産業トピックス...occupancy rate and room rates compared with lower tariff hotels. This is...

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近年の香港ホテル業界の動向を振り返ると、2014 年までは中国本土から の宿泊客の増加を主因に好調に推移してきたものの、2015 年以降、宿泊 客数は減少に転じている。中国人以外の宿泊客数こそ底堅く推移している ものの、中国経済の減速や香港ドル高が続くなか日本や韓国など近隣諸国 の人気の高まりにより、中国人宿泊客数が減少に転じたことが大きい。 また、客室数の推移をみると、中心部(Central, Tsim Sha Tsui 等)における 高価格帯ホテルの新規供給量こそ依然として限られているものの、全体と しては中心部以外の供給増を背景に増加基調を辿っている。 斯かる状況下、客室稼働率や客室単価は 2015 年以降下押しされているの が実情。もっとも、客室稼働率は 86%とアジアの他の都市に比して良好な 水準にあり、客室単価もアジアの他の都市を大幅に上回る水準を維持。 ランク別に仔細にみると、高価格帯ホテルでは、中・低価格帯ホテルに比 して稼働率・単価ともに小幅の落ち込みに留まっている点が特徴的。これ は、高価格帯ホテルでは、①中国人以外の外国人旅行客の比率が高いこと に加えて、②宿泊部門以外の料飲部門においても安定した収入を確保して いることから、中国人宿泊客数の減少の影響を受けづらいため。 今後を展望すると、中国人宿泊客数が低迷するなか当面冴えない環境が続 こうが、事業者別にはランクや立地によって斑模様の展開が見込まれる。 すなわち、中心部以外で低価格帯ホテルを手掛け、中国人宿泊客への依 存度の高い事業者は、新規客室数の増加も相俟って厳しい事業環境が続 くとみられる一方、中心部に位置し、中国人以外の宿泊客の比率の高い 高価格帯ホテルでは、客室数の大幅な増加は見込まれないうえ、料飲部 門の下支えもあり、総じて安定した事業環境が続こう。 産業トピックス 【香港駐在報告】 香港ホテル業界の今後の展望について JESSICA KIM STRATEGIC RESEARCH DIVISION (HONG KONG) Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ A member of MUFG, a global financial group 【要約】 2016 9

Transcript of 産業トピックス...occupancy rate and room rates compared with lower tariff hotels. This is...

Page 1: 産業トピックス...occupancy rate and room rates compared with lower tariff hotels. This is because, HTA’s guests consisted of large long haul visitors followed by other short

近年の香港ホテル業界の動向を振り返ると、2014 年までは中国本土から

の宿泊客の増加を主因に好調に推移してきたものの、2015 年以降、宿泊

客数は減少に転じている。中国人以外の宿泊客数こそ底堅く推移している

ものの、中国経済の減速や香港ドル高が続くなか日本や韓国など近隣諸国

の人気の高まりにより、中国人宿泊客数が減少に転じたことが大きい。

また、客室数の推移をみると、中心部(Central, Tsim Sha Tsui等)における

高価格帯ホテルの新規供給量こそ依然として限られているものの、全体と

しては中心部以外の供給増を背景に増加基調を辿っている。

斯かる状況下、客室稼働率や客室単価は 2015 年以降下押しされているの

が実情。もっとも、客室稼働率は 86%とアジアの他の都市に比して良好な

水準にあり、客室単価もアジアの他の都市を大幅に上回る水準を維持。

ランク別に仔細にみると、高価格帯ホテルでは、中・低価格帯ホテルに比

して稼働率・単価ともに小幅の落ち込みに留まっている点が特徴的。これ

は、高価格帯ホテルでは、①中国人以外の外国人旅行客の比率が高いこと

に加えて、②宿泊部門以外の料飲部門においても安定した収入を確保して

いることから、中国人宿泊客数の減少の影響を受けづらいため。

今後を展望すると、中国人宿泊客数が低迷するなか当面冴えない環境が続

こうが、事業者別にはランクや立地によって斑模様の展開が見込まれる。

すなわち、中心部以外で低価格帯ホテルを手掛け、中国人宿泊客への依

存度の高い事業者は、新規客室数の増加も相俟って厳しい事業環境が続

くとみられる一方、中心部に位置し、中国人以外の宿泊客の比率の高い

高価格帯ホテルでは、客室数の大幅な増加は見込まれないうえ、料飲部

門の下支えもあり、総じて安定した事業環境が続こう。

産業トピックス

【香港駐在報告】

香港ホテル業界の今後の展望について

JESSICA KIM

STRATEGIC RESEARCH DIVISION

(HONG KONG)

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ A member of MUFG, a global financial group

【要約】

2016年 9月

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

Hong Kong hotel industry grew favourably owing to increase overnight visitors

driven by mainland Chinese in 2010-14. Meantime, overnight visitors from the other

countries were largely steady.

However, overnight visitors fell dragged by decline in mainland Chinese arrivals in

2015 and in 1Q16 due to slowdown in China economy, strong HKD and tight

competition from neighbouring countries. While, overnight visitors from other

countries stayed stable in 2015 and it rose in 1Q16.

Hotel supply grew modestly in the past few years. Especially, supply of high tariff

hotels in prime areas was tight (i.e. Central, Tsim Sha Tsui and Wan Chai).

Thus, occupancy rate and room rate declined in 2015 and 1Q16. However,

occupancy rate still remained at the highest level 86% compared with other major

Asian cities. Room rate also continued to be significantly above other cities.

By hotel classification, High Tariff A (“HTA”) hotels posted smallest drops in

occupancy rate and room rates compared with lower tariff hotels. This is because,

HTA’s guests consisted of large long haul visitors followed by other short haul

guests, while it less depends on mainland Chinese guests. Also, HTA’s other major

source of revenue, F&B, supported HTA to minimize impact when market

downturn. Thus, financial performance of HTA has been rather stable.

Overall market condition would remain lukewarm as overnight visitors might stay

soft in the near term. Amid possible tepid mainland Chinese arrivals, visitors from

the others may stay stable. Supply may rise modestly.

Hotel performance may vary by classification and area. Lower tariff hotels in non-

prime area might be challenged due to high dependency on mainland Chinese and

more new supply. While, HTA in prime area could be relatively competitive to

remain stable attributed to larger exposure to guests from other countries and limited

new supply. Also, flexible source of revenue would be supportive.

Industry Topic

Recent Trends and Outlook for Hong Kong Hotel Industry

JESSICA KIM

STRATEGIC RESEARCH DIVISION

(HONG KONG)

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ A member of MUFG, a global financial group

SEPTEMBER 2016

【Summary】

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

I. Hong Kong Hotel Industry Overview

1. Market Size …………………………………….……………………………………..

2. Demand ……………………………….………………………………..……………..

3. Supply …………………….…………………………………………………………...

II. Hotel Industry Performance

1. Overall Hotel……………………………….…….………….………………………….

(1) Operational Performance………………………………………………….…….

(2) Financial Performance .………………………………………………………….

2. Hotel Performance by Classification………………...…...…..............…................

(1) Operational Performance………………………………………………….…….

(2) Financial Performance .………………………………………………………….

III. Major Hotel Company / Group

1. Market Structure ………………………..…………………………………………….

2. Performance of Major Local Hotels……………………….………….…….……….

IV. Outlook and Conclusion

1. Industry Outlook …………………………………………………………………........

(1) Demand .…………………………………………………….…………………….

(2) Supply ..……………………………………………………………………………

(3) Government Stance ……………………………………………………………..

2. Performance by Hotel Classification and Area …………………………………….

3. Conclusion ……………..………………………………………………………………

Appendix ……………………..………………………………………………………………….

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

I. Hong Kong Hotel Industry Overview

1. Market Size

◇ Hong Kong had 252 hotels offering 73,846 rooms which accounting for 86% of total tourist

accommodation

In 2015, among tourist accommodation in Hong Kong, hotel accounted for the majority of 86.3% (i.e.

73,846 rooms) and guesthouse shared the rest 13.7% (i.e. 11,712 rooms) in terms of the number of

rooms (Figure 1).

As per hotel classification(Note), the highest grade High Tariff A (“HTA”) hotel accounted for 24.4%

of total hotel rooms in 2015 (Figure 2). High Tariff B (“HTB”) and Medium Tariff (“MT”) were

responsible for 37.4% and 30.8% of total respectively. Average number of rooms per HTA hotel was

the greatest with 515 rooms in 2015. HTB and MT held 307 rooms and 220 rooms respectively in

average.

(Note) The hotel classification system is administrated by Hong Kong Tourism Board (“HKTB”). The classification is based on 5 key

indicators - ‘facilities’, ‘location’, ‘staff-to-room ratio’, ‘average achieved room rate’ and ‘business mix’. A scoring method is

used to decide the hotel category. HKTB does not disclose each hotel’s score or classification.

Figure 2: Hotel Classification (2015) Figure 1: Tourist Accommodation Breakdown (2015)

Guesthouse 13.7% [11,712 Rooms]

Hotel 86.3% [73,846 Rooms]

(Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

%

HTA 35 18,037 24.4 515

HTB 90 27,631 37.4 307

MT 103 22,678 30.8 220

Unclassified 24 5,500 7.4 229

Total 252 73,846 100.0 293

HotelRooms

[2]

Number

[1][2] / [1]

(Note) Unclassified hotels are hotels not responding to HKTB's survey (Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

2. Demand

◇ Earlier healthy grown overnight visitors fell recently due to decline in Chinese visitors

In 2010-14, total overnight visitors rose favourably at 8.4% CAGR driven by increase in mainland

Chinese visitors (Figure 3), while visitors from short haul excluding mainland China and long haul

remained largely flat (Figure 4).

High growths of mainland Chinese arrivals were backed by China’s economic growth and

Individual Visit Scheme (“IVS”) which allowing mainland Chinese to travel to Hong Kong

without joining tour groups since its introduction in 2003(Note).

(Note) Cities with applicable IVS have expanded from 10 cities in 2003 (i.e. Beijing, Shanghai and 8 cities in Guangdong

Province), and currently it applied to 49 cities, mostly tier 1-2 cities.

However, total overnight visitors dropped by -3.9% YoY in 2015 and it continued to fall by

-5.8% YoY in 1Q16 due to decline in mainland Chinese arrivals. On the other hand visitors from other

countries remained steady in 2015 and it even rose by 8.2% YoY in 1Q16 although it could not cover

up decrease in mainland Chinese visitors.

Amid slowdown in China economy, Hong Kong faced tight competition to draw Chinese visitors

as other destinations (i.e. Japan, South Korea and Europe etc.) became more popular supported by

depreciation of their local currency and relaxation on visa requirement for inbound travellers.

While, Hong Kong was in strong HKD environment and there were some adverse sentiments

toward Chinese tourists which might have discouraged Chinese to visit Hong Kong.

-20

0

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30

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40

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Overnight Visitors (excl. Mainland Chinese)

Mainlan Chinese

Growth of Total Overnight Visitors (RHS)

Growth of Mainland Chinese (RHS)

(Million) (YoY, %)

1Q

15

1Q

16

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Short Haul (Excl. Mainland China)

Long Haul

(YoY, %)

1Q

15

1Q

16

Figure 4: Growth of Other Overnight Visitors Figure 3: Overnight Visitors

(Source) HKTB, CEIC, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU (Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

Growth of overnight visitors to Hong Kong largely depended on growth of overnight mainland

Chinese. This is because, mainland Chinese have accounted for the largest portion of all visitors to

Hong Kong (Figure 5). Overnight arrivals within short-haul routes excluding mainland China

accounted for 20% of total, and arrivals from long-haul routes made 12%.

As per average length of stays, length of mainland Chinese overnight visitors has been gradually

shortened from 3.9 days in 2010 to 3.2 days in 2015, stays from others improved (Figure 6). Average

length of stays from short haul excluding mainland China and long haul visitors slightly rose from 2.7

and 4.0 days in 2010 to 2.9 and 4.1 days in 2015 respectively.

◇ Hong Kong maintained its popularity and ranked as a top city destination

Despite recent slump of overnight visitors mainly

owing to mainland China, Hong Kong is

considered as the most popular city to visit.

According to the ranking of world top city

destinations in 2014, Hong Kong continued to be

ranked at the 1st place with 27.8 million of

overnight visitors, followed by London (17.4

million), Singapore (17.1 million), Bangkok (16.2

million) and so on (Figure 7).

Figure 5: Breakdown of Overnight Visitors (2015)

(Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

Mainland China 68%

S Korea4%

Taiwan 3%

Japan2%

SE Asia 9%

India 1%

Other Short-Haul 1%

US & Canada4%

Europe 5%

Oceania 2%

Other Long-Haul 1%

Short -Haul20%

Long -Haul12%

Figure 6: Average Length of Stays by Origin of Visitors

3.93.2

2.7 2.9

4.0 4.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Mainland China

Short Haul (excl. Mainland China)

Long Haul

(Days)

Figure 7: World Top City Destinations

(Note) Data refers to overnight visitors (Source) Euromonitor International, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

Rank

(2014)City

Arrivals

(Million)

1 Hong Kong 27.8

2 London 17.4

3 Singapore 17.1

4 Bangkok 16.2

5 Paris 15.0

6 Macau 15.0

7 Dubai 13.2

8 Shenzhen 13.1

9 New York City 12.2

10 Istanbul 11.9

(Note) For short haul, S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, SE Asia and India were included; for long haul, US, Canada, Europe and Oceania were included (Source) CEIC, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

3. Supply

◇ Hotel room supply grew slowly. Especially higher grade hotels saw marginal growths

Hotel room supply rose slowly at 2.9% CAGR in

2013-15. Increase in room supply was mainly

driven by MT which grew by 6.4% CAGR during

the same period, while HTA and HTB hotels saw

marginal growths (Figure 8).

In HTA, room supply was very limited given high

standards to fit into HTA. There was no new HTA

hotel supply since 2013. In 2015, one HTB was

upgraded to HTA and it made the growth of HTA

rooms at 1.5% CAGR in 2013-15. HTB also saw

a modest rise at 1.2% CAGR.

◇ More hotels were opened in non-prime location. There were some project delays

By locations (Please refer to the location map on Appendix, pg. 23), more sizable new hotels were

established in non-prime location and prime location had relatively limited new supply for those over

100 rooms. In 2015, in prime location, some lower tariff hotels entered in the market (Figure 9).

Meantime, some supply was delayed. For example, a 299-room hotel project located in Wan Chai and

a 100-room hotel project in Tsim Sha Tsui were supposed to be delivered within 2015, but it postponed

to open in 2016.

Figure 9: Major New Supply by Locations

(Note) Above showed hotels with over 100 rooms (Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

District Hotel Rooms District Hotel Rooms

Sheung Wan Butterfly On Hollywood 142 Kwun Tong L'hotel elan 254

Sheung Wan Best Western 432 Tai Kok Tsui Rosedale 435

Sheung Wan IBIS 550 Kwun Tong Dorsett Regency 361

Sheung Wan Holiday Inn Express 299 Tseung Kwan O Crowne Plaza 359

Tsim Sha Tsui Best Western Grand 396 Tseung Kwan O Holiday Inn Express 300

To Kwa Wan Vasky 151

Wan Chai Indigo 138 Lantau Island Auberge 325

Wan Chai OZO Wesley 251 Shatin Courtyard By Marriott 539

Yau Ma Tei Rainbow 126 San Po Kong Pentahotel 350

Sham Shui Po YHA Mei Ho 129

Sheung Wan iclub Sheung Wan 248 Kwai Chung Dorsett Tsuen Wan 547

Wang Chuk Hang Ovolo Southside 162

North Point iclub Fortress Hill 338

Mongkok Inn Hotel Hong Kong 199 Hung Hom Hotel sáv 388

Mongkok Holiday Inn Express HK Mongkok 147 To Kwa Wan Cruise Hotel 161

Sai Wan Grand City Hotel 214

Sub-total (Hotels with over 100 rooms) 2,928 Sub-total (Hotels with over 100 rooms) 5,013

Total (All hotels) 4,236 Total (All hotels) 5,4142012-2015

2015

2014

Prime Location Non-Prime Location

2013

2012

Figure 8: Hotel Room Supply

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MT

HTB

HTA

Growth-All Rooms (RHS)

(Thousand) (YoY, %)

6.4%

1.2%

1.5%

CAGR

(Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

In terms of room supply by selective district, most districts saw rather moderate growths in 2012-15

(Figure 10). Amid overall mild increase, relatively softer growths on room supply were observed in

major prime area than non-prime.

In prime location, Wan Chai provided 9,858 rooms as of 2015 with a modest growth at 2.1%

CAGR in 2012-15. Tsim Sha Tsui had the largest stocks of 16,749 rooms, but it registered the

smallest growth at 0.6% CAGR.

In non-prime location, Eastern & Southern Hong Kong had 6,371 rooms with rising of rooms at

2.1% CAGR in 2012-15. Other Kowloon offered 8,798 rooms and the number of rooms grew at

5.5% CAGR. New Territories embraced large stocks of 12,963 rooms, and it rose moderately at

4.3% CAGR.

For occupancy rate by district, most areas posted high occupancy rates over the recent past years

(Figure 11).

Despite decline in 2015, occupancy rates in most districts managed to maintain around 85% which

is considered as quite high level in hotel industry.

Occupancy rate of core prime location such as Central was slightly lower than other areas. In the

area, there are many higher tariff hotels are located. Such higher tariff hotels tend to adjust room

rate less aggressively to push up occupancy rate given their high brand image. Therefore, normally

occupancy rates of high tariff hotels are below the lower tariff hotels’. While, Tsim Sha Tsui and

Wan Chai saw higher occupancy rates partially due to more mixture of hotel classification in the

areas.

Figure 10: No. of Rooms by District Figure 11: Occupancy Rate by District

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Centr

al /

We

ste

rn

Wan C

hai

Tsim

Sha

Tsui

Ya

u M

a T

ei /

Mo

ngkok

Ea

ste

rn &

So

uth

ern

HK

Oth

er

Kow

loon

New

Terr

ito

rie

s

Oute

r Is

land

2012 2013 2014 2015

(No. of Rooms)

Prime

4.9%2.1%

2.1%

0.6%

5.5%

5.0%

4.3%

2.7%

Non-Prime

(Note) Percentage figures refer to CAGR in 12-15 (Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Central / Western Wan Chai

Eastern & SouthernHong Kong

Tsim Sha Tsui

Yau Ma Tei /Mongkok

Others

(%)

(Note) Due to change of grouped district from 2012, until 2011, Central/Western was Central/Admiralty; Wan Chai was Wan Chai/Causeway Bay; Eastern/Southern HK was Eastern/Other HK (Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

II. Hotel Industry Performance

1. Overall Hotel

(1) Operational Performance

◇ Occupancy rate and room rate dropped in 2015, but Hong Kong still maintained high level

in major Asian cities

Historically, occupancy rate of all hotels has largely improved except for the sharp drops in 2003 and

2009 due to SARS outbreak and global financial crisis (Figure 12). Average occupancy rate rose from

82.0% in 2000-02 to 86.4% in 2004-08 and it further grew to 88.8% in 2010-14.

High occupancy rate in 2010-14 was supported by favourable growth in overnight visitors (i.e. 8.4%

CAGR) amid moderate increase in hotel room supply (i.e. 5.0% CAGR). However, it fell to 86% in

2015 and it stood at same level in 1Q16 owing to decline in visitors.

For occupancy rates in major cities in Asia in 2015, Hong Kong still maintained the highest occupancy

despite decline (Figure 13). Along with Hong Kong, hotel occupancy rates in Singapore and Taipei

slipped compared with a year earlier. On the other hand, Tokyo saw significant improvement

supported by increase of tourists.

Figure 12: Occupancy Rate of All Hotels Figure 13: Occupancy Rate in Asian City (2015)

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85

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95

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(%)

82.0%

88.8% 86.4%

1Q

15

1Q

16

(Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

86.0 84.9 82.676.9 75.8

65.5 63.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

HK S'pore Tokyo Seoul Taipei Shanghai Beijing

(%)

HKTokyoS'pore

TaipeiSeoul

ShanghaiBeijing

(n.a.)

(Note) 1. Average occupancy of all hotels 2. Arrows indicate occupancy rate increase / decrease in 2015 compared with 2014 3. For Tokyo, rate in Tokyo Metropolitan area was used 4. For Seoul, rate for 2015 is not released. Figure for 2014 was used (Source) CEIC, HKTB, Others, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

Room rate also showed similar movement as occupancy rate trend (Figure 14). It stood at high level

in the recent past years when demand grew faster than room supply, but it faltered in 2015 due to weak

demand.

Although room rate declined in 2015, room rate in Hong Kong remained expensive compared with

other major Asian cities (Figure 15) . Among major cities, hotel room rates in Singapore and Hong

Kong were significantly higher than other major cities in the region.

179172

151145 143

108

81

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100

120

140

160

180

200

S'pore HK Tokyo Seoul Taipei Shanghai Beijing

(USD/Night)

HK

Tokyo

S'pore

Seoul Taipei

Shanghai

Beijing

Figure 14: Room Rate of All Hotels Figure 15: Room Rate in Asian City (2015)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0001 02 0304 05 0607 08 0910 111213 1415

(HKD)

1Q

15

1Q

16

(Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

179172

151145 143

108

81

0

20

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60

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120

140

160

180

200

S'pore HK Tokyo Seoul Taipei Shanghai Beijing

(USD/Night)

HK

Tokyo

S'pore

Seoul Taipei

Shanghai

Beijing

(n.a.)

(Note) 1. Average room rate of al hotels 2. Arrows indicate room rate increase / decrease in 2015 compared with 2014 3. For Seoul, rate for 2015 is not released. Figure for 2014 was used (Source) CEIC, HKTB, Others, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

(2) Financial Performance

◇ Hotel revenue was growing slowly. NOIPAR margin softened in 2014, but it remained at

high level

Historically, hotel revenue saw overall growing trend, except the years with the impacts from

extraordinary conditions (i.e. Weak GDP affected by 9/11 attack in 2001, outbreak of SARS in 2003

and global financial crisis in 2009) (Figure 16).

In 2010-14, hotel revenue continued to increase, although it significantly slowed down since 2012

after high growth in 2010-11, rebound periods as a recovery from global financial crisis.

In terms of Net Operating Income Per Available Room (“NOIPAR”) margin(Note), margin largely

improved besides exceptional years (Figure 17). In 2010-14, despite small range of ups and downs,

NOIPAR margin of all hotels maintained high level within 35%-42%.

(Note) NOIPAR margin was derived from Revenue Per Available Room (“RevPAR”) and NOIPAR. It was simply calculated as

NOIPAR divided by RevPAR.

Figure 16: Hotels Revenue Figure 17: NOIPAR Margin of All Hotels

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

(HKD Billion) (%)

Hotel Revenue

Growth rate(RHS)

(Source) CEIC, HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

0

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20

30

40

50

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

(%)

(Source) HKTB, Hong Kong Hotel Industry Review, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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9

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

2. Hotel Performance by Classification

(1) Operational Performance

◇ Amid occupancy rate and room rate of each hotel classes fell in 2015, higher tariff hotels

posted smaller downward adjustments

The trends of occupancy rate by hotel classification (Figure 18) followed the trend of all hotels (Figure

12, pg. 6). In 2010-14, average occupancy rates for HTA, HTB and MT saw high rate at 84.6%, 90.0%

and 91.6% respectively.

As per extraordinary event during the period, Occupy Central protest had lasted for about 3 months

in the later 2014 (Sep-Dec 2014). Major protest sites were mainly in prime locations such as

Central, Causeway Bay and Mongkok. Accordingly, occupancy rate of HTA, mostly located in

prime areas, dropped YoY in Oct-Dec 2014. However, annual occupancy rate in 2014 remained

the same compared to last year due to overall higher occupancy rates before the event. Thus,

overall impact was not significant.

However, each sector posted occupancy rate decline in 2015. The dropping rate was greater in MT

compared with HTA and HTB. Occupancy rates of HTA and HTB fell by 3 percentage points for each

in 2015 from 2014 (i.e. HTA: 86% 83%, HTB: 91% 88%). While, MT dropped 5 percentage

points from 92% in 2014 to 87% in 2015. In 1Q16, occupancy rates largely improved.

Room rate by hotel classification also witnessed similar paths of all hotels (Figure 19). In 2010-14,

room rates of HTA, HTB and MT rose at 5.7%, 6.2% and 6.8% CAGR respectively.

However, in 2015, room rates dropped for all classifications. More significant decline was observed

in lower tariff hotels such as HTB and MT. Room rates of HTB and MT fell by

-11.5% and -11.0% YoY respectively in 2015, amid HTA’s room rate posted a relatively less decline

by -7.5% YoY. In 1Q16, room rates continued its downward trend for all classifications.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0001 0203 04 0506 0708 09 1011 1213 14 15

HTA

HTB

MT

(HKD)

-7.5%

-11.5%

-11.0%

-8.6%

-9.1%

-10.2%

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

HTA

HTB

MT

(%)

-3%pt

-3%pt

-5%pt

1Q

15

1Q

16

Figure 18: Occupancy Rate by Hotel Classification Figure 19: Room Rate by Hotel Classification

(Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU (Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

1Q

15

1Q

16

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10

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

◇ Higher tariff hotels were relatively immune against decline in mainland Chinese visitors

The major reasons for underperformed lower tariff hotels in 2015 could be addressed by comparing

country of guests portfolios by hotel classification (Figure 20).

HTA’s guests consisted of large portion of long-haul visitors. Together with Europe (15.9%),

America (15.1%), Oceania (6.1%) and others (2.2%), long haul visitors accounted for 39.3%.

Other Asia (excl. Mainland China) filled 31.7% and mainland China shared relatively smaller

portion of 25.8% compared with lower tariff hotels.

For HTB, guests from other Asia (excl. Mainland China) accounted for 35.2%, followed by

mainland China (33.2%) and long haul visitors (30.7%).

MT’s guest concentration was more severe as it largely depends on mainland China. Mainland

China accounted for 42.8%, followed by other Asia (33.0%) and long haul visitors (24.2%).

As we confirmed earlier, decline in overnight visitors in 2015 was owing to drop in overnight mainland

Chinese visitors, while visitors from others remained steady. Thus, it affected MT the most and

resulted in its underperforming. On the other hand, HTA was relatively immune.

In addition, HTA is more flexible when facing

decline in room guests as revenue sources are

more diversified compared with lower tariff

hotels (Figure 21).

HTA’s department revenue per available room

was generated by rooms (56.5%) and Food &

Beverage (39.3%), while MT’s revenue was

highly relied on rooms (85.8%) and less

contribution by Food & Beverage (12.2%).

Figure 20: Country of Guests by Hotel Classification (2010-14)

Figure 21: Breakdown of Revenue (2014)

(Note) Revenue per available room was used (Source) HKTB, Hong Kong Hotel Industry Review, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

Department HTA HTB MT

Rooms 56.5% 73.4% 85.8%

Food & Beverage 39.3% 23.3% 12.2%

Telephone 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Spa/Health Club 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%

Minor 1.4% 1.4% 0.8%

Rental&Other Income 1.2% 1.3% 0.9%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Other Asia, 35.2%

Mainland China, 33.2%

Europe, 13.7%

America, 9.6%

Oceania, 5.8%

Others, 1.6%

Airline Crew, 0.9%HTB

Other Asia, 31.7%

Mainland China, 25.8%

Europe, 15.9%

America, 15.1%

Oceania, 6.1%

Airline Crew, 3.2%

Others, 2.2%HTA

Mainland China, 42.8%

Other Asia, 33.0%

Europe, 9.3%

America, 8.7%

Oceania, 4.4%

Others, 1.9%

MT

(Note) 1. Figures shown are averages of percentage in 2010-14 2. Other Asia refers to Asian countries excluding mainland China; Others include Middle East and Africa (Source) HKTB, Hong Kong Hotel Industry Review, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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11

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

(2) Financial Performance

◇ Higher tariff hotels maintained stable NOIPAR margin and remained relatively healthier

conditions during market downturn compared with lower tariff hotels

Higher tariff hotels, especially HTA,

remained stable over the past longer periods

(Figure 22).

Higher tariff hotels were less affected by

extraordinary negative impacts in 2001, 2003

and 2009, while lower tariff hotels like MT

saw more fluctuations and posted negative

margins in 2001 and 2003.

It implied HTA’s thicker buffer to remain

profitable even under the difficult market due

to more flexibility with other revenue source

and better operational management such as

cost control.

A number of HTA hotels have high quality restaurants to attract local customers. In these days,

many of those HTA hotels are offering more promotions on luncheon buffet and fine dining to

encourage sales from other source of revenue. Also, some large HTA hotels could generate revenue

from banquette for large events.

Generally, HTA hotels have better management to control the cost by streamlining operation,

employing more contract staffs instead of permanent staffs and using outsourcing services

(i.e. Laundry and cleaning etc.).

Figure 22: NOIPAR Margin by Hotel Classification

(Source) HKTB and Others, Hong Kong Hotel Industry Review, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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60

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

HTA

HTB

MT

(%)

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12

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

III. Major Hotel Company / Group

1. Market Structure

◇ Revenue of top 10 hotel companies / groups held 37.6% of total in 2015 with solid positions

of local hotels

In terms of market share of hotel by revenue in

Hong Kong, top 10 hotel companies / groups

accounted for 37.6% of total revenues of all

hotels in 2015 (Figure 23).

Harbour Plaza Hotels & Resorts ranked top

with 7.8% of market share in the market,

followed by Marriott, Regal Hotels, Sun Hung

Kai and so on. Especially, local hotel

companies / groups were well positioned.

Majority of local hotel companies / groups are

owned and/or operated by local property

developers / investors (Figure 24).

Figure 24: Number of Room by Major Local Hotel Company / Group (2015)

(Note) Above list is as per information from Euromonitor. Some hotels may not be covered (Source) Euromonitor Int'l, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

Local Hotel Company / Group HotelRoom

(1,000)

CK Property Holdings Harbour Plaza Hotel 3.3

- Rambler 1.6

Harbour Grand 1.4

Kowloon Hotel 0.7

Regal Hotels International Regal 3.9

- one of the largest hotel groups in Hong Kong iclub 0.3

Sun Hung Kai Properties Royal Plaza Hotel 0.7

- one of the leading property developers Royal View Hotel 0.7

in Hong Kong Four Seasons 0.4

Royal Garden 0.4

Royal Park Hotel 0.4

Sino Group Royal Pacific Hotel & Towers 0.7

- a hotel and property development group in City Garden Hotel 0.6

Hong Kong Conrad Hong Kong 0.5

Hong Kong Gold Coast Hotel 0.5

Island Pacific Hotel 0.3

Kerry Group Shangri-La 1.3

- a group in hotel, property and logistics business Hotel Jen 0.3

Jardine Matheson Holdgs. The Excelsior 0.9

- a multinational conglomerate with businesses in hotel and Mandarin Oriental 0.6

property development mainly in Asia

Wharf (Holdgs) Ltd. Marco Polo 0.7

- a leading property investment and development Gateway 0.4

group in Hong Kong Prince 0.4

Henderson Land Development Mira 0.5

- a leading property developer in Hong Kong Silvermine 0.1

Mira Moon 0.1

HK Metropark China National Travel Service (HK) Metropark 1.4

Hotels Mgt Co Ltd - a mainland China-based travel company

Hong Kong & Peninsula 0.3

Shanghai Hotels Ltd - mainly a hotel development and management company

Owned and / or Operated by

Harbour Plaza Hotels & Resortsa major subsidiary of Hong Kong's top property developer CK

Hutchison Holdings

Regal Hotels International

Holdings Ltd

Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd

Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd

Shangri-La Asia Ltd

Miramar Hotel & Investment Co

Ltd

Hong Kong & Shanghai Hotels Ltd

Mandarin Oriental International

Ltd

Marco Polo Hotels Management

Ltd

Figure 23: Market Share of Hotel Company/Group

by Revenue (2015)

(Note) 1. * refers to local hotel companies / groups 2. Airbnb is not included (Source) Euromonitor, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

Hotel Company / Group %

1 Harbour Plaza Hotels & Resorts* 7.8

2 Marriott Int'l Inc 5.4

3 Regal Hotels Int'l Holdings Ltd* 4.6

4 Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd* 4.4

5 Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd* 3.1

6 Shangri-La Asia Ltd* 2.9

7 Hyatt Hotels Corp 2.7

8 Mandarin Oriental Int'l Ltd* 2.6

9 Marco Polo Hotels Management Ltd* 2.6

10 Accor Hotels Group 1.5

11 Miramar Hotel & Investment Co Ltd* 1.3

12 HK Metropark Hotels Management Co Ltd* 1.1

13 Hong Kong & Shanghai Hotels Ltd* 0.8

- Others 59.0

37.6%

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13

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

2. Performance of Major Local Hotels

◇ Key operating indicators improved in the past 6-year and remained high level despite

downward trends in 2015

In line with industry performance, major local hotels registered overall improvement on key operating

indicators over the past 6 years since the recovery year from the global financial crisis.

According to various data sources, most hotels saw significant improvement in occupancy rate in

2010-15 despite YoY decline in 2015. Average Daily Rate (“ADR”) also grew gradually during the

same periods for most hotels even though it saw downward adjustments in 2015 along with decline in

occupancy rate under the soft market.

Therefore, RevPAR, which is derived from multiplying occupancy rate with ADR, improved notably

in 2010-15 as occupancy rate and ADR mostly rose. By following the trends of occupancy rate and

ADR, RevPAR decreased YoY in 2015.

Although some operational performances of major local hotels declined in 2015 compared to last year,

occupancy rate in 2015 was still high at 85% in average. Also, ADR and RevPAR remained at a high

level in 2015. Especially, favourable high growth in RevPAR in 2010-15 allowed hotels to well cover

the rising costs and maintain profitable positions.

< Comments from Major Property Consultants >

“Although we don’t have exact data from each hotel, it is considered that revenue of hotel was enough to

cover the cost to remain profitable despite weakened market in 2015. So far, we haven’t heard of any

hotel suffering from loss in 2015. Hotel business is rather stable and less fluctuating compared with other

commercial properties.”

“I don't think hotels in Hong Kong are under pressure to record loss. Market condition is not as great as it

was, but occupancy rate and room rates are still high. Thus, hotel sector is profitable despite margin could

have been posted downward correction.” (Aug 2016)

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14

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

IV. Outlook and Conclusion

1. Industry Outlook

(1) Demand

◇ Overnight visitors may remain weak in the short term under economic uncertainties

Overnight visitor arrivals may stay weak as unfavourable macro-economic conditions are unlikely to

reverse in the near future and tight competitions may remain.

There are rising uncertainties in global economy as many regions are under the headwind due to weak

commodities prices, geopolitical tensions and recent Brexit. Especially, China economy may continue

to slow down and HKD might remain strong.

According to recent outlook by IMF, global GDP is forecast to see slow growth (Figure 25). In 2016,

global economy expects to grow at a modest 3.1%, broadly in line with last year, and it may improve

moderately in 2017. US economy is projected to see steady growth, and China economy may still

expand, despite growing at the slowest level over the past 25 years.

Given the above, inbound visitors may neither pick up significantly nor further drop sharply. HKTB

projects total visitor arrivals including overnight and same day visitors to shrink, but at a decelerating

pace, by -1.8% YoY in 2016 (Figure 26).

Anticipating decline in visitors would be mainly due to one country factor of weakening mainland

Chinese visitors, while visitors from others may remain stable. Thus, there is no critical change or

deterioration on Hong Kong city itself, and Hong Kong would remain as highly attractive destination.

Figure 26: Total Visitor Arrivals Forecast Figure 25: GDP Growth Forecast

-4

-2

0

2

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6

8

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Global

Hong Kong

China

(%)

Forecast

(Note) IMF forecast figures were used for global and China, while Bloomberg consensus forecast was used for Hong Kong (Source) IMF, Bloomberg, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

-2.5

-1.8

-5

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20

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40

50

60

70

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

(Million) (YoY, %)

Total Visitors

Growth rate(RHS)

Forecast

(Source) HKTB, CEIC, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

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15

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

◇ Hong Kong is expected to remain as an attractive destination supported by ongoing

development or enhancement of diversified tourist attractions

Hong Kong continues to develop and enhance various tourist attractions. Such major projects are

expected to help to draw tourists and increase revisits.

Ocean Park is developing an all-weather indoor cum outdoor water park at Tai Shue Wan, which

is expected to be completed in 2H18. According to market information, Park’s first hotel, Hong

Kong Ocean Park Marriott Hotel, could be introduced at the earliest in 2017.

Hong Kong Disneyland will continue to introduce a series of new initiatives. A new themed area

with Marvel’s Iron Man franchise and a new exploration-themed hotel may open in end-2016 and

early 2017 respectively in tentative plan.

In addition, several enhancement projects are in progress. Dr Sun Yat-sen Historical Trail will be

updated and enriched by this year. Revitalizing the Avenue of Stars is expected to be completed

in 2018.

Some of the potential visitors to Hong Kong Disneyland could be absorbed by Shanghai Disneyland,

but Hong Kong would remain its popularity over time.

There is concern that visitors may further deteriorate as one of major attraction Hong Kong

Disneyland could lose its competitiveness due to recent opening of Shanghai Disneyland in Jun

2016. Thus, some potential visitors to Hong Kong Disneyland would be inevitably absorbed by

Shanghai Disneyland, and impact might be more apparent in the short term.

However, Hong Kong Disneyland has its own strengths such as more international taste, warm

weather in winter and still cost efficiency with convenience of travel for visitors from close

distance of Guangdong and southern China. In addition, Hong Kong Disneyland is under the

expansion and will open new attractions including Iron Man-themed area and an exploration-

themed hotel.

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

◇ In the long term future, cross boarder infrastructure projects may support visitor flow

There are two large-scale cross boarder

infrastructure projects in progress, namely Hong

Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (“HZMB”) and

Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail

Link (“GSHXRL”). Both projects are expected to

complete in 2018 at the earliest.

HZMB consists of bridges and tunnels crossing

Lingdingyang channel that will connect Hong Kong,

Macau and Zhuhai (Figure 27). Approximate 50

kilometres-length project is expected to shorten

travelling time from Macau and Zhuhai to Hong

Kong from current 60mins to 45mins.

GSHXRL is high speed rail development connecting

Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong. This would reduce travelling time from Guangzhou to Shenzhen

from 120mins to 48mins, and from Shenzhen to Hong Kong from 45mins to 14mins.

With support from substantial reduction on travelling time, these mega-size projects may facilitate

intercity traffic flow upon completions. Therefore, it is likely to support more inbound travellers and

might enhance hospitality industry in Hong Kong.

Figure 27: HZMB and GSHXRL Projects

(Source) HZMB, Public information

Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

45mins 14mins

60mins 45mins

120mins 48mins

< Comment from a Major Property Consultant >

“Development of bridges between Hong Kong and Macau as well as high speed rail link between China

and Hong Kong are expected to stimulate traffic flow. Not only leisure purpose, but also travellers for

business could be encouraged as they could come across to country more easily for face-to-face meetings

rather than video conference.”

(Aug 2016)

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17

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

(2) Supply

◇ Supply might rise moderately with possibility of downward adjustment

Based on the current schedule, supply of

hotel rooms may rise by 2.7% YoY in 2016

and it would increase further at above 4.5%

in 2017-18 (Figure 28).

Hotel room supply has been adjusted flexibly

in line with demand condition. In fact, hotel

room supply were estimated to grow by 3.0%,

4.4% and 5.4% YoY in 2015-17 according to

the projections made in 2015. However, it

turned out increasing 1.5% in 2015 and has

adjusted lower for 2016-17.

For the recent cases, due to soft tourism

condition, the original plans of hotel

developments have changed to office developments for better investment returns. Developers

Henderson Land, Tai Hung Fai Enterprise and Billion Development have all changed their hotel

development plans in North Point, Western Central and Tsuen Wan area into office or commercial

buildings.

Also, Hong Kong government reassured not to stop selling land for housing development in order to

solve shortage supply of residential units. While, there is possibility to re-plan the land originally

designed for hotel into residential development in some areas (e.g. Kai Tak Development Area). Thus,

supply may not overflow in the market.

Figure 28: Total Hotel Rooms Supply Forecast

(Note) Total hotel rooms include the number of rooms of HTA, HTB, MT as well as unclassified hotels (Source) HKTB, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

1.52.7

4.94.5

0.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

20

40

60

80

100

05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

(Thousand) (YoY, %)

Total Hotel Rooms

Growth rate(RHS)

Forecast

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18

Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

◇ Supply of HTA hotels would be limited especially in prime area

As for major new supply projects, majority of hotel supply would be located in non-prime locations

North Point, Kwun Tong and San Po Kong etc. (Figure 29).

Over the next 4 years, hotel room supply (over 100 rooms) in non-prime locations would account to

72.9%, while that in prime locations is expected to be relatively small at 27.1%. Although there is no

available information for the tariff classification on future hotel projects, it is estimated that supply of

HTA hotels in prime location might be even more limited in next few years according to market insight.

(Note) 1. Above showed hotel / hotel extension projects (over 100 rooms) approved by Building Authority 2. As of HKTB's 1Q16 report, no specific completion schedule is released yet on well-known projects of redevelopment of Murray Building in Central and Disney Explorers Lodge in Lantau Island and Ocean Park Hotel (Source) HKTB, Company, Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

District Hotel/ Location Rooms District Hotel/ Location Rooms

Wan Chai 373 Queen's Rd East 299 Hung Hom Kerry Hotel Hong Kong 545

Tsim Sha Tsui 114 Austin Road 155

Tsim Sha Tsui Rosewood Hong Kong 600 Kwai Tsing Cheung Wing Road 380

Tsim Sha Tsui 18 Salisbury Road 334 Sha Tin Siu Lek Yuen Road 680

Wan Chai 26 Harbour Road 120 Sai Kung Wai Man Road 275

To Kwa Wan iclub To Kwa Wan Hotel 340

Kwun Tong 97 How Ming St. 286

San Po Kong 20 Tai Yau St. 334

Tsim Sha Tsui Butterfly on Austin 197 Kwun Tong i Hotel (Kwun Tong) 178

Mongkok iclub Mongkok Hotel 288 North Point North Point & Shu Kuk St. 680

Tai Kok Tsui 103 Tung Chau St. 154

San Po Kong 210 Choi Hung Road 437

North Point Oil Street 840

Yau Tong 428 Cha Kwo Ling Road 454

2019 Wan Chai 25 Morrison Hill Road 161 Kwun Tong 28A Hung To Road 168

Sub-total (Hotels with over 100 rooms) 2,154 Sub-total (Hotels with over 100 rooms) 5,751

Total (All hotels) 3,134 Total (All hotels) 6,5932016-2019

2018

Prime Location Non-Prime Location

2016

2017

Figure 29: Future Major New Supply by Locations

< Comments from Major Property Consultants >

“HTA hotels had very limited new supply so far especially in prime location. Limited supply of HTA in

prime area is expected to continue. Possibility of oversupply is slim in prime areas like Tsim Sha Tsui or

Wan Chai”

“New supply of high tariff hotels in prime location would be limited due to lack of suitable site from

either new bare land or redevelopment targets.” (Aug 2016)

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

(3) Government Stance

◇ Government steps up to stimulate tourism industry covering hotel sector

Government takes supportive stance to boost tourism industry amid softening market condition as it

is an important sector in the economy which contributes about 5% of Hong Kong GDP.

According to 2016-17 budget announcement, government pledges HKD 380 million, an extra HKD

174 million more than previously estimated amount, for short- to medium-term measures aiming at

lifting tourism industry. The funds would be more dedicated toward utilizing city’s culture and

historical heritage to build up Hong Kong’s reputation as a tourist destination.

Short term measure costing HKD 140million includes waiving of licence fees for a year for 2,000

hotels and guesthouses, 1,800 travel agents and 27,000 restaurants.

For medium term, a total HKD 240 million would be allocated and the measures may cover

extending the scale of major events, exploring new visitor sources, publicity and marketing,

enriching the content of attractions and etc.

◇ Exploring short-haul markets would be more focused, while IVS policy may remain

unchanged

As the tourism market experienced difficult time last year and the scheme has not included any new

cities after 2007, there were some opinions to extend IVS to more cities.

However, government’s current stance is not to open up IVS to more cities in China. Instead,

government would focus more on overseas markets especially in short-hauls.

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

2. Performance by Hotel Classification and Area

◇ Higher tariff hotels located in prime area would be stable and remain competitive

Given weak overall industry outlook, performances of hotels are expected to stay soft in the near future.

Nevertheless, performance may vary by hotel classification and area.

By classification, higher tariff hotels would be relatively stable in terms of occupancy rate and ADR

compared with lower classes.

HTA might be in better positions compared with HTB and MT as it depends less on mainland

Chinese guests. Overnight visitors excluding mainland Chinese are likely to remain steady without

any significant fluctuations under the forecast of global GDP growth. Average length of stays by

those visitors have been extended and may continue to remain steady. In addition, better

management and diversified source of revenue other than rooms such as F&B would support

revenue level and give more buffer under the soft tourism market.

On the other hand, MT would be affected the most from the decline of mainland Chinese given its

concentration of guest portfolio on them. Average staying days of mainland Chinese have been

lowered recently. Furthermore, revenue source is highly focused on room business. Thus, it is

relatively vulnerable to soft tourism condition.

By location, hotels in prime area are expected to remain competitive compared with hotels in non-

prime.

Hotels in prime locations with convenient transportation as well as immediate distance to major

conference venues or tourist attractions would be stable (i.e. Central, Wan Chai and Tsim Sha Tsui

etc.). Also, other than redevelopment projects, pure new supply in prime locations might be very

limited in the future due to lack of land for hotel sites. Thus, there is slim chance to encounter

oversupply.

While, hotels in non-prime locations might be less competitive to compete with hotels in prime

area during the market downturn. As majority of new supply is scheduled to enter in non-prime

area, it could face keen competition.

Overall, HTA hotels in prime locations would be competitive and better positioned given their

flexibility with management capability and diversified sources of revenue.

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

< Comments from Various Major Property Consultants >

Hotel Tariff Classification

“Under the soft market, performance would be different by hotel. Hotels for low-end guests in far-

off areas would be suffered and restrain overall hotel performance, while HTA in core location may

be resilient.”

“HTA would remain stable overall considering large long haul guests and strong F&B sector.

However, MT might be weak due to decline in mainland Chinese visitors.”

(Aug 2016)

“New confirmed hotel projects with specific information on the completion are mostly for MT hotels,

while HTA hotels are estimated to account for less than 5% out of those projects in the next 3-4 years.

Thus, higher tariff hotels may largely remain steady and stay profitable.”

(Jan 2016)

Area

“Hotels in prime areas tend to perform better than those in the non-prime areas. Some prime areas

have their unique feature such as Wan Chai with the backing of Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition

Centre. There is less reliance on leisure guests visiting Hong Kong for shopping ”

“Higher tariff hotels in prime areas such as Central, Wan Chai and Tsim Sha Tsui would be stable,

while lower tariff in non-core area may face challenge.”

(Aug 2016)

Operation by International Brand

“We consider location first and then hotel management in a hotel project. Management capability is

important as it enables hotel to remain profitable during the downturn with sophisticated adjustments,

various promotions and better cost control.”

(Aug 2016)

Overall Industry Fundamental

“There is a little chance to see fundamental turnaround in the near term. However, China is trying to

keep GDP growth level and visitors from other countries may stay stable. Thus, hotel performance

may soften rather than see dramatic decline.”

(Aug 2016)

“Hotel industry was affected by weakened demand in 2015. However, hotel supply also grew very

slowly. Occupancy rate declined, but still stood at high level hovering around 85%. Occupancy rate

and room rate are expected to see mild corrections.”

(Jan 2016)

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

3. Conclusion

◇ Overall industry environment might be soft, but higher tariff and prime locations are key

factors to remain competitive and keep relatively stable performance

Hotel industry in Hong Kong would be affected by anticipated soft demand under the tepid macro-

economic conditions. Decline in mainland Chinese visitors would be the main cause for weak demand.

Under the circumstance, HTA might remain competitive due to less concentration on mainland

Chinese guests with large proportion of long haul visitors. In addition, other stable source of revenue

such as F&B would provide buffer to cover unfavourable revenue from room sales in case of tourism

downturn to a certain extent.

Supply is expected to increase. However, majority of new completions would be scheduled to enter in

non-prime area, while prime area might account for small portion. Even, HTA projects in prime area

are estimated to be limited.

Overall, lower tariff hotels in non-prime locations might be comparably weak with possibility of

oversupply. However, HTA hotels in prime locations may maintain competitive and remain stable.

- End -

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

Appendix

Hong Kong Map

(Source) Strategic Research Division (HK) of BTMU

Non-prime Locations: Hung Hom North Point Sha Tin Kwun Tong San Po Kong Yau Tong

Central Tsim Sha Tsui Mongkok Yaumatei Wan Chai Prime Locations: Sheung Wan

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Hong Kong Hotel Industry|September 2016

Publisher:The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division (Corporate Research Office)

2-7-1, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8388, Japan

Contact details for inquiries : Kouichi Akimoto

(TEL:03-3240-5386、e-mail:[email protected])

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