BP Energy Outlook: transition to a lower carbon future · 2016. 12. 8. · BP Energy Outlook:...
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BP Energy Outlook: transition to a lower carbon future Fórum FGV Energia: Matriz e Segurança Energética Rio de Janeiro, 1/12/2016 Ivan Simões Filho VP Relações Institucionais BP Brasil
Transcript of BP Energy Outlook: transition to a lower carbon future · 2016. 12. 8. · BP Energy Outlook:...
BP Energy Outlook: transition to a
lower carbon future
Fórum FGV Energia:
Matriz e Segurança
Energética
Rio de Janeiro, 1/12/2016
Ivan Simões FilhoVP Relações Institucionais
BP Brasil
Growing population and GDP drives demand…
Other
Population
Billion
0
3
6
9
1965 2000 2035
Trillion, $2010
GDP
0
60
120
180
240
1965 2000 2035
China
Africa
India
Billion toe
Consumption by region
Transpo
rt
Other
Industry
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1965 2000 2035
Milh
are
s
OECD
Other
China
Other
Asia
Other
OECD
China
Source: 2016 Energy Outlook
The fuel mix is set to change significantly...
Source: 2016 Energy Outlook* Includes biofuels
Annual demand growth by fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994-2014 2014-35
Renew.*
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Mtoe per annum
Shares of primary energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 2000 2035
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear Renewables*
Growth in carbon emissions slows…but not completely
Source: 2016 Energy Outlook
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
% per annum
1994-2014 2014-35
GDP
CO2
Decline in energy intensity
Decline in carbon
intensity
Decoupling emissions growth from GDP growth Carbon emissions
0
10
20
30
40
1965 2000 2035
Non-OECD
OECD
IEA 450
Billion tonnes CO2
Faster transition to a lower-carbon world...
CO2-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994-2014
Renew.*
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Total
Base Faster
transition
2014-35
Annual demand growth by fuel
Mtoe per annum
Shares of Primary Energy
Source: 2016 Energy Outlook* Includes biofuels
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 2000 2035
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear Renewables*
Growing demand for gas….
Gas production by type and region
0
125
250
375
500
1985 2010 2035
OECD other Non-OECD other
OECD shale Non-OECD shale
Bcf/d
0
30
60
90
120
Non-OECD OECD
Transport
Other
Industry
Power
Demand growth by region
Bcf/d, 2014-35
Source: 2016 Energy Outlook
Material plays over the last decade….
Unconventionals
5
3
8
2
2
9
68
6
4
13
30
4
2# Discovered Volumes (bnboe)
Gas
Oil
Total hydrocarbons
discovered 2005-2015
Oil38%
Gas62%
Source: IHS, WoodMac, BP
66
163
2
Using technology to unlock new resources…
2011 2011 201120142011 2015
Improvement in subsurface definition
A diverse exploration portfolio for the future….
(1) Includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Morocco(2) Includes Australia, China and Indonesia
Deep water Oil
Gas
Conventional Oil
Unconventional
Asia Pacific2
Canada
Gulf ofMexico
Trinidad
Brazil
North Sea
Azerbaijan
Angola
North Africa1India
Oman
Source: BP estimates. Excludes Arctic
Russia
… and a variety of businesses in Brasil
