Can Japan do it?

A 20 paged presentation

Tomohiko Taniguchi / USJI Week / Sep. 5, 2012

At a tipping point

A country on the wane

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Three bullet points

� Japan is no longer the country you think you have known for many years: All trend lines downward

� The resultant long-term uncertainties plus 311 PTSD have left little room to see the evolution of their strategic environment and the rationale for furthering the U.S.-Japan alliance

� Domestic politics, in confusion yet to respond to a "new normal," is soon to see more turbulence: whether any kind of core, durable leadership will emerge is an open-ended question

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One minor point and

what ought to be done

� The three bullet points indicate that Japan is clearly at a real tipping point (cf. Armitage & Nye)

� As if to take advantage of Japan's weakening, Beijing, Seoul and Moscow are all "poking" Tokyo in regard to territorial disputes.

� In the age of US re-balancing toward the Asia Indo-Pacific region, a weak Japan hinders alliance

� What ought to be done now?

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Macro Trend-lines

Some familiar pictures

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Economic Prowess?

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Where have the savers gone?

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Germany

Japan

United States

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A familiar picture

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Germany

Greece

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To be surpassed soon by India?

� Japan has failed to increase its defense expenditure

� India, South Korea, and Australia: upward trend

• Figures are in US $m., at constant 2010 prices and exchange rates, SIPRI

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Where the country is

Domestic Politics and Strategic Environment

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National psyche, 2012

� Long term

� Lingering sense of malaise and directionlessness

� Sense of insecurity & uncertainty

� Those under 35 have known no growth

� Gung-ho spirit gone

� Short term

� 311 PTSD

� Tokyo: Resurgence of angered baby-boomers

� Osaka: Hero worship

� As a whole: Minimum tolerance for nuclear, or something akin to it, even including Osprey

Little room for envisaging big picture:US continued patience highly admirable

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Don't take them lightly

� Baby-boomers, now with much time to kill, have remembered the genes they developed in 1968.

� Kenzaburo Oe and Ryuichi Sakamoto ganging up together to form a left-wing coalition

� Their anti nuclear-power rallies have created a new reality, a force to be reckoned with

� The Oe-led "Article 9 Association" will likely merge with the anti-nuclear-power groups

� Resurgence of the 1960s-styled anti-Americanism, married with Post-Fukushima "Little Japan-ism"

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Big Picture:

Strategic Environment

� For the first time in history, Japan's strategic space challenged by its neighbors to a suffocating degree

• Senkakus: to lose them is to lose the China Seas, East and South

• Japan archipelago entirely covered by Chinese strategic arsenal

• Japan sea, while the name itself contested, is to be congested by unfriendly naval vessels, from China, Russia and even from Korea

• The Pacific island nations within the "second island chain" increasingly under the Beijing's influence

• It is a national-security crisis that is in the making

Still, US "re-balancing" to counter all of the above has so far failed to provoke public discourse and gain support

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Territorial disputes

� To repeat: Why the Senkakus matter?• Not so much to do with "right wing" nationalism as with freedom of navigation and securing Japan's strategic space

• Nothing to do with economy, little to do with resources but everything to do with geo-politics

• China with the Senkakus would control the waves in both East and South China seas

• Japan must stand tall also for the maritime ASEAN' sake

� The value of the northern territory discovered

� A few words on Japan's first-ever democratic neighbor immediately next door

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Yoshihiko Noda in perspective

� A rare, big-picture, conviction politician

� Already quite a big achiever• Effectively ousted Ozawa and Co.

• Tax hike law passed

• Ban on arms export loosened

• Defense focus shifted to the Okinawa region

• Even more big agendas: TPP; Declaration as a maritime democracy; proposal to forge Pacific Charter, a la Atlantic Charter

� Yet he can rely on few: Some trustworthy but week in operation; Others week in practicalities and shifty in ideas; Still others OK but willing to take few risks in handling party affairs.

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Roadblocks for alliance

� Osprey/Futemma: mutually reinforcing stalemate

� Failure particularly to let the Okinawans know of the value of their geographic location

� Political capital too limited to reactivate collective defense, key to multiply network effect even with Australia, Indonesia, etc., though Noda is keen on doing that as evinced by "Frontier report" that said:

• It is vital that Japan possesses certain security capabilities as a means for self-defence. Japan should deepen security cooperation with the United States and other countries that share common values and aim to establish a network among them. Also from the standpoint of enhancing security cooperation, it is essential to increase recognition of Japan as a valuable cooperation partner. Japan should strive to expand security cooperation channels by reviewing outdated institutions and practices, including the interpretation on the right of collective self-defense.

• (English summary at www.npu.go.jp/policy/policy04/pdf/20120706/en_hokoku_gaiyo1.pdf)

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The US is doing

everything possible

� Ambassador John Roos is almost Japan's self-appointed CCO, Chief Cheerleading Officer

� Tomodachi-related PD attempts still in full throttle

� U.S. forces, particularly the marines, have maintained most admirable patience

� Expert after expert visiting Tokyo to tell of the evolving strategic equation

� Is Japan up to the task?

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One can only hope...

� This fall, party realignment inevitable, anyhow

� An ideal scenario holds:

NodaAbeHashimoto

Tanigaki

Hatoyama

Left Behind In power

Questions: Whither Ozawa? Can Abe make a come back now, not later?

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Some policy suggestions

� Can there be a solution that enhances both the economic power of Japan and the alliance?

� For instance, Alaska-Hokkaido undersea gas pipeline ever unthinkable?

� Toyota and Honda should have another success story by developing natural gas cars

� All to benefit from a resurgent, shale-gas powered America. Japan deserves to be the first beneficiary

� Noda's "Churchillian" idea worthy of consideration

� Anything to develop our joint maritime identity

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Appendix: Japan's To-do list

1) Reactivate the right for collective self defense

2) Pronounce to enter TPP and do so ASAP

3) Spend more on JSDFs and the Coast Guard

4) Develop anti A2AD measures, by making bases like Kadena more resilient, and by deploying Seabuster missiles in the area

5) Strengthen Aussie-Japan-U.S. cooperation on island nations

6) Involve the U.K. and France as resident Pacific partners

7) Sell boats, etc., to ASEAN partners, build their human capacities

8) Regularize the bilat naval exercises with India

9) Seek more bilat visits overseas by PM and other top ministers

10) Learn from Korean experiences to build "Asan-like" institutes and to re-build "JEI-like" PD unit in D.C.

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