Bao Cao Xstk Nhom 7

8/4/2019 Bao Cao Xstk Nhom 7

1/17

Bi 1:

A. V d 3.4/161 SGKHiu sut phn trm (%) ca mt phn ng ha hc c nghin cu theo ba yu t: pH (A),

nhit (B) v cht xc tc (C) c trnh by trong bng sau:

Yu t A

Yu t B

B1 B2 B3 B4

A1 C1 9 C2 14 C3 16 C4 12

A2 C2 12 C3 15 C4 12 C1 10

A3 C3 13 C4 14 C1 11 C2 14

A4 C4 10 C1 11 C2 13 C3 13

Hy nh gi v nh hng ca cc yu t trn n hiu sut phn ng?

Phng php:PHN TCH PHNG SAI BA YU T

Bi lm:

Nhp d liu vo bng tnh

Thit lp cc biu thc v tnh cc gi tr thng k

Tnh cc gi tr Ti.., T.j., T..k v T...

Cc gi tr Ti..(tng cc hng trn bng d liu)

Chn B7 v chn biu thc =SUM(B2:E2)

Chn C7 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B3:E3)

Chn D7 v nhp biu thc=SUM(B4:E4)

Chn E7 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B4:E4)

Cc gi tr T.j.(tng cc ct trn bng d liu)

Chn B8 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B2:B5)

Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t B8 n E8

Cc gi tr T..k

Chn B9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B2,C5,D4,E3)

Chn C9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B3,C2,D5,E4)

Chn D9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B4,C3,D2,E5)


2/17

Chn E9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B5,C4,D3,E2)

Gi tr T

Chn B10 v nhp biu thc=SUM(B2:E5)

Tnh cc gi tr G

Chn G7 v nhp biu thc =SUMSQ(B7:E7)Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t G7 n G9

Chn G10 v nhp biu thc =POWER(B10,2)

Chn G11 v nhp biu thc =SUMSQ(B2:E5)

Tnh cc gi tr SSR, SSC, SSF, SST v SSE

Cc gi tr SSR, SSC, SSF

Chn I7 v nhp biu thc =G7/4-39601/POWER(4,2)

Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t I7 n I9

Gi tr SST

Chn I11 v nhp biu thc =G11-G10/POWER(4,2)

Gi tr SSE

Chn I10 v nhp biu thc =I11-SUM(I7:I9)

Tnh cc gi tr MSR, MSC, MSF v MSE

Gi tr MSR, MSC, MSF

Chn K7 v nhp biu thc =I7/(4-1)

Dung con tr ko k hiu t in t K7 n K9

Gi tr MSE

Chn K10 v nhp biu thc =I/((4-1)*(4-2))

Tnh cc gi tr F:

Chn M7 v nhp biu thc =K7/$K$10

Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t M7 n M9.


3/17

Ktqu v bin lun:

FR=3.10 chp nhn H0 (pH)

FC=11.95 >F0.05(3,6)=4.76 => bc b H0 (nhit )

F=30.05 >F0.05(3,6)=4.76 => bc b H0 (cht xc tc)

Vy ch c nhit v cht xc tc gy nh hng n hiu sut phn ng.

B. V d 4.2/170 SGK

Ngi ta dng ba mc nhit gm 105, 120 v 135C kt hp vi ba khong thi gian l 15,30 v 60 pht thc hin mt phn ng tng hp. Cc hiu sut ca phn ng (%) c trnh

by trong bng sau:

Thi gian (pht) Nhit (C) Hiu sut (%)

X1 X2 Y

15 105 1.87

30 105 2.02

60 105 3.28

15 120 3.05

30 120 4.07

60 120 5.54

15 135 5.03

30 135 6.45

60 135 7.26

Hy cho bit yu t nhit v thi gian/hoc yu t thi gian c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiusut ca phn ng tng hp? Nu c th iu kin nhit 115C trong vng 50 pht th hiu

sut phn ng s l bao nhiu?


4/17

Bi lm:

Nhp d liu vo bng tnh

D liu nht thit phi c nhp theo ct.

p dng Regression

Nhn ln lt n lnh Tools v lnh Data Analysis

Chn chng trnh Regression trong hp thoi Data Analysis ri nhp OK

Trong hp thoi Regression, ln lt n nh cc chi tit:

Phm vi ca bin s Y (input Y range)

Phm vi ca bin s X (input X range)

Nhn d liu (Labels)

Mc tin cy (Confidence level)

Ta u ra (Output range)ng hi quy (Line Fit Plots),


5/17

Cc gi tr u ra cho bng sau:

Phng trnh hi quy: x1=f(X1)

x1=2.73 + 0.04X1 (R2=0.21, S=1.81)

t0=2.129 < t0.05 = 2.365 (hay Pv2=0.071>=0.05) => Chp nhn gi thit H0

t1=1.380< t0.05 = 2.365 (hay Pv=0.209>=0.05) => Chp nhn gi thit H0

F=1.905 < F0.05 = 5.590 (hay Fs=0.209>=0.05) => Chp nhn gi thit H0

Vy c hai h s 2.73 (B0) v 0.04 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x1 = 2.73 + 0.04X1u khngc ngha thng k. Ni cch khc phng trnh hi quy ny khng thch hp.

Kt lun:yu t thi gian khng c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp.


6/17

Phng trnh hi quy: x2 = f(X2)

x2 = -11.141 + 0.129X2 (R2=0.76,S=0.99)

t0 = 3.418 > t0.05 = 2.365 (hay Pv2=0.011 > =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0

t1= 4.757 > t0.05 = 2.365(hay Pv=0.00206 < =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0

F= 22.631 > F=5.590(hay Fs=0.00206 < =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0

Vy c hai h s-11.141 (B0) v 0.129 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x2= -11.141 + 0.129X2u c ngha thng k. Ni cch khc phng trnh hi quyny thch hp.

Kt lun:yu t nhit c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp.


7/17

Phng trnh hi quy: x1,x2=f(X1,X2)

x1,x2 = -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2 (R2=0.97; S=0.33)

t0=11.528 > t0.05=2.365 (hay Pv2=2.260.10-5Bc b gi thit H0

t1=7.583 > t0.05=2.365 (hay Pv=0.00027Bc b gi thit H0

F=131.392 > 5.14 (hay Fs=1.112*10-5Bc b gi thit H0

Vy c hai h s-12.70 (B0), 0.04 (B1) v 0.13 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x1,x2=-12.7 +0.04X1 + 0.13X2u c ngha thng k. Ni cch khc, phng trnh hi quy ny thch hp.

Kt lun:Hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp c lin quan tuyn tnh vi c hai yu t l thi gianv nhit .


8/17

S tuyn tnh ca phng trnh x1,x2= -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2. C th c trnh by trongbiu phn tn (scatter plots):

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 2 4 6 8 10

Predicted Y

Predicted Y


9/17

Nu mun d on hiu sut bng phng trnh hi quy

Y= -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2

ch cn chn mt , v d nh:

F99, sau nhp hm=F96+F97*50+F98*115 v c kt qu nh sau:

Ghi ch: F96 ta ca B0 ,F97 ta ca B1,F98 ta ca B2, 50 l gi tr ca X1(thi gian)v 115 l gi tr ca X2(nhit )

Vy hiu sut phn ng theo d on 115C trong vng 50 pht l 4.3109%.


10/17

Bi 2:

Mt nh nng hc tin hnh vic kim nh hiu qu ca ba loi phn ny trn cc cy c chuav theo di s qu c chua mc trn mi cy. Kt qu thu c nh sau:

Loi phn

A B C

24

18

27

28

21

26

32

25

16

22

19

17

Vi mc ngha =5%, hay so snh s qu c chua mc trung bnh khi bn ba loi phn A, B,C ni trn.

Bi lm:y l bi ton phn tch phng sai mt yu t, s qu c chua mc trung bnh chu nh hng

bi loi phn bn.

Gi thit H0: 1 = 2 = 3; tc s qu c chua mc trung bnh l bng nhau

Nhp d liu vo bng:

p dng Anova: Single Factor

Nhn ln lt n lnh Tools v lnh Data Analysis.

Chn trng trnh Anova: Single Factor trong hp thoi Data Analysis ri nhn nt OK

Trong hp thoi Anova: Single Factor ln lt n nh

Phm vi u vo (Input range)

Cch xp xp theo hng hay ct (Group by)

Nhn d liu (Labels in fisrt row/column)

Phm vi u ra (Output range)


11/17

Bng Anova:

Kt lun:

T gi tr trong bng Anova:

F= 3.8557 < F= 4.2565 => Chp nhn H0

=> Lng qu c chua mc trung bnh khi s dng cc loi phn khc nhau l nh nhau .


12/17

Bi 3:

Bng sau y cho ta s liu v mu tc ca 422 ngi:

Mu tc Nam N

en

Hung

Nu

Vng

56

37

84

19

32

66

90

38

Vi mc ngha 3%, nhn nh xem liu c mi quan h giamu tc v gii tnh hay khng.

Bi lm:

Gi thit H0:Mu tc c lp vi gii tnh

T bng phn v 2khi bnh phng, ta c 34.111)-1)(4-(220.01 Nhp bng s liu nh hnh sau

Tnh cc tng s

+ Tng hng (ni):

Chn G2 nhp biu thc =SUM(B2:C2).

Dng con tr ko nt t in t G3 n G5.

+ Tng ct (mj):

Chn B6 nhp biu thc =SUM(B2:B5).

Dng con tr ko nt t in n C6.

+ Tng cng:

Chn D6 nhp biu thc =SUM(B6:C6) hay SUM(D2:D5).


13/17

Tnh tn s l thuyt da vo cng thc sau:

i j

ij

n m

n

Mu en

Nam : chn G2 ri nhp biu thc: =D2*B6/D6N : chn H2 ri nhp biu thc: =D2*C6 /D6Mu hung

Nam : chn G3 ri nhp biu thc: =D3*B6/D6N : chn H3 ri nhp biu thc: =D3*C6 /D6

Mu nu


Mu vng


Sau khi s dng vi Excel ta c bng s liu ij nh sau:

p dng hm s CHITEST

Tnh xc sut P(X>2

) bng cch chn G7v nhp biu thc =CHITEST(B2:C5,G2:H5).

Kt lun:Kt qu: P(X>2

) = 0,000247


14/17

Bi 4:

Kim tra sc khe ca 29 cng nhn nm phn xng ca nh my sn xut pin c quyngi ta o c mt nhim ch ca h nh sau:

S th tquan st

Mc nhn t

F1 F2 F3 F4 F5

12

3

4

56

7

0,250,28

0,32

0,22

0,22

0,220,25

0,24

0,28

0,310,21

0,22

0,250,26

0,28

0,25

0,220,28

0,31

0,310,33

0,30

0,29

0,25

0,220,28

0,28

0,25

0,30

Vi mc ngha = 1%,So snh mc nhim ch i vi cng nhn cc phn xng canh my ni trn.

Bi lm:

y l bi ton phn tch phng sai mt yu t.

Gi thit: H0: 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 = 5; tc mc nhim ch ca cc cng nhn 5 phn xngl bng nhau.

Nhp d liu vo bng:

p dng Anova: Single Factor

Nhn ln lt n lnh Tools v lnh Data Analysis.

Chn trng trnh Anova: Single Factor trong hp thoi Data Analysis ri nhn nt OK


15/17

Trong hp thoi Anova: Single Factor ln lt n nh

Phm vi u vo (Input range)

Cch xp xp theo hng hay ct (Group by)

Nhn d liu (Labels in fisrt row/column)

Phm vi u ra (Output range)Chn = 0.01

Bng Anova:

Kt lun:

T gi tr trong bng Anova: F=1.5828< F=4.2184=> Chp nhn H0.

Vy mc nhim ch ca cc cng nhn 5 phn xng l bng nhau.


16/17

Cu 5:Vi mc ngha = 2%,Hy phn tch vai tr ngnh ngh (chnh, ph) trong hot ngkinh t ca cc h gia nh mt vng nng thn trn c s bng s liu v thu nhp trung bnhca mt h tng ng vi cc ngnh ngh ni trn nh sau:

Bi lm:

1.C s l thuyt:y l dng ton phn tch phng sai hai yu t (khng lp):

( sch Gao Trnh xc sut v thng k Tc gi: PGS.TS Nguyn nh Huy phn ph lc trang154)

.Tnh ton trn my tnh:

Gi thit H0:cc gi tr trung bnh l bng nhau

i gi thit H1:cc gi tr trung bnh l khng bng nhau.

Nhp d liu vo my tnh:

p dng:Anova: Two Factor without Replication

a)Ti nhm lnh Data analysis, chn Anova:Two Factor without Replication.

b)Trong hp thoi Anova:Two Factor without Replication, ln lt n nh cc gi tr:- Phm vi u vo (input range): chn bng tnh ta va to.

-Nhn d liu (labels in first row/column)

-Ngng tin cy: Alpha = 2% = 0.02

-Phm vi u ra (output Range).

Ngh chnh Ngh ph

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Trng la (1)

Trng cy n tri (2)

Chn nui(3)

Dch b (4)

3.5

5.6

4.1

7.2

7.4

4.1

2.5

3.2

8.0

6.1

1.8

2.2

3.5

9.6

2.1

1.5


17/17

Sau khi click OK th ta c kt qu:

Kt lun:

FR = 1.9966 < Fcrit= 5.5097=> chp nhn gi thit H0 (ngh chnh).

FC= 0.1105 < Fcrit= 5.5097=> chp nhn gi thit H0 (ngh ph).

Vy, thu nhp ca gia nh ging nhau xt cho ngh chnh hay ngh ph.

Bao Cao Xstk Nhom 7

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