 15/7MO
(Trillion)7.4 4.0
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30% 7
Source: Department of Tourism
5.18 –
CAGR10.6%
10.011.7 11.5
14.5 14.115.9
19.2
22.4
26.524.8
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
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30% 7
28
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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5.19a 5.19b
10
7 2015,
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis
51.2 53.8 56.0 59.9 58.8
27.9 26.5 25.323.8 24.8
5.3 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.515.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
EastAsia
Europe
Americas
Rest ofworld
191.8
155.2
141.6
131.6
131.3
112.1
95.2
57.6
China
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Korea
Vietnam
Singapore
Japan
India
USA
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29
2,458.2
765.8
8
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
30Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
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. .
2.08 –
%
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
1.83
1.51
1.38 1.381.49
1.04
0.68 0.660.72
0.84
05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
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15
30
30
15
. .
1%
1%
31© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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2.09 –
, %
Source: The Economist
0.8
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.9
5.3
5.3
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.4
7
Thailand Jun
Singapore Q2
Malaysia Jun
Hong Kong Jul
Japan Jul
Vietnam 2014
Taiwan Jul
South Korea Jul
China Q2
India 2013
US Jul
Russia Jul
Indonesia Q1
Pakistan 2014
Australia Jul
Philippines Q2
Brazil Jul
Euro Area Jun
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32
7.5
11.1
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
33Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
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. .
3.01a – . 3.01b –
3.01c – . 3.01d –
Source: Bank of Thailand Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Sep-14 Aug-15
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Sep-14 Aug-15 Sep-14
Max
Min
Sep-14
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. (
1 ) 12
1
12
12
12
0.5%
1.5%
BIBOR*
.
34
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Aug-15
Min
Max
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Aug-15
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Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
–
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
D J F M A M J J A
2015
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7
12%
35
S O N D
2014
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
36Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
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1.18a – * 1.18b
Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stableIndex > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improvedIndex < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Note: (*) Below is tIndex = 1Index > 1Index < 1
49.452.4
45.250.3 49.1
46.4
0
50
100
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15
Better
Worse
88.9 87
0
100
200
Feb-15 Mar
Better
Worse
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1,500
3
50
(
) 50
(
) 50
( )
100
100
100
. .
. .
– **
the interpretation of the index:00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
37
7.7 86.2 85.4 84.0 83.0
r-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15
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. .
(*) 0-100
50
50
50
1.17 –
Source: Ministry of Commerce
0
50
100
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-150
50
100
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15
Overall On job
Better
Worse
Better
Worse
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0-100
50
50
50
. .
38.9
33.7
50
38
0
50
100
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15
On future income
Better
Worse
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
39Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
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1.03a –
2015, %
1.03b –
2016, %
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15
Forecast as of, month ending
BOT
FPOThe Economist
poll
NESDB
ForecaJ-15 F-15 M-1
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(BOT) (NESDB)
(FPO)
.
3.0-3.5% 2015 4.1%
2016
40
ast as of, month ending
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15
BOT
The Economist poll
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.
2015 2016
1.04a –
2015, % , 31/8/2015
1.04
2016,
Source: The Economist
7.66.9
6.66.3
5.75.5
4.93.53.4
3.12.8
2.42.42.3
1.40.9
-1.7-3.6
IndiaChina
PhilippinesVietnamPakistanMalaysiaIndonesiaThailandTaiwan
SingaporeSouth Korea
AustraliaUS
Hong KongEuro Area
JapanBrazilRussia
0.60.4
IndiaChina
VietnamPhilippinesMalaysiaIndonesiaPakistanThailand
South KoreaSingaporeAustraliaTaiwan
USHong KongEuro Area
JapanBrazilRussia
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.
2015 2016
b –
% , 31/8/2015
41
7.86.7
6.56.4
5.65.5
4.74.1
3.33.2
2.82.72.7
2.11.7
1.66
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
42Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
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. .
3.07a –
%
3.07b
%
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Veg
Tobacco & a
Food away from
Recreation & Edu
Medic
Prepared food at
Apparel and foo
Sea
Housing & furn
Non alcoholic bev
Eggs
Transport & C-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Head line
Core*
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. .
1.2%
b –
, . . 2015
43© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
8.5
2.0
1.8
1.3
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.7
-2.6
-7.6
-17.0
& fruit
alcohol
m home
ucation
al care
t home
otware
Rice
soning
nishing
verage
Meat
& milk
Commu
Energy
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3.08 –
%
Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll
Latest
1.
1.
1.0
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.8
15.6
9.6
7.2
3.8
3.3
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.5
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.4
-0.7
-1.2
Russia Jul
Brazil Jul
Indonesia Aug
India Jul
Malaysia Jul
Hong Kong Jul
Pakistan Jul
China Jul
Australia Q2
Philippines Jul
South Korea Aug
Vietnam Aug
Japan Jul
Euro Area Aug
US Jul
Singapore Jul
Taiwan Jul
Thailand Aug
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2015*
44© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
14.8
8.7
6.3
5.4
2.6
3.1
4.1
5
.7
2.6
2.8
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3.09a –
%
3.09
%
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis
CPulp & pa
TexNon metallic min
MechinMechinFore
Leather & footwW
Other manu goMF
EneElectrical eq
ChemLivesto
Basic meRubber & pla
FishPetroleum prod
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
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. .
3.8%
9b –
, . . 2015
45© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
5.9
1.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-1.1
-2.2
-3.5
-3.8
-4.1
-4.4
-5.4
-30.6
CropaperxtileneralneryneryestrywareWoodoodsMetalFoodergyquipmicalocksetalsastichingucts
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
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3.02a –
3.02b –
Source: Bank of Thailand
97.7% 97.8%97.2%
96.4%95.7% 95.7%
94.9% 94.8%
90%
95%
100%
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15
10,600
10,800
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15
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( )
47
94.5% 94.5%95.4%
96.5%
5 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Y-o-Y+4.6%
M-o-M+0.5%
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3.03a –
3.03b –
Source: Bank of Thailand
458 401 380 317 270 256 267
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 1
7.31%
5.29% 4.85%3.60%
2.75% 2.26% 2.16% 2
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 1
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Gross NPLs
278 299 312
4YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
2.16% 2.29% 2.38%
14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
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3.04 –
Source: Bank of Thailand
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
12.4%13.3%
13.9%14.9%
14.0%
15.8% 16.1%
14.8%
16.2%15.7%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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( .)
. .
. .
49
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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3.05 –
31/8/2015
Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll
3M risk-free interest rates Expected 2015 inf
14.2
12.5
7.5
7.4
7.0
4.6
3.7
3.1
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
Brazil
Russia
Indonesia
India
Pakistan
Vietnam
Malaysia
China
Australia
Philippines
Thailand
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
US
Japan
Euro Area
8.7
6.3
5.4
4.1
2.8
2.6
1.5
1.7
2.6
0.8
1.0
0.2
3.1
0.4
0.7
0.2
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= -
1%
flation* Real interest rates=
50
5.5
-2.3
1.2
2.0
2.9
1.8
1.1
1.6
0.6
-0.8
0.9
0.6
0.7
-2.7
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
14.8
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. . SET 4%
Source: SET, The Economist
3.06a – SET
%
3.06c –
29/7/2015
3.06b –
SET MAI, ,
France (CAC 40)
Japan (Nikkei 225)
Pakistan (KSE)
Germany (DAX)
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
China (SSEB, $ terms)
US (NAScomp)
S Korea (KOSPI)
Australia (All Ord.)
US (S&P 500)
India (BSE)
US (DJIA)
UK (FTSE 100)
China (SSEA)
Malaysia (KLSE)
HK (Hang Seng)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Taiwan (TWI)
Indonesia (JSX)
-5.1%
1.4%
-2.0%
0.6%
-4.3% -4.0%
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15
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SET
. . SET 4%
SET
2014
51© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
5.3%
5.3%
4.4%
2.0%
1.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-1.1%
-3.9%
-5.8%
-6.5%
-8.6%
-8.9%
-9.5%
-10.3%
-10.7%
-11.9%
-14.6%
-17.1%
-18.9%
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Download the presentationhttp://goo.gl/6FZNS9
Capturing The Vietnam
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Contact InformationFinAdvice Department – Private FundTel 02-635-1700 ext. 757, 771, [email protected] , [email protected]
m Growth Opportunity
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
![Page 105: Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief กันยายน 2558](https://reader035.fdocument.pub/reader035/viewer/2022062411/57906e281a28ab68749323de/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
53Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
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2
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
4.1 –
-0.5%
1.4%
-2.0%
-1.1%
-4.0%
-0.7%-0.3%
-0.6%
1.1%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-4.4%
-2.6%
-0.9
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY
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(Overall cash balances)
(Budget cash balances)
(Non budget cash balances)
9 10
2007-2010
2009
2012
10 2009
2014
2014
-3.6%
-2.2% -2.4%
9%
-4.1%
-2.0%-2.5%
Y 12FY 13FY 14FY
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2015
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
4.2 –
1,2411,390 1,455 1,498 1,484
1,7511,902
2,075 2,158 2,076
-1,277 -1,280
-1,629 -1,598-1,849 -1,825 -1,930
-2,489 -2,424 -2,371
-36110
-174 -100-364
-75 -27
-414-267 -296
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
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7 2015
7
55© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
-350.0
-300.0
-250.0
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
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97
7
4.3 –
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
-36
110
-174
-100
-364
-75
-27
-414
-45
88
-144
-96
-401
-266
-95
-4
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY
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(Overall cash balances)
(Budget cash balances)
(Non budget cash balances)
9 10
2007-2010
2010
2012
7 2015
97
148
148
56© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
-267-296
-97
466
-242
-305
-148
Y 13FY 14FY '15/7mo
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4.4 –
% , 2015
Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll
-1.9
-2.0
-2.0
-2.1
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-4.1
-4.1
-4.2
-5.1
-5.8
-6.8
South KoreaHong KongSingapore
TaiwanPhilippinesIndonesiaThailand
Euro AreaAustralia
USChina
RussiaIndia
MalaysiaVietnamPakistan
BrazilJapan
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2015
2%
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0.4
0.0
-0.7
-1.1
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2015
4.5a – 4.5b –
Source: Public Debt Management Office
8% 8% 7% 7% 6%External debtas percent of total
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 2011 2012
Direct Government debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt
Public debt fromState Enterprises
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(5.7 ) (42%)
( )
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2 2013 2014 Jun-15
Direct Government debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt
Public debt fromState Enterprises
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4.6 –
, 2014 ( )
Source: CIA fact book
228181
175142
134132131
119119
110107
1021011019896949494939290898786
1 Japan2 Zimbabwe
3 Greece4 Lebanon
5 Italy6 Jamaica7 Portugal8 Cyprus9 Ireland
10 Grenada11 Singapore12 Belgium13 Eritrea
14 Barbados15 Spain
16 France17 Iceland18 Egypt
19 Puerto rico20 Canada21 Bhutan22 Jordan
23 Antigua and barbuda24 UK
25 Cabo verde
39 United40 C43
48 Ur50 Pa
5663 Ma
6771 Th
72 Philip7
80 Vie93 M96 Sw
101 Arg103 South105 Hong
108 T126
129 N133 Indo
137147149 N
164 Saudi
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Central Intelligence Agency
CIA 49%
2014
228%
Int’l rule ofthumb<60% ofGDP
59
7170676564
59545149484646
4140383737373030242213122
statesCroatia3 Israelruguayakistan6 Brazilalaysia7 Indiahailandppines8 LaosetnamMexicowedenentinaKoreag kongTurkeyNepalorwayonesia7 ChinaRussiaNigeriaarabia
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•
••
••
•
• . . 1%
•
•
• 3.0-3.5% 201
• . .
•
•
• 7 2015
. . 1%
Grow
thS
tability
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2.8%
15 4.1% 2016
7 2015
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7 2015
(F.
+
5.01 –
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
31.3
1.25.3
-5.0-1.2
5.6
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
29.8
10FY 1
-19.7
10FY 1
21.3
10FY 1
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7 2015
O.B)
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17.0
6.0 6.7
24.618.0
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
-8.1 -7.5 -9.1 -10.4-3.5
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
-7.7
6.7
-2.6-15.4 -8.9
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
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5.02 –
Source: The Economist
As % of 2015 GDP*
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
21.3%
12.8%
7.6%
5.0%
4.1%
3.4%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.6%
-1.2%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-3.1%
-4.1%
Singapore Q2
Taiwan Q2
South Korea Jun
Russia Q2
Philippines Mar
Malaysia Q2
China Q2
Hong Kong Q1
Vietnam 2013
Japan Jun
Euro Area Jun
Thailand Q1
Pakistan Q2
India Q1
US Q1
Indonesia Q2
Australia Q1
Brazil Jul
-406.4
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(Current Account)
12
Last 12 months, USD Billion
62
69.5
72.8
102.2
68.7
14.5
8.8
291.4
5.9
9.5
97.1
317.6
16.1
-2.2
-27.5
-21.6
-41.9
-89.4
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2015
Source: Bank of Thailand
5.10a –
5.10b –
69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3100.6 104.3
130.
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12Y
38.5% 35.4% 31.4% 28.8%35.2% 33.7%
38.0%
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE
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.
2009
.7 139.9 140.7 138.0
YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
% 38.2% 34.5% 33.7%
E 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
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Source: Bank of Thailand
5.11a – 5.11b –
84% 80% 82% 82% 82%
16% 20% 18% 18% 18%
11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
55% 56
45% 44
11YE 12Y
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1
1
% 57% 60% 61%
% 43% 40% 39%
YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
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Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
5.12a – 5.12b –
340%370%
312%
279% 277%292%
10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
4.7%
3.4%
10FY 11FY
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2011
(277%)
4.7%
.
4.2%4.0%
4.7% 4.9%
12FY 13FY 14FY 15/1Q
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5.13a – *
5.13b –
**
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months
6.99.1
7.9
13.812.6
10.8 9.9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
73.9 106.5 118.0 154.1191.7 206.4 205.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Net forward position .
currency forward contracts
( )
4
2005 2012
10
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9.1 9.5 9.7
2 2013 2014 Jul-15
8 190.2 180.2 174.6
2 2013 2014 Jul-15
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. . 1%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers
USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $,
MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
5.17b –
%
5.17a – 2007 = 100
MYR 8.7172
AUD 26.0602
MXN 2.1507
IDR 2.7164
EUR 40.6272
JPY 29.908
KRW 0.0305
SGD 25.6825
INR 0.5759
TWD 1.1134
GBP 55.7311
PHP 0.7816
VND 0.0016
CNY 5.6752
USD 36.0277
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
M o M1.4%
Y o Y+2.0%
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates
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(Nominal Effective
Exchange Rate)
23
1
. . 1% 1
2%
, 31/8/2015
Baht depreciates Baht appreciates
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18.1
15.7
14.0
8.5
4.4
4.0
3.6
0.6
-1.9
-3.6
-4.3
-4.7
-6.3
-7.3
-10.9
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