Assessing and Managing Social Risks Branda Nowell and Toddi Steelman

CA Fire Leadership MeetingSacramento, CAApril 4, 2014

Assessing and Managing Social Risks

Branda Nowell and Toddi Steelmannorth Carolina state universitybranda.nowell@ncsu.edu 919 513 1768 Toddi.steelman@usask.ca

Rising expectations about who will be involved in a complex wildfire incidentCohesive strategy goals Efficient and effective response to shared-jurisdiction wildfirePre-fire planning for multiple jurisdictions Metrics include pre-season agreements and annual operating plans, integrated wildfire response scenarios, and shared trainingMore holistic and system focus regarding both WHO we consider part of incident response and WHAT we consider as part of incident response

Social Risk Assessment and Management of Incident Networks

Fire management

Fire managementRoad Closures

Fire management

EvacuationsRoad Closures

Fire management

EvacuationsSheltering & Mass CareRoad Closures

Fire management

EvacuationsSheltering & Mass CarePublic InformationRoad Closures

Fire management

EvacuationsSheltering & Mass CarePublic InformationInteragency CommunicationsRoad Closures

Fire management

EvacuationsSheltering & Mass CarePublic InformationInteragency CommunicationsCost ShareRoad Closures

Fire management

EvacuationsSheltering & Mass CarePublic InformationInteragency CommunicationsCost SharePoliticiansRoad ClosuresType 1 and Type 2 WUI Fires ID, OR, WA, and MT (+ one pilot in CO)Total of 22 incidentsNetwork Performance scale (Nowell & Steelman, 2012)28 itemsInterview and observation data from three incidents: GC Complex (OR) , Elk (ID), and Beaver Creek (ID) fires

Incident Performance for Fire Season 2013:How did we do?2013 incident Performance by DomainLower PerformanceStrongest Performance1= strongly disagree3 = neither agree/disagree5 = strongly agreeWhole Network as part of Performance 36%13

Fire management

EvacuationsSheltering & Mass CarePublic InformationInteragency CommunicationsCost SharePoliticiansRoad ClosuresFunctional areas are interdependent with each other when things go wrong in one area of operations, it can have cascading effects on other areas14Relationships critical VARMore complex array of responders = greater riskHow do we understand and manage these relationships and these risks?

Social Risk Assessment and Management Within Incident Networks

Need tools to help gain better situational awareness and mental maps for assessing and managing social risk

How do we assess and manage greater social risk?

Mental Map: understanding incident response networks

A Brief Introduction to Social Networks What is a network?

When I have had the opportunity to visit fires- hang out of the ICP seeing leaders of the IMT, local forest, and cooperators..I see a network group of leaders who are interdependent have information they need to share and need information 18

Fire management

EvacuationsSheltering & Mass CarePublic InformationInteragency CommunicationsCost SharePoliticiansRoad ClosuresTHE WHO: Wildfire Incident Response as a Network ResponseIMT

20Whole Network as part of Performance 36%21Need To Think ABOUT an Incident in terms of the entire responder network

IMTImportant point here is that if your situational awareness is limited to just a subsection of the network such as those that are more central to ICS, you may not be appreciating how what is going on in your part of the network can impact or be impacted by things happening elsewhere

22IMT Performance

Evolution of imt role and local relationshipsIMT performance scores overall were goodRange between A little room for improvement to Some room for improvement

How did IMTS DO?

Good Team Player Acknowledging CooperationSharing Credit with Your AgencyStaying in Their Lane

Positive ambassadorServing as a Positive Ambassador in InteractionsAccessibleBeing Accessible to You

What areas did cooperators and host agencies view IMTs performing the best?26Appreciating local contextValuing local knowledge and local inputBeing sensitive to the local communityIncorporating information about local valuesObtaining and utilizing information about the local contextPro-active communicationIncluding your agency in info disseminationGetting your agency the info you need

Early engagement of affected jurisdictionsEngaging affected jurisdictions from the beginningFlexibility Being flexible in adapting their fire management strategy

Where did local cooperators and host agencies see the most room for improvement for IMT performance?IMT PerformanceCurrently in a coordinating model, but getting a signal from other groups that they would like a more collaborative modelHost Agency as network broker

IMT

Host AgencyLocal CommunityInformation about local values at risk, local context information (politics, culture, local values at risk, landscape), clear mission objectives who need to be in touch withHelp local communities learn how to interact with an IMT, what to expect from an Imt, and making those introductions29Host performance scores overall were very positive

How did Host Agencies DO in 2013?

Best PerformanceProviding effectively engaged Agency AdministratorsProviding up to date information on all pertinent media contactsDemonstrating familiarity with how IMTs operate

Greater Room for ImprovementGood maps of values at riskContact information for pertinent local cooperatorsLocations of residential populations that could be at riskHost Unit Performance

Key Finding:

The better the host agency performs as a broker the better the incident outcomes!Watch Out Situations

SOCIAL WATCH OUTS

Social Risk Assessment and Management: Tools you can use

Need to watch out for situations indicative of social risk2012/13 Interviewed 24 Fire Managers across 10 states646 years of large wildfire experience824 Type 1 Fires2013 AC/IC participants evaluated list2013 fire season surveyed for watch outs on 22 firesWatch Out Situations: What Did We learn?FINDINGS 2013:Key Watch Out SituationsSituations that > 50% of respondents identified as present on their incident

#1: Problematic Community Dynamics36#2: Agency administrator challenges37#3: Missing Cooperators38Significant Watchouts/Low local capacityMinimal Watchouts/High local capacityIMT ties to communitySTRONGModerateHigh Risk

Focus: leveraging team social capital to build local capacity

Lowest Risk

Focus: Strengthening relationships and working within existing infrastructureIMT ties to community WEAKHighest Risk:

Focus: Building relationships, learning local context and building local capacityModerate-low Risk

Focus: Building relationships and learning about local systems to be able to work effectively with them Assessing Social Risk: Considering IMT social capital 39Importance of developing broader situational awareness of incident response networks Utilizing metrics for performance on incidents that tap into management of networks and mitigation of social risk through pro-active communication and coordinationRecognizing the critical role of host agencies in helping to bridge between the IMT and the local community

Watch out for Watch out situationsWatch out clusters some kinds of risks happen together, Think about watch outs in relation to IMT social capital

Key Take AwaysWhat to do with this informationTraining? Venues for communication?

Discussion