Ch5Ch5Ch5.하이테크 상품의

Ch5.하이테크 상품의하이테크 상품의

마케팅조사하이테크 상품의

마케팅조사마케팅조사마케팅조사

MR for High-Tech: A Paradox?

Ignore your customer! (Fortune)

“It is time to start ignoring the customer. That’s the only It is time to start ignoring the customer That s the onlyway to create the kind of breakthrough products and services that can catapult you far ahead of the competition ”competition.

소비자 조사는 문제가 많다F VCR F d E CNN PDA Fax, VCR, Fed Ex, CNN, PDA

Rather, believe your gut.

Compaq PC servers Compaq PC servers

MR for High-Tech: A Paradox?

Don’t ask the customers (Akio Morita)

“Instead of doing a lot of market research, weInstead of doing a lot of market research, we refine our thinking on a product and its use and try to create a market for it by educating and communicating with the public.”

Doing marketing research slows new product introduction. (Pearlman at Zenith)

“Empirically I have not found marketing research to be useful for innovative products.”p

혁신의 유형과 마케팅조사

Market Intuition

TraditionalMarket Research

IncrementalInnovation

BreakthroughInnovationInnovation Innovation

Fine-tuning Ideation

What Went Wrong with Iridium?

Lessons Learned

Most entrepreneurial failures are those of marketing.

“Marketing decisions are the most important ”Marketing decisions are the most important.

(Lodish in Entrepreneurial Marketing)

Customer research is critical in developing a really new product: Reality Checkp y

“The degree to which a product is innovative and the effect of discontinuities on customer evaluation shouldeffect of discontinuities on customer evaluation should be examined early in the development process.”(Veryzer, JPIM 1998)

MR for High-Tech Products

하이테크 산업에서 마케팅 조사의 용도와 역할

“Discovering” market opportunities

잠재적인 니즈의 파악

“Sizing” market opportunities Sizing market opportunities

기본 가정의 검토와 수요예측 -> 시장불확실성의 감소

“Fine-tuning” product/market strategies

제품 사양 및 출시 전략의 정교화 -> 완전완비 제품의 설계완전완비 제품의 설계

“Discovering” Opportunities

행운(luck)의 역할

체계적인 시장기회 발견 접근법 체계적인 시장기회 발견 접근법

Market-driving (or Intuition-based)

Finding new markets for new (esp. disruptive) technologies: shifting basis of competitiontechnologies: shifting basis of competition

Market-driven (or Research-based)

Observational research

Empathic design

Lead user process

In depth interview (e g Zmet) In-depth interview (e.g. Zmet)

Observation Tells What Customers Can’t Tell You

Observing (what they do) is often more useful than is asking (what they say)useful than is asking (what they say).

Anthropological approach: Intel

Ethnography (e g Applied Exploration) Ethnography (e.g. Applied Exploration)

Discovering what the customer has already discovered

Empathic Design

감정이입 (공감共感) 디자인

Watch consumers in their own worldWatch consumers in their own world

Customer visit program

Allows marketers to identify

Trigger of use

Interactions with the user’s environment

User customization User customization

Importance of intangible attributes

Unarticulated user needsUnarticulated user needs

Process to conduct Empathic Design

Lead User Process

Lead user process aims to create Lead user process aims to create breakthrough products by identifying lead users and learning from them.

Who are the lead users?

“Lead users have needs that are well ahead of market trends andwell ahead of market trends and go far beyond those of average users. Over time, more and more people feel the same need.”

- Eric Von Hippel

Lead User Process

선도사용자 프로세스의 5단계 선도사용자 프로세스의 5단계

Lay the foundation

Determine important market/technical trends

Identify and question lead users Identify and question lead users

Develop the breakthroughs (lead user workshop).

Project the lead user data onto the larger market.

3M Example:

medical imaging

surgical drapes

Affinity Diagram

In-Depth Interviews

심층면접을 통한 고객니즈의 파악

F G I t i Focus Group Interview

Creative Session

Super Groups Super Groups

Deliberate Group

In-depth Interview

Laddering

Repertory Grid

Echo Technique Echo Technique

ZMET (Zaltman Metaphor Elicitation Technique)q

Z M E T

“Sizing” Opportunities: Demand Forecast

Cumulative Adoption

Market Potential

Market Penetration

TimeTimeLaunch

Estimating Market Potential

계량적 모형을 이용한 예측기법

Regression analysis

Econometric model

Input-output analysis

Logistic Model Logistic Model

시장조사를 통한 예측기법(정성+정량)시장조사를 통한 예측기법(정성 정량)

Consumer Research

Delphi method

Historical Analogy

Information Acceleration (IA) – enhanced scenariosscenarios

Delphi Method

Step1: 전문 패널 선정Step1: 전문 패널 선정

Step2: 예측질문 작성, 송부Step2 예측질문 작성, 송부

Step3: 회답분석 정리

Step4: 예측질문 수정 송부

Step3: 회답분석, 정리

Step4: 예측질문 수정, 송부

수차 반복

Step5: 종합결론 (예측치) 도출

정보가속화 기법

(a) 제품 브로슈어 (c)판매원

(b) 잡지광고 (d)동료 의사( ) 잡지광

Estimating Market Penetration: The Bass Model

The Bass model is used to predict first purchase growth (“diffusion”)The Bass model is used to predict first-purchase growth (“diffusion”) of a new product by incorporating “external (innovator)” and “internal (imitator)” influences.

Adoptions due toAdoptions due to

ve

Internal influenceInternal influence

cum

ulat

ivtio

ns

Ad ti d tAd ti d t

Time

Non

-cA

dop Adoptions due toAdoptions due to

External influenceExternal influence

Time

n(t) = m [p+qF(t)] [1-F(t)]

Bass Model

Parameter Estimation: m, p, q

Model refinements and extensions

M d l ti d l ti Model assumptions and relaxation

Multi-generation diffusion and the “Law of Capture” Individual level diffusion analysis Individual level diffusion analysis

Analogical diffusion estimation

Other uses of diffusion models

국가간 모방계수(q)의 비교

미국 한국 일본 대만

흑백 TV 0 39 0 52 0 59 0 75흑백 TV 0.39 0.52 0.59 0.75

세탁기 0.13 0.81 0.19 0.36

에어컨 0 39 0 50 0 47 0 65에어컨 0.39 0.50 0.47 0.65

승용차 0.29 0.49 0.39 0.45

냉장고 0 16 0 69 0 76 NA냉장고 0.16 0.69 0.76 NA

전자계산기 0.43 NA 0.39 0.46

진공청소기 0 15 NA 0 23 NA진공청소기 0.15 NA 0.23 NA

라디오 0.38 0.48 NA NA

스프레드쉬트 모형: HDTV 수요예측

Key Market Factors:Key Market Factors:

Population basePopulation basepp TechnologyTechnology AwarenessAwareness AvailabilityAvailability Buying intentionBuying intention

WhatWhat--if Analysisif Analysis

Kano Graph

Market Readers: IT industry