CER Apr. 2016
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Adaptive anachronismAdaptive anachronism
APRIL 2016 VOL. 27, NO. 1 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2016 4
• Delta forces• Delta forces
• Box offi ce boom• Box offi ce boom
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EDITOR’S NOTE |
Adaptive anachronism
APRIL 2016 VOL. 27, NO. 1 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2016 4
• Delta forces
• Box office boom
•
•
In this issue, China Economic Review takes a look at some
of the big questions of the next phase of the China story, as
reflected in the latest Five Year Plan that will impact fundamen-
tally on China’s economy from this year through to 2021. The
golden years of 10 percent annual growth are clearly behind us,
and the implications of a “new normal” involving slower growth
are only slowly becoming clear. The Plan provides important
insight into how Beijing’s top planners see things. Also in this
issue, we look at the current state of China’s movie industry,
an enormously positive story with booming box office takings
reflecting a shift in middle-class entertainment discretionary
spending habits, and the problems and opportunities raised
by the growing integration of Hong Kong with Shenzhen and
beyond.
China Economic Review | April 2016 03
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The House View
8 Top-shelf assets
News Highlights
12 News briefs
Cover Story
16 Adaptive anachronism
Economy
30 Delta forces
36 Box offi ce boom
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CONTENT
Cover storyAdaptive anachronism16China’s latest fi ve-year plan for the economy could be its last
China Economic Review | April 201604
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CONTENT
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China Economic Review | April 201606
THE HOUSE VIE W
China’s outbound investment goes from third-world to fi rst-tier
It was barely a month since China
had capped its biggest year ever for
mergers and acquisitions abroad
when word leaked of another record-
breaking bid: China National Chemical
Corp. was reportedly in talks to buy
Swiss agribusiness giant Syngenta for
around US$43 billion.
Less than a day after reports surfaced
on the deal, Syngenta went public with
plans to accept the offer, launching both
firms running through a gauntlet of
daunting regulatory scrutiny and kick-
ing off 2016 with a deal equal to more
than two-thirds of China’s total US$61
billion in completed outbound merger
and acquisition (M&A) transactions for
2015.
Hypotheticals aside, the deal rep-
resents another resounding volley in a
new direction that has come to domi-
nate China’s steadily growing levels of
international investment.
“Chinese investment abroad has
gone from developing countries with
resources to developed countries with
diverse kinds of assets,” said Derek Scis-
sors, a resident scholar at the Ameri-
can Enterprise Institute and author of
the China Global Investment Tracker,
a database that keeps a running total of
major Chinese investments abroad.
Now, as acquisitions continue to
shift in terms of sector and location,
the Syngenta bid has raised questions
about how big Chinese bids can get—
and exactly which companies will be
making them.
New frontiersAIE’s China Global Investment Tracker
is not the only tool for keeping tabs
on outbound investment by mainland
companies, and estimates vary among
aggregators as to exactly how much
China has racked up in recent years.
But virtually all observers agree there
has been a shift away from investments
in commodities, which previously dom-
inated. The AEI database - the scope
of which is limited to deals of at least
US$95 million that can be directly veri-
fied - makes equally clear who the win-
ners and losers are now that Chinese
investor interest has fundamentally
changed, even as the headline figure for
investment abroad has steadily risen.
Perhaps the most visible impact has
been in resources-rich South America.
In 2010 China invested US$33.84 bil-
lion in the region, most of it in energy.
In 2015 that amount had more than
halved, with investments and contracts
falling to US$16.36 billion.
In Europe the trend is just the oppo-
site: Where Chinese investment sat at
a paltry US$9.11 billion in 2010, the
continent was sitting pretty last year at
US$35.13 billion total. An overview of
Chinese foreign direct investment in
Europe by the Mercator Institute for
China Studies and Rhodium Group
showed the majority of that money
flowing into Britain, France and Ger-
many.
Some countries, such as the US and
Australia, have seen relatively strong
investment growth since the database
was started in 2005 up to today even
Top-shelf assets
China Economic Review | April 201608
THE HOUSE VIE W
after rapid diversification began in
2010. Perhaps the biggest loser from
the developed world in recent years has
been Canada, which has seen Chinese
investment shrink precipitously since
2012, when state-run CNOOC bought
Canadian oil-sands firm Nexen for
US$15.1 billion.
Sector by sectorEnergy and metals were once China’s
longtime outbound investment focus
as it sought to feed a boom in the
mainland real estate market and heavy
industry: Between 2008-2010 the two
sectors accounted for about two-thirds
of total outbound investment.
When the AEI database began track-
ing investment in 2005, energy stood
at 42% of the total; it would eventually
rise to 59% in 2010. Investment in met-
als also grew at a rapid clip early in the
century, rising to 27% of the total in
2008.
By 2015 energy’s share had dropped
to a still-respectable 28% of the total,
but metals accounted for only 5%.
The transport sector’s share of
investment has done just the opposite,
rising from a nadir of about 9% in 2010
to 26% in 2015. Scissors said recent
projects went beyond previous years’
model of in-and-out road building:
Chinese firms increasingly stay on after
completing construction of toll roads
and rail lines to run them, while direct
investment has become concentrated in
airlines, aircraft production, shipping
lines and ports.
Real estate, too, been bolstered
by acquisitions in major global hubs
like New York and London as well as
high-profile cities such as Chicago and
Sydney. Total real estate investment –
including off-the-plan and secondary
purchases –accounted for 17% of the
total in 2015, with tourism adding 2-4
percentage points since it was broken
out into its own category in 2013 to
reflect projects abroad that specifically
target Chinese tourists.
But even the latest top-shelf projects
announced by property tycoon Wang
Jianlin - including a EUR3-billion lei-
sure park in France - don’t measure
up to the tech sector in terms of global
attention paid. Whether that is war-
ranted, however, is another matter.
Tech and technicalitiesIn the US in particular, government
sensitivity to Chinese firms attempt-
ing to acquire tech companies or their
subsidiaries appears to be on the rise.
The latest annual report from the Com-
mittee on Foreign Investment in the US
(CFIUS) placed China in the top spot
for the third year running in 2014.
Together with heavy coverage of
deals that fell apart after drawing inter-
est from the committee - such as when
a consortium of mainland firms walked
away from a US$2.8 billion bid for a
unit of Philipps and Unisplendor’s
withdrawal of a bid for 15% of Western
Digital - appear to suggest Washington
has become uneasy with an influx of
Chinese money into America’s tech sec-
tor.
In a February review of transactions
from recent years that were scrutinized
by the CFIUS, Thilo Hanemann and
Daniel Rosen of the advisory firm Rho-
dium Group argued that the perceived
spike in inspections of Chinese bids was
business as usual in light of concurrent
growth in total transactions.
Not that Chinese firms aren’t mak-
ing a concerted effort to snap up deals
in the US semiconductor industry: The
five confirmed major Chinese bids in
the sector last year were worth a cumu-
lative US$5.78 billion.
But the bids that failed to go through
weren’t shocking in light of industry
history: Fairchild Semiconductors
- which rejected a US$2.5 billion bid
from China Resources and Hua Capital
Management in 2015 - had also been
the target of a 1987 bid from Japan’s
Fujitsu that prompted the creation of
the CFIUS in the first place.
All in or all out?A successful bid for Syngenta would
not only reverberate through the global
agribusiness industry—by dint of its
size, it would also mark the reversal of
a trend that has seen private Chinese
investors account for more and more of
total outbound investment.
“For a long time there was no private
investment,” Scissors said. He noted
that while state-owned firms still domi-
nated per dollar spent acquiring assets
abroad, since 2012 private firms had
seen their share rise to about 30% of
outbound investment.
Even if that share falls, it would still
make for gains by private investment in
absolute terms. But Scissors also point-
ed to the latest wave of notable invest-
ments from companies like Wanda and
Haier as potentially reflecting concen-
trated attempts at portfolio diversifica-
tion in the face of diminishing opportu-
nities at home.
“There may be rounds of this,” he
said, as more companies from differ-
ent sectors sought profits offshore—
though he added the likelihood of that
will depend on how top leaders fare in
handling a welter of challenges now fac-
ing China’s economy. “Nothing is set in
stone.”
China Economic Review | April 2016 09
NE WS ROUNDUP
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
PBOC reached out to US Fed during summer stock crisisDocuments from the US Feder-
al Reserve acquired by Reuters news
agency through a Freedom of Infor-
mation Act request revealed that the
People’s Bank of China reached out to
the US central bank amid the implo-
sion of mainland equity prices in July
of last year to ask for help. An email
to a senior Fed staffer, the PBOC chief
representative for the Americas pointed
to the Fed’s handling of the 1987 US
stock market crash, noting "my Gover-
nor would like to draw from your good
experience." The email reply included
a short summary of the Fed’s measures
in 1987 and dozens of Fed transcripts,
reports and statements--all of which
were publicly available.
PBOC governor warns China’s corporate debt too highZhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Peo-
ple’s Bank of China, cautioned that
corporate debt levels are too high, The
Financial Times reported, citing com-
ments given at a meeting with business
leaders in Beijing. "Lending and other
debt as a share of GDP, especially cor-
porate lending and other debt as a share
of GDP, is on the high side," Zhou said,
adding that highly leveraged economies
were more vulnerable to macroeconom-
ic risk. The Bank for International Set-
tlements has warned that a recent spike
in corporate and private debt in emerg-
ing markets was "eerily reminiscent" of
the financial boom in advanced econo-
mies ahead of the global financial crisis.
China’s international patent fil-ings jumped 16% in 2015China’s total global patent filings
jumped 16% to 29,846 in 2015 from the
previous year, Tech In Asia reported,
citing data from the World Intellectual
Property Organization on filings valid
in 148 countries under the global Patent
Cooperation Treaty. China smartphone
manufacturer Huawei filed for 3,898
patents, making it the world’s most
active filer for the second year running
and exceeding runner-up Qualcomm
by more than 60%. Huawei competitor
ZTE filed 2,155 patents to come in at
third place globally. While the uptick in
patent filings does not necessarily trans-
late to an increase in feasible products or
innovation, it does suggest China is tak-
ing international patents more seriously.
ENN to purchase $750mn stake in Australian gas supplier SantosPrivate Chinese natural gas distributor
ENN will become the largest sharehold-
er in Australian gas producer Santos
with the purchase of a US$750 million
stake from mainland private equity
fund Hony Capital, Reuters reported,
citing a statement from the distributor.
"We are gaining a strategic investor and
partner in Hony Capital whose deep
China experience and global outlook
can help us accelerate future growth
overseas," ENN Group chairman Wang
Yusuo said. Bankers have said private
distributors in China are seeking to lock
in supplies of liquefied natural gas to
ease their dependence on state-owned
behemoths such as Sinopec, CNOOC
and PetroChina.
China Economic Review | April 201612
China announces first-ever ener-gy consumption capChina released its first energy con-
sumption cap, targeting 5 billion tons
of standard coal equivalent by 2020,
Reuters reported, citing figures from
the latest five-year plan. Yang Fuqiang,
senior adviser at the Natural Resourc-
es Defense Council, said the 5 billion
figure was calculated by combining
China’s 6.5% economic growth projec-
tions for 2016-2020 with its target to
cut energy intensity by 15% over the
same period. "Based on my experience
the government plans are conservative,"
Yang said. "There could be a higher
18% cut in energy intensity, and that
means energy consumption could be
kept at about 4.8 billion tons."
Facebook’s Zuckerberg meets with China propaganda chiefFacebook chief executive and found-
er Mark Zuckerberg met with China’s
propaganda chief Liu Yunshan. Accord-
ing to state news service Xinhua, Liu
told Zuckerberg he hoped Facebook
could share its experience with Chi-
nese firms to help "Internet develop-
ment better benefit the people of all
countries". The meeting is the latest
in a string of thus far fruitless efforts
by Zuckerberg to get access to China’s
hundreds of millions of Internet users,
and comes on the heels of the Face-
book founder’s highly-publicized jog
through Tiananmen Square while air
pollution in Beijing stood at 15 times
recommended levels.
Hebei will shutter 60% of steel mills by 2020Hebei province announced it will shut-
ter 240 of 400 steel factories by 2020,
Caixin reported, citing an announce-
ment from the provincial governor. As
the province weans itself off steel, it will
lose RMB180 billion in revenue and lay
off more than one million workers. New
projects have been banned until the
province reaches a production target of
200 million tons per year. The bulk of
the cuts will be made by smaller opera-
tors with a capacity below 300,000 tons
per year. Concrete production capac-
ity will also be slashed by two-thirds, or
some 60 million tons, and coal and glass
production will be cut as well.
XMC breaks ground on $24bn factory as part of China chip-making driveState-owned contract chipmaker XMC
is investing US$24 billion in building
out its semiconductor production and
supply chain capabilities as part of a
government push to make inroads into
the strategic sector, The Wall Street
Journal reported. An XMC spokesman
said the money, largely from a nation-
al semiconductor fund and provincial
government of Hubei, would be invest-
ed in three stages: an initial factory
focused on flash-memory production,
another plant producing chips, and a
third phase centered on devoted facili-
ties for suppliers. While the massive
project is a first among China’s chip-
makers, many analysts are skeptical the
company can catch up to regional rivals
in South Korea and Taiwan.
China-backed bank says more than 30 countries await member-shipMore than 30 countries are waiting to
join the China-backed Asian Infrastruc-
ture Investment Bank (AIIB), adding
to its 57 founding members, its presi-
dent said. The AIIB, first proposed less
than two years ago, has become one of
China’s biggest foreign policy successes.
Despite the opposition of Washington,
almost many major U.S. allies - Aus-
tralia, Britain, German, Italy, the Philip-
pines and South Korea - have joined.
Tencent’s annual net profit rises 21% to $4.45bn in 2015Chinese online services conglomerate
Tencent reported a 21% increase in net
profit to RMB28.81 billion (US$4.455
billion) for 2015. Total annual revenue
rose 30% from 2014, driven largely by
smartphone games sales and online
advertising, with average monthly active
users of the company’s Weixin social
network and e-commerce platform
rising to 697 million. Chief Executive
Pony Ma said a major goal for 2016 was
to expand Tencent’s advertising busi-
ness - which saw revenue grow by 110%
in 2015 - by adding more mobile adver-
tising inventory. Ma added that Tencent
had no plans to spin off Weixin.
NE WS ROUNDUP
China Economic Review | April 2016 13
Adaptive anachronism
COVER STORY
China Economic Review | April 201616
China’s latest fi ve-year plan for the economy could be its last
COVER STORY
they will have to learn the hard way that
these complex and globally integrated
economies, they can’t be guided by a
government so easily anymore.”
Bits of history, repeatingChina’s first five-year plan in the true
Soviet sense came shortly after the
founding of the PRC. After initial suc-
cess in boosting industrial output, Mao
Zedong almost brought the just-birthed
state to its knees in 1958 with the disas-
trous follow-up of the Great Leap For-
ward resulting in, according to some
estimates, tens of millions of deaths in
an attempt to cram decades’ worth of
industrialization into half of just one.
Despite serious drawbacks, the old
planning apparatus continued to direct
economic activity even after Mao’s
death in 1976, though centralized plan-
ning of resource allocation was drasti-
cally curtailed starting in the mid-1980s,
at least for sectors not considered vital
to continued party control.
It wasn’t until after the troubles
of 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet
Union that five-year plans lost their
old role: In 1993 the party’s Central
Committee ordered officials to “take
markets as the foundation,” and by the
time the 9th FYP rolled around in 1996
the party-state had begun drastically
reconfiguring the purpose and process
of planning.
In place of a static blueprint, FYPs
were recast as an adaptive, continuous
cycle of policy coordination, imple-
mentation, evaluation, and later,
adjustment. The new planning system
helped preserve the central leadership’s
influence over China’s economy and
ensured continued political control
The outline for China’s 13th
five-year plan is not sum-
mer beach reading: The
22,000-character document, which lays
out in the broadest terms how China’s
leaders want the country’s economy to
develop between now and 2020, is the
peak of consensus policymaking for
which Beijing’s mandarins are famous.
And as with many a seemingly bind-
ing document in China, the plan serves
as the opening salvo for the start of the
real negotiations, as lower echelons of
government begin to interpret the latest
round of orders from on high to better
suit an almost endless variety of agendas
at every ministry, regulator, region and
locality.
In the two decades since the party
largely abandoned its old Soviet-style
economic planning system for a more
adaptive model, the central leadership
has managed to broadly bend China’s
legion of competing interests toward
key developmental targets. But as Chi-
na’s economy grows more complex
and difficult to direct, the feasibility of
this generally successful five-year plan
(FYP) system may be coming to an end.
How the party handles that transition
- and the circumstances under which it
occurs - could have a serious impact on
the party’s legitimacy.
“What’s at stake here is this idea that
a national economy can still be guid-
ed by a party center and a strong gov-
ernment in these times of turbulence
and of structural transformation,” said
Sebastian Heilmann, founding direc-
tor of the Mercator Institute for China
Studies and author of multiple research
papers on China’s planning system.
“This is rather shaky, and I think
China Economic Review | April 2016 17
while also decentralizing decision-
making and providing room for market
forces to play a greater role.
Plan as processPreparation for each FYP can begin as
early as two years before publication,
according to an in-depth analysis of
the planning system co-authored by
Heilmann and Oliver Melton, of the US
Department of State.
The party’s Central Committee typi-
cally approves plan guidelines towards
the end of the year before a given plan-
ning period begins, outlining its content
in broad terms. The National Develop-
ment and Reform Commission then
hammers out the details before Chi-
na’s legislators rubber-stamp a broad,
finalized outline in March, during the
annual session of the National People’s
Congress (NPC).
From there, thousands of sub-plans
are issued by lower levels of govern-
ment, working out the concrete details
of how to actually implement the out-
lined policies.
More recent plans have further con-
solidated the changes of the 1990s: The
11th FYP actually changed its title from
“imperative plan” (jihua) to “coordina-
tive plan” (guihua), and divided top
economic targets into two categories:
“indicative” and “binding”. The lat-
ter are viewed as government prom-
ises, and are used to measure cadres’
performance in annual evaluations to
encourage implementation. The 12th
FYP was the first to fully employ the
new target framework, and further
institutionalized the planning process
under the direction of the NDRC.
With so much advance notice and a
preview of its basic content months in
advance, few were surprised by the con-
tent of the 13th FYP when its full text
was published on March 17. But that
doesn’t mean the plan wasn’t important
- or even surprising - in its own right.
Lukewarm receptionWith the debut of the latest FYP, ana-
lysts and economists issued a raft of
notes generally stating a lack of surprise
at the targets announced for the new
FYP; discounting the possibility of an
immediate hard landing; and expressing
unease over the retention of a growth
goal for headline GDP.
Concern was particularly keen
among those whose estimates already
peg China’s growth below 6.5%, the
average annual rate of expansion the
plan calls on the country to maintain
for the next five years.
“It’s a tough one,” said Julian Evans-
Pritchard, China economist with Capi-
tal Economics. “At least on our measure
the economy is already growing below
that level, so there’s a question of what
are they going to do over the next five
years.”
Pritchard-Evans said he expected
authorities would likely fudge the num-
bers rather than deploy another massive
stimulus like that seen in 2009, which
like that one could prove harmful to the
COVER STORY
China Economic Review | April 201618
COVER STORY
economy in the long run by driving up
overcapacity and wasteful spending.
But he added, “you do wonder why
they still see the need to stand by this
target. Obviously the target was set by
the previous administration, but drop-
ping it would’ve been the right thing
to do.”
While the 6.5% growth goal is not
technically a binding target, it is based
on a basic calculation of how much
growth is necessary to meet the party’s
Centenary Goals, which call for ending
absolute poverty and doubling average
disposable income by 2020.
Heilmann noted that while officials
at the NDRC had expressed doubts to
him about the feasibility and cost of the
poverty alleviation goal, Xi’s repeated
emphasis of the goal as a top-level tar-
get meant the government was likely to
spend heavily on it.
He added that this wasn’t the only
policy target requiring headline growth
to remain high. “It’s actually the base-
line—so this must be achieved, oth-
erwise most of the other goals will not
be achievable,” he said. “The signal is
made clear in this plan, again, that even
though 6.5% was not announced as a
‘binding’ target, it is actually the foun-
dation for most of the other efforts.”
On targetsThose efforts are many, but perhaps the
biggest chunk of text in the 13th FYP
goes toward highlighting the impor-
tance of innovation for China’s econ-
omy.
That focus has been visible since the
Central Committee released its guide-
lines last year. Scott Kennedy, direc-
tor of the Project on Chinese Business
and Political Economy at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies,
wrote of the party leadership’s proposal:
“At its heart, this plan is about innova-
tion first and foremost,” with a focus on
addressing legal, financial and institu-
tional obstacles to innovation.
Kennedy noted that the question
of how exactly to measure China’s
progress toward becoming a more
innovative society remained unan-
swered ahead of the outline’s publica-
tion in March.
The final text does place tremendous
emphasis on innovation, particularly
the role of entrepreneurs and individual
researchers, calling for their role in con-
tributing to national innovation to be
strengthened, the benefits they receive
from their work to be greater, and their
involvement in government policymak-
ing expanded.
Heilmann noted that the outline
even grants entrepreneurs a “right to
speak up” on government decisions in
the field of innovation, though he was
skeptical a top-down policy, likely driv-
en by more state-backed investment
programs, would be enough to spur
bottom-up innovation.
For those workers being forced out
of overcapacity sectors but who are less
entrepreneurially inclined, the plan calls
for the provision of vocational educa-
tion free of charge by 2020.
That aligns with the objective of
restructuring China’s economy away
from heavy industry, and like the recent
announcement of a relatively small
RMB100 billion buffer fund for those
let go due to overcapacity cuts, it may
also reflect policymakers’ optimism
about the likely levels of unemployment
resulting from economic transition.
Damien Ma, a fellow at the Paulson
Institute, said that among top policy-
makers, there was “a sincere sense that
they do believe the services sector will
be the savior in absorbing unemploy-
ment.”
Ma said that while some had called
for a greater fiscal deficit to help cush-
ion the blow of shutting down overca-
pacity sectors, belief in the sustainabil-
ity of services sector growth had likely
convinced the center it didn’t need
China Economic Review | April 2016 19
COVER STORY
to dole out large sums of money for
layoffs that were ultimately far small-
er than those made in the late 1990’s
under then-premier Zhu Rongji.
Modesty: The best policy?Yet if services are to provide salva-
tion from rising unemployment, the
party is not anxious to divulge exactly
how. In fact, the 13th FYP doesn’t even
include a section on the role of services
in the economy, in stark contrast to the
emphasis of the 12th FYP.
“I think this is kind of a systematic
blind spot in the plan. I must really say,
it surprises me,” Heilmann said, adding
that based on the lack of detail and a
relatively unambitious target of 65% for
services’ contribution to GDP by 2020,
“the services sector is underpowered in
this plan. No doubt.”
The plan’s latest targets for lower-
ing emissions and pollution relative
to energy consumption are likewise
fairly modest, Ma noted, which was
par for the course thanks to previous
plans’ reduction targets having already
snapped up most of the low-hanging
fruit.
“If you’ve been tracking this for the
last few years, this should not have been
a surprise,” he said, pointing instead to
more ambitious goals for development
of green finance and green technology,
in addition to more integrated planning
on economic growth and the environ-
ment.
“I think that there’s less emphasis on
growth targets and more emphasis on
development in a more holistic sense,
which I find somewhat encouraging
compared to the previous plans,” Ma
said.
Caution breeds dangerWhen it comes to the most urgently
needed economic reforms, though,
the 13th FYP is far less ambitious. The
same relatively smaller cuts to heavy
industry’s workforce that aim to keep
unemployment down keep expenses at
the often state-owned firms employing
them up.
Meanwhile, state-owned firms look
likely to continue receiving state sup-
port even if unprofitable, with policy-
makers encouraging mergers instead of
allowing firms to go out of business.
“From the language of the NPC and
FYP, it seems their policy is to avoid
layoffs and bankruptcies at all costs,”
said Evans-Pritchard. “The prob-
lem with that is it’s sending a message
that they’re not really willing to accept
there’s a certain amount of pain that
comes with this restructuring.”
While he said Capital Economics
didn’t expect policymakers to run out
of ammo to shore up the economy in
the short run, the firm was far less opti-
mistic about China’s prospects beyond
the end of 2016.
“I think the trouble is the economy
still remains on a downward trajectory,”
he said. “Partly it’s structural, but there
is still, I think, the potential for China
to be growing faster than it is at the
moment if they remove some of these
structural barriers.”
While unprofitable state firms could
still be kept alive by rolling over loans
or other similar measures, locking up
resources just to keep them from col-
lapsing would be a serious drag on Chi-
na’s long-run potential growth.
Marie Diron, senior vice-president
for sovereign ratings at Moody’s, said
the firm was paying close attention to
how China planned to balance the three
objectives of supporting growth, push-
ing forward with reform, and main-
taining economic, financial and social
stability—and whether it could.
“In the plan, if we can summarize
it very succinctly, the emphasis is very
much on growth and stability, possibly
at the expense of reforms, or at least the
reforms that could jeopardize its growth
and stability objectives,” Diron said.
From a sovereign risk perspective
that suggested supportive growth policy
in the years ahead, she said, leading to
a further increase in leverage, one of
China Economic Review | April 201620
COVER STORY
the key drivers of risk that had led to
Moody’s to recently downgrade China’s
debt rating to negative.
With great power…Perhaps the most surprising change in
the 13th FYP comes in the final chapter
on implementation, where the lead-
ership role of the party - specifically
the Leading Group for Financial and
Economic Affairs, led by Xi Jinping - is
emphasized.
It’s a substantial change from pre-
vious plans, whose implementation
was overseen chiefly by the National
Development and Reform Commission,
nominally on behalf of the state, rather
than the party.
It’s yet another move that further
centralizes power under Xi—but it also
concentrates still more responsibility
to deliver on the plan’s binding targets,
as well as to ensure the targeted growth
rate on which they depend.
Yet China’s economy may be get-
ting too unruly for even the new FYP
system. Heilmann even went as far
as to suggest the 13th plan might be
China’s last, should target figures’ tra-
jectories begin falling wide enough of
their marks—though the optics of that
transition could be spun as an eco-
nomic triumph if the party proves deft
enough.
“The trick that they could still pull
is to say they [have been] successful in
realizing the decisive role of markets
and competition. Then the five-year
plans are not as necessary anymore,”
he said.
For now, at least, the planning sys-
tem is quite intact, and gearing up for
the issuance of more detailed imple-
mentation plans from countless par-
ty-state organs; the contradictions at
the heart of many policy goals remain
serious, and with so much power now
gathered in his hands, Xi is under pres-
sure to deliver on his policy promises as
well as those of his predecessors.
Whether Xi can deliver 6.5% GDP
growth is far from certain, and whether
he could own up to falling short of that
goal is even less so. As his diminished
counterpart, Premier Li Keqiang, told
reporters at the close of the NPC: “it
would be impossible for me” to say
China might fall short of its growth tar-
get.
Truer words were rarely spoken.
China Economic Review | April 2016 21
In March, in the face of protests
from opposition lawmakers,
Hong Kong’s Legislative Coun-
cil approved additional funding of
HK$19.6 billion (US$2.52 billion) for
an already over-budget high-speed rail
link to the mainland cities of Shenzhen
and Guangzhou.
The new funding round pushed
the project’s cost way above an orig-
inal estimated budget of US$8.3 bil-
lion, and some lawmakers and citizen
groups have called for the project to be
scrapped due to the ballooning budget
and possible border control complica-
tions. A document from the Transport
and Housing Bureau also cut forecasts
of the rail’s economic return from 6%
to 4%. But the territory’s government
said in December that abandoning the
project would entail a loss of US$9.7
billion.
That some people in Hong Kong
still want the territory to cut its losses
partly reflects just how deep ambiva-
lence toward greater integration with
the mainland runs. But there may be no
other option.
Since the onset of global financial
crisis in 2007, the Pearl River Delta has
been scrambling to better integrate and
restructure its economy away from
low-end, export-dependent manu-
facturing—with mixed results. The
region’s top-tier cities have leveraged
their administrative advantages to move
toward higher tech and services, but a
lack of regional planning has left other
cities in what is now the world’s largest
urban corridor locked into the old and
Delta forces
increasingly untenable model, fighting
for low-margin scraps and lacking in
skilled human capital.
Meanwhile, the region’s onetime
one-stop global hub for all things
China, Hong Kong, faces a crisis of
identity as competition from mainland
cities in key sectors like logistics and
tech development grows, calling into
question the economic role and politi-
cal autonomy of the special autono-
mous region as it is drawn ever closer
into the mainland’s orbit.
As central and provincial govern-
ment officials deploy all manner of car-
rots and sticks to corral regional actors
toward some form of more sustainable
development, the differing and often
conflicting motivations driving the
megacity’s urban centers may make
Hong Kong’s future increasingly depends on the megacity across the border
ECONOMY
China Economic Review | April 201630
them unruly to move forward on any-
thing but their own terms. But the clock
is already ticking on how long the delta
can hold out.
“There is intense competition from
nearby countries like Thailand, Malay-
sia and Indonesia, which have a similar
industrial structure and export struc-
ture,” said Xu Jiang, associate profes-
sor at the Chinese University of Hong
Kong’s Department of Geography and
Resource Management and president of
the Hong Kong Geographical Society,
whose research focuses on the delta’s
development. “The Pearl River Delta
cannot rely on low-end manufacturing
anymore.”
Victim of successFrom the 1980s to early 2000s, the
Pearl River Delta embraced a low-end,
export-driven manufacturing model of
economic growth facilitated by sup-
portive government policy and a mas-
sive influx of foreign capital.
The risks inherent in that model
became apparent with the onset of the
global financial crisis in 2007, which
served as a wake-up call for govern-
ment officials and business interests in
the region. By 2008, policymakers were
pushing an agenda of economic restruc-
turing, with top-tier cities leading the
way toward high-value manufacturing
and services sectors.
Since the crisis, Guangzhou has
become a services hub for the region,
while Shenzhen, situated across the
border from Hong Kong and long a
dynamo of entrepreneurial ambition,
has developed into the start-up capi-
tal of China’s tech sector. Hong Kong
remains, for now, the region’s financial
lynchpin. But these are exceptions.
By and large, though, the Pearl River
Delta has become a victim of its own
success: Most cities are locked into an
old economic growth model, facing
diminishing returns as their factories
compete for already-slim profit margins
with near-identical competitors next
door.
This lock-in has been fostered by
three decades of devolution in which
economic decision-making power grew
increasingly concentrated at the munic-
ipal level throughout China. Short-term
obsession with the profits closest at
hand continues to be spurred on by
local officials who rely on small factories
for tax revenue and to meet official eco-
nomic growth goals.
But even as officials chase promo-
tions, they, too, can recognize that the
flaws of the old model are glaring: It is
increasingly expensive, produces heavy
pollution, is incredibly inefficient, pro-
vides low differentiation, and lacks the
necessary coordination to allow for
more productive specialization.
Power in politicsThe central government isn’t entirely
powerless in the face of freewheeling
metropolitan economies, though. Since
2000, high-capital projects have become
increasingly important to the Pearl
ECONOMY
China Economic Review | April 2016 31
River delta’s economy relative to
overseas funding, Xu said. She noted
that these often need central govern-
ment approval, putting a fair bit of poli-
cymaking power back in Beijing’s hands.
The central government also retains
control over appointment of leaders in
cities like Shenzhen and approval for
key policy and administrative changes.
Since 2008, Guangdong’s provincial
government has been working with the
central government to use that poli-
cymaking leverage to push forward a
“double shift” in the region’s economy:
1. The delta’s core area shifts away
from low-end, labor-intensive, pol-
luting industries to favor sectors with
higher returns on investment;
2. The core’s labor pool shifts from
migrants to high-value workers.
But the central government has nat-
urally favored top-tier cities of Guang-
dong and Shenzhen where it has more
influence on policymakers’ decisions.
This has resulted in state and foreign
funding being funneled to these “sub-
provincial” level cities as safest options
for all involved.
Roads to the capitalStymied by economics, policymakers
are increasingly trying to tie Pearl River
Delta cities’ transportation systems
together—low-hanging fruit in terms of
regional integration.
“When talking about regional plans,
that’s one of the easier places to start
because in general it’s less controver-
sial,” said Daniel Hedglin, an urban
planner and co-founder of the China
Urban Development Blog.
Hedglin said the large and highly-
concentrated population distributed
among numerous cities – which grew
together as outlying factory zones
pulled them into countryside – make
the delta a natural target for region-
al governance. In lieu of established
regional governance system, infrastruc-
ture can also act as important first step
in building inter-city trust.
Xu noted that if the Pearl River Delta
truly hopes to achieve economic great-
ness, it will need networks both local
and global to get there. “If you look
at world history, all the great cities are
supported by vast transportation arter-
ies connecting their vital commercial
organs with the outside world.” While
she warned that few believe infra-
structure actually guarantees growth,
Xu added that “without infrastructure
you’re definitely a loser.”
But for the only truly cosmopolitan
city in the delta, growing interconnect-
edness with the rest of the region pro-
vokes deep unease.
Hard to portThere may not be anything inherent-
ly malevolent about the Hong Kong-
Guangdong High Speed Rail project.
But while its growing price tag might
be reason enough to complain, the local
backlash goes beyond pure economics.
“I do feel like the more relationships
there are in different areas, the more
that [Hong Kong’s] sense of independ-
ence may be threatened,” said Hedglin.
The fact that the pro-Beijing top
politician in Hong Kong, C.Y. Leung,
has proven to be the least popular chief
executive in the territory’s history is
likely not helping.
The Umbrella Movement of 2014
has been cast by some observers as a
rejection of Leung’s (and by extension,
Beijing’s) “economics only” approach
to political reform. State media have
framed local outrage at denial of full
universal suffrage in favor of an elec-
tion only among Party-approved chief
executive candidates as unnecessarily
politicizing governance.
Yet for all the benefits brought on by
business ties to the rest of the river delta,
Hong Kong’s economic success is like-
wise inextricably tied the foundational
governance feature that most differenti-
ates it from the mainland: Rule of law.
Xiangming Chen, founding dean and
director of the Center for Urban and
Global Studies at Trinity College, said
that while Hong Kong may never again
be the sole gateway to China for the
world, it still has “irreplaceable advan-
tages in terms of financial strengths.”
“Economic autonomy,” Chen said,
“will continue to differentiate it from
any other top-tier mainland city in
terms of being a financial hub.” After
all, for mainland firms serious about
going public, the stock exchange of
choice is still in Hong Kong, not Shang-
hai or Shenzhen.
But that also increases Hong Kong’s
dependence on China’s economy, as
reflected by the March 12 downgrading
ECONOMY
China Economic Review | April 201632
of the territory’s long-term debt and
issuer ratings from “stable” to “nega-
tive” by ratings agency Moody’s. The
firm cited risks to China’s economic
stability and growing political links
weighing on Hong Kong’s institutional
strength as the basis for revising its rat-
ing of the territory’s financial outlook—
which came just three days after the rat-
ings agency downgraded its outlook on
China’s government debt to “negative”.
Yet Hong Kong’s other econom-
ic roles are being usurped as well:
Guangzhou now has its own deepwater
port and a thriving business services
sector, while Shenzhen is becoming a
booming center for tech R&D as well as
home to the mainland’s online services
conglomerates.
And the disappearance of five book-
sellers connected to a Hong Kong pub-
lishing house notorious for putting
out salacious political tell-alls – and
the equally suspicious circumstances
around their reappearance on the main-
land, apparently assisting with a crimi-
nal investigation – beg the question of
how long Hong Kong’s autonomy, and
thus the foundation for its biggest busi-
ness advantages, can really last.
Questions unansweredHowever, as the relationship between
Hong Kong and the rest of the delta
develops, transition is likely unavoid-
able, notes Chen: “No city will monopo-
lize a unique set of functions forever,”
and neither Hong Kong nor its neigh-
bors across the border are any exception.
The provincial government slogan
“teng long huan niao” describes pol-
icymakers’ plans for the delta’s core:
“Loose the birds from their cage and
bring in new ones”.
Old industries are to be pushed to
the less-developed periphery in the
province’s northern and western reach-
es, and in recent years, Chen said, the
center of manufacturing gravity has
indeed shifted across the Xi River to
less-developed cities such as Jiangmen.
Yet when it comes to the region’s
most famous city, Xu said that differing
government objectives will remain a key
challenge to regional integration of the
Pearl River Delta: Where Guangdong
still prioritizes economic growth above
all, Hong Kong’s population is increas-
ingly concerned with environmental
and social issues.
ECONOMY
China Economic Review | April 2016 33
2016
2015 10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2009
3.1 3.1
-3.4
3.1
5.44.2
3.4 3.63.3 3.4
1.7 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.2
5.2
7.5%
6.3
5.0 4.64.0
4.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201600999
3 4
3.11.7 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.2
2010020100 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 2011620116
3..1 3 1
55.45.44.24.2
3.43.4 3 63.63.33.3 3 43.4
5.26.3
5.0 4.64.0
4.5
3 13.1
China Economic Review | April 201634
China’s economy grew at the
slowest rate in a quarter-cen-
tury last year by official meas-
ure, but that economic gloom couldn’t
dampen an unqualified box-office
boom: Annual ticket sales revenue rose
48.7% at mainland theaters in 2015 to a
record total of US$6.78 billion (RMB44
billion).
While 2014 saw China’s film indus-
try grow more industrial as moviegoers’
tastes filtered back to production studi-
os through an ever-expanding phalanx
of theaters, 2015 saw it double down on
a drive toward consumer-facing cine-
ma. Where ticket sales were once all the
feedback studios needed, online lit and
streaming series now provide edgier
film fodder. That has kicked efforts to
capitalize on intellectual property into
overdrive—one major consequence of
which is that Chinese firms are sud-
denly as eager as Hollywood studios to
exercise their copyrights.
“Copyright is now becoming a sword
in the hands of Chinese rights owners,”
said Mathew Alderson, partner at Harris
& Moure, PLLC and frequent contribu-
tor on Chinese copyright law for the
China Law Blog. “Chinese companies
are not going to spend a lot of money
acquiring rights from foreign sources
only to let Chinese pirates in the next
province free-ride on the investment.”
Offshore, but close to homeThat interest in IP is also reflected in
Chinese films’ growing dominance of
the domestic box office: Only three of
the top ten films from 2015 came from
US studios, down from five in 2014.
And while the top spot did go to
Box offi ce boom
Universal Pictures’ “Furious 7” with a
box-office take of US$390.9 million,
the Hong Kong-China co-production
“Monster Hunt” was only about US$9
million behind. Figures from the State
Administration of Press, Publication,
Radio, Film and Television (SARFT)
likewise showed Hollywood movies’
share of annual mainland box-office
revenue fell to 38.4% in 2015, down
from 45.5% the year prior.
Movies l ike “Monster Hunt”
embody two trends highlighted by
Michael Keane, professor of Chinese
media at Curtin University: The grow-
ing popularity of action comedies that
appeal to younger audiences and con-
tinued collaborations between Hong
Kong and China. Such co-productions
allow mainland investors to funnel
funds to Hong Kong studios which can
take advantage of less stringent content
controls and local directors willing to
work on movies that could see a main-
land release, even if they couldn’t get
made there.
The record revenue generated by
“Monster Hunt” has since been thrown
into question, with accusations of
late-run box-office inflation eventu-
ally substantiated by a mea culpa from
the film’s distributor. But much of that
revenue was real, and the potential of
action-comedy co-productions was
demonstrated again with even greater
gusto by the success of “The Mermaid”
in 2016.
The co-produced action-comedy
flick recently became the first in main-
2015: The year China’s fi lm industry doubled down on IP
ECONOMY
China Economic Review | April 201636
land box-office history to pass the
RMB3 billion mark, setting an all-time
record—dethroning “Furious 7” and
even doing decent business during a
limited release in the States, much to
Hollywood’s chagrin.
Clampdown coming?The allegations of box office fraud that
dogged “Monster Hunt” appear to have
prompted regulators to enact new ticket
sales rules and even agree to let Hol-
lywood studios audit Chinese box office
receipts, according to The Hollywood
Reporter. The draft text for China’s new
Film Industry Promotion Law, made
public in November, would also pro-
vide more box office regulation, but it
doesn’t stop there.
While it fails to open up film pro-
duction and distribution to foreign
firms or lift the onerous quota system
for foreign films, Alderson noted that
the draft law “would definitely stream-
line the official co-production process
for foreign producers.” He added the
draft law also gave express official recog-
nition of the need for improvements in
the system of film finance and the need
for tax incentives for local producers.
Barring major changes before it’s
passed – always a possibility – the new
law would encourage financial institu-
tions to provide financing and other
services to facilitate the growth of Chi-
na’s film industry, including recom-
mending pledge services for film-related
intellectual property.
Such high-level government recogni-
tion of intellectual property’s impor-
tance reflects IP’s newly elevated status
in China. The recently-launched indus-
try news site China Film Insider even
deemed it “the industry buzzword of
2015.” With good reason.
Ecosystems evolvingAll the buzz makes sense in light of the
fact that some of last year’s top per-
formers at the box office had roots in
shows or sketches that streamed exclu-
sively online, a development Alderson
said was reflective of deeper changes in
audience interest and industry funding.
“We are seeing domestic motion pic-
tures emerging rapidly out of so-called
online literature,” Alderson said, refer-
ring to China’s vibrant online commu-
nities focused on writing and video pro-
duction. Indeed, China’s submission to
the 2016 Academy Awards, “Go Away,
Mr. Tumor”, originated as an online
comic strip.
The film was also co-produced by
Wanda Pictures, a unit of mainland
conglomerate Wanda Group. While the
firm’s recent acquisition of Legendary
Entertainment made waves, Wanda
has also invested in the Beijing comedy
theater Happy Donut as an incubator
which has since become a film produc-
tion unit that turns out low-budget
comedies.
Along with Tencent and Alibaba,
Wanda is shooting to become a con-
tent production house that sidesteps
the old model and responds more to
consumer trends. While Keane warned
that further restrictions on online
content could curtail up-and-coming
online sources of new IP, it was too
soon to say what approach regulators
would take.
He added that it was easy to imag-
ine China’s streaming sites (LeTV and
Youku Tudou) and content producers
(Tencent, Alibaba, Wanda) ultimately
converging on an industry model in
which the respective content ecosystems
of major players vie for user eyeballs—
as is already the case in the US with
Netflix and Amazon.
Even then it’s possible that crowd-
funding could disrupt the film indus-
try’s current trajectory, as it has once
already: “Monkey King: Hero is Back”
wouldn’t have made it through the final
stages of production without a vital
boost via crowdfunding, much of it
from parents who pitched in to get their
children’s names in the movie’s cred-
its. After flirting with nonexistence, the
animated feature went on to snag the
tenth-place spot on last year’s list of top
box-office hits in China.
“Crowdfunding is the question on
people’s lips,” Keane said. The model
remains largely unregulated in China –
always a potential pitfall for any media
enterprise. But he said it real, untapped
potential that could ruffle not a few
industry feathers. “If it can be better
regulated,” he said, “it could have a
major impact.”
That is as big an “if” as one is like to
encounter in the mainland film indus-
try. But if funding follows suit with Chi-
nese cinema’s increasingly consumer-
facing content, it may prove not a ques-
tion of “if”, but “when”.
ECONOMY
China Economic Review | April 2016 37
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3
2
1
02012
0.30.4
0.60.9
1.2
1.5
1.9
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e
%
%
2.5%
56.4% 54.2% 45.7% 38.5% 28.4% 27.4% 28.2%
3.7% 5.4% 8.6% 11.7% 15.1% 19.4%
China Economic Review | April 2016 41
TAKING TAKEOUT INTO THE 21ST CENTURYBy 2004, the Internet had already
revolutionized the way consumers bought
music, asked questions, and communicated
with one another. But ordering food was
another story: most customers still used paper
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ordering, their sites were often clunky and
inconsistent.
Hungry and overworked one evening, then-
software engineer Matt Maloney, ’10, and a
colleague dreamed up the idea: an easy-to-use
online ordering site with abundant nearby
options to choose from. They got started right
away, collecting menus from local restaurants
and trying to sell the idea to them in a way that
worked for both parties.
But how far could he take this promising
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we weren’t building a business.”
Using the analytical frameworks of The Chicago
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developed a two-sided data model to both
persuade skeptical restaurant owners to buy in
and encourage consumers to place their orders
on their laptops and phones instead of the old-
fashioned way. The idea, dubbed GrubHub, won
first place in Chicago Booth’s Edward L. Kaplan,
’71, New Venture Challenge in 2006. Less than
a decade later, Maloney, as CEO, led GrubHub
through an IPO.
The company now represents 35,000 takeout
restaurants in more than 900 US cities and
London, and is on track to report a 2015 net
revenue well over $350 million—success that
Maloney can trace back to the New Venture
Challenge and The Chicago Approach.
“Chicago Booth showed me how to
build a business.”
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BUSINESS EDUCATION FOCUS
Melding two schools of thought
MBA program offers students
global experiences through
classes in Shanghai and
Oslo.
Since its establishment in 1996, the
BI-Fudan MBA Program, organized by
Fudan University’s School of Manage-
ment and the BI Norwegian Business
School, has cultivated more than 2,000
Chinese and foreign professionals.
This year, the program celebrates its
20th anniversary in China.
“During the past 20 years, our stu-
dents’ aspirations have been dynamic
and in parallel with global economic
developments,” said Benedicte Brogger,
associate dean of the BI-Fudan MBA
Program.
“Today, our most popular electives
are courses that teach our MBA stu-
dents how to work with ideas, wealth
management and innovation.”
The part-time program, which lasts
two years, has most of its classes taught
in Shanghai, though part of the pro-
gram is also taught in Norway. The pro-
gram also focuses on offering students a
more international and innovative way
of thinking.
The program was ranked sixth by the
Financial Times among the world’s top
part-time MBA programs.
The best of both
One of the goals for the English-taught
program is to teach students about
capitalizing on different business cul-
tures and making their own competitive
advantages.
The program invites both interna-
tional and Fudan professors to share
their expertise, while students share
their experiences with their peers to
learn from each other.
The administrators of the program
spend a great deal of time planning the
classes because they are combining a
wide breadth of experiences from vari-
ous industries and disciplines.
According to a survey by the pro-
gram’s administration, the program’s
combination of Chinese and Nordic
business cultures is greatly valued by the
students.
The program is the most com-
prehensive academic collaboration
between Norway and China and serves
as an important bridge between the two
countries. For over 20 years, the pro-
gram has helped MBA students become
successful in their international careers.
Improving capabilities
Over 90 percent of BI-Fudan MBA
students work for large multination-
al businesses, and many Fortune 500
companies have sent employees to this
program.
Three years after graduation, stu-
dents see, on average, an 83-percent
salary increase.
They come from a variety of indus-
tries and disciplines, but those from the
healthcare, IT and the automotive sec-
tors are highly represented.
“The students struggle with some
of the same problems. Working in a
2000professionals
have graduated from the BI-Fudan MBA Program
China Economic Review | April 201650
BUSINESS EDUCATION FOCUS
multinational company, and exceeding
their international managers’ expecta-
tions by leading a group of people from
various nations is challenging,” said Xu
Huizhong, executive director of the BI-
Fudan MBA Program.
“In our program they come together
and share their experiences and solve
problems they meet together.”
When asked why they chose to
attend the program, 93.7 percent of
the students in this year’s class said
“improving management capabilities”
is their top priority.
“This program is about acquiring
the right business skills, collaborating in
groups and improving our knowledge,”
said a student from the program.
“It also gives us friends for life. It’s
not that the network is not important,
it’s just that sharing your experience
with peers and learning from each other
is the best way to make friends for life.”
Truly international
It is not just the location of the class-
rooms that make for an invaluable
international experience. It is also the
program’s mix of faculty.
More than 75 percent of the faculty
comes from European countries such as
Spain, Germany, the Netherlands and
Norway.
Both schools are committed to allo-
cating the best professors for the pro-
gram. Most of the Fudan and BI profes-
sors have been teaching in the program
for more than 10 years.
Active alumni network
The program has its own alumni organ-
ization called Join & Share, which cel-
ebrated its 10th anniversary last year.
It provides the alumni with both
social and academic events, and
includes several different clubs and sub-
groups based on the students’ interests.
There are over 2,000 alumni from the
MBA program, many of whom have
gone on to top business careers.
One of the most active groups is
the IT-club, which organizes meetings
about information technology. More
relaxing, and certainly more social, is
the wine club. Students can join and
share their love of French, Italian or
even the increasingly famous Shandong
wine.
Entrepreneurial spirit
The Nordic Hub Partnership, BIFu-
dan MBA’s partnership program with
Nordic companies in Shanghai, seeks to
strengthen the interaction among stu-
dents, businesses and the program’s fac-
ulty. Most of the students seek to boost
their careers within the companies they
currently work for. Through the entre-
preneurial network, students interested
in startups can find a network of like-
minded individuals.
Moving ahead
The strong relationship between Fudan
University School of Management and
the BI Norwegian Business School will
continue to develop as they work to
educate the top Chinese and foreign
business professionals.
The need for such education will
increase as China’s economy continues
to rely more and more on innovative
companies with new technologies and
challenges.
The need for business people with
an international capability to lead and
manage global teams from all over
the world will grow stronger as more
and more Chinese companies venture
abroad.
90Percent
of BI-Fudan MBA students work for large multinationals
China Economic Review | April 2016 51
BUSINESS EDUCATION FOCUS
The relevance of giving multidisciplinary and practical tools
Entrepreneurship and Leadership Trends at EU
Entrepreneurship & EU
With the business paradigm shifting
due to technological advances, entre-
preneurship is becoming a widespread
necessity. Individuals, especially the
young, are presented with opportu-
nities, and as such, there is a call for
additional awareness and training.
According to the International Labour
Organization (ILO), in order to meet
the demands of the generation joining
the labor market in upcoming years,
there is a need to create more than 300
million new jobs by 2020. The crea-
tion of jobs that contribute to sustain-
able and inclusive growth are of utmost
importance. Analysts also believe that
growth in the EU region relies heavily
on entrepreneurship and new venture
creation.
Instigating and fostering an entre-
preneurial spirit is an essential goal at
EU Business School. In order to catalyze
economic and entrepreneurial activ-
ity, current and future students need
to be trained and prepared. At EU, we
provide an environment and a focus to
cultivate both entrepreneurship and the
spirit that goes with it.
Candidates for the EU Entrepre-
neurship MBA course are given practi-
cal tools to help them create their own
businesses. Professors have a broad
range of experience to help entre-
preneurs with topics that range from
R&D and New Product Development
to human resources and leadership.
EU helps students identify business
opportunities and write effective busi-
ness plans, and provides them with the
know-how to develop new products.
This enables students to understand the
necessary elements of getting something
off the ground.
Focus is not limited to the specific
Entrepreneurship and New Venture
Creation courses that are part of the
EU MBA in Entrepreneurship program;
other options which help students to
broaden their knowledge and give them
a good platform to start their own busi-
ness include Innovation and Leader-
ship, and Technology and Change
Management. We believe in looking at
the bigger picture, which is an integral
factor to success in business.
Sharing the Multidisciplinary
Approach
Cross-discipline support for entrepre-
neurship and intrapreneurship is essen-
tial. Many large companies implement
intrapreneurial activities by divesting
authority down the organization and
initiating small projects with shorter life
cycles. Young people new to the work-
place need, therefore, to have a wider
understanding of how a business works
and know-how to manage the risk asso-
ciated with this. Students leaving EU
with an MBA will have the academic
background – and more important-
China Economic Review | April 201652
BUSINESS EDUCATION FOCUS
ly, will have developed the pragmatic
approach – necessary to deal with top-
ics related to entrepreneurship and an
understanding of how intrapreneurship
will work.
New Media & SMEs
The Internet has changed the rules of
the game. New technologies associ-
ated with the Internet are revolution-
izing the way entrepreneurs work. The
Internet is compelling for new busi-
nesses because entrepreneurs can make
their own rules. The Kauffman Index
of Entrepreneurial Activity (2015) has
shown that the rate of entrepreneur-
ship is once again increasing after a
downward trend that began in 2010.
There has also been a small consistent
rise in the percentage of graduates who
start their own companies.
Evidence suggests that SMEs have
made the biggest positive contribution
to developing economies, highlight-
ing their importance. Over the last 25
years, many successful countries have
been built in the dynamic SME sector.
Many firms of the future will outgrow
the SME size and expand to become
global companies. How we prepare
younger generations for entrepreneur-
ship is going to be intrinsic to their
success.
EU Offers Something for Everyone
While EU provides the perfect breed-
ing group for entrepreneurs, it is also
renowned for its MBA programs for
students who want international expe-
rience and to launch their careers into
the global market. Today’s employers
are on the lookout for MBA candidates
who have international exposure and
can succeed in the global English-speak-
ing business world.
EU has been providing an inter-
national business education in Eng-
lish for over 40 years and has four
campuses located in four of Europe’s
most influential business hubs: Barce-
lona, Munich, Geneva and Montreux.
The Master of Business Administra-
tion (MBA), Online Master of Busi-
ness Administration (Online MBA)
and Executive Master of Business
Administration (EMBA) degrees from
EU Business School are internationally
recognized qualifications that serve as
passports to successful management
careers. Participants can specialize in
International Business; Communica-
tion & Public Relations; International
Marketing; Global Banking & Finance;
Leisure and Tourism Management;
Entrepreneurship; Leadership; E-Busi-
ness; Sports Management; Human
Resources Management; Reputation
Management; or Design Management.
The programs last one year, full-time
or two years, part-time.The various
degree specializations are designed to
accommodate the needs of each indi-
vidual MBA candidate.
EU’s Online MBA ranked number
one once again in CEO Magazine’s 2016
global online rankings. EU’s on-cam-
pus MBA and the EU Executive MBA
held on to their positions as top tier in
Europe and top tier globally, respec-
tively. The QS Top MBA list has placed
EU in the Top 35 European Global
MBA programs out of a total of 200 top
business schools worldwide. EU pro-
grams are accredited by the Accredita-
tion Council for Business Schools and
Programs (ACBSP) which is recognized
by the Council for Higher Education
Accreditation (CHEA). It has also been
certified by EduQua, the first Swiss
quality label geared toward adult fur-
ther education. In addition, EU holds
an International Quality Accreditation
(IQA) awarded by the Central and East
European Management Development
Association (CEEMAN) and most
recently received accreditation from the
Chartered Management Institute (CMI).
EU also offers various exchange pro-
grams with some of the world’s most
prestigious universities. Their partner-
ship with the University of Roehamp-
ton gives students the chance to obtain
two accredited qualifications, one of
which is a U.K. state-recognized degree.
MBA students can complete two semes-
ters at Pace University in New York and
graduate with two qualifications from
two continents.
EU Business School’s pragmatic
approach to experiential business edu-
cation, and its use of the case-study
method have been proven to effectively
prepare students for leadership in the
international business world. Whether
a student chooses the path of entrepre-
neur or business leader, an EU MBA
offers an undeniable competitive edge
for a successful future in business.
China Economic Review | April 2016 53
LOOKING AT CHINA
The safe world of cartoonsBy Graham Earnshaw
Watching movies on a lap-
top screen lying in bed or
sitting on a sofa is fine in
terms of convenience but in terms of
the intensity of the experience, nothing
can beat sitting in a cinema, regardless
of the size of the screen. And China’s
blooming middle-class clearly agree
with me.
On any weekend afternoon, the
number of people sitting in dark rooms
wearing funny glasses must number
many millions. This is good for business
and good for social stability. I person-
ally don’t like wearing 3-D glasses so
much, and I find that watching a movie
in 2-D is just as good because it is the
plot, the characters and the laughs that
I find most interesting. But in all cases,
it is the cinema experience which wins.
How big if China’s middle class?
Who knows? It is pretty irrelevant.
Regardless of whatever income pre-
conditions are set, it seems to me that
the mentality of middle-classness is fast
becoming a fixed element of Chinese
society. And a part of being middle-
class anywhere in the world is going to
the movies. The amount of money the
Chinese box office is bringing in his
very quickly closing in on the United
States total and it is obviously only a
matter of time for the China box office
to exceeds that of the US, a perfectly
reasonable prediction given the fact that
China has three times as many people,
and they have at least as much in need
of a break from reality as Americans.
The question is, what do they want
to watch. With the added question,
what are we going to let them watch.
For just about everyone, including the
movie studios themselves, the easiest
choice is cartoons followed by science
fiction futuristic adventures like Star
Wars, Guardians of the Galaxy, Bat-
man, Avengers, Transformers etc etc. In
all these cases, reality is far away. I am
not sure it is a healthy trend, but it sure
is profitable.
So China has the box office power
and we can see the impact of that clearly
in terms of the way Hollywood is racing
to realign itself with the Chinese oppor-
tunity. In terms of content production,
however, there is still a gap and it could
be quite a while before the gap disap-
pears.
An example is the latest Kung Fu
Panda movie. This is the third itera-
tion of the story, and also the first of
the series which is a co-production
between Hollywood and China. The
story and execution are least as good as
the other two, and the ending is love-
ly. It is impossible to know precisely
what elements of film were contributed
by the China side of the coproduction
team and what was contributed by Hol-
lywood, but my guess, alas, is that most
of the elements that stick in the mind,
the little touches of humor, the cute
plot twists that stand out, where almost
exclusively from the American side. I
hope I’m wrong.
That will change. It’s just a matter
of time, again of course. Chinese peo-
ple, with the independence of mentality
that comes with obtaining middle-class-
ness, have their own requirements and
cultural underpinnings which will lead
to a need for entertainment which is
specific to the China market. There will
always be a market for the big Holly-
wood movies, too, because Hollywood
has proven itself over and over again
to have a unique ability to create enter-
tainment that works around the world,
in all cultures.
The challenge for the creative indus-
try in China is first and foremost to
create products of equivalent quality
to Hollywood which are uniquely Chi-
nese and will resonate and last in the
China cultural world in the way that
great Hollywood movies do. The chal-
lenge beyond that is to create content
and product which will resonate beyond
the China world. Will it happen? Abso-
lutely. Timing uncertain, but my guess
is that within 20 years we will see some-
thing close to that situation.
China Economic Review | April 201662
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Business Schools
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China Economic Review | April 201664
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China Economic Review | April 2016 65
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Huangpu District
One Corporate Avenue
15/F, One Corporate Avenue,
No.222 Hubin Road,
Huangpu District
Bund Centre
18/F, Bund Centre, No.222 East
Yan’an Road, Huangpu District
Raffles City
51/F, Raffles City, No.268 Middle
Xizang Road, Huangpu District
The Headquarters
25/F, The Headquarters Building,
No.168 Middle Xizang Road,
Huangpu District
Hong Kong Plaza
26/F, Hong Kong Plaza, No.283
Middle Huai Hai Road,
Huangpu District
Silver Court
3/F, Silver Court Office Tower,
No.85 Taoyuan Road,
Huangpu District
Shanghai Tower [Coming Soon]
29/F, Shanghai Tower, Dongtai
Road, Pudong, Lujiazui
Jin Mao Tower
31/F, Jin Mao Tower, No.88 Shiji
Avenue, Pudong, Lujiazui
21st Century
6/F, The 21st Century Tower,
No.210 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,
Lujiazui
Aurora Plaza
11/F, Aurora Plaza, No.99
Fucheng Road, Pudong, Lujiazui
Standard Chartered Lujiazui
5/F, Standard Chartered Tower,
No.201 Shiji Avenue, Pudong,
Lujiazui
BEA Finance Tower
15/F, BEA Finance Tower, No.66
Hua Yuan Shi Qiao Road, Pudong,
Lujiazui
Plaza 66
15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66, No.1266
West Nanjing Road,
Jing’an District
LISTING
To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our
representatives at:
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +86 21 53859061
2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021
138 2205 200021
China Economic Review | April 201666
FOR ENQUIRIES, CONTACT:Tel: +86 21 5385 9061 Email: [email protected]
China Foreign Enterprise Directory 17th Edition 2015 CD-ROM
China Foreign Enterprise Directory (FED) is the most authoritative directory of all top multinational companies and foreign firms operating in the China market. The Directory is published once every year. All listings are updated daily ahead of printing, to ensure that the information is always up-to-date.
The China Foreign Enterprise Directory 17th Edition 2015 CD-ROM* version provides fast and flexible methods for searching for companies. It includes all the data in the print version and more. This CD-ROM is a powerful research and marketing tool to help you succeed in your marketing campaigns in China.
The CD-ROM version contains:
• More than 7,400 companies
• More than 16,400 offices
• More than 13,300 contacts
• More than 8,500 emails
PRICINGCD-ROM: US$400/RMB2,800
SinoMedia Best Sellers1. China Enterprise Directory2. China Business Guide3. China Enterprise Directory 4. Top Global 500 Companies in China Directory5. China Financial Services Directory CD-ROM
CD-ROM powerful features:
• Print mail labels
• Export Email: All emails can be exported into an Excel spreadsheet, you can
send your marketing information to all listed emails
• Hyperlinks: Link via the Internet to the websites of listed companies
• Memo: Users can enter their own notes
• FULL SEARCH CRITERIA:
• Industry - Search companies by 60 major industry
categories
• Location - Find companies located in all parts of China
• Company Name - Find the contact information of
specific companies
• Nationality - Search companies by their HQ locations
• Job Title - Find the key executives you are looking for
• Memo - Track the record you entered in the CD
database
*CD-ROM is available only for Windows operating systems